Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[CTHORANGE]

Sure, here you go.

WHAT IS EXPECTED SCORE?

Every shot on goal is analysed, based on where on the ground it was taken and how much pressure the player was under.

The expected accuracy of the shot is determined based on the results from that location and pressure level over the last decade of AFL matches.

What is expected score?

This is interesting and I would agree does have some validity, and the last month we have been appalling in front of the sticks.

But according to the article this stat doesn't take into account the individual skill level of the player taking the shot under x amount of pressure from whatever part of the ground. (assuming because that's not possible to represent statistically due to limited sample size of individual players). So a team who has more players who convert set shots and shots under pressure better than average would often do better than the expected score?

Perhaps we are just a team who has poor overall skills at converting set shots or shots under pressure. We certainly have had this issue at various times for a few years now. So maybe this stat is actually hiding some of our players poor skills around goals because it only assumes we should be doing better over the last few rounds.

To be really simple, if van Rooyen has a shot I'm expecting a goal, if Petracca has a shot I'm expecting a point. Maybe the ball is ending up in the wrong hands too often, which could be a structural issue.

 

[Lord Nev]

I agree with some of your points there's no doubt the effort is there, and that there seems to be scoring inefficiencies that could be fixed, however I feel that nothing has been done to address it. They had a whole preseason to fix it and we still have reverted to a defensive game that doesn't stack up anymore. We had a flat patch in 2021 but you could tell it was a flat patch due to the form we showed in the first half of the year. This year it feels more like a rot that has continued from 2022. It's just to see that it will just start to click. I hope I'm wrong of course but 5.15 suggest something more than a flat patch.

Yep, look there's things I'm not happy with in terms of coaching and selection - We seemed to have reverted to the more conservative midfield rotations, we stop and prop too often from 50-80 out for a 'chaos ball' heavy inside 50 team, we keep talking "forward connection" but then changing the forward setup every week, we've gotten slower with ball movement as the year has gone on - goal kicking isn't the only thing that needs fixing, but it's the one thing that if we can get it up to AFL average then everything changes IMO.

 

[Topkent]

This is interesting and I would agree does have some validity, and the last month we have been appalling in front of the sticks.

But according to the article this stat doesn't take into account the individual skill level of the player taking the shot under x amount of pressure from whatever part of the ground. (assuming because that's not possible to represent statistically due to limited sample size of individual players). So a team who has more players who convert set shots and shots under pressure better than average would often do better than the expected score?

Perhaps we are just a team who has poor overall skills at converting set shots or shots under pressure. We certainly have had this issue at various times for a few years now. So maybe this stat is actually hiding some of our players poor skills around goals because it only assumes we should be doing better over the last few rounds.

To be really simple, if van Rooyen has a shot I'm expecting a goal, if Petracca has a shot I'm expecting a point. Maybe the ball is ending up in the wrong hands too often, which could be a structural issue.

Plus when your team is doing a mountain of defensive work which we are now, it's possible and probably that they are so tired when it comes to taking the shots that it's effecting our accuracy.

 

[Lord Nev]

This is interesting and I would agree does have some validity, and the last month we have been appalling in front of the sticks.

But according to the article this stat doesn't take into account the individual skill level of the player taking the shot under x amount of pressure from whatever part of the ground. (assuming because that's not possible to represent statistically due to limited sample size of individual players). So a team who has more players who convert set shots and shots under pressure better than average would often do better than the expected score?

Perhaps we are just a team who has poor overall skills at converting set shots or shots under pressure. We certainly have had this issue at various times for a few years now. So maybe this stat is actually hiding some of our players poor skills around goals because it only assumes we should be doing better over the last few rounds.

To be really simple, if van Rooyen has a shot I'm expecting a goal, if Petracca has a shot I'm expecting a point. Maybe the ball is ending up in the wrong hands too often, which could be a structural issue.

The thing is:

First Nine Games +130 points on Expected Score

Next Five Games -62 points on Expected Score

So I'm not sure I buy the skill level thing. I think the current level is as unsustainable as the level we were at early on. We're a confidence team, get this back to level, doesn't have to be great, and we win more games.

And the fatigue issue raised above is a nonsense, otherwise our goal kicking would only be bad late in games yet it's bad from the first bounce currently. Also, it wouldn't explain the difference between the first 9 games and the last lot.

 

[BaliDemon]

“Expected score” what a load of bollox.

We’re 15 wins 14 losses from past 29 games with majority of wins coming against shit clubs, majority of losses coming against decent clubs.

Those are the only stats worth analysing.

 

[Daemon]

Sure, here you go.

WHAT IS EXPECTED SCORE?

Every shot on goal is analysed, based on where on the ground it was taken and how much pressure the player was under.

The expected accuracy of the shot is determined based on the results from that location and pressure level over the last decade of AFL matches.

What is expected score?

I think it's more than just accuracy but I appreciate that you back up your opinion with stats and reason.

 

[BaliDemon]

I think it's more than just accuracy but I appreciate that you back up your opinion with stats and reason.

Lord Nev uses ‘stats and reason’ the same way a modern gender studies professor does. Begins with a faulty premise then extrapolates bollox from there.

 

[Lord Nev]

I think it's more than just accuracy but I appreciate that you back up your opinion with stats and reason.

Absolutely, I'm not saying our only issue is accuracy, I'm just saying that if we fix that one area then we're a very very different team.

 

[SugarHealey]

The window officially shut when May belittled Melksham in front of other teammates for not playing in the flag … as well as Langdon’s “all duck no dinner” public pot of the Pies. Plus other less obvious incidences.

The fault of this arrogance and hubris lay squarely at the feet of Goodwin and to a lesser extent Gawn. Pathetic non-leadership and hardline instruction to players through the summer of 2021/22 to remain humble and respectful in both victory and defeat.

I think the things we did once, Pre success, can come back to haunt after success has been achieved.


The gus and gawny shows can become a weight, Re over-confidence, and lead to a more casual attitude. This can spread all over the whole off-field areas of the club.
Silently chipping away the sharper edges we once carried inside our desires.

A special part of the spirit which won us the 2021 flag was allowed to evaporate last year

It can be retrieved. But it will take some extraordinary efforts from our leaders with some hard honesty, and soul searching.


IF they don't, it can slide further down, quicker than a free falling bag of spuds.

 

[SugarHealey]

Couldn't agree more. Viney plays like a captain, but I think we all know the reason why he lost the role. Doesn't motivate those around him. Max is/was the perfect captain, a great mix of articulacy/grit/leading by example, but he is setting a putrid example right now.

Yes, But where has that Grit gone.

 

[SugarHealey]

Gawn has looked good when the momentum was good, but I think he is playing too nice with too much faith in ‘our best is a game away’.

Taken his eye off the prize. Going thru motions.

Much like Goodwin, the mindset seems to be the same. People were giving flack to May for jumping up and down when WC kicked 3 late goals and we won by 90 rather than 100+. It’s that sort of attitude we need; no prisoners and don’t drop the ball.

We need the harder edge back again.

Forward line is borderline incompetent and nudging atrocious. Brown and McDonald are simply done. We have no dynamism up there with some genuine passengers. Hard to critique smaller players with no forward target to hit up and crumb to. The solution right now is Petty. Plain and simple. Tomlinson has to play the third tall defensive role and I’d be putting Pickett in the guts or wing.

McVee May Tomlinson
Salem Lever Rivers
Hunter Viney Pickett
Petracca Petty Fritsch
Chandler Smith Spargo

Gawn Oliver Harmes

Sparrow JVR Bowey Grundy

Out - Brayshaw, Langdon, Brown
In - Spargo, Tomlinson, JVR

Rivers May Tomlinson
Salem Lever McVee
Hunter Viney Bowey
Pickett Smith Spargo
Petty JvR Fritsch

Gawn Petracca Oliver

Sparrow Harmes Grundy Chandler

Out - Brayshaw, Langdon, Brown
In - Spargo, Tomlinson, JVR

 

[SugarHealey]

We've lost to the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th sides. I got laughed at earlier in the season suggesting that we were a 5th-12th side and that missing the 8 is a real possibility. But i still feel that's exactly where we are at. Only team inside the top 11 that's playing worse than us are the Saints.

This is a sign of complacency in the leadership roles. On and off field. But mostly onfield.

Taken they're eyes of the things that got us up the ladder, from being also ans.

 

[SugarHealey]

The KPD hole is real now that Adams won't be ready for a year or more, if ever, on current VFL form. Really hope we aggressively target McKay

Our issue down back is lever couldn't stop a kite on a windless night.
We don't have a 2nd tall defender.

This causes us problems in our best team.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Our issue down back is lever couldn't stop a kite on a windless night.
We don't have a 2nd tall defender.

This causes us problems in our best team.

Petty is needed in two places right now. If we're not trusting Tomlinson to hold down Full Back, then Petty stays a defender, which leaves us short up forward. Tomlinson gets found out every now and then, but surely we just trust him now our forward issues are out of control. Petty forward just helps us more.

Too early to call on Adams and Jefferson. Both have shown glimpses, but nothing more. Both need size and experience. Year or more from impacting I reckon.

 

[The Dr]

Lord Nev uses ‘stats and reason’ the same way a modern gender studies professor does. Begins with a faulty premise then extrapolates bollox from there.

Bloody inner city left wing greeny types eh?


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[The Dr]

You know that's not what I have said. It's a bit embarrassing how you can't talk footy like a grown up. Your arguments get found wanting and you resort to this crap. Be better.

"there's no way that's right - got a link for evidence Lord Nev!?"

*Lord Nev provides evidence

"Better change the subject then ... You're still wrong!"




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[Topkent]

"there's no way that's right - got a link for evidence Lord Nev!?"

*Lord Nev provides evidence

"Better change the subject then ... You're still wrong!"




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Not quite what happened but you'll need that imagination to think goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side.

 

[Topkent]

The same champion data that Lord Nev bases every argument on has Brody Grundy as the AA ruckman

 

[The Dr]

Not quite what happened but you'll need that imagination to think goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side.

I don't think anyone has said that goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side. Nice imagination tho


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[Topkent]

I don't think anyone has said that goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side. Nice imagination tho


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Righto chief so I said goal kicking isn't out only issue, so what part of that do you disagree with?

 

[Lord Nev]

The same champion data that Lord Nev bases every argument on has Brody Grundy as the AA ruckman

LOL so all stats are not to believed now...

Hitting new levels TK. #keeppunching

 

[Lord Nev]

Not quite what happened but you'll need that imagination to think goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side.

Can you provide a link to where I said "goal kicking is the only thing making us a poor side"?

 

[Topkent]

LOL so all stats are not to believed now...

Hitting new levels TK. #keeppunching

Relax mate it's a joke not everything has to be taken so personally you can laugh once in a while. Champion data rates Grundy as the best in the comp. Think we can all agree that's stupid.

 

[Lord Nev]

Relax mate it's a joke not everything has to be taken so personally you can laugh once in a while. Champion data rates Grundy as the best in the comp. Think we can all agree that's stupid.

 

[Topkent]

You'll live alot longer if you don't make up personal vendettas in your head that dont exist.