Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[Bluelegs]

Thanks. So based on that it's basically Sydney then daylight.

 

[Lord Nev]

Thanks. So based on that it's basically Sydney then daylight.

Yeah, they really have a great balance to their game so far.

Obvs we preface that chart with saying it's just a data analysis of games so far - Doesn't guarantee future performance or take into account which teams everyone has played so far - But I still find it interesting in terms of measuring teams to this point against what premiership sides generally do well at.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

WHY DID WE TRADE THEM JAMES JORDON AND BRODIE GRUNDY

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

????????

Another for Tim Lame

 

[Bluelegs]

WHY DID WE TRADE THEM JAMES JORDON AND BRODIE GRUNDY????????

Another for Tim Lame

James 'Score Premiership Involvement King' Jordon

 

[markm106]

I kind of see the whole Oliver pre season issue as something that will hold us back. Peak Clarry and we are way better lances for the flag. Hopefully a big pre season for him. We’ll still have Gawn and May for a couple more years at least. Trac at his peak and JVR will get better. Chuck in Kozzy who continues to get better and some young players like Windsor Bowey McVee improving. And the window is open.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Is there a record of how often these ranking systems actually predict the flag winners?

If it's to be believed it would appear that the Dogs are underachieving quite a bit and Essendon are massively overachieving at the moment.

Anyway my favourite metric in there is 'Opposition Bounces'.

The Dogs have smashed the shit out of the teams they’ve beaten. Disappointing losses like Hawthorn might’ve also been relatively statistically even. Could explain them as an outlier.

Essendon’s results have been impressive but they’ve generally scrapped their wins and their loss to Port was woefully bad which might also explain their rating.

 

[Bluelegs]

The Dogs have smashed the s**t out of the teams they’ve beaten. Disappointing losses like Hawthorn might’ve also been relatively statistically even. Could explain them as an outlier.

Essendon’s results have been impressive but they’ve generally scrapped their wins and their loss to Port was woefully bad which might also explain their rating.

Dogs are doing what they always do tbh.

Essendons percentage is like 13th which is woeful for their position. Don't see them holding their form.

 

[Topkent]

Is there a record of how often these ranking systems actually predict the flag winners?

If it's to be believed it would appear that the Dogs are underachieving quite a bit and Essendon are massively overachieving at the moment.

Anyway my favourite metric in there is 'Opposition Bounces'.

Think the one they run with on the couch the little premiership predictor thing I forget what's called is accurate. All the premiers reside in that area which is the balance of scores and defence.

16 of 18 premiers have been in this window at the end of H/A

 

[Proper Gander]

Think the one they run with on the couch the little premiership predictor thing I forget what's called is accurate. All the premiers reside in that area which is the balance of scores and defence.

16 of 18 premiers have been in this window at the end of H/A

View attachment 1989296

This is to make it easier for the kids at home

 

[Topkent]

This is to make it easier for the kids at home

View attachment 1989341

You should start a lab of some kind.

 

[Proper Gander]

This is to make it easier for the kids at home

View attachment 1989341

Would be pretty informative

“In order to play better, the little red and blue Melbourne circle needs to go over a bit to the right”

 

[Topkent]

Would be pretty informative

“In order to play better, the little red and blue Melbourne circle needs to go over a bit to the right”

More detailed than our forward line instructions

 

[Proper Gander]

More detailed than our forward line instructions

I can get behind our forward line plan. When you see a red ball coming towards your head, turn and run away as fast as you can.

This is exactly what I would do under these circumstances

 

[Topkent]

I can get behind our forward line plan. When you see a red ball coming towards your head, turn and run away as fast as you can.

This is exactly what I would do under these circumstances

@baileyfritsch

 

[Johnny Karate]

We’re 28 wins and 20 losses from our past 48 games. BUT IF YOU EXCLUDE FINALS THAT GOES TO 28 WINS AND 16 LOSSES!

 

[Topkent]

Melbourne get the ball, they pass, pass, pass, pass.

No score

 

[schmuttt]

@baileyfritsch

Tbh when I saw JVR do it for the first time it made me so sad. This kid was flying for everything early last year and leading up the ground, now we’ve coached it out of him

 

[Crimson Azure]

Think the one they run with on the couch the little premiership predictor thing I forget what's called is accurate. All the premiers reside in that area which is the balance of scores and defence.

16 of 18 premiers have been in this window at the end of H/A

View attachment 1989296

WCE this weekend will skew this chart for us. Likely end up in the green.

 

[mrmonkey]

This is to make it easier for the kids at home

View attachment 1989341

Should just merge with gws

 

[Topkent]

Should just merge with gws

Wow, then I could like half the club!

 

[Topkent]

Tbh when I saw JVR do it for the first time it made me so sad. This kid was flying for everything early last year and leading up the ground, now we’ve coached it out of him

Tom Hawkins got 4 AAs after the age of 30 by simply being strong and leading at the kickers eyes. Insane how everyone else in the AFL is like nah that doesn't work get slim and run away from the kicker

 

[Bluelegs]

WCE this weekend will skew this chart for us. Likely end up in the green.

That chart only looks at team ranking which means you need to be in the top six for offense. To leapfrog into the top 6 we would need to kick more than the current differential plus whatever they kick this week.

Current PF is
1. Sydney: 913
2. GWS: 882
3. Dogs: 862
4. Carlton: 858
5. Geelong: 854
6. Port: 820
7. Collingwood: 795
8. Gold Coast: 758
9. Essendon: 739
10. Melbourne: 735

So we basically need to kick 85 points more than Port and hope Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon don't do the same.

We'd need to kick at least 160 for it to be any chance of happening.

 

[Topkent]

That chart only looks at team ranking which means you need to be in the top six for offense. To leapfrog into the top 6 we would need to kick more than the current differential plus whatever they kick this week.

Current PF is
1. Sydney: 913
2. GWS: 882
3. Dogs: 862
4. Carlton: 858
5. Geelong: 854
6. Port: 820
7. Collingwood: 795
8. Gold Coast: 758
9. Essendon: 739
10. Melbourne: 735

So we basically need to kick 85 points more than Port and hope Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon don't do the same.

We'd need to kick at least 160 for it to be any chance of happening.

160 gonna be tough, think we can manage 130 in the second half?

 

[Bluelegs]

160 gonna be tough, think we can manage 130 in the second half?

The dream would be a reversal of the 2013 game where Eagles give a standing ovation when they are ten points down at half time before we proceed to win by 100.

 

[Topkent]

The dream would be a reversal of the 2013 game where Eagles give a standing ovation when they are ten points down at half time before we proceed to win by 100.