Is playing too good early/peaking too early a big disadvantage?

[PerthBoy86]

A lot of discussion in the media of teams who peak too early and falter because maybe they can't maintain that form, injuries pile up etc, but there's also discussion about how Sydney playing so well leaves them vulnerable to teams figuring them out, becoming the hunted. I don't remember that being a major talking point in years gone by. Dominant sides like Essendon 2000 never seemed in doubt. Just knowing how they do it doesn't mean you can stop it. Is there something about the modern game that somehow makes this more applicable? Or is it just media talk?

 

[SuperSub17]

The answer to this is fairly simple - the media have goldfish memories and like to generate clicks.

History is LITTERED with teams who look unbeatable and then fall over in July/August/September.

Sure, there is the very occasional team like Essendon 2000…but who else has just coasted through and won without a challenge? Geelong 07 is probably the closest - but even then their poor start saw them take until round 11 to claim top spot (and then came perilously close to losing the prelim).

Top teams losing their way at some stage is usually the rule, not the exception.

 

[PerthBoy86]

The answer to this is fairly simple - the media have goldfish memories and like to generate clicks.

History is LITTERED with teams who look unbeatable and then fall over in July/August/September.

Sure, there is the very occasional team like Essendon 2000…but who else has just coasted through and won without a challenge? Geelong 07 is probably the closest - but even then their poor start saw them take until round 11 to claim top spot (and then came perilously close to losing the prelim).

Top teams losing their way at some stage is usually the rule, not the exception.

Yeah I think the minor premier usually doesn't win it all, but statistically not all that unusual. There have been sides who have been very dominant in the H&A season who faltered at the GF. Geelong 08, St Kilda 09, Collingwood 11, Sydney 16 come to mind. Richmond in the 18 prelim too. End of the day I'm not one to talk about any side being shoe ins for the flag (as some said of Sydney). Much more dominant sides have lost it on the gf, it all comes down to one game. Something as simple as inaccuracy or injuries can cost you. But yeah a case could be made losing a few can be good if you learn from it.

I think it partly what makes the 2000 Essendon side so remarkable. Were a Bulldogs flooding away from the only undefeated season in VFL AFL history.

 

[sydney_gws]

I don't think peaking early is a problem in itself, it just is partly as a result of a good run with injuries which can change over the course of a season.
I do think some sydney players heads got too big, namely Warner that probably cost them the St Kilda game.

 

[SuperSub17]

Yeah I think the minor premier usually doesn't win it all, but statistically not all that unusual. There have been sides who have been very dominant in the H&A season who faltered at the GF. Geelong 08, St Kilda 09, Collingwood 11, Sydney 16 come to mind. Richmond in the 18 prelim too.

Exactly, and you can throw in Hawthorn losing the 12 GF and Sydney in 14.

Geelong 19, Freo 15, Adelaide 06 all looked unbeatable midway through and then lost form, eventually losing a prelim.

Melbourne 22 started 10-0 and went out in straight sets.

West Coast 05 had a 4-game lead on top with 6 games left (having only lost 1 game to that point), and somehow didn’t finish first - lost the GF.

Port in 02 and 03 entered the finals red hot and amazingly lost both QFs. Adelaide 05 did the same.

Essendon 01 looked certain to go B2B and then ran out of steam late in the year.


Even the minor premiers who DID go on to win - most of them took top spot relatively late in the year (ie peaking at the right time):

Geelong 22 didn’t take top until they beat Melbourne in round 17.

Melbourne 21 had a mid-year flat spot and regained top in round 21, and didn’t secure it until a goal after the siren in round 23.

Collingwood 10 took top in round 16.

Geelong 07 took top in round 11.

West Coast 06 took top in round 20.

Port 04 took top in round 21.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Exactly, and you can throw in Hawthorn losing the 12 GF and Sydney in 14.

Geelong 19, Freo 15, Adelaide 06 all looked unbeatable midway through and then lost form, eventually losing a prelim.

Melbourne 22 started 10-0 and went out in straight sets.

West Coast 05 had a 4-game lead on top with 6 games left (having only lost 1 game to that point), and somehow didn’t finish first - lost the GF.

Port in 02 and 03 entered the finals red hot and amazingly lost both QFs. Adelaide 05 did the same.

Essendon 01 looked certain to go B2B and then ran out of steam late in the year.


Even the minor premiers who DID go on to win - most of them took top spot relatively late in the year (ie peaking at the right time):

Geelong 22 didn’t take top until they beat Melbourne in round 17.

Melbourne 21 had a mid-year flat spot and regained top in round 21, and didn’t secure it until a goal after the siren in round 23.

Collingwood 10 took top in round 16.

Geelong 07 took top in round 11.

West Coast 06 took top in round 20.

Port 04 took top in round 21.

I forget about 12 and 14, 14 in particular because the Hawks were so dominant in the grand final. Sydney are grand final chokers in the same field as Collingwood and St Kilda. Are 2 and 5 in GFs in the AFL era. A third gf loss in a row would be demoralising. And like us their last two gf wins were by close margins.

It does annoy me slightly we've only won 3 minor premierships when Port of all teams have won 4. Frittered a couple away. But it's a minor annoyance (no pun intended), no one remembers minor premiers. And maybe had we won we wouldn't have won the flag.

But yeah, there is evidence you can peak to early. I don't think teams NEED to have losses etc though, if you're good enough to just keep winning its better you keep winning.

 

[Run n Spread]

I don't know if it is a disadvantage (you still need enough winsfor top 4 /2) so much as it is a massive advantage to be running full steam ahead into September. But it's hard to quantify obviously you don't knock back early wins and playing silly buggers can mean you don't win enough or time is off.
Additionally going off the boil/taper training may mean you don't get form back. Pies last Rd in 11.
Also Melbourne after flying early in 2022 lost 3 before the bye but never got it back. Starting with being 5 goals up at half time and not putting a team to the sword.
Season is that long now thou that it's impossible to be up that long.
Timing momentum.is a funny thing

 

[And_ROOS]

Sydney now have a few injuries and a bit of a form concern, but they probably are very happy they banked the wins to lock top 4 in, and this wobble is happening now. If this was the last week of the season then you would be worried but the Swans have 4 games to make any changes, assess form and injury, guys in the reserves have time to prove themselves etc.

 

[kickazz]

Banking early wins lets you rest players at the end of the season.

So long as in doing so you don't completely exhaust your players or play ALL of your cards, I think starting a season well is still surely the best policy.

 

[And_ROOS]

Banking early wins lets you rest players at the end of the season.

So long as in doing so you don't completely exhaust your players or play ALL of your cards, I think starting a season well is still surely the best policy.

Geelong and Sydney had massive wobbles during the season after both had enough wins to nearly secure finals, let alone top 4, and as a result when they copped injuries/form slump it didn't derail their seasons.

Meanwhile Freo/Carlton copped injuries late in the season, causing Freo to miss finals and Carlton to barely fire a shot in an EF, and a bad form slump cost Essendon finals.

Its all good to say you need to peak right before finals, but you still need the wins to make sure you get there.

 

[Cleansweep17]

I’m not a big believer in form. There have been many times a team has had a streak of 5+ wins then get smashed the following game.

In regards to finals this is especially evident. Some players/teams can’t handle the heat.

I remember with us, our pressure game elevated in finals and Dusty stood up.

Geelong had a different style from 2012-2021 it was more kick mark and control and some of their best players flopped when it mattered most. Both these factors resulted in a lot of falling short of the final hurdles.

But in 2022 Geelong added some pace and pressure and Danger was a beast in finals. As a result they won the flag. It’s really that simple, not the “due for a loss fallacy”

 

[PerthBoy86]

I’m not a big believer in form. There have been many times a team has had a streak of 5+ wins then get smashed the following game.

In regards to finals this is especially evident. Some players/teams can’t handle the heat.

I remember with us, our pressure game elevated in finals and Dusty stood up.

Geelong had a different style from 2012-2021 it was more kick mark and control and some of their best players flopped when it mattered most. Both these factors resulted in a lot of falling short of the final hurdles.

But in 2022 Geelong added some pace and pressure and Danger was a beast in finals. As a result they won the flag. It’s really that simple, not the “due for a loss fallacy”

When I think of almost every premier I remember, the main thing that sticks out was they had an ability to both apply manic pressure and shut down the game and control it. They all did it slightly differently, but it started with rock solid defence and manic pressure. The defensive vulnerability of Brisbane, Port and Sydney at times has been worried. Geelong has faltered at times, but besides the St Kilda game they've looked the most solid down back in the later half.

 

[Cleansweep17]

When I think of almost every premier I remember, the main thing that sticks out was they had an ability to both apply manic pressure and shut down the game and control it. They all did it slightly differently, but it started with rock solid defence and manic pressure. The defensive vulnerability of Brisbane, Port and Sydney at times has been worried. Geelong has faltered at times, but besides the St Kilda game they've looked the most solid down back in the later half.

Yeah, that’s why I’m iffy on the Lions and I don’t think they’ll win tomorrow.

On paper they have the firepower but for some reason I’ve noticed not everybody fires at once often. It’s Hipwood one day, then Joe, then Cameron and the rest are kept quiet.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Yeah, that’s why I’m iffy on the Lions and I don’t think they’ll win tomorrow.

On paper they have the firepower but for some reason I’ve noticed not everybody fires at once often. It’s Hipwood one day, then Joe, then Cameron and the rest are kept quiet.

Maybe its due to system or lack thereof, as well as those individuals not being consistent. Accuracy, leading and winning contests is something neither of those 3 are consistently good at.