Is the draft really the great equilisation tool everyone has it cracked up to be?

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Feb 23, 2003
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I posted this on another thread but a) I think it deserves its own, and b) I didn't want to derail that thread.

I'd argue that the salary cap is in fact the great leveller and it's only because the draft and the salary cap came in around the same era that it's assumed the draft is the main reason. I like to compare it with the NRL that only within the last decade has brought back the salary cap.

The NRL comp is, for the most part, a lot more even. In 2007, no teams in the bottom half were more than 3 games out of the 8, with all teams bar one within 5 games of the top 4. In 2006 (15 team comp), teams 9-13 were no more than 3 games out of the 8, and 5 games off the top 3! In 2005 (15 team comp), teams 9-14 were no more than 3 games out of the 8, and 5 games off the top 4.

Contrast this with AFL. 2007 was a relatively even year, with teams 9-13 no more than 3 games out of the 8, and 5 games off the top 4. However in 2006 only two sides out of the 8 were within 3 games of the 8, and only three sides were within 5 games of the top four. And in 2005, only four suited both criteria.

They aren't massive numbers but they're consistent. With the exception of the years Souths have struggled this decade, 6-8 wins has been constant for the side finishing last! Imagine that in the AFL!

The reason why over the course of a year the NRL is generally more even is threefold. One, if injuries decimate a side they can select mature age players playing club football outside the NRL competition. Much easier for a Broncos to put a Shane Perry type into halfback a few years back, than it would be for a Richmond to have to rely on a young Adam Pattison type in the ruck all year. This means that although there's an obvious drop in the quality of a side if injuries hit, you can still field a physically capable side without having to blood players before they are ready.

Two, is that clubs can buy, at market price, players from other clubs in the off season to bolster weaknesses. Here in the AFL a trade would have to occur - which are becoming less and less prevalent as the years go on - and the club gaining the player will have to give up something also. It makes it difficult to rebuild a side over the course of a summer - it takes two, three, four years to "rebuild". NRL clubs still go through youth phases of course but because they can buy bit-part players from other clubs to guide them through they can still be very competitive. This is all backed by a salary cap that is stringently policed with hefty penalties for breaches to ensure that it's not just the "rich clubs" that continually prosper.

Three, and most importantly, there's no incentive to lose, so everyone at the club is completely behind sides winning. Sure, when a season's lost older players get surgeries and younger players are blooded, but the whole footy club including fans is 100% behind winning - without accusing them of throwing games, you can't tell me that all Richmond/Carlton/Melbourne fans as well as people around the footy club - club boards, support staff etc - were still treating winning as the most important thing? Most probably were but many would still have been happy to lose. In rugby league, you're fighting tooth and nail to the very end not only for pride but also to show prospective players you might seek out over the off season that the club is going somewhere.

The AFL system promotes cycles, the NRL system gives every side an even footing so that well-run clubs can prosper. That is true equality, true evenness. Clubs can't go out and buy a flag side as the salary cap impedes them from doing so, however they can easily and efficiently fix a hole in their squad immediately with someone who is ready to go. AFL clubs are hamstrung by a draft that forces them to wait 3 years to develop someone to possibly fix a need that might not be a need by the time the kid is ready to go. They're also hamstrung by increasingly shrinking list sizes that mean that if you're not in the club's best 25 you'd better be 20 or under or your days are numbered. Means if massive injuries strike you're stuffed because you can't build depth.

My solution is simple. Have an incredibly stringent and heavily policed salary cap, and a minimum age players can be signed. That's it. Players can be attracted to clubs by any means and at any time throughout the year as long as a contract is signed and their salary fits under the cap. Then we'll get sides fighting out til the end of the year and the real prospect that a side can go from being bottom dwellers to instantly competitive overnight, if the right players are recruited at the right time.

That the draft and salary cap came in at roughly the same time have made most believe that it's the draft that's the main equaliser. I'd argue it's the cap.

Just my two cents.
 
One criticism of this system is that it would make it very difficult for interstate clubs to recruit young guns. The draft forces players to move interstate but I think scrapping it would mean highly-rated players sticking with the clubs in their own states. This would significantly disadvantage Sydney and Brisbane.
Again comparing it to the NRL, you'd think the same would affect the Storm (even more so, in fact, as to the best of my knowledge zero NRL players hail from Melbourne originally, meaning all their players are from interstate). But it hasn't.

It would also mean they can develop kids who want to be in Brisbane from the start, and haven't been forced to go there with the intention of "coming home" down the line. So the years of development won't be wasted for the most part.

Of course, inevitably, there will be players wanting to "go home" to Melbourne etc - but you'd think there would be players wishing to go the other way and the Lions and Swans would be in monopoly markets for the cities!
 
I wouldnt have thought there'd be a lot of dispute that the draft wouldn't be worth shit unless there was a salary cap as well. So I guess as far as equalisation goes, i'd say the salary cap was more important. But if you think about what the situation would be without a draft - you'd have kids simply going to the clubs that can offer them the best deal - and that doesn't just mean money.

Apologies to Roos fans for using them as an example - but if you were someone like Kruezer (or any decent young player), and North started courting you by taking you on a tour of Arden St, which you then followed up with a tour of the Lexus Centre, you'd have to deadset have rocks in your head to sign with North. The poor clubs with shite facilities would only attract the dregs.

NRL is a different culture - players routinely sign with other clubs and no-one bats an eyelid. You have players signing with opposition clubs halfway through a bloody season. If someone at my club did that, regardless of who it was, i'd demand they be immediately dropped to the WAFL and not get a game for the rest of the year.
 

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I wouldnt have thought there'd be a lot of dispute that the draft wouldn't be worth shit unless there was a salary cap as well. So I guess as far as equalisation goes, i'd say the salary cap was more important. But if you think about what the situation would be without a draft - you'd have kids simply going to the clubs that can offer them the best deal - and that doesn't just mean money.

Apologies to Roos fans for using them as an example - but if you were someone like Kruezer (or any decent young player), and North started courting you by taking you on a tour of Arden St, which you then followed up with a tour of the Lexus Centre, you'd have to deadset have rocks in your head to sign with North. The poor clubs with shite facilities would only attract the dregs.
I agree that it sounds quite a problem in theory but I'd suggest it wouldn't be so much of a problem in practice for two reasons. One, is that we don't see players desperate now to leave a North Melbourne type side simply because of the facilities. Whilst there is obviously a degree of loyalty that wouldn't come into the decision making of a Kreuzer type, I'd suggest that the success and culture of a side would have more to do with the decision than simply the facilities. At least, that'd be the case in kids you'd want to have at your club.

Two, is that Collingwood couldn't assemble a list of the best young kids because they'd have to pay market rates for them. If you're 18 and being offered $80k to play somewhere with pretty facilities but no room to move in the salary cap, or $150k to play somewhere with less facilities but with the room to afford an increase if you succeed with the first contract, I'd imagine most would go for the increased opportunity.

NRL is a different culture - players routinely sign with other clubs and no-one bats an eyelid. You have players signing with opposition clubs halfway through a bloody season. If someone at my club did that, regardless of who it was, i'd demand they be immediately dropped to the WAFL and not get a game for the rest of the year.

Eh, it's happened before - it was fairly common knowledge blokes like Hall, Everitt, Judd etc were leaving before the end of the last season at their former clubs. Whilst I'd be loathe to see the June player swaps happen in the AFL, I'd doubt them happening for the reason you stated - the culture is different and the players would be lynched by their own supporters. Dealings will still take place behind closed doors but I'm sure that's happening now.

I'd doubt Carlton's talks with Judd's management didn't start until after the Eagles' season was finished.
 
Interesting thread

Some random thoughts

(I can't respond to the NRL stuff coz even after 20yrs in NSW still can't quite get my head around it)

- I am staggered that there is not an inforced say 10% of cap that ought be mandatory performance based eg get into the finals and progressively receive the rest. Topical subject tankin... make sure it hurts each players hip pocket to turn in poor performance why should Richmond be paid the same amount as Geelong in 2008? ( yes i know they got extra game bonus but insignificant)

- Someone responded recently with similar comment

Here is the (a) ladder since all current teams have been in the comp the last 11yrs

Team Finals Bottom 4

(Top down)
Sydney* 9 0
WCE 9 2
Crows 7 1
Port 7 1
Kangas 7 1
Lions 7 2
Cats 5 0
Brisbane** 7 2
Ess 7 3
Melb 6 3
Dogs 5 2
Saints 5 3

Compare

(bottom up)

Rich 1 4
Freo 2 5
Blues 3 5
Hawks 3 5
Coll 4 5


Interesting notice where the Premiers come from!!!. NOT the teams that have had priority picks and high draft picks! ( asterisk Syd & Bris because of extra cap and leg up re Fitzroy remnant.

Momentum/ winning attitude, having good coaching , and team culture, with a solid team structure is MUCH more important than accumulating high picks. (eg Goodes 43, O'loughlin 50's?, Kirk rookie, several others in the 30's)

The only teams that seem to have gained any tangible benefit out of high number of early picks are Coll & Hawks and question remains do they have the mix of mature stars and superstars .....to inspire the young guns to achieve their potential??????? Has it helped Carlton or Richmond? But Judd will make a difference!

Which group will likely have the bottom 4 again in 2008????

2 cents!:)
 
Good thread. :thumbsu:

I agree for the most part.

The media would love it too. Imagine all the shit they could make up about players that are going to move/get or not get new contracts/etc. :D

The moving mid season stuff is easy to fix. You just do what soccer does and have a transfer window over summer. Players can't swap team registration except in that period.
 
You cant compare League with Aussie Rules. Afew weeks ago the Brisbane Broncos bearly beat a team called Redcliff which i can only assume is a team in a state league. Can anyone even imagine the best VFL side getting anywhere near any AFL team?
 
I wouldnt have thought there'd be a lot of dispute that the draft wouldn't be worth shit unless there was a salary cap as well. So I guess as far as equalisation goes, i'd say the salary cap was more important. But if you think about what the situation would be without a draft - you'd have kids simply going to the clubs that can offer them the best deal - and that doesn't just mean money.

Apologies to Roos fans for using them as an example - but if you were someone like Kruezer (or any decent young player), and North started courting you by taking you on a tour of Arden St, which you then followed up with a tour of the Lexus Centre, you'd have to deadset have rocks in your head to sign with North. The poor clubs with shite facilities would only attract the dregs.

Thats not how it works in a draftless system though. Youre still thinking about it from an AFL perspective where 18 year olds arrive on the market unattached to any club. That only happens in the AFL because of the draft.


Having bad facilites is a disadvantage for a club, but its only ever one factor amongst many when a player actually gets to choose where he plays.
A good young player might want to play for the Kangaroos because its the team they grew up supporting or because its their local team, or because they like the coach. If the Kangaroos are desperately in need of that particular type of player he might sign there because he's guaranteed to play first grade immediately. Maybe he'd be a Kangaroo just because a kangaroo talent scout signed him up in his mid teens before any other clubs had noticed him.

There are NRL teams that complain about difficulty attracting players because of their facilities, or not being near a beach, or being based in a remote city, or whatever. The fact of the matter is the salary cap system works beautifully and despite complaints, this decade no team been out of the finals for long.
- Except of course for the Rabbitohs, but that was because they were a club on the verge of total collapse. Once Russel Crowe took over and brought them stability, they managed to sign some big name players and made the finals last year.
 
Agree with the OP. The salary cap is the most important way of ensuring fairness. The draft system rewards failure. Why should a badly managed/ badly coached/tanking club be rewarded. If a club is consistently at the bottom of the ladder replace them.
 
Draft priority should be modified so that a team can get top 4 picks (ie finish in botom 4) only 2 years running. AFter that they are put square in the middle of the draft order. this prevents a grossly mismanaged/tanking club from getting ridiculous high draft picks year after year and then becoming an almost unbeatable team, like what happened with Brisbane and is in danger of happening with CArlton. the draft should equalise teams, not hand lowly teams flags on a platter as soon as they get a half-decent coaching team. that makes the competetion just as lop-sided as having no draft priority and a scenario like Hawthorn in the 80's that was a black hole for most of the best recruits.
 
Draft priority should be modified so that a team can get top 4 picks (ie finish in botom 4) only 2 years running. AFter that they are put square in the middle of the draft order. this prevents a grossly mismanaged/tanking club from getting ridiculous high draft picks year after year and then becoming an almost unbeatable team, like what happened with Brisbane and is in danger of happening with CArlton. the draft should equalise teams, not hand lowly teams flags on a platter as soon as they get a half-decent coaching team. that makes the competetion just as lop-sided as having no draft priority and a scenario like Hawthorn in the 80's that was a black hole for most of the best recruits.

How many top 4 picks have Brisbane had since 1998?
 

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The draft is an equalisation tool, and it would work if they did away with trading. Some clubs are lower ranked because they make silly administrative decisions, and poor trading is also problem for them.

Players wishing to leave clubs should have to enter the draft like everyone else.

Combine that with a singular draft (no pre-season or rookie; all players in one), having 'compensation' picks for any AFL player re-drafted (literally the next pick goes to his former team); and all players (or even just the experienced ones) the ability to negotiate/demand their salary prior to the draft starting; and you have the basis of a very good system.

Add strict enforcement on the Salary Cap, provide discounts for long-term service of players, and there you have it.
 
Combine that with a singular draft (no pre-season or rookie; all players in one), having 'compensation' picks for any AFL player re-drafted (literally the next pick goes to his former team); and all players (or even just the experienced ones) the ability to negotiate/demand their salary prior to the draft starting; and you have the basis of a very good system.

Add strict enforcement on the Salary Cap, provide discounts for long-term service of players, and there you have it.

I forgot to add doing away with the father-son rule. That is also a rule that has given some club tremendous benefits over others. All players should have to take their luck in the draft, whether their fathers played AFL or not.
 
I wouldnt have thought there'd be a lot of dispute that the draft wouldn't be worth shit unless there was a salary cap as well. So I guess as far as equalisation goes, i'd say the salary cap was more important. But if you think about what the situation would be without a draft - you'd have kids simply going to the clubs that can offer them the best deal - and that doesn't just mean money.

Apologies to Roos fans for using them as an example - but if you were someone like Kruezer (or any decent young player), and North started courting you by taking you on a tour of Arden St, which you then followed up with a tour of the Lexus Centre, you'd have to deadset have rocks in your head to sign with North. The poor clubs with shite facilities would only attract the dregs.

NRL is a different culture - players routinely sign with other clubs and no-one bats an eyelid. You have players signing with opposition clubs halfway through a bloody season. If someone at my club did that, regardless of who it was, i'd demand they be immediately dropped to the WAFL and not get a game for the rest of the year.

Maybe at the moment. But when the $12m redevelopment is completed, I'm sure it would be a different story.
 
Agree with the OP. The salary cap is the most important way of ensuring fairness. The draft system rewards failure. Why should a badly managed/ badly coached/tanking club be rewarded. If a club is consistently at the bottom of the ladder replace them.
The salary cap is just a farce as well.
How many LCD big screens and Mercedes Benz's had Koutifides been loaned over the years?Being told to bring them back for a new one whenever you are ready.
 
The salary cap, if uniform, prevents accumulation of a super list at the top end but does little to fill lists at the bottom end. It also leads to over payment of the poorer lists because those clubs have a set salary target and by and large they meet it regardless of merit. Richmond’s list would probably have been paid the same as St. Kilda’s who finished 9th and close to the same as Geelong’s. Probably exactly the same but for finals allowances that go into the cap limits. In a general context that is good for the rich and bad for the poor if you look at capacity to pay as the AFL set the dividend at a point that has some clubs below the AFL poverty line.

The draft does allocate the talent and that does help even out lists as the poorer performing teams get better access to the top end talent. However it enshrines up and down cycling and becomes self perpetuating. Carlton did not fall away due to draft penalties. They were at the bottom before that. They fell away as much as anything because they stretched their time at the top end of the ladder and didn’t have the quality youth coming onto the list. Ignoring the penalties, they faced a period of drafting at the bottom of the ladder to restock.

Is the competition more even? I keep hearing it is yet most years we have 2 to 3 teams being so poor they qualify for priority picks. The 13th team can start the draft with pick 7 and the 9th team then ends up with pick 11. Financially, the big clubs remain a lot wealthier than the rest. I don’t see how evening out success if that is the aim of equalisation, can change those relativities. I’ve said this before but Hawthorn were the last team able to change their club with sustained success. Their 70s to 90s success grew their supporter base and they leapfrogged a number of teams. I can’t see anyone else being able to do that now.

The bigger question is whether you want equalisation. Be careful what you wish for. The wrestling can be amusing light entertainment but would you really who won and lost?
 
The salary cap, if uniform, prevents accumulation of a super list at the top end but does little to fill lists at the bottom end. It also leads to over payment of the poorer lists because those clubs have a set salary target and by and large they meet it regardless of merit. Richmond’s list would probably have been paid the same as St. Kilda’s who finished 9th and close to the same as Geelong’s. Probably exactly the same but for finals allowances that go into the cap limits. In a general context that is good for the rich and bad for the poor if you look at capacity to pay as the AFL set the dividend at a point that has some clubs below the AFL poverty line.

The draft does allocate the talent and that does help even out lists as the poorer performing teams get better access to the top end talent. However it enshrines up and down cycling and becomes self perpetuating. Carlton did not fall away due to draft penalties. They were at the bottom before that. They fell away as much as anything because they stretched their time at the top end of the ladder and didn’t have the quality youth coming onto the list. Ignoring the penalties, they faced a period of drafting at the bottom of the ladder to restock.

QUOTE]

Wrong, Mark. What it does mean is that every player gets paid what he is worth. The 'ratchet effect' whereby a player's salary goes up but never down has disappeared from Rugby League. Fringe players at a top club get recruited by bottom clubs and make a difference. It's a different sort of game, Rugby League, but the bottom line is that the very careful monitoring of the salary cap - someone with no other task than that - without a draft has certainly had the effect of 'sharing' the spoils.

The big minus for aussie rules would be the wholesale moving of players from club to club. This increases the 'franchise' effect that many on this board (and others) lament already in the AFL.

On the other hand, one other benefit that the AFL might appreciate is that the two expansion clubs could be up and operating from day 1, provided that had the cash to do so. They could be signing up players as they come off contract for the two years prior to their entry into the competition and just begin as a normal team round 1 2010. No need for special drafts or concessions.
 
The salary cap is just a farce as well.
How many LCD big screens and Mercedes Benz's had Koutifides been loaned over the years?Being told to bring them back for a new one whenever you are ready.
This is the problem. There would need to be a ridiculous level of scrutiny, which the AFL has shown no intention of doing. FFS they can't even manage drug tests properly, how are they going ot manage audits?
 
Wrong, Mark. What it does mean is that every player gets paid what he is worth.
I’d say that some players get less than they deserve due to the cap – J. Brown for one – and some get much more than they deserve – 50% of Richmond’s list that have come off drafting contracts for eg. Forgetting finals for a moment Geelong’s list should have been paid at least 50% more than Richmond’s either due to performance incentives for 2007 or bonus payments in 2008 as a result of 2007 performances. While I am as against Brisbane’s salary cap concessions as anyone, their list did deserve more money than any other based on performance. The problem with them getting it is that cap prevents others recruiting to match them.
On the other hand, one other benefit that the AFL might appreciate is that the two expansion clubs could be up and operating from day 1, provided that had the cash to do so. They could be signing up players as they come off contract for the two years prior to their entry into the competition and just begin as a normal team round 1 2010. No need for special drafts or concessions.
The AFL will allow the new teams to sign players who come off contract anyway. In the past they have offered draft compensation for the club that loses players – Lloyd to Essendon and I think Wirpunda to WCE for eg. Whether the AFL do the same this time around remains to be seen but you can bet the new clubs will be able to sign uncontracted players. I hope Eddie is making sure we stitch every one up we want to keep while leaving the door open to a few fringe players coming off contract in case the rules will give us picks as compensation.
 
Is the competition more even? I keep hearing it is yet most years we have 2 to 3 teams being so poor they qualify for priority picks.
The paradox is the more even you make a competition the more disparity you get in the results.

If teams are equal in terms of talent spread, then other factors are going to have more of an influence on results than they would have had with a disproportionate spread of talent.

If everyone starts with an equal distribution of talent (if this could be measured), it will be issues like injury, preparation, coaching & tactics that make the difference. A loss of a few key players or tactics to negate them has much more influence on your ability to win if you’re up against a team of equal talent.

Equalisation is giving everyone an equal opportunity to succeed and not as you’d like to believe a system to apportion success.
 
Of course its a great equalisation tool. Any club will find it hard to stay at the top for any period of time. The Brisbane Lions were a unique situation. The problem might be at the bottom end: some clubs don't have the scouts to identify the best talent or the coaches to best develop those players. The AFL can only do so much in that area. Its up to those clubs to do their research and get better in those areas. I mean clubs like Carlton, Richmond etc have taken all the best kids from recent years so if they can't develop those players and win with the best youngsters its their own fault.
 
A Salary Cap alone is a great equalisation tool. There is no way the Lions,Eagles and now cats could have kept their super lists together. Other clubs would be lining up the snare their guns as soon as their contracts expired. Their market value would have increased to a point where collectively it exceeded the salary cap. It would get to a point where Geelong would have to choose between Ablett and Bartel, WCE choosing between Judd and Kerr. Clubs with capacity under their cap ("usually" the ones on the bottom) would have the avaliable cash to buy them.

I am an Eels fan. We have one of the best junior bases in the game. We breed a lot of the competitions best players but cannot keep all of them due to the Salary Cap. All clubs benefit and the comp as a whole benefits.

As a fan of both codes i definatley prefer the NRL way.
 

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Is the draft really the great equilisation tool everyone has it cracked up to be?

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