Is the game all about value?

[yogibbear]

Rnd 1:

Final side:

Shit... imagine if I started Kennedy, Bugg and Magner on the field in Round 1.

 

[West123]

Initial squad means even less this year. You could flip your entire starting team in the first half of the season.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeh your right West. Still something a bit different that in all my time year hasnt really been thought of even if im doing it incorrect.

Your right i said in another thread i think that there will be 10 trades used to fix teams or to make them the very best possible. As no one will be upgrading/downgrading in the first 5 rounds with rookies.

That means for plenty of mistakes.

 

[West123]

If you want to put time into something go with this;

- How much dollars have been generated.
- How can you make that many dollars but with high scoring players.

You might find that by simply riding underpriced premiums and jumping off at the top of the roller coaster you can make as much cash as flipping rookies. This means you still get the cash but have higher scoring.

 

[toxic]

Okay having a blonde day (maybe its Sharapova driven) - how do i access my 2012 dream team sides?

 

[dylan123]

Okay having a blonde day (maybe its Sharapova driven) - how do i access my 2012 dream team sides?

http://dreamteam.afl.com.au/?p=index&not_logged_in=true

 

[toxic]

Okay it was my 3rd year of DT -
RD1
Backs:Adcock, Malceski,Delidio, Hargrave,Golby, Broughton, Ellis, Bugg,Morris
Mids: Ablett, S Thompson, Rockliff, Magner, A Swallow, Devon Smith, Clay Smith, Chad (spud) Wingard
Rucks: Cox, Mumford, Giles & Reden
FWDS: Franklin, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Sidebottom, J Riewoldt, A Kennedy, T Dickson, A Hall, B Smedts

Rd finish:
Backs: Delidio, Scotland, Goddard, Adcock, Broughton, Heppell, Sam Shaw, Lee Spurr, Sam Darley
Mids: Boyd, Ablett, S Thompson, A Swallow, L Hayes, T Rockliff, M Pavlich, M Baguley
Rucks: Cox Mumford, Giles, Redden
Fwds: Dangerfield, Sidebottom, franklin, Chapman, Zorko, Treloar, J Riewoldt, N Fyfe, H Crozier

overall rank about 14,500th ( a vast improvement from previous year)

over to you keystone for the value etc etc

 

[Jars458]

Starting Team

DeledioGoddard Clarke Bugg B Smith R Hargrave Ellis Paine Darley
AblettSwanRockliff Gibbs Parker Magner Shiel Leger
CoxMumford Giles Redden
Franklin Ffye Zakarakis Dangerfield Martin Porplyzia D Smith A Kennedy Dickson

Finishing Team - Rankded 10 852.

DeledioGoddard M Johnson Carazzo BirchallHeppell S Shaw Clarke Mohr
BoydAblettSwanThompsonRockliffMurphy Gibson Couch
CoxSandilands StepehsnonRedden
BeamsDangerfieldSidebottom S JohnsonChapmanFranklinZorko Trelor Paine

OUT Robinson ($397,400) IN Johnson ($427,000)
OUT Griffin ($349,400) IN Sandilands ($378,600)
ROUND 18
OUT Gibbs ($382,000) IN Murphy ($384,000)
ROUND 16
OUT Bugg ($253,900) IN Birchall ($420,700)
OUT Hargrave ($304,200) IN Couch ($85,800)
ROUND 15
OUT Martin ($382,200) IN Carrazzo ($373,000)
ROUND 13
OUT Giles ($354,900) IN Griffin ($350,100)
OUT Ellis ($224,500) IN Johnson ($419,500)
OUT Smith ($282,800) IN Thompson ($484,600)
ROUND 12
OUT Sexton ($161,400) IN Shaw ($104,200)
OUT Zaharakis ($429,100) IN Gibson ($85,800)
ROUND 11
OUT Horsley ($308,700) IN Chapman ($490,700)
ROUND 10
OUT Magner ($297,000) IN Robinson ($451,900)
OUT Porplyzia ($314,600) IN Sexton ($98,700)
ROUND 9
OUT Kennedy ($204,300) IN Boyd ($546,600)
OUT Greene ($354,800) IN Zorko ($104,200)
ROUND 8
OUT Shiel ($280,000) IN Beams ($505,900)
OUT Mumford ($452,400) IN Stephenson ($98,700)
ROUND 7
OUT Smith ($274,600) IN Heppell ($438,400)
OUT Parker ($344,100) IN Horsley ($119,800)
ROUND 5
OUT Dickson ($98,700) IN Treloar ($104,200)
ROUND 4
OUT Fyfe ($450,000) IN Sidebottom ($429,300)
ROUND 3
OUT Darley ($104,200) IN Mohr ($115,800)
OUT Ledger ($163,200) IN Greene ($134,700

 

[Falchoon]

My trading must have been shitty?

Rank 15k

HeathSCOTLAND -4.0
StevenMORRIS 37.8
BrianLAKE 24.7
TomasBUGG 47.3
HeathSHAW -9.7
MitchellGOLBY 20.1
BrandonELLIS 34.7

BradEBERT 37.1
MatthewBOYD -0.8
ScottTHOMPSON -3.8
JohnMCCARTHY 20.1
GaryABLETTjnr 12.5
JamesMAGNER 44.7

SamJACOBS -0.5
JonathanGILES 58.1

PatrickDANGERFIELD 31.2
DevonSMITH 43.8
DustinMARTIN -4.6
JasonPORPLYZIA 36.1
ToryDICKSON 47.9
LanceFRANKLIN -0.5
AdamGOODES -16.8
455.3

 

[Keystone agony]

Just to add something else, with my thinking

Last years winner avg 2185 (everyones aim is to win or would really like to win whether its a wish or dream)

We have a salary cap i believe of 9139000

So far my fanplanner team has an avg of 110k for the 8 bench (non scoring players) totalling 880k

$9139000-880 = $9138120 (on starting 22 initial squad)

The magic number this year is i believe is about 5151 (So $5151 per point based on 2012 avg)

$9138120/$5151 = 1774 (If everyone keeps to there 2012 avg based on price thats what you will score each week with the above permitting)

2185 (last years winning avg difference) - 1774 (points you start with each week if everyone maintains to 2012) = 411 (points you need to make up per week from the right initial squad selections or trading

As you can see with some of the results they were close to 411 last year, although im if i follow the trend more and more points are needed just about every year and with the increased trades im sure a much bigger improvement will be required. 411 would be the minimum but likely gain you a very good result anyhow.

411/22 (starting players that score) = 18.7 (if you can find 22 players that rise by that or on avg you will be doing very well. So maybe those midpricers priced at 70 that re going to go to a 90 avg will be worth it or arnt they?

EDIT: To add further to the numbers analysis and add a little bit of perspective. 9138120/22 = $415 370 per player

$415370/5151 (Magic number) = a 80.6 avg player. So you could potentially buy 22, 80.5 avg players and if your good enough (highly unlikely not saying i am or anyone is) can find that 18.7 point rise in all those players than you will do very well.

Next: Ill look at how many players actually increased their avg by more than 18.7 in 2012, ones that arent rookie typed price. This should give perspective into the likely hood of how many you could pick and how confident you can pick them.

 

[Keystone agony]

Next: Ill look at how many players actually increased their avg by more than 18.7 in 2012, ones that arent rookie typed price. This should give perspective into the likely hood of how many you could pick and how confident you can pick them.

Bump

So ive finally done this and excluding rookies there were about 45 players who started early in the season round 1 or 2 that increased their avgs by more than 15 and actually played most games in 2012 i think Walker was the least with 16 from memory.

Amazing that Tuck sits as one of the best picks in DT for 2012, who saw it coming? no one im guessing

Hes only behind Maric, Porps and L.Jetta and he played every game unlike Porpz.

Just trying to keep everyone wide eyed and open minded to doing something different then the boring guns and rookies, im trying to lead the way and create diversity which should come with this if people buy it.

 

[footylover18]

The game is still about value. I have written an article talking about the concept of value in the draft style leagues. Hope it makes sense:

As someone who has played many American fantasy sports over the years, I have looked forward to the day that draft style leagues became widely available to the masses. This year the official dreamteam game includes the option of participating in a draft league. For those of you unaware of what a draft league is, head over to www.dreamteamtalk.com to get down with the basics.

Let’s be clear about one thing, it is extremely difficult to do well in a draft league if you stuff up your draft, if you dominate your draft you will go a long way to dominating your league.

Doing well in traditional dreamteam has always relied on value. Be they rookies, underpriced players or discounted players, the key to any successful starting squad has never been Dane Swan or Dean Cox but rather getting your rookies right and including a number of underpriced players that then allow you to stack the rest of your team with the guns. Draft dreamteam is no different, however instead of looking at a players price to determine what their value is, we look at how well they score and subsequently where we should take them in the draft.

The conundrum that many are facing right now as they prepare for their draft leagues is the question of how to compare players who play in different positions. How do we compare Pendlebury to Buddy? Comparing apples and oranges is never easy, however in draft leagues a decision must be made in every round on who you are going to pick. When it’s your turn to pick, how will you know whether to take Pavlich or Stanton? Most people will simply draft the player with the highest average, this approach however does not take into account the most important factor in draft leagues and that is positional scarcity. Given the lack of 100+ average players in the rucks, is Sandilands more valuable than Boyd even though Boyd averages more? The answer, not taking injury risk into account, is an emphatic yes.

Around 15 years ago a system was created in Fantasy NFL (American football) that allowed people to be able to compare apples with oranges. The system was called “Value Based Drafting” (VBD). VBD was to Fantasy NFL what “moneyball” was to Major League Baseball. It allowed those that were aware of it to operate on a different wavelength to their competitors leading to great success. The fundamental principle of VBD is that a players value to your team is not about how many total points he scores but more importantly it’s how many points he scores relative to other players who play in the same position.

The trick to drafting a great team is to not blindly draft the player with the highest average but to view your team as a position by position battle against your opponents. You may be feeling very happy with yourself after round 6 if you’ve drafted a wonderful six pack of great midfielders. Your team wont look so great after round 12 if you’re stuck with Ben Hudson and Dean Brogan as your two rucks, whatever advantage you gained by drafting mids straight up will be lost thanks to your below average ruck corp. Positional scarcity must be taken into account when drafting.

So how does the VBD system work? It’s easy, but it takes a little bit of work. The steps are as follows:

1. Predict the Dreamteam average of all players who are likely to be taken in the draft
2. Work out what your “baseline” average is for each position
3. Work out the “value above baseline” number (X number) for all players you projected for in step 1

I’ll go through each of these steps.

Predicting dreamteam averages
It seems like a lot of work, but it’s not really. First you need to know how many players you need to project for. This can be easily calculated by knowing your league size and your league settings. If your league starts 6 midfielders and you have 8 people in your league then there will obviously be a minimum of 48 mids drafted. Your job is to then go and work out who will be in the top 48 mids for the season and then rank them based on the predicted average you assign to each of them. That’s not easy of course. In a similar fashion, decide how many forwards, backs and rucks you need to project for

Workout what your baseline number is for each position and the X number
This is the key part of VBD. Remember the principle of VBD is to not worry about total points scored but how many points a players scores relative to others in his position. The baseline number is determined by working out who will be the worst starter at each position. This relies on knowing what the average is for the worst starter in each in position. This will easily be found once you complete the first step. So in the example used above, you will want to know what the average is for the 48th highest scoring midfielder. Going by last years stats, the 48thth best DT midfielder (excluding dual position players) averaged approximately 90ppg. So, going by last years statistics the worst starting midfielder throughout the league will be averaging around 90ppg. Do the same process for each position, ie, work out what the worst starter in each position is averaging. So in a league of 8 teams starting 5 backs, 6 mids, 2 rucks and 5 forwards you will need to work out what the average is for the 40th best backman, the 48th best midfielder, the 16th best ruck and the 40th best forward etc.

Once you have done this you will be able to work out the baseline player/number for each position and then the X number for every player you have projected for. The worst projected starter in each position is assigned the number 0. Each player above that player will be given a positive number compared to what the baseline player’s average is projected to be. So for example, if the 48th best midfielder is projected to average 90 then a midfielder who averages 105 will be given an X number of 15 (105-90). A player who averages 120 will have an X number of 30 (120-90). So as you can see, every player is being compared to the baseline player whose X number is 0. Every player’s value is highlighted by how much better they are than the worst starter in the same position. Do the same exercise for each position.
So your spreadsheet will have all your predicted averages for every starter (40 backs, 48mids, 16rucks, 40 forwards) you will then be able to see what the baseline number is by seeing what the worst starter in each position averages and then you can easily work out the X number by comparing each players average to the baseline player in that position.

As it is you still have your players ranked by position. Once you have worked out the X number for each player you can then combine all the players across the positions and rank them by their X number. You will then have a ranking of players based on their value not merely a ranking based on their average. You will then be able to compare apples with oranges. You will see that a ruckman averaging 100 for example may be more valuable (have a greater X number) than a midfielder averaging 110.

The system is obviously not perfect. It may be better to use total DT points scored over the season rather than averages, that way injury risk can be taken into account. It also doesn’t take into account the effect of a captain, a concept that doesn’t exist in Fantasy NFL.

It’s important to also know when to deviate from your ranking system. It’s no good selecting your 8th midfielder if you have yet to select a backman for example. Don’t just draft for value, draft for positional need and also draft to avoid bye week disasters.

The system requires a bit of home work but if implemented properly, with a good set of projections, you will go into your draft with an understanding of how to build a team through the draft that most of your league competitors will not.

 

[Keystone agony]

Great post FL18 im glad my thread brought out a quality post like that.

That relates mainly to the draft leagues with your post however still some of it holds principle to the real game.