Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[Do the Dew]

Not much of a myth when you’ve beaten only one top 8 side away from the mcg in 2 years.

Well from 2017/2018 top 8 there's only 4 teams (Crows, GWS, Port, Eagles). Lost to crows twice (early 2017/2018 when they were flying/hungry for revenge), GWS twice (both times by a kick), Port once (2 goals with no Dusty before their wheels fell off), once to Eagles (too good + dodgy early 3rd qtr free kicks . Selective stats are great. When you play certain teams has the biggest impact on result, and we've been a bit unlucky with some of the above


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[bh90210fan]

Well from 2017/2018 top 8 there's only 4 teams (Crows, GWS, Port, Eagles). Lost to crows twice (early 2017/2018 when they were flying/hungry for revenge), GWS twice (both times by a kick), Port once (2 goals with no Dusty before their wheels fell off), once to Eagles (too good + dodgy early 3rd qtr free kicks . Selective stats are great. When you play certain teams has the biggest impact on result, and we've been a bit unlucky with some of the above


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You missed losing away to Geelong too, but anyway there is a pretty glaring contrast between your mcg form and form interstate. Playing a gf at the mcg is a large advantage for you, it’s obvious.

 

[Do the Dew]

You missed losing away to Geelong too, but anyway there is a pretty glaring contrast between your mcg form and form interstate. Playing a gf at the mcg is a large advantage for you, it’s obvious.

Potentially, only seen the 1 in my lifetime. Crows actually started very well too and were leading at qtr time, something that is conveniently forgotten


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[Dazzler9]

No because because people are really dumb when coming up with these arguments.

Do people really think WC get to the G an go **** the grounds 3metres different and forget where to stand? It's ******* nonsense.

The home ground advantage comes from the crowds. WC is so supreme because it's the furthest for VIC teams to travel so less away supporters.

If they split the tickets for your ground like they did the MCG on GF day an had 40,000 corporates and 10k each for WC an the opposition team the home ground advantage would completely disappear.

Prelim finals at home have a huge advantage, GFs do not.

Garbage. Crowd support helps, no doubt, but home ground - dimensions, familiarity, etc. - play a massive part.

Are you suggesting that if half the crowd on preliminary final day were Melbourne supporters, that the Eagles would've had no home ground advantage? Tosh

 

[Topkent]

Garbage. Crowd support helps, no doubt, but home ground - dimensions, familiarity, etc. - play a massive part.

Are you suggesting that if half the crowd on preliminary final day were Melbourne supporters, that the Eagles would've had no home ground advantage? Tosh

The home ground advantage would be minimal yeah, it's been proven scientifically that home ground advantage is mostly to do with crowds influencing umpires.

Do you really think your players are stupid enough that they can't adapt to a ground that's a couple metres different in size?

 

[Dazzler9]

That old myth. We copped probably the 4 hardest road trips in football - Adelaide, WC, Port, GWS. Sydney couldn’t win at home and the other 3 were cellar dwellars so I’d say that’s about right.
We got smashed away twice - once by the eventual premier, and once by a team out for revenge.
We lost another two times away - both of these we had opportunities and didn’t take them. I wouldn’t put that down to the ground. We faced opposition that were able to overcome us.
We also got fairly smashed at the G last time we played there.
We also didn’t drop a game at Docklands - which of course, since we won them, you’ll claim isn’t away, but there were A LOT of people predicting us to lose to Sydney simply due to the ground.
We also absolutely pantsed GC away - I doubt we’d have won by more in Melbourne.

Hang on Harry. You won all your games at the G but lost 4 interstate games. But you're saying none of that had anything to do with playing away? So it was just a coincidence. hmmm, k

 

[Dazzler9]

The home ground advantage would be minimal yeah, it's been proven scientifically that home ground advantage is mostly to do with crowds influencing umpires.

Do you really think your players are stupid enough that they can't adapt to a ground that's a couple metres different in size?

I disagree. Crowds a factor, sure. But so too is the ground. Yes, size matters!

 

[Topkent]

I disagree. Crowds a factor, sure. But so too is the ground. Yes, size matters!

If you can produce a stat that shows mcg teams kick a bunch of goals from around the boundary because interstate sides can't see the line is a further 4 metres away I'll believe it.

You can argue that staying in hotels and being on the road is a factor itself but the crowd makes all the difference. If it was 90% Melbourne fans at Optus oval it would be a home game for us

 

[Do the Dew]

I disagree. Crowds a factor, sure. But so too is the ground. Yes, size matters!

Ground size definitely matters, affects structures and setup. Geelong is the best example, longer and much narrower ground that even most really good teams struggle to adapt to. Glad we don't have to play there again


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[Dazzler9]

If you can produce a stat that shows mcg teams kick a bunch of goals from around the boundary because interstate sides can't see the line is a further 4 metres away I'll believe it.

You can argue that staying in hotels and being on the road is a factor itself but the crowd makes all the difference. If it was 90% Melbourne fans at Optus oval it would be a home game for us

Western Derbies are roughly a 90/10 split and it makes zero difference to the results in those games, even when the sides have been roughly evenly matched.

 

[Dazzler9]

Ground size definitely matters, affects structures and setup. Geelong is the best example, longer and much narrower ground that even most really good teams struggle to adapt to. Glad we don't have to play there again


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Well said. We're living in a post-truth world when anyone argues that dimensions don't effect how a side plays.

 

[gavaniacono]

According to the Victorian Australian Football League, home ground advantage doesn't exist, but will manifest only from 2057.

 

[Underarm]

Of course it is for MCG tennants. The home and away season is weighted in favour of interstate sides though.

 

[Furn2]

Compared to playing away at an interstate teams ground its pretty huge.

When there's been really good non vic sides they've been almost unbeatable at home.

So while I think the G is closer to a neutral ground on gf day than it is in a normal game, it's not close to the challenge of playing interstate.

Of course if there was ever a gf away from the G the ticket allocation would be more neutral too.

 

[Young Gun #6]

The home ground advantage would be minimal yeah, it's been proven scientifically that home ground advantage is mostly to do with crowds influencing umpires.

Do you really think your players are stupid enough that they can't adapt to a ground that's a couple metres different in size?

Show us the scientific proof that home ground advantage doesn’t mean much for AFL outside of umpiring being influenced by fans..

 

[Carringbush2010]

Do we really need another thread on this? The question will not be answered, all this will achieve is the continual roundabout to end up at square one again containing petulant childish trolling back and forth.

There are mainly two sides to this argument and neither side will concede. Pointless!

 

[FRUMPY]

It's an advantage, but I'd dispute the 'huge' bit.

The MCG would be the smallest 'home ground advantage' in the comp.

What is clear from examining the stats though is that non Vic teams have an overall advantage across the H&A period, meaning they finish higher at the end of H&A, and thus get more home finals, and as a result an easier path into the GF.

So which would you prefer...making more GFs and having a harder game when you get there (as non Vic clubs get), or a harder run to make the GF, but an advantage on the day (which Vic clubs get)?

Would you rather play the eagles at the MCG or Domain Stadium on grand final day? There's your answer

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Well from 2017/2018 top 8 there's only 4 teams (Crows, GWS, Port, Eagles). Lost to crows twice (early 2017/2018 when they were flying/hungry for revenge), GWS twice (both times by a kick), Port once (2 goals with no Dusty before their wheels fell off), once to Eagles (too good + dodgy early 3rd qtr free kicks . Selective stats are great. When you play certain teams has the biggest impact on result, and we've been a bit unlucky with some of the above


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Let's not talk about 2016 at Manuka?

 

[faible]

From memory - a few of the footy stats websites have done articles over the years - there is a home ground advantage, but it's closer to the 1 goal region than anything else.

Most often the better team on the day will win, so maybe Fremantle 2013 (between poor kicking and Hawthorn being an actual MCG home team) is the only one in recent times that would have been effected by it, all other games have been by such large margins it's likely the winner would have won anywhere else they played.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

From memory - a few of the footy stats websites have done articles over the years - there is a home ground advantage, but it's closer to the 1 goal region than anything else.

Most often the better team on the day will win, so maybe Fremantle 2013 (between poor kicking and Hawthorn being an actual MCG home team) is the only one in recent times that would have been effected by it, all other games have been by such large margins it's likely the winner would have won anywhere else they played.

Awww cmon

There's no data that shiwsahime ground advantage in finals. As opposed to the H/A season.

Now we're quantifying it in number of goals?

 

[Do the Dew]

Let's not talk about 2016 at Manuka?

Last 2 years*
I put 2016 out of my mind for good


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[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Last 2 years*
I put 2016 out of my mind for good


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I wish I could get Tigerland out if my head from the 2017 PF.

 

[simmo97]

From memory - a few of the footy stats websites have done articles over the years - there is a home ground advantage, but it's closer to the 1 goal region than anything else.

Most often the better team on the day will win, so maybe Fremantle 2013 (between poor kicking and Hawthorn being an actual MCG home team) is the only one in recent times that would have been effected by it, all other games have been by such large margins it's likely the winner would have won anywhere else they played.

"
you have completely discounted how the 2 completing teams over recent years have perform at home and on the road which shows your statement of it's likely the winner would have won anywhere else they played is a poor one.

 

[faible]

Awww cmon

There's no data that shiwsahime ground advantage in finals. As opposed to the H/A season.

Now we're quantifying it in number of goals?

I'm not, the footy statistics writers are. Yes they use H&A data as part of the aggregate, but the MCG doesn't suddenly move or change dimensions between the H&A season and finals.

https://squiggle.com.au/how-the-fixture-screwed-st-kilda/ is probably one of the better articles on the vagaries of the fixture, and he mentions the HGA section in there.

 

[faible]

"
you have completely discounted how the 2 completing teams over recent years have perform at home and on the road which shows your statement of it's likely the winner would have won anywhere else they played is a poor one.

You're saying Adelaide shitting the bed on GF day would have been completely reversed in Adelaide? That's a 48 point turn-around, an unlikely margin to attribute to HGA.