Jai Newcombe vs Chad Warner

[Elmer_Hauser]

This is all that needs to be said.

You can't go wrong with either of them really.

I actually didn't expect them to both be top 10 in the overall coaches votes for the season (including finals) when I started this thread.

Genuine A grade midfielders when we start 2025. Would love to see them against each other in a big final next year.

Both were also not picked in the high end of the national draft either (Jai a midseason rookie draft pick from Box Hill)

Always good to see stars of the game not drafted in the first round, Newcombe's success is testament to being bit of a late developer and hard worker, hard to believe Warner fell to 39 in his draft year though
.
It's no coincidence that Sydney and Hawthorn are excellent at developing young players and draftees (aside from the occasional disappointment, but no club is perfect)

 

[Blackhawk42]

Browlow votes

Newcombe 24
Warner 23

This is the player comparison that keeps on giving.

 

[.Shotties.]

Browlow votes

Newcombe 24
Warner 23

This is the player comparison that keeps on giving.

My friend, look at the Swans players around Warner's mark and then look at the Hawthorn players anywhere near Newcombe.

 

[HawthornHawk]

My friend, look at the Swans players around Warner's mark and then look at the Hawthorn players anywhere near Newcombe.

I tried but all i could find was this

 

[.Shotties.]

I tried but all i could find was this
View attachment 2119937

Oh, well just above you'll see that there were two Swans midfielders polling 25 votes plus each. Hard to stat pig or collect individual awards votes when you're one of three

 

[grimlock]

I mean if Warner started getting 3 votes for a 16 disposal 4 clearance game he would be on a Cripps level tally

0 coaches votes for Newcombe in that game

 

[Blackhawk42]

My friend, look at the Swans players around Warner's mark and then look at the Hawthorn players anywhere near Newcombe.

Wasn't a dig, or a brag about Newcombe.

These two just ending up close together in many ways!

I definitely expect Duke to poll more though. Brownlow has gotten a bit silly.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I mean if Warner started getting 3 votes for a 16 disposal 4 clearance game he would be on a Cripps level tally

0 coaches votes for Newcombe in that game

Also, was this the Freo game???

Top disposal winner on the whole ground only had 24. Duke had 16, a goal and 8 tackles. He had a big say that day. Seen worse 3 voters if I'm honest.

 

[.Shotties.]

Wasn't a dig, or a brag about Newcombe.

That's fine. I was providing context that Warner shares the midfield with players who poll highly in individual awards.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

That's fine. I was providing context that Warner shares the midfield with players who poll highly in individual awards.

It works both ways of course. In that it's easier to poll votes in better team/teams that win more often, it's also easier to play well in a good and dominant team/midfield and he's received less attention from taggers as a result of having good quality midfield teammates.

The easier to play well in a dominant team is underscored by Warner's significant downturn in production when Sydney had their poor patch.

Either way, the point remains that these two are pretty evenly matched (53-52 in career BL votes now) so anyone who thinks it's "insert player easily" is off the mark.

 

[.Shotties.]

It works both ways of course.

Yes, but this is something that seems to have escaped you when discussing individual stats and votes. It's easier to pump your numbers when the load isn't being split amongst other high numbers players. If Newcombe played in Sydney's midfield his numbers across the board would probably be lower rather than higher.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yes, but this is something that seems to have escaped you when discussing individual stats and votes. It's easier to pump your numbers when the load isn't being split amongst other high numbers players. If Newcombe played in Sydney's midfield his numbers across the board would probably be lower rather than higher.

Thank you, but it didn't escape me. I think their numbers indicate they are comparable, regardless of any 'what if' scenrios. I personally don't agree with your conclusion that if they swapped clubs, Newcombe's totals would likely be less. I think if anything, the opposite is more likely to be true and here is my reasoning:

Warner has played in 54 wins in his career so far, whereas Newcombe has played in only 33.
Earning Brownlow votes in wins is far, far easier than in losses. This is well evidenced by the fact that 46 of Warner's 52 career Brownlow votes have come in wins (basically 90%). When your team averages approximately an extra 7 wins a year, you have far more realistic chances to earn votes, regardless of stronger teammates.

This is further evidenced well by going back through the Brownlow over the years and noticing that the majority of winners come from top 4 teams (often with multiple good mids) and the vast majority come from finalists, with only the rare exception (and even then it is guys like peak Ablett and peak Fyfe that have bucked the trend).

As such, I reckon if they swapped teams, Newcombe's career BL vote tally would likely go up rather than down. Regardless, it is beside the only point I have been making - which is that they are pretty even at this point in time.

 

[Cringle]

I think Warner’s type is harder to find.

His acceleration and agility is outrageous.

Newcombe as good as he is - probably isn’t as rare.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I think Warner’s type is harder to find.

His acceleration and agility is outrageous.

Newcombe as good as he is - probably isn’t as rare.

Newcombes type is hard to find to an extent and just looking at a type is interesting. Lachie Neale is a gun top level, but an extremely common type. Newcombe is going to be very good and with his power, explosiveness and especially the pure strength, this makes him hard to stop. You then look at his damage on the inside and outside with his ability forward (strong overhead and crumbing), he is truly scratching the surface at the moment, he has a lot more to give as a forward and consistently through the middle.