Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[Unique Name]

Who's it going to be?


I have this sinking feeling it's going to be Suma.

 

[Sully90]

Have we cooled off on Blake Caracella?

I think he's cooled on the idea of coaching from memory.

 

[88mph]

Scott was gifted a premiership level list.

Sounds like he's the man for the job then.

 

[King Huskii]

I must say it’s an interesting decision by the club to post this article. They are in for a busy year if every bit of scuttlebut from the media has to be formally responded to like this in a club website piece.

Words mean nothing right now, the only way they can truly show they are behind JL is to extend his contract immediately. If they are not going to do that (appears clear they aren’t at this point), then better off saying nothing instead of making Jakob Waddell feel important about himself.

I believe words do mean something. JLOis uncontracted at the end of the year and they may seek a new coach if they feel he underperforms. This doesn't mean they are considering a replacement currently. It's preseason and a club would be in turmoil if they don't want their coach.

I definitely think this is baseless regardless of whether JLO receives a contract extension or not.

 

[Freomaniac]

From memory was Neesham our only coach who went into a season without a contract for the next year?

If so we all know how that went and if we underperform you can expect the same result. Feel like Jlo is was asleep at the wheel coming into 2023 and was too conservative for too long.

He won’t make that same mistake twice and no stone will be left unturned throughout the year. Even though I prefer Scott, can see Jlo getting more out of the team and winning a final.

Reckon we are in Scotts ear and as far as I know he’s unsigned. It might be a wait and see for both parties.

Scott is a legacy man. He’s done it at Lions and Cats. Being that first premiership coach of Freo. Immortal..absolute immortal.

Chris Scott as freo coach would be good

 

[Freomaniac]

It's not as simple as that. An experienced coach also brings structure and vision to a club and how it operates. We have very few things in place that are operating at the optimum level. Media, player retention and assistant coaching are all areas that need to improve. Experienced coaches can impact those things.

I agree...

Look at the Freo Years before Ross Lyon from 1995-2011. Finals in 2003, 2006 and 2010. I can remind everyone about the Chris Connolly era of 2002-7. We should of done way better than just make finals in 2003 and 2006.

Ross Lyon proves If your team has a half decent list and a solid coach, your team will make finals. Mark Harvey was never gonna get Freo to a grand final.

 

[Freomaniac]

I don’t think we’ll see much more goals from Frederick or Switta tbh, however that’s largely due to the role they play further away from goal.

I actually think both play their current roles better than most but I don’t think they’d be overly great at playing a genuine small forward role. Switta is 27 next year and tbh I see Simpson as more of his long term replacement - Simpson can hit the scoreboard but he’s more a midfielder than a forward.

We probably need two talls hitting 40+ and two smalls hitting 30+. I’m comfortable enough that Jackson and Frederick can get around 25-30 as well but they’d both be serious players if they could get much more than 30 goals for a season.

A 40+ KPF instead of 2023 Treacy is an extra a goal a game. Forward line wise we’d just need to replace Schultz and Walters. I don’t think Sturt is incapable of replacing 2023 Walters in terms of goals imo - unfortunately there’s a fair gap between other parts of Schultz’ game and what I see Sturt as capable of tbh. He’s a long way done on pressure - I can’t see Sturt having games like Schultz did at times where he got 20+ touches and 2-3 goals either.

We need 3-4 goals a game out of the midfield and other non-forwards imo. We barely averaged over one goal a game from non-forwards in 2023.

A lot of the issues with lack of goals from non-forwards is to do with our slow ball movement/lack of run etc. It’s on Longmuir and his coaching team to fix this and if the players aren’t capable of doing making the tough calls needed to make it happen.

This sounds about right....

Dockers when they made finals in 2022, kicked 79 points a game or 11.13.79 on average.

I say dockers need to get back on their 2014-5 goal scoring standards of 12 goals a game. So that means 7 or 8 goals comes from the forward line and 4 or 5 goals a game comes from the midfield.

 

[Docker82]

This sounds about right....

Dockers when they made finals in 2022, kicked 79 points a game or 11.13.79 on average.

I say dockers need to get back on their 2014-5 goal scoring standards of 12 goals a game. So that means 7 or 8 goals comes from the forward line and 4 or 5 goals a game comes from the midfield.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 9 or 10 goals from a group of seven forwards tbh.

The issue is if you're only getting 1 or 2 goals from elsewhere, then 9 or 10 goals from forwards isn't enough. But it probably should be.

We scored 96 more points in 2023 than 2022 for the home and away season. With gather round there was an extra game but we were still very similar scoring wise both years. It was always a weakness for us.

 

[BStaff17]

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 9 or 10 goals from a group of seven forwards tbh.

The issue is if you're only getting 1 or 2 goals from elsewhere, then 9 or 10 goals from forwards isn't enough. But it probably should be.

We scored 96 more points in 2023 than 2022 for the home and away season. With gather round there was an extra game but we were still very similar scoring wise both years. It was always a weakness for us.

We kicked 100 points more times last year then 2022.

 

[Taylor]

Is there an easy data collection on how many games were played in rain?

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I am not sure we can claim a strong culture and be discussing the players not following instructions.

I have helped businesses where I was told the culture was strong. Everyone said it was amazing etc. Everyone also did whatever they wanted and didn't respond to feedback.

Culture has to be measured by agreed KPI's. Otherwise it is misused for weak or tyrannical leaders.

Our slow starts are an example. We need to fix our first quarter issues.

Were all the employees 20 something’s with no prior work experience?

 

[Freomaniac]

Brodie couldn't defend his square. Neale chopped him up so horrendously you could see he was going to fail as an AFL mid.
Corbett wasn't part of the plan at all. He didn't even play round 1.
Depending on Banfield? C'mon man. 14 games. He's fringe. There's no 'depending' at all here.
Devoid of goal kickers? Schultz, Amiss, Freddy, Walters are all known goal kickers.
Hughes didn't last in a wing. It was trialed and JL moved on. Henry went to that wing - pretty sure you know that though.
Predictable game plans win games. It's pretty well known. Eg Collingwood.

If will Broadie couldn't cutbit at AFL level, explain his 2022 season? Averaged 27.4 disposals a game

 

[Freomaniac]

Improvement which will take us to finals.

When you dig beneath vic media reporting you see 10 wins in 2023
A 3 point loss to the lions and the north game which was stolen by the umps and the non deliberate call.

We had improvement from young serong Jackson amiss

we had huge improvement in scoring
three consecutive 100pt games for the first time in 10 years
5 players with 22 goals + which won our goalkicking in 2018.

One thing JL can’t be questioned on is his player development.
Every bnf winner in JL tenure has been drafted this rebuild.
His got high draft picks firing AB Sebba Amiss Young.
He’s got late picks playing elite football Freddy Ryan Schultz
And got the best out of ring in journeymen lobb acres Aish.

We need to fight back against the dirt sheets and be positive.
There was so much to like in 2023
We have so much to look forward to.
If a big vic team or growth area had a team with 2 rising star winners and 8 other rising star noms in positions all over the ground the last 3 years they would be championing a dynasty in the future.
Yet we are portrayed as a team with no direction and limited hope.

We have an amazing coaching group
We will succeed we will win a our first flag before the decade is over.

I wish I had your confidence.

Especially that bit about getting a flag by the end of this decade

 

[poshman]

Were all the employees 20 something’s with no prior work experience?

They had recently brought in their largest group of new grads (13). Admin staff and HR were bitchy and didn't want things to change. And there were family members and friends in roles they weren't qualified/competent enough to succeed in.

Not an unusual situation.

 

[freo1]

Chris Scott as freo coach would be good

One of the best things of us acquiring Ross Lyon, was that it showed a level of ruthlessness (fairly) which finally gave us a level of respect in the comp, and showed that we were happy to mix it with the big boys - ultimately this decision flowed onto the level Ross conducted himself, his coaching style and on-field success. This decision also aligned with Ross's personality. I loved those several years of ruthlessness the club created, for once we were respected and even feared. We had a slight aura of powerhouse about us, we wouldn't take a backward step to anyone, on and off the field.

Right now I see us as quite a few steps back from that, we're "too nice", boring on and off the field. I dont see any level of hardness and ruthlessness about us which in my belief is what you need to lift the cup. Serong and maybe Young are the 2 guys I see display that hardness that inspires. They need a serious and ruthless leader to complete their leadership.

For me, if the club were to be putting in the work now to obtain Chris Scott, this would be a fantastic move. It would again show ruthlessness. I also look at Chris Scott as a ruthless competitor - he's strong at the top, fiercely defends and leads his players and club. Chris Scott leading our young team from 2025 would have many similarities to when RL came on board, although our list would be more advanced and ready to challenge. If it's not to be Chris Scott, I really dont see any other candidates that'd be worthy of the disruption to a coaching change at this stage of our list development.

 

[Dockeroo]

One of the best things of us acquiring Ross Lyon, was that it showed a level of ruthlessness (fairly) which finally gave us a level of respect in the comp, and showed that we were happy to mix it with the big boys - ultimately this decision flowed onto the level Ross conducted himself, his coaching style and on-field success. This decision also aligned with Ross's personality. I loved those several years of ruthlessness the club created, for once we were respected and even feared. We had a slight aura of powerhouse about us, we wouldn't take a backward step to anyone, on and off the field.

Right now I see us as quite a few steps back from that, we're "too nice", boring on and off the field. I dont see any level of hardness and ruthlessness about us which in my belief is what you need to lift the cup. Serong and maybe Young are the 2 guys I see display that hardness that inspires. They need a serious and ruthless leader to complete their leadership.

For me, if the club were to be putting in the work now to obtain Chris Scott, this would be a fantastic move. It would again show ruthlessness. I also look at Chris Scott as a ruthless competitor - he's strong at the top, fiercely defends and leads his players and club. Chris Scott leading our young team from 2025 would have many similarities to when RL came on board, although our list would be more advanced and ready to challenge. If it's not to be Chris Scott, I really dont see any other candidates that'd be worthy of the disruption to a coaching change at this stage of our list development.

Can’t disagree with a single word of this.
I think a lot of fans are idealists that love the notion that 22 great guys that you’d be happy if any of them married your daughter, can win the flag for freo.
Coached by a guy that appears to be a decent, kind, supportive man that would never say a stern word to anyone.

Unfortunately pro sport is not like that.
It’s the Jordan de goey, Dustin Martin, Brayden Maynard, Jack Crisp, Steven May type guys that seem to rise above the nice guys in the finals and get it done. They get all the plaudits.
All people with questionable off and sometimes on field backgrounds but for whatever reason - you can’t win without a few guys like that. Coaches like Scott and Hardwick are angry abrasive guys that will get stuck into the media or the AFL at the slightest hint of being treated shabbily.
They don’t give a **** what anyone else thinks.

We had that with Ross Lyon for a few years and we were a powerhouse like you said. Teams in Melbourne DREADED coming to Subiaco oval to get monstered by Ross Lyons freo machine from 2012-15. With angry w***ers like crowley and Ballantyne rubbing every player and coach in the league up the wrong way, with Ross smirking away in the coaches box loving it.
We don’t have those guys now. Nothing like them. Yeah there’s one of two with a bit of niggle but it’s not enough. We need more of those type of people in our set up so badly. Several more of them actually.

 

[wakojako]

This bloke has got a tough gig this season. We all would love a finals appearance but we have lost many experienced players over the years. The following players have played less than 50 games:
Sturt
Chapman
Sharp
Emmett
Amiss
Erasmus
Noddy
Walker
Treacy
Johnson

Schultz was also a big loss. I don't know if playing finals should be a pass mark. If we are contending for a finals spot and play a fast attacking game style that would be more acceptable.

 

[DocT]

This bloke has got a tough gig this season. We all would love a finals appearance but we have lost many experienced players over the years. The following players have played less than 50 games:
Sturt
Chapman
Sharp
Emmett
Amiss
Erasmus
Noddy
Walker
Treacy
Johnson

Schultz was also a big loss. I don't know if playing finals should be a pass mark. If we are contending for a finals spot and play a fast attacking game style that would be more acceptable.

I agree that we are relatively inexperienced but it is worth looking more closely at your list. Experience is a product of both games and age. Ages below are their 2024 birthdays.

Sturt 24yo
Chapman 22yo
Sharp 23yo
Emmett 23yo
Amiss Already a Gun
Erasmus 21yo
Noddy 22yo
Walker 22yo, should reach 50 games in 2024
Treacy 22yo, should reach 50 games in 2024
Johnson 21yo

If drafted at age 18 then they have been on an AFL list 4-5 years by age 22/23. People are usually hitting their straps by this stage.

So of the list I would say only Johnson and Erasmus are still in the young/inexperienced bracket without qualification. The rest have got signifcant qualities (age, proven ability) that mitigate their lack of games.

My conclusion: we are inexperienced in the sense that this list still has a lot of growth potential. But we are not so inexperienced that this should be a reason to miss finals. JLo himself has said as much.

 

[pK75]

I agree that we are relatively inexperienced but it is worth looking more closely at your list. Experience is a product of both games and age. Ages below are their 2024 birthdays.

Sturt 24yo
Chapman 22yo
Sharp 23yo
Emmett 23yo
Amiss Already a Gun
Erasmus 21yo
Noddy 22yo
Walker 22yo, should reach 50 games in 2024
Treacy 22yo, should reach 50 games in 2024
Johnson 21yo

If drafted at age 18 then they have been on an AFL list 4-5 years by age 22/23. People are usually hitting their straps by this stage.

So of the list I would say only Johnson and Erasmus are still in the young/inexperienced bracket without qualification. The rest have got signifcant qualities (age, proven ability) that mitigate their lack of games.

My conclusion: we are inexperienced in the sense that this list still has a lot of growth potential. But we are not so inexperienced that this should be a reason to miss finals. JLo himself has said as much.

Agree with most of that, however I would add Emmett to the list with MJ and RAS. He may be 23 but this is only his 2nd preseason so hasn’t been in an AFL environment for 4-5 years.
He’s borderline B22 anyway.

 

[Dockeroo]

All it would take would be Tabs and Fyfe in the 22 every week and suddenly the whole narrative around our fielded side each week being young and inexperienced would disappear, there would be quite a lot of players with 100 games played.
It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the following players all line out in R1 (games in brackets)
Fyfe (218)
Walters (222)
Aish (163)
O’Meara (164)
Ryan (132)
Tabs (120)
Brayshaw (123)
Cox (102)
Pearce (107)
Darcy (98)

Behind that we have a bunch of strong contributors from around 70-90 games including
Serong
Switta
Clark
Young
Jackson
Frederick

All of whom will be well and truly “experienced” by the time the finals come around.
There is even experienced depth like banners, Hughes and McDonald that range from 75-101 games played.
No more youth excuses please.

 

[The Lobbster]

All it would take would be Tabs and Fyfe in the 22 every week and suddenly the whole narrative around our fielded side each week being young and inexperienced would disappear, there would be quite a lot of players with 100 games played.
It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the following players all line out in R1 (games in brackets)
Fyfe (218)
Walters (222)
Aish (163)
O’Meara (164)
Ryan (132)
Tabs (120)
Brayshaw (123)
Cox (102)
Pearce (107)
Darcy (98)

Behind that we have a bunch of strong contributors from around 70-90 games including
Serong
Switta
Clark
Young
Jackson
Frederick

All of whom will be well and truly “experienced” by the time the finals come around.
There is even experienced depth like banners, Hughes and McDonald that range from 75-101 games played.
No more youth excuses please.

Hayden Young and Michael Frederick have not played close to 70 games. Furthermore using a group of players at 70-90 games as a sign of experience is not super promising because as a rule of the thumb normally 100+ games is the sign of an experienced team.

Look to some extent you are correct. This team has played enough that they should be able to achieve enough to keep JL’s job. But at the same time, the group is statistically younger than most teams in the AFL and younger than average finals sides. So yes, youth is an excuse but it is also a fact. At the end of 24 (assuming minimal turnover), the Dockers will be closer to the prime window. They would approach where GC are now.

It’s also important to note that 3 of the 100 game plus blokes you listed did not play a huge amount of games in 23.

TLDR; Youth is both an excuse and a fact. Anyone who suggests that a 14th placement is inevitable with the list parameters is wrong. Similarly the idea that we “should” be top 6 based on the list is also likely wrong at this stage.

 

[CapitalA]

If will Broadie couldn't cutbit at AFL level, explain his 2022 season? Averaged 27.4 disposals a game

60% time on ground. He is a beast for short bursts but covering his lack of fitness is too costly.

 

[pK75]

60% time on ground. He is a beast for short bursts but covering his lack of fitness is too costly.

Still think he’d be the perfect high impact Sub to come on and play 1.5 quarters per game. That GC game last year should be the prototype of how we use him.

 

[CapitalA]

Still think he’d be the perfect high impact Sub to come on and play 1.5 quarters per game. That GC game last year should be the prototype of how we use him.

Yeah but why Brodie when we have Fyfe fit and firing.

 

[pK75]

Yeah but why Brodie when we have Fyfe fit and firing.

Fyfe is the one getting subbed off.