Coach Justin Longmuir

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CapitalA said:
Those windows also don't usually open until certain age and games played metrics are met, which we are on the verge of but not quite there yet.
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If we swapped tabs and Fyfe into the side for Treacy and Johnson, we would be right around your games and age metric for a flag but would be we any closer??
 
Dockeroo said:
If we swapped tabs and Fyfe into the side for Treacy and Johnson, we would be right around your games and age metric for a flag but would be we any closer??
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If they could stay on the ground a full season the answer is yes for 24/25 but we are hampering development of Johnson and Treacy so that means 26/27 when our window should be wide open those two will be behind where we need them to be and Fyfe, Walters and Tabs will have likely retired.
I think we can play Fyfe and Johnson in the same team, at the expense of Brodie and JOM, we would have trouble playing Treacy and Tabs unless Jackson becomes a full time Mid/Ruck Briclavs style.
 

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Dockeroo said:
If we swapped tabs and Fyfe into the side for Treacy and Johnson, we would be right around your games and age metric for a flag but would be we any closer??
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****ing oath we would. Fully fit Fyfe and Tabs would make a massive difference. Key players and in Fyfe's case, one of the best players in the league. Even Tabs would be massive. Either takes the 1st defender of Amiss or gets to play on the 2nd himself. Well capable of kicking 40+ in a full season.

The fact we got so little out of the 27+ brigade is a huge part of the reason we weren't as good as we should have been in 2023.
 
WilloTree said:
OK we need to stop talking about finals or bust.

Freo were the 4th youngest team in 2023 and had a 10 win season. To put that into perspective, the 5th youngest team was North Melbourne. 12 months ago we played and won a final - we've massively over-achieved on field.

Freo also posted record membership (by a mile) and a cash balance of over 7m (unprecedented)

It's pretty simple. Under JL Freo have clawed back the 10,000 members that left under Lyon, and are well on the way to added another 10 000, have a cash reserve we could only dream of and are achieving above expectations on field.

What was the reason he was under pressure again?
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Finals or bust is exactly what we need to be talking about. It is what the club has put on the table and it is what the coach has accepted.

Until the club follows your lead and releases a Press Release saying something like;

Finals, yeah maybe some day, but we've already over-achieved so that'll do. But we are too young so get real! And besides we have clawed back enough members; who needs success? It's over-rated. Even better than success, we have $7million bucks in the bank. Unprecedented. Might give ourselves a nice little raise.
 
pK75 said:
If they could stay on the ground a full season the answer is yes for 24/25 but we are hampering development of Johnson and Treacy so that means 26/27 when our window should be wide open those two will be behind where we need them to be and Fyfe, Walters and Tabs will have likely retired.
I think we can play Fyfe and Johnson in the same team, at the expense of Brodie and JOM, we would have trouble playing Treacy and Tabs unless Jackson becomes a full time Mid/Ruck Briclavs style.
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Joao said:
****ing oath we would. Fully fit Fyfe and Tabs would make a massive difference. Key players and in Fyfe's case, one of the best players in the league. Even Tabs would be massive. Either takes the 1st defender of Amiss or gets to play on the 2nd himself. Well capable of kicking 40+ in a full season.

The fact we got so little out of the 27+ brigade is a huge part of the reason we weren't as good as we should have been in 2023.
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I agree a late career Fyfe renaissance would be epic, I’d love to see it for the man himself’s own sake as well as the teams benefit.
Tabs - I think he could well play R1 instead of Treacy if he had a decent preseason. Just wonder if the overall JJJ dynamic would be affected even if tabs is a better player than Treacy right now?
 
theGav56 said:
Finals or bust is exactly what we need to be talking about. It is what the club has put on the table and it is what the coach has accepted.

Until the club follows your lead and releases a Press Release saying something like;

Finals, yeah maybe some day, but we've already over-achieved so that'll do. But we are too young so get real! And besides we have clawed back enough members; who needs success? It's over-rated. Even better than success, we have $7million bucks in the bank. Unprecedented. Might give ourselves a nice little raise.
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Jlo was the coach we required after Ross. We had let him take too much control
of the club. His time was up and we had let him off the leash and surrounded by
Yes men. Not entirely his fault. The club has history of doing just enough.
Ross is always the short term option, and my question is would we get more
out if this group now or with JLo?
If JLo is more Harvey or Connelly, a hugely driven individual or personality is hard
to ignore. Depends on how highly you rate the list I guess.
Finals or bust is exactly what is required, especially after 2022, no excuse footy
Mindset.
 
blue shark said:
Jlo was the coach we required after Ross. We had let him take too much control
of the club. His time was up and we had let him off the leash and surrounded by
Yes men. Not entirely his fault. The club has history of doing just enough.
Ross is always the short term option, and my question is would we get more
out if this group now or with JLo?
If JLo is more Harvey or Connelly, a hugely driven individual or personality is hard
to ignore. Depends on how highly you rate the list I guess.
Finals or bust is exactly what is required, especially after 2022, no excuse footy
Mindset.
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The momentum needs to be going in the right direction for a coach. It didn't this year, and simply must next year.

It really isn't a difficult measurement to go by, and doesn't necessarily equate to finals, but it still remains a pretty good measure for us in our situation.
 
MadMundy said:
So what do we think? What's the pass mark for Longmuir this season?
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I'm loath to put a definitive marker on him right now. Finals is enough for him to keep his job, but I'm not sure missing finals is enough for him to lose his job,.But this depends on some other factors, like general game play improvement and overall competitiveness. Finals is a definite mark and will dictate how we view the season, no doubt.
 
Dockeroo said:
I agree a late career Fyfe renaissance would be epic, I’d love to see it for the man himself’s own sake as well as the teams benefit.
Tabs - I think he could well play R1 instead of Treacy if he had a decent preseason. Just wonder if the overall JJJ dynamic would be affected even if tabs is a better player than Treacy right now?
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Tabener is definitely better based on his best and Treacy's 2023. I think Treacy will overtake due to his all-round game but 2020 Tabs is comfortably better.
 
Dockeroo said:
Tabs - I think he could well play R1 instead of Treacy if he had a decent preseason. Just wonder if the overall JJJ dynamic would be affected even if tabs is a better player than Treacy right now?
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I've always been a Tabs fan (well maybe not for the first few years, took him a while to put it together). But I think Tabs should only be a depth player now, he's not the future. I wouldn't want to mess with the JJJ dynamic and these young forwards seem to be able to keep out of each others way/maintain structure. Also Amiss's return of 41 goals would have to be the best we've seen since Pav was near his peak, more than Tabs or Lobb ever kicked in a season.
 

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Megalon said:
I've always been a Tabs fan (well maybe not for the first few years, took him a while to put it together). But I think Tabs should only be a depth player now, he's not the future. I wouldn't want to mess with the JJJ dynamic and these young forwards seem to be able to keep out of each others way/maintain structure. Also Amiss's return of 41 goals would have to be the best we've seen since Pav was near his peak, more than Tabs or Lobb ever kicked in a season.
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Tabs needs to play FF, and is only backup now for Amiss. Not bad insurance.
Treacy can ruck, and isn’t a liability with ball in hand, decision making.
If they could develop him as another swingman with Cox, it would also show
another side of JLo and potentially a nightmare to counter.
This team needs multiple setups and positioning especially when plan A isn’t
working.
The really good coaching groups are always looking to develop or find an edge.
I’ve seen plenty of finals won this way, offense/defensive moves and the media
love to label genius moves. Any tactical game is played this way.
 
King Huskii said:
Did I say he's a more successful coach

I just stated that he out coached Scott on two recent occasions. I know full well that Geelong are far more successful
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Yes and I’m saying I have no idea what point you’re trying to make by saying JLo our coached scott (may have).
 
There seems to be some on here who conveniently forget we played finals under JL just over15 months ago (only losing to Collingwood who seem to go OK yeah?).

If the metric is 'finals or bust' and ignores all other factors - it's already been achieved.

Can JL coach a team to top 8? Already answered - yes
Can JL coach a team to win finals? Already answered - yes
Is there someone out there we KNOW can do this as well with the list we have - absolutely NOT

It would be the most dockery docker thing to turf a coach who ticks every box and replace him with an unknown. I reckon that would just about be it for me. A man can only take so much self torture.
 
The Lobbster said:
I think it’s a bit rich to attribute membership and profit to a coach but I do actually agree with the sentiment.

A black and white position on the ladder goal isn’t a great measure of a team because the evenness of the competition over the last years is really disguising how well teams are actually doing. I think aiming for an amount of wins is a better measure. For instance Adelaide would’ve lost a coach this year using a finals or bust approach even though they missed finals based on some unfortunate circumstances.

For me:

Bad season: 8 or less wins: Worse than last year and proves that 2023 was not a blip. Would almost certainly result in a new coach unless significant mitigating factors like an injury crisis

Mediocre season: 9-11 wins: Basically the same as last year. Could result in a coaching change but would need to consider any mitigating circumstances.

Good season: 12 or more wins: Shows improvement regardless of overall ladder position. Most likely results in an extension unless there are significant player issues.

Furthermore whilst youth is an excuse it is also a fact which is why these measurements are made based on 2023 where the list profile was similar (2024 our list is slightly older but slightly less experienced).
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Membership, profit and onfield success are 100% linked. If you want any clearer example look at what happened to our membership in the last years of Lyon, then look where we are now.

But you know that.
 
Dockeroo said:
Firstly forget about Lyon he’s got nothing to do with The 2024 season.
Most of our best players are in the prime of their career.
Brayshaw - 7th season, 130 games in. He’s close to his peak right now.
Serong - 5th season, already an AA. Still improving but already in the best 22 players in the league based on last season.
Our 3 tall defenders (Pearce/Cox/Ryan) are in the prime of their careers - 25-30 age bracket. As a collective unit, what they produce in 2024 should be as good as it gets from them.

Our number one ruck is in year 8 of his career and will tick over 100 games having already been a B&F winner and AA40 squad member.
Jackson will also hit 100 games in 2024 and is already one of the most dynamic players in the league and an AA40 Member.

We have a nice sprinkling of experience from solid AFL performers like Aish, JOM and Switta and then there is Sonny still showing great form over 200 games in.

I haven’t even mentioned quality improving players like Clark (who will hit 100 games in 2024) and Young (a bit behind this games total but already one of our best) and then there’s Chapman and Johnson bout rapidly improving.
Yea amiss is still young but he should only be better in 2024 in year 3 of his career and he will get to 50 games by end of the season. He’s also the best player we have drafted in a generation nearly (in my opinion).
Fyfe - wildcard. Who knows.


So nah, overall I’m not buying this crap that we are young and shouldn’t expect finals. That’s a loser mentality.
As a matter of interest, when would you expect finals from this group?
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You're overrating our list.

As an example, list for me our A grade forwards:
1. (potentially) Amiss
2. ... um.... Walters was 3 years ago.
3. .. crickets?

Now do outside mids/wings.. it's worse.
 
WilloTree said:
There seems to be some on here who conveniently forget we played finals under JL just over15 months ago (only losing to Collingwood who seem to go OK yeah?).

If the metric is 'finals or bust' and ignores all other factors - it's already been achieved.

Can JL coach a team to top 8? Already answered - yes
Can JL coach a team to win finals? Already answered - yes
Is there someone out there we KNOW can do this as well with the list we have - absolutely NOT

It would be the most dockery docker thing to turf a coach who ticks every box and replace him with an unknown. I reckon that would just about be it for me. A man can only take so much self torture.
Click to expand...
Yes JLo can coach, but in 22 we also had Carr in our corner who wasn’t replaced.
Pies were predicted to be a team on the rise in 23, we were predicted to fall.
Losing players suggests something is not right at the club?
We didn’t take the game on, learned from our losses in 22 and that’s coaching.
If we are not in contention for the eight by the end of the year it will take care
of itself.
I personally blame the club not the individual as they haven’t done enough for
continual success. I agree that one unknown is a risk.
Several more positions need to be filled, created to create a brains trust.
 
WilloTree said:
You're overrating our list.

As an example, list for me our A grade forwards:
1. (potentially) Amiss
2. ... um.... Walters was 3 years ago.
3. .. crickets?

Now do outside mids/wings.. it's worse.
Click to expand...
I do agree our forwards are probably not at the required level yet. At the same time, a front 6 plus one interchange forward of:
Amiss
Walters
Jackson
Switkowski
Frederick
Treacy or Tabs
With a bench wildcard like Sturt

Offers some promise. Especially when you consider the rest of our team should be hitting their prime from 2024 onwards, and then there the fact that the pies won a flag with a group of relatively underwhelming forwards on paper at least, though they are still a good bit better than our forwards.

In addition - it’s not going to change a lot over the next 12-24 months really, is it?
In fact we will lose Walters soon and replace him with Delean? A completely speculative pick in the 60s. Logan McD could help a bit but we will still need some small forward class.

Does that mean JL gets a free pass till 2027 when amiss and Frederick and jackson and Treacy are fully firing at their peak and hopefully close to AA? Of course not.
Also the defensive trio of Pearce Ryan and Cox will be on the wane by then.
There is always some part of the ground that is not going to be at their peak at any given time. AFL coaches don’t get the luxury of waiting around for 5 years for things to come good.

Also - finals is hardly a stretch either? It’s just finish at least 8th out of 18 teams. We just need to be in the top 45% of sides in the comp. It’s not at all unrealistic to set a goal like that. In fact, it would be pretty slack not to.
Every team bar north and WCE will be aiming for finals when the season kicks off.
 
blue shark said:
Yes JLo can coach, but in 22 we also had Carr in our corner who wasn’t replaced.
Pies were predicted to be a team on the rise in 23, we were predicted to fall.
Losing players suggests something is not right at the club?
We didn’t take the game on, learned from our losses in 22 and that’s coaching.
If we are not in contention for the eight by the end of the year it will take care
of itself.
I personally blame the club not the individual as they haven’t done enough for
continual success. I agree that one unknown is a risk.
Several more positions need to be filled, created to create a brains trust.
Click to expand...

They just hired a new coach (Sturgess) and shifted more resources into the coaching department (Murphy skills coach). So they are making changes but you still complain...
 
blue shark said:
Yes JLo can coach, but in 22 we also had Carr in our corner who wasn’t replaced.
Pies were predicted to be a team on the rise in 23, we were predicted to fall.
Losing players suggests something is not right at the club?
We didn’t take the game on, learned from our losses in 22 and that’s coaching.
If we are not in contention for the eight by the end of the year it will take care
of itself.
I personally blame the club not the individual as they haven’t done enough for
continual success. I agree that one unknown is a risk.
Several more positions need to be filled, created to create a brains trust.
Click to expand...
All good points. Nice.
 
Dockeroo said:
I do agree our forwards are probably not at the required level yet. At the same time, a front 6 plus one interchange forward of:
Amiss
Walters
Jackson
Switkowski
Frederick
Treacy or Tabs
With a bench wildcard like Sturt

Offers some promise. Especially when you consider the rest of our team should be hitting their prime from 2024 onwards, and then there the fact that the pies won a flag with a group of relatively underwhelming forwards on paper at least, though they are still a good bit better than our forwards.

In addition - it’s not going to change a lot over the next 12-24 months really, is it?
In fact we will lose Walters soon and replace him with Delean? A completely speculative pick in the 60s. Logan McD could help a bit but we will still need some small forward class.

Does that mean JL gets a free pass till 2027 when amiss and Frederick and jackson and Treacy are fully firing at their peak and hopefully close to AA? Of course not.
Also the defensive trio of Pearce Ryan and Cox will be on the wane by then.
There is always some part of the ground that is not going to be at their peak at any given time. AFL coaches don’t get the luxury of waiting around for 5 years for things to come good.

Also - finals is hardly a stretch either? It’s just finish at least 8th out of 18 teams. We just need to be in the top 45% of sides in the comp. It’s not at all unrealistic to set a goal like that. In fact, it would be pretty slack not to.
Every team bar north and WCE will be aiming for finals when the season kicks off.
Click to expand...
I see where you're going and agree to a large extent. There's some promise there but let's be honest about the names.

Amiss - I already mentioned potentially an A grader and we're 'all in' on him becoming one.
Walters - 32
Jackson - not a forward
Switkowski - doesn't kick goals
Frederick - probably my favourite player, but also the most inconsistent player in the team. Really only shines in our big wins.
Tabs - was finished years ago.
Treacy - love him. I've noticed incremental improvement each year, which might mean he can be a reliable role player. Can see him reaching solid B grade.
Sturt - jury still out if he's even AFL standard.

I have high hopes for Emmett though (one we didn't mention). Can see him becoming a regular. He's not AA standard, but we need him to be a 'best 22'.

Logan McDonald might help but it's medium/small forwards who kick goals that we need. We also just lost our best pressure forward to Collingwood..arrggghhhh
 
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