USA Kamala Harris the 47th President of the United States - Hopefully.

[Bloods86]

I think it will be Shapiro. they seem to get along well, and will make a formidable ticket. they'll also bring PA into serious play, which will likely decide the election. we'll know in a couple of hours, but he's my tip.

PA is already well in play, without Shapiro. No reason why a good VP pick from somewhere else doesn't pick up some more PA voters, plus not turn away some people who have been re-enthused about Harris both there and elsewhere.

But, if I bet on these things, Shapiro is the bigger name, from the bigger state, despite problems they'll then face elsewhere.

 

[Nikita Blue]

I am the dog in this picture. Go Tim.

 

[darrenmorgan]

PA is already well in play, without Shapiro. No reason why a good VP pick from somewhere else doesn't pick up some more PA voters, plus not turn away some people who have been re-enthused about Harris both there and elsewhere.

But, if I bet on these things, Shapiro is the bigger name, from the bigger state, despite problems they'll then face elsewhere.

I don't see them facing 'problems elsewhere' with him. VP picks generally have very little influence on who people vote for; in this instance he'll bring PA voters, plus he's an incredibly good politician who also is young, speaks amazingly well, and fits with the vision for a new start. what are the 'problems' you think he brings? Israel? in all honesty, most normal US voters won't even consider that issue for a split second in this election.

 

[Dazzler9]

All that a VP pick does is potentially poison the well. See: Sarah Palin 2008 (and potentially Couch F**ker 2024).

As long as a reasonably steady pair of hands is chosen, there'll likely be no discernible shift in fortunes.

 

[Bloods86]

I don't see them facing 'problems elsewhere' with him. VP picks generally have very little influence on who people vote for; in this instance he'll bring PA voters, plus he's an incredibly good politician who also is young, speaks amazingly well, and fits with the vision for a new start. what are the 'problems' you think he brings? Israel? in all honesty, most normal US voters won't even consider that issue for a split second in this election.

Israel and his past comments about protestors and Palestinians. I think progressives (as well as Muslims) account for some of the uptick in polling, because Harris is a potential break from Biden, and this is one of their key issues.

He already has rumours and questions about cover ups during his time as AG. What else will come out?

I just don't think they need to risk these problems.

 

[darrenmorgan]

All that a VP pick does is potentially poison the well. See: Sarah Palin 2008 (and potentially Couch F**ker 2024).

As long as a reasonably steady pair of hands is chosen, there'll likely be no discernible shift in fortunes.

Couchf**ker 2024 is even more toxic than Palin. there was not a chance McCain was winning anyway; and its a similar sitch here now with Dementia Don.

 

[darrenmorgan]

Israel and his past comments about protestors and Palestinians. I think progressives (as well as Muslims) account for some of the uptick in polling, because Harris is a potential break from Biden, and this is one of their key issues.

He already has rumours and questions about cover ups during his time as AG. What else will come out?

I just don't think they need to risk these problems.

No one who is being polled in the US has changed their vote from Trump to Harris because they think she will be more progressive on Palestine. In fact, very few people (who are not engaged in foreign politics) in the US even know where or what Palestine is. those that are certainly weren't voting for Trump to begin with. This election is about American issues for Americans. what is happening in the Middle East is of zero importance to this election.

 

[Dont_be_a_Plonka]

Couchf**ker 2024 is even more toxic than Palin. there was not a chance McCain was winning anyway; and its a similar sitch here now with Dementia Don.

I liked McCain even though he was a Republican.

In retrospect it would have been a good thing if he'd won the Presidency.
With him gone the decent admirable element of the GOP died forever and was consumed by the Tea party ****witz and the Neocon hawks who have been then cannibalised by the MAGA cult.

 

[darrenmorgan]

I liked McCain even though he was a Republican.

In retrospect it would have been a good thing if he'd won the Presidency.
With him gone the decent admirable element of the GOP died forever and was consumed by the Tea party ****witz the Neocon hawks who have been then cannibalised by the MAGA cult.

don't disagree with this, he was a decent man, and the last of the non lunatic GOP. His thumbs down to Trump on the Obama care vote is one of the greatest moments in American history. inviting every single living US president, Democrat or GOP, to his own funeral - except Trump - was pretty cool too.

 

[Not Important]

I don't see them facing 'problems elsewhere' with him. VP picks generally have very little influence on who people vote for; in this instance he'll bring PA voters, plus he's an incredibly good politician who also is young, speaks amazingly well, and fits with the vision for a new start. what are the 'problems' you think he brings? Israel? in all honesty, most normal US voters won't even consider that issue for a split second in this election.

walz is not so youthful - not old in trump’s terms either - but has all the attributes you describe and is a good political street fighter. he’s the one who came up with the 'weird' bizo when referencing the convicted felon, which has taken off.

that said, i suspect the issue of shapiro's anti-palestine stance - which he’s walked back from - won’t hurt him too much in a country that either doesn’t care about the plight of the palestinians and where the israel lobby effectively uses - read abuses - the mainstream media and has most pollies by the short and curlies.

kamala having a jewish partner won’t hurt shapiro’s chances either you'd suspect.

think kelly is a longish odds. so i’ve got my fingers crossed for walz.

 

[Mick F]

don't disagree with this, he was a decent man, and the last of the non lunatic GOP. His thumbs down to Trump on the Obama care vote is one of the greatest moments in American history. inviting every single living US president, Democrat or GOP, to his own funeral - except Trump - was pretty cool too.

Yes, you have got to be some special kind of ar**hole to be persona non grata at a funeral - when you are POTUS.

 

[Dazzler9]

Yes, you have got to be some special kind of ar**hole to be persona non grata at a funeral - when you are POTUS.

That indeed he is.

 

[liz]

No one who is being polled in the US has changed their vote from Trump to Harris because they think she will be more progressive on Palestine. In fact, very few people (who are not engaged in foreign politics) in the US even know where or what Palestine is. those that are certainly weren't voting for Trump to begin with. This election is about American issues for Americans. what is happening in the Middle East is of zero importance to this election.

While that's true, there are some Democrat-leaners - maybe not many, but some - who will likely sit out the election altogether if they think neither candidate cares about Palestine. We know this. They're the ones who refused to vote for Biden in the primaries even when he was the only candidate.

The US election is, after all, as much about getting your own supporters out to vote as it is about persuading those from the other camp and/or swingers.

 

[darrenmorgan]

While that's true, there are some Democrat-leaners - maybe not many, but some - who will likely sit out the election altogether if they think neither candidate cares about Palestine. We know this. They're the ones who refused to vote for Biden in the primaries even when he was the only candidate.

The US election is, after all, as much about getting your own supporters out to vote as it is about persuading those from the other camp and/or swingers.

of course, but I just argue that issue will not cause a dent at the polls. strangely it may have with Biden as nominee, but with Harris I think many that were using that as a reason not to turn out at all for Biden V Trump will ultimately turn out for other reasons to vote for Harris (and the biggest one being to make sure Trump doesn't get back anywhere near the WH).

 

[Bloods86]

No one who is being polled in the US has changed their vote from Trump to Harris because they think she will be more progressive on Palestine. In fact, very few people (who are not engaged in foreign politics) in the US even know where or what Palestine is. those that are certainly weren't voting for Trump to begin with. This election is about American issues for Americans. what is happening in the Middle East is of zero importance to this election.

Thoroughly disagree. There were over 700k "uncommitted" votes in the primary, many in states with organised "uncommitted" campaigns around Israel/Gaza.

Michigan - 101k
North Carolina - 88k
Wisconsin - 48k

Now, some of these would be informal or write ins, some would be for other reasons.

But among progressives and Muslim or Arab Americans, this is a big issue, and polling for the latter has been terrible for Biden (so any sign of being in lockstep with his position is fraught with danger).

Democrats can ignore it if they want. But in recent elections there's been swing states separated by only tens of thousands of votes.

 

[Bloods86]

of course, but I just argue that issue will not cause a dent at the polls. strangely it may have with Biden as nominee, but with Harris I think many that were using that as a reason not to turn out at all for Biden V Trump will ultimately turn out for other reasons to vote for Harris (and the biggest one being to make sure Trump doesn't get back anywhere near the WH).

Trump was already going to be on the ballot.

Picking a fairly one-sided VP candidate on the issue is a fair middle finger to any who thought Harris might bring change.

 

[darrenmorgan]

Trump was already going to be on the ballot.

Picking a fairly one-sided VP candidate on the issue is a fair middle finger to any who thought Harris might bring change.

I just think you are kidding yourself if you think Palestine is an issue that will influence this election in the US. I spend a fair bit of time there and its just not an issue I think will have any impact on who wins this general election. that's not to say I think it shouldn't; but it is to say I don't think it will.

 

[Bloods86]

I just think you are kidding yourself if you think Palestine is an issue that will influence this election in the US. I spend a fair bit of time there and its just not an issue I think will have any impact on who wins this general election. that's not to say I think it shouldn't; but it is to say I don't think it will.

Did I say it "will"? I think it might, in one or two states, which could be the difference. There's some significant numbers behind this.

Progressive media, particularly those who were on the fence or stated they weren't voting for Biden, are more enthusiastic about Harris. They are gritting their teeth over Shapiro and have significant followings, not to mention other groups I referred to.

I guess if groups have signalled this is an issue they will or won't vote over, and the Dems ignore it, they better hope the actual uncommitted vote was a small one.

 

[liz]

I just think you are kidding yourself if you think Palestine is an issue that will influence this election in the US. I spend a fair bit of time there and its just not an issue I think will have any impact on who wins this general election. that's not to say I think it shouldn't; but it is to say I don't think it will.

I acknowledge your different perspective if you spend time there. And also that there’s a difference between thinking it should matter and it actually mattering.

Whereabouts in the US do you visit? From a distance and based just on news reports, I get the sense it could matter in those important, thin-margin Mid West swing states.

 

[Mick F]

Trump was already going to be on the ballot.

Picking a fairly one-sided VP candidate on the issue is a fair middle finger to any who thought Harris might bring change.

His claim to be an observant Conservative Jew took a knock on Friday, when the Philadelphia Inquirer revealed a 1993 op-ed penned by a 20 yo Josh Shapiro whilst at Uni.

Progressive democrats seeking a veep candidate that is pro Hamas, or at least sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians, who have typically been pushed to the margins in US politics.

 

[Dazzler9]

Settle down you lot. The US election isn't gonna be decided by someone's views on the middle East when they were a 20 yr old student.

 

[Not Important]

 

[darrenmorgan]

I acknowledge your different perspective if you spend time there. And also that there’s a difference between thinking it should matter and it actually mattering.

Whereabouts in the US do you visit? From a distance and based just on news reports, I get the sense it could matter in those important, thin-margin Mid West swing states.

I spend a few months each year around mostly eastern states (PA, NY, DC, NJ, VA) but also some midwestern places (Illinois, Ohio, Michigan). Also spend some time each year on the west coast, which isn’t so important in this election context. I just don’t, in all my interactions with Americans that I know, see them even thinking about Palestine when it comes to voting.

 

[Dont_be_a_Plonka]

Thoroughly disagree. There were over 700k "uncommitted" votes in the primary, many in states with organised "uncommitted" campaigns around Israel/Gaza.

Michigan - 101k
North Carolina - 88k
Wisconsin - 48k

Now, some of these would be informal or write ins, some would be for other reasons.

But among progressives and Muslim or Arab Americans, this is a big issue, and polling for the latter has been terrible for Biden (so any sign of being in lockstep with his position is fraught with danger).

Democrats can ignore it if they want. But in recent elections there's been swing states separated by only tens of thousands of votes.

Having Shapiro on the ticket enables Harris to be far more critical of Israel than without him.
Israel and the US are inexorably linked and the influence flows both ways.

Remember it's the MAGA like Likud campaigners responsible for how the war in GAZA has been conducted.
A left leaning Jewish American VP might be the best thing possible to help break their control of the Knesset

 

[Bloods86]

Settle down you lot. The US election isn't gonna be decided by someone's views on the middle East when they were a 20 yr old student.

Yes, because that's the only critique.