USA Kamala Harris the 47th President of the United States - Hopefully.

[Not Important]

Stan and fellow broadcaster Tracey holmes had an affair in 2000 and were dumped from sevens olympic coverage

i get you like to often play the wisenheimer role, often to good effect. fail on this occasion as the question i asked of sbd was done to allow the poster to quash a matter floating around sky after dark types concerning aboriginality.

big_e has done the job and i’ve thanked him for it. back to the topic

 

[big_e]

Maybe you should have referenced the updated site. Lichtmann doesn’t claim his system predicts the popular vote, only the winner:

13 Keys Prediction

Distinguished history professor Allan J. Lichtman predicts a Trump win.

www.american.edu

I think what happened with Bush Gore in 2000 would be considered a black swan. Not aware of any other US election like it.

Anyway, again, who has a better record? If you’re so certain he’s nothing special I would have thought that would be pretty easy to answer.

So before the election, he said Trump would win the popular vote, but after it, he has retrospectively changed the description so he can claim success, and that somehow makes it better? Rightio.

The Bush vs Gore election was close, but close elections aren't all that rare - 1960 and 1968 also had less than 1% difference in the popular vote, 1976 was 2%. Taking the Taleb definition - given he was the guy that popularised the term - a black swan event is "an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility."

Close elections had happened before, so it's not outside the realm of regular expectation. But again, getting the easy ones right is easy - if you want to convince people you have some special ability in predicting events, it's your ability to get the hard ones right that makes the difference.

 

[Present Not Past]

I know it’s a cliche, but in this instance it happens to be true.
Getting people to the voting booths on election day will favour the Democrats more than the Republicans.
Biden proved this in 2020.

 

[Spearman]

i don’t wish to stoke the fire but......

except it's the GOP and Fox/conservative media and the Christo-Fascist griftosphere that are declaring it.

Trump is just the fat orange parrot that is trying to get a biscuit for repeating it

 

[Spearman]

I wonder how strong Dick Cheney still in WY. Can he cause some of those old GOPers who went MAGA to doubt their actions? Liz was never really one of them, so I guess she was easier to dump. If he can get some second thoughts going there, then maybe GOPers around the country who hadn't really put much thought into 2016 or 2020 might also get the doubts.
Just on his own word, people are not going to simply switch. But he could start some micro-ripples.

 

[Satan]

I know it’s a cliche, but in this instance it happens to be true.
Getting people to the voting booths on election day will favour the Democrats more than the Republicans.
Biden proved this in 2020.

Biden got people to vote by mail and absentee particular the black voters of Milwaukee , Detroit Pittsburgh , phillidelphia and atlanta in the swing states . These votes were added to the counting after the election day counting . Thats why counts shifted wildly in 2020

 

[Present Not Past]

Biden got people to vote by mail and absentee particular the black voters of Milwaukee , Detroit Pittsburgh , phillidelphia and atlanta in the swing states . These votes were added to the counting after the election day counting . Thats why counts shifted wildly in 2000.

Don't you mean 2020?
Covid meant that many people voted by mail and absentee that year.
But they still voted.
So what's your point again?

 

[Satan]

Don't you mean 2020?
Covid meant that many people voted by mail and absentee that year.
But they still voted.
So what's your point again?

Yes was 2020

 

[Stokey]

dare to dream. the dems get a majority in both houses.

Bloomberg the billionaire donor good.

Musk the billionaire donor bad.

You guys actually do like billionaires if they support your team.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Look at this embarrassment.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Look at this embarrassment.

Lol, what a fail.
And those Donald Duck lips.

 

[iDon]

Bloomberg the billionaire donor good.

Musk the billionaire donor bad.

You guys actually do like billionaires if they support your team.

Link to Bloomberg "social" media platform used for disinformation and electoral interference?

Thanks.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Bloomberg the billionaire donor good.

Musk the billionaire donor bad.

You guys actually do like billionaires if they support your team.

Isn't musk an immigrant and diaper Don doesn't like immigrants does he?

 

[iDon]

Isn't musk an immigrant and diaper Don doesn't like immigrants does he?

Donny born to immigrants and married to one as well. The audacity!

 

[Stokey]

Link to Bloomberg "social" media platform used for disinformation and electoral interference?

Thanks.

Lol. It has the same information on it from when it was a lefty sandpit that you all loved.

I notice X is going as strong as ever eventhough you were all boycotting it and praying for its demise.

 

[Stokey]

Isn't musk an immigrant and diaper Don doesn't like immigrants does he?

I think you're missing a word before immigrants.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I think you're missing a word before immigrants.

And what might that be?

 

[Stokey]

And what might that be?

C'mon. I know you've got this.

 

[Aussie in exile]

C'mon. I know you've got this.

I certainly have, but i want to hear from you so tell me.

 

[Stokey]

I certainly have, but i want to hear from you so tell me.

You sound like my wife.

 

[iDon]

Lol. It has the same information on it from when it was a lefty sandpit that you all loved.

I notice X is going as strong as ever eventhough you were all boycotting it and praying for its demise.

Yeah nah, "same information".

Strong as ever on the right I am sure, an moderated "social" media platform where they can jerk off in their shacks to their heart content. But why are advertisers leaving in droves? revenue is dropping? being propped up by the billionaire owner?

Not even sure why I am replying here.

 

[Aussie in exile]

You sound like my wife

I'll make it easy for you.
Did tRumps present wife work in the US illegally when she arrived in the US on a travel visa which didn't give you permission to work there?

 

[OneGreatClub]

Lol. It has the same information on it from when it was a lefty sandpit that you all loved.

I notice X is going as strong as ever eventhough you were all boycotting it and praying for its demise.

 

[Mick F]

I'll make it easy for you.
Did tRumps present wife work in the US illegally when she arrived in the US on a travel visa which didn't give you permission to work there?

Liberal use of ‘work’. I was under the impression that her ‘manager’ Paolo Zampolli‘a major source of income was from providing escort services for rich NY men. Parties at venues, like the Kit Kat Club, would provide the opportunity for the young women to show their wares and men to make their selections, much like strip clubs. Quite the entrepreneur.

 

[Gough]

There's a few grey areas about Musk's early immigration status too.