KA's Dream Team bets

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Keystone agony said:
6 unit N.Jones under 84.5 ($1.87)

1 Unit S.Selwood to beat Shuey ($1.87)

1 Unit N.Riewoldt under 97.5 ($1.87)

Gone against the Jack Steven one
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Keystone agony said:
With the JJK out ive also just jumped on NicNat 2U ($1.87) to score over 89
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All are looking very good

Just need to keep N.Riewoldt quiet hes usually a very good starter

Loving my NicNat late bet

I went all against Shuey expecting Jones to tag him or at the very least one of Ray, Jones or Geary

Saints love roles and tag players
 
For my first dreamteam bet I took a multi with Scott Selwood to beat Leigh Montagna and Chris Masten to beat Dean Cox at $2.97

Quarter time:
Scooter 45 Montagna 45
Masten 23 Cox 23

Interesting start!
 

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And it is very close
Half time:
Scooter 64 Montagna 65
Masten 56 Cox 57

Cox has had his scoring drop off since Naitanui returned, thought he would struggle to get much past 90 which Masten has done every round since round 1. The other bet was probably a genuine 50/50
 
If anyone wants to chase a bit of value

Steele Sidebottom paying $2.10 to beat Pendlebury H2H

Pendlebury to score under 109.5 ($2)

Read the following page regarding Mckenzie tags of late, kept pendles to 104 last year.

I doubt ill have the balls, i might target Sidebottom over Pendles but unsure, they arent that safe but i feel valued bets
 
Keystone agony said:
Was gonna go Masten but i just didnt think there was value, i should probably look less for value and target what i actually think will happen more



I slightly disagree with the Hanneberry one i left it alone which in hindsight wasnt a great idea but these are the reasons why.

I thought with Jetta OUT, R.Douglas was an ideal matchup for Hanneberry who i believe will now be the number one tagged swan at sydney (Why clubs tag JPK is beyond me, his performance and Sydney have zero correlation, coaches should start listening. In fact the 2 worser (word) games he has had vs pies and now crows they have played their best footy).

I thought Sydney would actually have a fair chance of smashing them thus i hit the $6 (40+ LINE) i believe it was, however i thought JPK, Mcveigh, ROK, Jack would be the catalyst from the mids

Also before this weekend Hanneberry had avg just 95 for a 92.5 line where he was paying under the (50/50) 1.87 only 1.80.

I need to get an account could be making so much more.
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Nah he'd beaten 92.5 in 7/10 of his matches. Discounting rd1 it was against Essendon and Hawks both quality teams whereas I felt they would kill the crows. And then secondly I backed him to avoid a tag.

Anyway another win from Roo and also liking the Jones under 85 bet. Had him last round for over 79.5 as he wouldn't get tagged against Hawks and does alright when that happens. However he scored 0 points in the last like 10 minutes of the game to juuust get over the line even then. Wouldn't back him against Macaffer and regardless he's scored over 85 once this season...against GWS.
 
samwise said:
Nah he'd beaten 92.5 in 7/10 of his matches. Discounting rd1 it was against Essendon and Hawks both quality teams whereas I felt they would kill the crows. And then secondly I backed him to avoid a tag.

Anyway another win from Roo and also liking the Jones under 85 bet. Had him last round for over 79.5 as he wouldn't get tagged against Hawks and does alright when that happens. However he scored 0 points in the last like 10 minutes of the game to juuust get over the line even then. Wouldn't back him against Macaffer and regardless he's scored over 85 once this season...against GWS.
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You make some good points about hanneberry although syill not a tupe of bet i go for he really shouldve got a tag. i think everyone is all over that jones bet should really bet more on it. anwyway how you faring in dt i suspect once again quite well?
 
Keystone agony said:
If anyone wants to chase a bit of value

Steele Sidebottom paying $2.10 to beat Pendlebury H2H

Pendlebury to score under 109.5 ($2)

Read the following page regarding Mckenzie tags of late, kept pendles to 104 last year.

I doubt ill have the balls, i might target Sidebottom over Pendles but unsure, they arent that safe but i feel valued bets
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I looked at this earlier today and was also tempted to go with Sidebottom.

Some of the big scores against Melbourne this year have come from outside players and Sidey should have a field day out on the wing tomorrow. I will probably avoid it but if I was taking one of those 2, it would be Sidey.
 
Keystone agony said:
You make some good points about hanneberry although syill not a tupe of bet i go for he really shouldve got a tag. i think everyone is all over that jones bet should really bet more on it. anwyway how you faring in dt i suspect once again quite well?
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Now in next game or so he will cop a tag. Ye 421st this year with 600k in bank and more likely to move up this week. Hopefully make another run.

I'd wait for the weather for any other bets tomorrow just in case.
Sidebottom is still too much of an unknown for me but maybe others know him better. May be a player who scores much better against the lower teams (e.g. Masten to beat Priddis against GWS $1.95 was easy because of that) but only really have the Lions game to go off as Pies have had tough draw so hard to say with him.
 

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2-2 for a small loss tonight.

Kennedy out actually helped Cox out I think. He spent more time in the middle than usual and Masten had one of his quieter games for the season.

At half time it was looking good for all 4 to get up but unfortunately Steven and Masten dropped right off in the second half.
 
samwise said:
Now in next game or so he will cop a tag. Ye 421st this year with 600k in bank and more likely to move up this week. Hopefully make another run.

I'd wait for the weather for any other bets tomorrow just in case.
Sidebottom is still too much of an unknown for me but maybe others know him better. May be a player who scores much better against the lower teams (e.g. Masten to beat Priddis against GWS $1.95 was easy because of that) but only really have the Lions game to go off as Pies have had tough draw so hard to say with him.
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Gee man consistently top 400-500 for you hopefully i can have another top 450 or so finish.

Im 1.4k~

But sitting on 1514 with 5 to come (only 4 will count, 5 if they all go above 72 (Crouch))

So id expect that to take me right up the rankings and this week is probably close to my worst round for the bye i think.

But we will see i expect to be right in the top 1k after the byes.
 
Butler said:
N.Jones under 84.5 @1.87 2U Sportingbet

All those bets are basically relying on a successful tag.
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Butler said:
Adding:

Cloke > Howe, Shaw and Sylvia @2.70 (1U) luxbet

Cloke should have a field day today with Frawley out and plenty of supply. Hopefully he has his kicking boots on.
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And Cloke storms home with a 50 point last quarter to get the W.

I came home from work half way through the 3rd quarter to see Macaffer wasn't on Jones and thought that bet was gone for sure but a 5 point quarter in the 3rd was enough for him to get the unders.

Good to have a strong finish and get back to the positives after a slight loss in the first week of posting.

Overall tally since posting:
13-1-8 for +3.33U
 
Butler said:
Adding:

Cloke > Howe, Shaw and Sylvia @2.70 (1U) luxbet

Cloke should have a field day today with Frawley out and plenty of supply. Hopefully he has his kicking boots on.
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Lol mustve been nervous one for you. Started poorly, sylvia on fire early, H.Shaw came storming home.

N.Jones under 84.5 scared the crap out of me when i didnt see Caff go to him and realsie he took Jamie Elliots role forward.

Still got the bickes

ROUND 10: +12.61U
Round 11: +9.97U

= +22.57U
 
Keystone agony said:
Lol mustve been nervous one for you. Started poorly, sylvia on fire early, H.Shaw came storming home.

N.Jones under 84.5 scared the crap out of me when i didnt see Caff go to him and realsie he took Jamie Elliots role forward.

Still got the bickes

ROUND 10: +12.61U
Round 11: +9.97U

= +22.57U
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Watched Cloke get in front of Sylvia and started to get excited. He then overtook Shaw by 3 points until Shaw kicked the ball towards Cloke who gave away a free kick haha Thought it was over then but he came through.

Some really good results you have put up so far! Those couple of massive plays have really payed off for you.
 
Butler said:
Watched Cloke get in front of Sylvia and started to get excited. He then overtook Shaw by 3 points until Shaw kicked the ball towards Cloke who gave away a free kick haha Thought it was over then but he came through.

Some really good results you have put up so far! Those couple of massive plays have really payed off for you.
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Yep something im noticing is that the betting agencies seem to have a good idea of past history but arent adapting to change with the current season (roles ect)
 
Sweet 16 (IAS)

Stanton $8
M.Murphy $19

Are the ones i like.

I think Deledio under 103.5 is a fairly good bet (Adelaide doing some roles every week with their side)

I even think Ablett under 125.5 (but wouldnt bet against it).

Sam Mitchell under 101.5 (Carlton are doing some roles every week and hed be a target) - they arent allowing huge numbers against nonethless

Swan under 122.5 (Has only scored over that 3x this year albeit done it both last 2 weeks) i think he is a good chance for a possible Picken tag. Hes hard to bet against though.

M.Murphy over 102.5 (Not throwing around too many hard tags the hawks, Shiels maybe, but he is every chance could not tag or go to Judd/Gibbs and even if he did tag would Murphy do enough anyway).
 
Favorite bet this round so far:
Watson over 100.5 @ $1.80 - Watson has cracked the ton 7/11 games this year. Besides his stinker against GWS he failed to do so against Cartlon, Sydney, and Freo - arguably the 3 hardest teams to score against and all with a hard tag.

Other potential bets:
  1. Mayne over 79.5 $1.87 - Mayne has scored over 79 in 4/5 games at Patterson this year (avg 91)
  2. Martin under 98.5 @ $1.87 - Martin's 2 big scores this year were against Port and Dogs (...bad teams). Other than that he's scored 106 against Geelong and 99 against Freo. 6/10 under 98.5.
  3. Dangerfield under 100.5 @ $1.87 - Dangerfield has scored over 100 3/10 times this year. He's never cracked the ton against Richmond.
Still waiting on Sunday games to come out.

Thoughts?
 
I like the watson one cant see him getting a heavy heavy tag and even then still good enough ot beat it, he has looked a bit bashed up of late though so i wouldnt be counting my marbles

I like that Mayne one

Id keep clear of Martin, its a risky bet he can go 40 or 140 so the risk aint worth it remember your only gaining 87 cents per dollar not even 2-1 and hes 6/10 of going under or 4/10 going over

It really depends with matchups IMO, im not saying i dont think he will, havnt looked into it i just wouldnt bet on him.

He doesnt really have an ideal matchup either from the crows, Reilly out now aswell?

Also wouldnt with Dangerfield, Richmond havnt been tagging this year albeit are a hard team to score against. He will likely go H2H with a tiger star and when he goes H2H he surpasses that score more often then not. Richmond would have to go against tactics they have employed all year if a tag goes to him.
 
Yeah I agree with Martin and Danger. Will steer clear.

Watson my main bet at the moment.
I'll probably put a little on Mayne.

Nothing tonight.
 

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