KA's Dream Team bets

Remove this Banner Ad

Been away for work so have only just had time to have a look at the DT markets.

Not a lot tonight. I have taken Murphy > 96.5 points @1.66 for 2U (Luxbet). He might get Shiel running with him but a very good chance he will be without a tag.

You are keen Keystone agony betting on Franklin overs with the form he has been in. I hope you are correct though.
 
Added a couple of extra after having a better look.

Birchall under 86.5 @1.95 (1U) Luxbet

The money is going the other way but if Armfield is the perfect match up for Birchall with his pace and outside play.

Scotland > Birchall, Robinson, Judd @4 (1U) Luxbet

This is just a value bet. Scotland has been very average lately but at his best he is a very good DT seagull. Birchall with Armfield, Judd is an average DTer and Robinson is very hit and miss. I'm not overly confident but at $4 he is worth a unit.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

It's been a long time since I have seen such a low scoring DT game. Only 3 hundreds and none from Hawthorn who are one of the best DT sides going around. Will keep a keen eye on Carlton markets once they return from their bye. You can almost guarantee they will put 3 tags on. Armfield to their most damaging half back flanker, Curnow to an outside mid/winger and Cachia/Carrazzo to an inside mid. All have been very successful so far.

A poor start for me with Murphy going down with injury. Not sure whether he would have made it either way as he just isn't the same DTer that he has been before Malthouse.

Scotland got over the 2 I was worried about in Robinson and Birchall but Judd played well in his 250th to top score. At least Birchall got me some back.

On to today:

Grigg under 98.5 @1.80 (1U) Luxbet

Grigg has been in great DT form covering this line in his last 3 matches but his scores with Ellis and Conca in the team haven't been as impressive.

He has covered this line 2/8 with Ellis in the team and 1/4 with Conca. Add to that, Ellis was sub in those 4 games that Conca played in so with both playing, Grigg could see his midfield/wing time drop significantly.

There is a good chance that Conca might start as sub on his return game but I'm still confident in the unders.

Ablett over Stanton @1.50 (2U) Sportsbet

Even with Hird talking up a match up between Watson and Ablett I'm confident Hocking will go to Ablett. Even with that happening, I just can't see Hocking being able to keep up with him around the ground.

Stanton didn't look himself last week and is always a good chance to get tagged. I expect him to bounce back but not enough to beat the best DTer in the game.

Ablett also scored a massive 162 last time these sides met whilst Stanton has scores of 116 and 93 from his two matches against GC.

Watson over Goddard @1.85 (1U) Betstar

Predicting Watson to bounce back from his form slump against GC. His record isn't great against the expansion teams but GC are a far more competitive side this year so I expect Watson to come out full steam.
 
What the feck...Watson's line is now 107.5 after posting about the value of 100.5 yesterday.
And I didn't bet on it because I wait until game day. Not sure if $1.80 for that line is worth it now.
 
Just not sure about Dangerfield. He wasn't tagged last game against Richmond and only scored 80 odd. Don't know if they will run someone with him or not but him playing off half back worries me. I don't think that will help him break that tag as Sando thinks it will.

Would like to see how his scoring is affected before putting money on him.

I agree that there isn't really much so far this round. Sportingbets usually the best for me but they don't have much on offer this round so far.

Luxbet has been ok but they don't put their markets up until a couple of hours before the game and their markets change so quickly. Need to find out exactly what time they put them up.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Up and down weekend so far with me. Grigg had a big final quarter to fly past his line, Goddard smashed Watson and Rockliff fell short but Ablett beat Stanton and Birchall and Hanley went unders. At a loss over the weekend so hoping for a good day today as I have gone reasonably hard.

Luxbet markets just opened up and straight away the markets moved. I refreshed just as they came up and in the time it took me to click on 2 bets they had already dropped.

Hartlett under 84.5 @1.80 (2U) Luxbet

Really struggles under the tag and should get it again today. Was kept to just 35 last time he played GWS and hasn't beaten this line since round 5.

Boak over 94.5 @1.80 (2U) Luxbet

This has already come into 1.66. Has gone over this line in 7 out of the 10 games this year and had 116 last time round against GWS.

K.Cornes over 104.5 @1.80 (1U) Luxbet

Has beaten this line 6/10 and scored 116 last time they played GWS. Averages 120 against bottom 8 sides.

Griffen under 106.5 @1.85 (2U) Sportingbet, under 107.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet

Macaffer should return to his tagging role on Griffen and he struggles under the tight tag.

Pendlebury under 111.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet

Lower will go to him and looks reasonably well suited to tagging Pendles. The 5/11 games that Pendlebury has gone over this line have been against North, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong and Melbourne. He only received a tag in one of those (St Kilda, Jones).

Boyd over Swan, Pendlebury, Griffen @4 (1U) Luxbet

Swan should win this but at $4 Boyd is worth a shot. Good chance that Boyd will be the only one out of those 4 that doesn't get tagged. I would have him as the 2nd favourite out of the group.
 
Ended up being lucky the line changed so much for Watson. Would've been so cut.
No bets this week didn't get on Mayne pretty boring weekend but just don't think there's much.
I like your Hartlett and Boak bets though Butler and the Hanley one was amazing maybe I should sign up to LuxBet.
 
samwise said:
Ended up being lucky the line changed so much for Watson. Would've been so cut.
No bets this week didn't get on Mayne pretty boring weekend but just don't think there's much.
I like your Hartlett and Boak bets though Butler and the Hanley one was amazing maybe I should sign up to LuxBet.
Click to expand...

I have accounts open with almost all the bookies and I find Sportingbet and Luxbet to be by far the best. Sportsbet have some decent ones pop up as well.

I find Luxbet to have the best but because they don't put the market up until a couple of hours before the game it gives less time for research and the market moves so quick that you have to know what to look for before they come up.
 
Absolutely nothing going right for me this weekend.

Macaffer has dominated each one of my midfield premiums he has played on this year but just got towelled up for 45 point quarter. All 3 bets are going to lose at this stage for a fairly decent loss.

Ah well, onto next weekend.
 
I ended up on a loss of 0.13 Units in a very tough week, Centrebet seemed pretty spot on with their bets now i just wonder how many are betting with them now in regards to fantasy because its alot of average footballers/unknowns that they have in the market.

Basically they are not putting in any Key forwards, possible tagged players or players that have been involved with the sub vest much before (not as much with the last one).
 
Ok back into it. Have gone reasonably hard on a couple of plays early.

N.Riewoldt > 88.5 points @1.80 (4U) Sportingbet

Averaging 103 this year and is back to his best. No Frawley and should get a heap of supply.

Watts over R.Stanley, A.Davey @2.60 (3U) Sportingbet

Screen Shot 2013-06-21 at 2.35.10 PM.png

New coach = New role for Watts? It's unknown how much time he will spend in the middle but it's a good sign. Happy to take him over a small forward that struggles to get a touch and a key back sitting back in Melbournes forward 50.

Armitage over Dal Santo @1.87 (1U) Sportingbet

Dal Santo should get tagged even with Jordie out. It's a bit of an unknown with the new coach but not many teams let Dal Santo run around by himself.

Griffen over Deledio, Martin @2.75 (1U) Sportingbet

I can't see any good match ups for Griffen in that Tigers list. Maybe Jackson but Griffen is on fire lately.

Deledio was left free last week across half back and that won't happen again. Good chance Picken will go to him. Martin has been playing well but still has second half fadeouts.

Monfries over Mcglynn @2.05 (1U) Sportingbet

Watched Monfries closely last week and picked up that he was played in a slightly different role. He was often the spare man in defence and was used in link up plays through the middle which is good for DT. Picked up 30 possessions last week but hoping for a more kick happy game from him this week.

Franklin under 92.5 @1.80 (2U) Luxbet

Not only does he have to contend with Mackenzie (who is in very good form) but he will also have Hurn and Waters going third up against him. Only averages 80 and his last 3 scores against WC have been 76, 76 and 90 (last one was against M.Brown).
 
I like them except for armitage over NDS (With jordie out) i wouldnt be betting on a new coach tagging with someone else.

Also not sure on Griffen over Lids and Martin. Lids and Martin both scored huge against them early in the year, i expect Deledio to be tagged but even he got away from picken earlier in the season and the dogs are hardly shutting down stars and Martin went 144 from memory vs dogs early on? i wouldnt be betting on that,

I like how youve smashed the NROO one. I love the franklin one aswell.

Im not sure on the watts one or the mcglynn/monfries one not enough research into either. (Edit: just saw that watts picture, good/great pickup. Maybe an onball role, maybe a tagging role to replace jordie? who can say.

However i will say that i think Boak out may open up more midfield time for Monfries and that couldve possibly been the case last week.

Is there a Ben Mcevoy bet anywhere?

Or Goldstein?
 
Boak went off the ground with a minute or two left in the game last week so didn't have an effect on Monfries. Might be worth looking into Ebert over JPK with Boak out though. I noticed Ebert has been spending less time in the middle which should change now.

The Griffen bet is risky but I see value in it. I think he should be favourite on current form and potential match ups so happy to take the bet.

Armitage is a good chance to win even if NDS avoids the tag. Loves playing lower ranked sides (136 v GWS and 112 v GC) . Dunn has been used to tag midfielders this year so I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to NDS.

Haven't seen any markets including McEvoy or Goldstein. The NM markets aren't up on sportingbet yet and Luxbet won't put up their markets until 4 hours or so before the game.
 
Butler said:
Ok back into it. Have gone reasonably hard on a couple of plays early.

N.Riewoldt > 88.5 points @1.80 (4U) Sportingbet

Averaging 103 this year and is back to his best. No Frawley and should get a heap of supply.
Click to expand...


averages 70 at the G over the last 3 seasons, 74 with the sub game, McDonald is a better match up than Frawley.

Have a look at Montagna over Riewoldt @ 1.75

Leads the head to head at the G 7-3 over the same time period, definite overs at $1.75
he'll be the link man between the Saints backline and forward line and enjoys the width at the G, which given the Saints will dominate the backline more than the midfield should see him get plenty of the ball.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

KA's Dream Team bets

Similar threads

H
HTP Purton Bets
Replies
11
Views
1K
HTPunter
H

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top