Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Knightmare said:
I'm more than happy to contradict a list management team when I believe their methodology is suboptimal as I would say is the case with North Melbourne in this case, particularly in the list position they're in. It's a case of shedding still able enough veterans when the youth is unextrodinary, adding more questionable youth (Atu/Young) and not making the most of the numerous trade period opportunities (aside from Stephenson who I feel is a great value recruit) and not making the most of this historic opportunity to add delisted talent during this delisted free agency period. When you're a bad team with a list that is light on and needs to add more talent and more good players, you need to make the most of every opportunity available to you and my opinion is North Melbourne haven't done that and have delisted the wrong guys then gone after the wrong guys.

I'm not sure why you're promoting North Melbourne's defence. Tarrant is excellent. McDonald had a breakout year and was excellent. Walker I like and rate in defence. Atley is serviceable. The rest of that group aren't any team best-22 players and are downgrades on those North Melbourne previously had.

Corr I don't rate. Less than 0.5 contested marks per game (outside the top 150). Outside the top 150 for intercepts per game also. Nothing wrong with him as a stopper and his ball use is fine. But if I want a key defender, I want someone who takes intercept marks and can take contested marks. There needs to be some component of that even if their role is to play primarily as a stopper. Nullifying a contest is no longer enough in the AFL game, scores come from turnovers. You need the forward pressure up the ground and the intercepting behind the ball to create those scores off turnovers and prevent the opposite by not allowing the opposing from half to get the ball to ground and create opportunities for their crumbers and pressure forwards to create opportunities.

If you asked me whether I'd prefer to have Corr, Perez, McKay, Hayden and Young. Or as an alternative have the chance to have Daw, Pittard, Wood (he can be better in defence),Williams and Ahern as defenders. I'd take the latter group and at each position. I don't LOVE any of those group you're proposing, Corr included. They're more guys where you hope they develop, but you just don't know if they'll be good enough.

As a methodology I completely disagree with North Melbourne's approach to list management this offseason. It's copying Melbourne's failed formula from 10 years ago where they did away with the bulk of their veterans and left little in the way of leadership or able established footballers. Put a bunch of young players of mild at best talent together and it's not only going to hurt performance and memberships in the short term but it's also going to more importantly over the long term hurt rather than help the development of their youth.

It's incredible when you look back and actually analyse lists past. Were Melbourne able to maximise the development of Jack Watts, Tom Scully or Jack Trengove?

What about Carlton with Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer?

Why did those scenarios work out worse than the likes of Pendlebury to Collingwood? Buddy to Hawks? Selwood to Geelong? Dangerfield to Adelaide? Why were those guys more successful? It's a simple formula. Have a good head coach, good assistant and development coaches, have a good captain, have good veteran leadership, and through all that develop a strong culture.

Who did Pendlebury have? Mick Malthouse and a bunch of assistant coaches who went on to senior head coaching jobs. What about as leadership? How about Buckley/Maxwell/Burns/Clement/Rocca etc.
Who did Buddy have? Clarkson. Future head coaches. What about as leadership? How about Hodge/Mitchell/Crawford/Vandenberg etc.
Who did Selwood have? Thompson. Future head coaches. What about as leadership? How about Harley/Ling/Bartel/Corey/Scarlett/Milburn etc.
Who did Danger have? Several coaches and several assistants, but each coach he played under had a 50% or higher win record. What about leadership? Goodwin/McLeod/Thompson/Rutten/Edwards. They still had that veteran core.

North Melbourne's current position is one where there are still a small few veterans, but until there are young players worth bringing into the senior team (I disagree with your identification of North Melbourne's talent in that I don't see them as a collective as being worth bringing in) then there is no point moving on still reasonable senior players. What needs clearing out is North Melbourne's youth with a view towards bringing in better players. And I'd be bringing in a better leadership group and I'd be looking at the broader coaching group and deciding on what's a formula that will work better, as what has been there certainly hasn't gotten the club anywhere meaningful, with North Melbourne's last top-4 opportunity being in 2007.

As for North Melbourne's midfield, I'd actually spoken North Melbourne's midfield up throughout the year if you go through my posting history. Simpkin is good already and LDU I agree with you can develop into a piece with his late season signs positive and suggesting he's while slower than expected at least trending now in the right direction finally as someone who certainly has the talent to become good. Cunnington is good. Anderson is fair and plays a role. Dumont is another good piece, though outside does his best work. T.Thomas could eventually play some midfield, Bonar will need to improve though first and hasn't to date done enough. Zurhaar I like forward of centre as a target and good user but don't feel like he'd be good enough through the midfield, though more than happy to be proven wrong if he can add that to his game. Stephenson is mostly a forward at this stage though I give him a chance to make it on a wing given he has both the speed, aerobic capacity and is an able mark, but as a midfielder he'd need to radically improve the contested side of his game so I'm not seeing that in his future either.
If I'm picking that midfield, Cunnington, Anderson and Simpkin start inside with LDU rotating mid/fwd and Kennedy able to flip mid/fwd with him. Ziebell can rotate through the mids. Polec I like on the outside, and Hall I still view as viable for selection consideration. Kennedy is hardly old at just 23 and fits the age demographic North Melbourne will be looking to add to. If you don't rate Kennedy on talent, fair enough, but I see him as someone who on a lot of teams is genuine best-22 quality as someone I'd back to win 10 contested possessions per game while still getting forward and taking a few important marks and kicking nearing a goal per game. I think as a mid that's more than enough to make him justifiable for a lot of teams, with his improvement this year really impressing me.
If a star midfielder is brought in be it this year and/or next year, I don't see that as a problem. Having a good number of good mids is a good problem to have, and a lot of those guys can play forward. Polec/Hall/Cunnington/Ziebell are nearing the end, so if there is a pick where a mid is the best available player, there is room for North Melbourne to add more good mids.



Who did North Melbourne just waste senior list positions on? Atu and Young. Corr I don't rate and would prefer not to have to utilise as one of my key defenders given he's neither an intercepter nor a contested marking threat.

Who should North Melbourne have added?
Through delisted free agency: Connor Ballenden (upgrade on Corr/McKay and big upgrade on Durdin), Matthew Kennedy (good rotation mid who can also rest forward - and I feel like for a lot of teams he could be a good 4th best mid), Marty Gleeson (aside from McDonald would be instantly North Melbourne's next best general defender and depending on preferences some may say Atley, but I prefer Gleeson if I could have one or the other as the better stopper, intercepter and ball user), Noah Gown (with Brown going would be a good choice to pair with Larkey, particularly if McDonald goes pick 1).

It seems your understanding of delisted free agency in this case is the incorrect understanding.
– At List Lodgement (1), any Player a Club wishes to transfer under this provision is delisted per the AFL Rules, for the following reasons:
Allows all 18 AFL Clubs to consider offering a delisted Player a Primary List spot for 2021.
Allows a delisted Player to receive free agency for life status.
– During the Delisted Free Agency Period (2), Clubs will be permitted to transfer a maximum of two Players who were previously on the Club’s 2020 Primary List directly onto their 2021 Category A Rookie List.
– If the Club and Player cannot come to an agreement, the Player will be considered a Delisted Free Agent, per the AFL Rules, and has the opportunity to nominate for the 2020 NAB AFL National Draft or the 2020 NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft.
The deadline for List Lodgement (2) is 2:00pm (AEDT) Monday November 30, 2020.

Key dates for the 2020 NAB AFL Draft Period
Wednesday 25 November
• List Lodgement 1
• Nomination of Draft Eligible Father/Son Players Lodged
• Nomination of Draft Eligible Northern & NGA Academy Players Lodged
Thursday 26 November
• AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) Commences
Sunday 29 November
• AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) Closes
Monday 30 November
• List Lodgement 2
• Out of Contract Listed AFL Primary List Players Draft Nomination Form and Player Request for Removal from List Form Lodged with AFL
• Final date for Primary List delistings
Tuesday 1 December
• AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) Commences
Wednesday 2 December
• AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) Closes

Where are we up to? We're still delisted free agency period 1 as per the dates listed above which allows clubs to secure the likes of Ballenden/Kennedy/Gleeson as free agents. This still gives these delisted players opportunities to join rival clubs as delisted free agents before the clubs that have delisted them (yes Ballenden/Kennedy/Gleeson have all been formally delisted) can be added onto their rookie lists directly, and not having to go through the draft to do so.

I'm not news reporter. I'm a freelance journalist and a draft analyst, but I have indeed having a strong interest in this delisted free agency period in particular been following the unique rules that have come about this offseason with the list size reduction.

Now that we are up to date with the rules. Let's move onto the interesting stuff with talent what I find interesting.

What about during the trade period who should North Melbourne have targeted?
Callum Coleman-Jones, Jack Sinclair, Darcy MacPherson, Lachie Fogarty, Josh Caddy, Alex Sexton, Alex Witherden, Dylan Roberton and Sydney Stack all as budget and underutilised types if available on the cheap all are among a quick shortlist of guys who could have improved North Melbourne's best 22 and have provided good position fits based on existing list needs, as with the delisted free agents available. Of those incredibly only Fogarty and Witherden moved, and none of them were must keeps for their existing clubs.

This is why I talk about this offseason as the transferring of wealth. From the unintelligent to the intelligent. North Melbourne were smart enough to go get Stephenson, but they've entirely missed the opportunity to add a long list of players who are plug and play best 22 and can improve the list immediately at no meaningful cost. And North Melbourne are hardly alone in missing opportunities, clubs across the competition really have failed to realise the opportunities that this trade period in particular presented, with only a small few capitalising, though even many of those that did could have in my view done even more to improve their lists to greater degrees through the trade period.

I've already gone through the North Melbourne midfield and gone through why I like North Melbourne's midfield on a relative basis, but feel there is always opportunity to add. Phasing out Dumont would be a mistake. He's a good outside mid. All the mids you mention barr Bonar who also has a lot of developing to do are capable. I'm not however of the opinion that having just those guys is enough. Midfield isn't the number one need of North Melbourne by any stretch, but when there is opportunity to add able mids at little or no cost, or when they represent decisive best available value through the draft, absolutely you go get that.

Like with the previous poster I have already responded to, I see no reason to talk up Corr, Perez or Hayden and I share none of your excitement about any of them at this point in time. Perez and Hayden are still developing players who you're hoping will be good enough while Corr is below average by position.

What I can agree on to some extent with is that there will be mid-season draft opportunities to add worthwhile talent, though if history tells us anything, clubs will probably be looking at a lot of mature agers as opposed to those overlooked from this year's pool more than they should and a number will still make it through into the draft proper as Jake Riccardi was last year, albeit from the VFL, one year removed from playing as an overager in the TAC Cup. I do however view the delisted free agency opportunities favourably despite this, and this is yet another opportunity that only adds fuel to my view that you want to clear list positions of players who aren't best 22 players and get rid of any speculative/unlikely to develop youth in favour of opportunities during this trade and delisted free agency periods, with at the same time still a look ahead in as much as least as to have opportunities available to add talent during the year.
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30 year old, broken pelvis Daw is better for North than 22 year old, top 10 in B&F Ben McKay?

Soon to be 30 jasper Pittard is better for north long term than 19 year old, looked great in 3 games after a knee reco Flynn Perez?

29 year old Jamie Macmillan is better than grand final key position player, top 10 b&f 26 year old Aidan Corr?

Question. What club added better “youth” in the trade period than North? You say we didn’t add any other than Stephenson. But who is better than Stephenson from his trade period?

Stephenson, reliable 26 year old kpd, 2 speculative young picks for free. Without a coach.

Delisted a bunch of perpetually injured, 30 year olds, not up to afl standard players that no one else looks interested in.


I think 99.99% of people would say that was a reasonable off season.

Now pick 2 and 11.
 
the big lebowski said:
30 year old, broken pelvis Daw is better for North than 22 year old, top 10 in B&F Ben McKay?

Soon to be 30 jasper Pittard is better for north long term than 19 year old, looked great in 3 games after a knee reco Flynn Perez?

29 year old Jamie Macmillan is better than grand final key position player, top 10 b&f 26 year old Aidan Corr?

Question. What club added better “youth” in the trade period than North? You say we didn’t add any other than Stephenson. But who is better than Stephenson from his trade period?

Stephenson, reliable 26 year old kpd, 2 speculative young picks for free. Without a coach.

Delisted a bunch of perpetually injured, 30 year olds, not up to afl standard players that no one else looks interested in.


I think 99.99% of people would say that was a reasonable off season.

Now pick 2 and 11.
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this is reasonable, i also didnt like what Mason Wood was producing as a forward, so delisting him was fair imo, unless he is 3 times better as a tall defender?, i dont know if he was anything more than a fringe player?

i also was a fan of Lachlan Young in his drat year in 2018, happy to see him rookied and then have a good run at the Dogs before being traded to you guys, i dont think you did perfectly, but i dont think you went backwards and at least took the risk to improve with youth that could be better.
 
Knightmare said:
You can win a game of footy by a lot, but you can still track contest for contest what happens. And there are moments that can be worth taking from that.

Talking talls, Josh Walker was another last offseason, and again I was screaming from the rooftops, someone go get him, and he's someone North Melbourne did well adding and is an able component for them. So Brisbane actually did have a good mix of talls in the NEAFL even.

With the likes of Walker and Keays running around in the 2s. That's why I was watching Brisbane's NEAFL side. Looking at how Ballenden is tracking. Watching McFadyen who I like and feel can come good. Watching the Academy prospects when they're there. If I'm tracking a state league side and watching them frequently as I did with Brisbane particularly in 2019, it's purposeful watching. There are guys I want to watch.

Wooller is a good key forward and is one where I feel like he could join a state league side next year and prove in a better competition to be someone. I had a long think about including him in my delisted free agency video, but felt he was just outside the calibre of player I'd want as a key forward for me, but not far off as someone I view as more likely good depth than that optimal long term best 22 guy.

I'd definitely agree with you in suggesting Ballenden isn't as advanced as those guys.

On the other hand. Ballenden is better than Payne in 2019 and still prefer him to Payne. Better than Fullarton and again still prefer him. I like him to the much older Eagles. I feel like he'll reach a higher level than McStay if he gets that continuity of role, with McStay someone I'd class as someone I'd rather not have to play, and if I had to play him, it would be as a key back rather than key forward. Sam Skinner - always hurt so didn't offer any value. So I don't rate him as that worst tall from 2019. Ballenden just lacked opportunity to play consistently where he is best suited. Give a tall continuity of position and role and they'll play their best footy. KPPs need to know what is expected of them and have the opportunity to do their thing every week. So I'm definitely not going to categorise Ballenden as Brisbane's worst tall. He's not in that conversation for me. I'm looking at him as very much untapped.
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Sam skinner hasn’t been hurt for 3 years,
was the turning point in the second quarter of the 2019 NEAFL grand final with 8 contested marks, goals and we went from even at 1/4 time to 6 goals up and game over at half time. If given the same opportunity as mcStay and Hipwood Brisbane may have had a competitive forward to win a grand final.
Hope he gets that opportunity at another club to show Fagan that the only way to improve from now is to take a risk than be predictable and lose.


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Flyin Lion said:
Sam skinner hasn’t been hurt for 3 years,
was the turning point in the second quarter of the 2019 NEAFL grand final with 8 contested marks, goals and we went from even at 1/4 time to 6 goals up and game over at half time. If given the same opportunity as mcStay and Hipwood Brisbane may have had a competitive forward to win a grand final.
Hope he gets that opportunity at another club to show Fagan that the only way to improve from now is to take a risk than be predictable and lose.


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3 ACL's I believe? That's rough so early on.

Came back mid 2018.

Last year he played something like 18 or 19 games in the NEAFL? Big improvement but still missed some games mid season from memory.

As a 23 year old who has had injury issues (never played 20 games in a season as best I can recall since he has joined Brisbane) and hasn't shown at AFL level he's a clear best 22 calibre player, he really needs to come back through the state leagues and make a case there.
 
I admire Knightmare's ability and patience to stick to his guns and views without getting flustered when under fire for his opinions. It's good to have him around on this board and his non group think ratings of some players even though I disagree on certain ratings particularly his Ballenden rating, Connor has Josh Schache levels of competitiveness/physicality and IMO that is something that is largely innate and hard to coach into someone's game.
 
I was curious why KM was talking up North picking up a proven spud in Ballenden. I just looked up his 2017 power rankings, Ballenden started the year at 4 (Sam Hayes at 3). He didnt drop out of KM's top 10 until just before the draft, when it was obvious nobody else rated him.
 
Far be it for me to defend Knightmare, but if you’re not interested in his opinions, then you don’t need to be in the thread about his opinions. Have some respect.
 
Knightmare said:
You can win a game of footy by a lot, but you can still track contest for contest what happens. And there are moments that can be worth taking from that.

Talking talls, Josh Walker was another last offseason, and again I was screaming from the rooftops, someone go get him, and he's someone North Melbourne did well adding and is an able component for them. So Brisbane actually did have a good mix of talls in the NEAFL even.

With the likes of Walker and Keays running around in the 2s. That's why I was watching Brisbane's NEAFL side. Looking at how Ballenden is tracking. Watching McFadyen who I like and feel can come good. Watching the Academy prospects when they're there. If I'm tracking a state league side and watching them frequently as I did with Brisbane particularly in 2019, it's purposeful watching. There are guys I want to watch.

Wooller is a good key forward and is one where I feel like he could join a state league side next year and prove in a better competition to be someone. I had a long think about including him in my delisted free agency video, but felt he was just outside the calibre of player I'd want as a key forward for me, but not far off as someone I view as more likely good depth than that optimal long term best 22 guy.

I'd definitely agree with you in suggesting Ballenden isn't as advanced as those guys.

On the other hand. Ballenden is better than Payne in 2019 and still prefer him to Payne. Better than Fullarton and again still prefer him. I like him to the much older Eagles. I feel like he'll reach a higher level than McStay if he gets that continuity of role, with McStay someone I'd class as someone I'd rather not have to play, and if I had to play him, it would be as a key back rather than key forward. Sam Skinner - always hurt so didn't offer any value. So I don't rate him as that worst tall from 2019. Ballenden just lacked opportunity to play consistently where he is best suited. Give a tall continuity of position and role and they'll play their best footy. KPPs need to know what is expected of them and have the opportunity to do their thing every week. So I'm definitely not going to categorise Ballenden as Brisbane's worst tall. He's not in that conversation for me. I'm looking at him as very much untapped.
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If you watched the Lions NEAFL in 2019, I honestly don’t know how you can say Ballenden looked a better prospect than Payne or Fullarton.

There’s not one reserves team watcher on the Lions board (and there’s actually a lot on there), who would agree with you.

Both Payne and Fullarton are much more athletically gifted than Ballenden, have a thirst for the contest and use their body.

Yes Ballenden is a better kick, but he doesn’t have the same package over all.

As for McStay, he plays a very specific role in our forward line, often to the frustration of many supporters, but he’s doing exactly what the coaches are asking of him (apart from the dodgy kicking for goal obviously).

And a big part of the role is crashing packs, creating a contest, and bringing the ball to ground.

Ballenden just doesn’t have that in him. Doesn’t have the athleticism of McStay, not even close, doesn’t have core strength to push through a contest.

The general belief amongst reserves team watchers is that Fullarton will eventually take over the McStay role.

Honestly I genuinely question if you’re actually watching Lions NEAFL, or understand the roles players are being asked to play.
 
Apex36 said:
Kennedy is on his last legs. Both WA teams will be coming hard for McDonald from day one. There’s a reason why Adelaide are considering Thilthorpe over him, and it’s not because Thilthorpe is a better player.
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The Eagles drafted Kennedy's replacement three seasons ago, Oscar Allen.

William's is a forward / ruck.

McDonald wont last to pick 4. Swans will snap him up if still there are their 1st IMO.
 
Knightmare said:
Is Ford going where Worpel did sliding though? If I recall correctly, Twomey I don't believe rated Ford inside his top-40. He's a reflection it seems of the mainstream view, and tends to base his views largely on what recruiters think from what I can gather.

Ford has his fans on bigfooty, but I'm not sure within the industry he's rated as say something like a first rounder. I have Ford somewhere around 35 on my own board for example, with the view that I'd have wanted to see him play midfield this year to be able to justify having him higher and assuming he can become that at the next level. I can't speak for club recruiters, but I feel like going somewhere probably second round is roughly what we'll see. If he was there in the third round, I'd think he'd represent good value, but not great on the level of a Worpel who I felt was a clear best-25 player in his draft.
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Your final draft had Worpel at around 45 when I thought he was best in the draft.

I think rather than apply occams razor, I noticed how the majority kept talking him down with each passing month. Other players had become flavour of the month and kept pushing past him.

I've seen Eddie ranked as high top 15, but again people like to get creative and start getting enamored with speculative picks.

I don't see many weaknesses in Ford's game. I rate him along the top 7. Could it be he looks rugged with his mullet like Worpel did? I noticed in Twomey podcast they were talking about how good Perkins hair was. We've all seen Moneyball so let's not pretend that people can't get past their subjective biases over objective analysis.
 
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Knightmare said:
That thought process is correct.

Gold Coast are already married to two who they can draft outside of the national draft and there is a third they're considering.

I wouldn't be surprised around that selection if West Coast considered Isiah Winder as a Western Australian talent and one who across half-forward can generate some meaningful offence and looks developable. Zane Trew could be another local who could get a look if West Coast want a young inside mid.



A Richmond or Geelong can take those chances ultimately and may be those clubs more inclined. West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and St Kilda I could make similar arguments for.

I find with low ladder teams they tend historically to have a lot more KPPs to choose from and tending to stay bad for multiple years it means numerous chances to add more KPPs whereas for the better teams, particularly when they stay up for a long time it's rare good KPPs make it to their picks through the draft and generally need to be added during the trade/free agency period, or as mature agers. So that more than anything makes me think a Baldwin would be more likely to end up joining one of the better sides late second round or third round for a rough range.
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Agree an Winder and Trew for the Eagles.

The comment about teams who stay top not having access to quality talls for some reason does apply to West Coast.

Yes Kennedy was landed in the Judd trade however Darling 26, McGovern rookie, Barrass in the 30's, Oscar Allen at pick 21 and young William's at 37 show the quality talls you can get with later picks.

The Eagles cant draft a decent mid with later picks for some reason but good talls they seem to find with ease.
 
Sweet Jesus said:
Makes you wonder whether delisting Luke Partington was that smart.

I've also heard Tyler Brockman mentioned as someone WC like. But he's more of a tricky HF with good wheels?
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Knightmare can you add anything on why Partington didnt get a second chance after getting delisted and winning the Magarey Medal?
 
Knightmare said:
I'm looking at this offseason broadly as a transfer of wealth.

In finance it's basically like if you have an economic crash. A lot of people end up unemployed, lots of others broke/homeless and the majority end up poorer/worse off, while those very select and educated few who understand the situation and what they should be doing can take advantage and get ahead and create separation. so eg. if we're going to go through a period of hyperinflation you want to be buying assets and borrowing money, or if it's a period of deflation you want to allow markets to fall and when the chaos is at the worst buy up.

The context in the AFL is basically like we're in a recession. For some the sky is falling, for others, there is opportunity to make the most of. A lot of parties are running around panicked and not knowing how they should be responding and a lot of clubs haven't put themselves in position to make the most of the opportunity that is this offseason.

How can that opportunity happen? This year it's about making the most of the reduction in list sizes. Acquiring players through the trade period who are unwanted/undervalued. It's easier with those list size reductions to gain them. Clubs need to clear list positions and make room to capitalise on the delisted free agency market. There are some unusually good players available to add, and types who under normal circumstances wouldn't be available, and even good players in younger age groups more amazingly.

What Geelong have done to position themselves well, and maybe it's in part out of luck in trading Tim Kelly last offseason, but despite having a contending caliber list, Geelong had the cap space to add three legit high level players who fill list needs and make Geelong stronger. Geelong as you suggest have used the assets available at their disposal effectively, and Geelong are one of few I place in this category. It's a year where through the trade period clubs can get a lot better, and at a higher than usual rate.

One opportunity I feel like is being missed is, I feel like if a club say intends to take three players in the draft, I'd be positioning myself to have the list spots available to take several of these delisted free agents. Those first five I'd tell any club to just pick them up and then maybe one of those other guys depending on list needs can be a fit. And Hately is joining Adelaide, so that leaves four. But I'd say to most clubs, go get Ballenden, get Gown, go get Kennedy and Gleeson. And if you have a particular list need one of those others would fill, they're more than able gets as AFL quality players by position who can play a role to a strong standard.

In Geelong's position regarding trades. I don't so much look at the equation so much as players for picks as much as players and picks gained for picks lost. And those 2021 picks gained aren't worth a lot less than those 2020 picks spent which makes that Cameron trade from a pick perspective a lot less costly than would be assumed.

If Geelong had those picks. Maybe it's something like Oliver Henry, Nathan O'Driscoll and Bailey Laurie added. Is that going to do much short term? For me it's a clear no. And in that range, it's unlikely there would be a suitable key forward. In Geelong's situation, and the Higgins trade was relatively the more costly one given his age and stage of career, but Geelong are contending for now and have a possibly 3 year window with this current group, and maybe with further trades and free agency moves that can be extended further - a bit like how Hawthorn kept on extending that window further and further with rival talent pickups at bargain basement prices.

On Ballenden and Gown. Go watch the u18 Champs of Ballenden from back in 2017 I believe it was. He played back and he was decisively better. It's just for Brisbane with so many good key defenders they've more-so played him forward than back. He's a guy I'd say 'you're a key defender now and you're staying there' and give him that continuity of position and give him senior opportunities and he can be valuable as one of those guys clubs just aren't yet aware can play. If I'm Geelong, as with other teams, I'd say go get them. There are numerous existing players on the list and even at the same positions I favour them ahead of. Gown as a key forward is a strong contested mark, hits the scoreboard and while he's good overhead he's good enough at ground level and brings good pressure for someone his size/type. He's a genuine option you can go to and he's someone I'd give another couple of years to develop and maybe in a Geelong context when Hawkins would retire he is primed and at that right age/stage to step in and step up and play to a capable standard by position. Gown in 2018 was #21 on my draft board and was very unlucky not to feature inside my top-20. He's one of those a bit like a Ballenden where at least going off of his first season in the VFL, just as with his end of TAC Cup year in his draft year, he can really play and people haven't been paying enough attention.

Macreadie I don't rate at all. He's a state leaguer v Ballenden who I feel like can be a genuine best-22 key defender for a club. Ballenden has his covered in defence as the more complete footballer. Stronger 1v1, taller but much better intercepter and can rebound better also. Has greater versatility though I wouldn't be looking to utilise it. I see substantial separation.
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Interesting points on a football recession and a redistribution of wealth.

Makes me feel less worried on holding a weak draft hand at the Eagles but list spots.

Geelong seems to be targeting older 30 plus plug and play recruits rather than picking the better younger DFA or trades. I can see the Eagles taking the younger approach.

Jake Patmore from Port is one young mid who is unlucky, Young Cedric.Cox from the Lion's could be another as is Stoddart delisted from the Swans. Add Witherden and Langdon and you have five 21 - 23 year olds several with games experience.
 

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Lore said:
Far be it for me to defend Knightmare, but if you’re not interested in his opinions, then you don’t need to be in the thread about his opinions. Have some respect.
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People are interested in his opinions on the draft, which is what this thread is supposed to be about. But when he starts spouting nonsense on topics he clearly knows little about he deserves to be called on it. His comments on North's list management in this thread are laughable.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Interesting points on a football recession and a redistribution of wealth.

Makes me feel less worried on holding a weak draft hand at the Eagles but list spots.

Geelong seems to be targeting older 30 plus plug and play recruits rather than picking the better younger DFA or trades. I can see the Eagles taking the younger approach.

Jake Patmore from Port is one young mid who is unlucky, Young Cedric.Cox from the Lion's could be another as is Stoddart delisted from the Swans. Add Witherden and Langdon and you have five 21 - 23 year olds several with games experience.
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There are a few names on the delisted free agents and trade period worthy of selection. I like what eagles have done. Witherden offers more than any player in the draft outside the top 20 and was grabbed for peanuts. It's simple. if a player who is cheap can walk into your best 22 then grab them. It's a no brainer really.
 
Jason mp said:
I admire Knightmare's ability and patience to stick to his guns and views without getting flustered when under fire for his opinions. It's good to have him around on this board and his non group think ratings of some players even though I disagree on certain ratings particularly his Ballenden rating, Connor has Josh Schache levels of competitiveness/physicality and IMO that is something that is largely innate and hard to coach into someone's game.
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In a key forward competitiveness/physicality helps but in key defenders I'm more than happy to have a finesse ball reader.

Schache similarly shouldn't be played forward. He either needs to play as a tall wing where he can sneak forward and doesn't have to engage in 1v1 marking contests. Maybe he can do that because he has the endurance, has the skills, can take his leadup marks, and can sneak forward for some easier marks and make the most of his opportunities when he does get a shot at goal. Or alternatively he needs to switch into defence. He can read it, he covers the ground, has the skills.

With talls, as with any position on the field. I advocate assessing the strengths of a player. Look at the compatibility of a player at each position. Do their mix of strengths and weaknesses lend themselves to playing their present positions? What about this other position?

That's why all year I've been speaking about Tim English as a tall wing. He's non competitive through the ruck. Whether it's going for the hitout, or following up. On the other hand, he's an elite endurance runner who covers as much ground as midfielders and he has the ball reading and marking gifts. By position that would be an incredible weapon, and he's not by position going to get as exposed, with his strengths to look even better as on a wing he's not going to be matched up with anyone who can remotely compete with him.

Positions need to be looked at logically. If they've got key forward talent and can kick 1.5+ goals a game, and do that every year, keep them forward and don't mess around with a good thing. It doesn't matter what way they're doing it - whether they're a freak at ground level or contested marking force. If you can read the ball in flight to a high level and take a mark but don't have key forward talent. Put them in defence. So many key forwards who have moved back have looked great, and particularly those better ball reading, better marking types, who may not necessarily have the speed or the ground level craft. If they're a good mark and elite endurance athlete, I'd love to see them on a wing and see what kind of problems they can cause through there.

perplexed said:
I was curious why KM was talking up North picking up a proven spud in Ballenden. I just looked up his 2017 power rankings, Ballenden started the year at 4 (Sam Hayes at 3). He didnt drop out of KM's top 10 until just before the draft, when it was obvious nobody else rated him.
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Why did Ballenden start high on my board in 2017? Performance. Have to reward a game with 9 marks (3 contested) and 5 goals v Tasmania. Seeing him during the u18 Champs is when he feel back and I starting feeling like he's a key defender, and not someone I'd want to draft as a forward.

His draft year and NEAFL play was even solid, there were by the end of the season a few others I slightly preferred by the end of the season with Ballenden less-so dropping as much as feeling more positive about others. Seeing a top-11, Ballenden was solidly in that next group which was pretty even.

briztoon said:
If you watched the Lions NEAFL in 2019, I honestly don’t know how you can say Ballenden looked a better prospect than Payne or Fullarton.

There’s not one reserves team watcher on the Lions board (and there’s actually a lot on there), who would agree with you.

Both Payne and Fullarton are much more athletically gifted than Ballenden, have a thirst for the contest and use their body.

Yes Ballenden is a better kick, but he doesn’t have the same package over all.

As for McStay, he plays a very specific role in our forward line, often to the frustration of many supporters, but he’s doing exactly what the coaches are asking of him (apart from the dodgy kicking for goal obviously).

And a big part of the role is crashing packs, creating a contest, and bringing the ball to ground.

Ballenden just doesn’t have that in him. Doesn’t have the athleticism of McStay, not even close, doesn’t have core strength to push through a contest.

The general belief amongst reserves team watchers is that Fullarton will eventually take over the McStay role.

Honestly I genuinely question if you’re actually watching Lions NEAFL, or understand the roles players are being asked to play.
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As a key forward when you're not kicking a goal per game, not good for 100+ marks per 20 games, that's not good enough by position. McStay because he has the contested marking capabilities would at least be more reasonable in defence. Absolutely his forward pressure is good and that's why he's there aside from his contested marking/bringing it to ground, but my position I'd still have higher output expectations.

Ballenden has never been an athlete. Wasn't in his draft year and isn't now. Key defenders don't have to be athletes. If they can read it like he can, take intercept marks and use it, he's already at an advantage. He's someone where you need to look at his strengths. When you're a tall who reads the ball to a high level, and you don't have the game to make it as a forward, put him back.

Roby said:
Your final draft had Worpel at around 45 when I thought he was best in the draft.

I think rather than apply occams razor, I noticed how the majority kept talking him down with each passing month. Other players had become flavour of the month and kept pushing past him.

I've seen Eddie ranked as high top 15, but again people like to get creative and start getting enamored with speculative picks.

I don't see many weaknesses in Ford's game. I rate him along the top 7. Could it be he looks rugged with his mullet like Worpel did? I noticed in Twomey podcast they were talking about how good Perkins hair was. We've all seen Moneyball so let's not pretend that people can't get past their subjective biases over objective analysis.
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In 2017 I had Worpel at 23 in my power rankings, and drafted at pick 40 to West Coast. Why he was rated a lot lower than he went was because he was built like a man-child and there was an assumption that he had less development remaining. Additionally his kick as a junior while he always had the penetration, he was very unreliable. There was no clear second position where other than midfield you could say - book it, he can play there also. My comments at the time were he's underrated by club recruiters as someone who I felt like was year 1 ready to play, but when you're picking someone at #1 there still needs to be something that makes you think a player has improvement in them, and with Worpel I can't say I saw a great deal. Why I thought he wouldn't go as high as I thought he would? Clubs want midfielders who have other tricks, mids who are better kicks. Those less flashy, effective mids more years than not fall lower than they should, so where Worpel landed was no surprise at all, when you see guys like Luke Parker go around the same region as just one of many other examples.

I'm not sure who has been rating Eddie Ford top-15. Has the class. Aerial capabilities. Evasion. Good athlete. Can win his own ball. So he definitely has a good number of tools at his disposal. I do see him requiring at least a good year to develop. I'm questioning where his best position is. I've found him to be inconsistent last year with a number of quiet/uninfluential games mixed in with better games. Is his endurance good enough to play through the midfield? I'm not in the camp with Ford where I feel like he's a definite beyond doubt AFL footballer. He's someone I would have liked to have seen more evidence from this year. He's more someone who has a chance to make it, but will need some good development going into him. And maybe - because he has put in a lot of work this year, maybe he has improved a lot. Just based off 2019 play, I don't have him on that level. With all the tools he has though. Highly draftable though, no question. Unlike Worpel though, I wouldn't feel confident enough to consider him all that strongly inside the first round.

We've had some strange hair-do's over the years. There has it has felt like over the years almost a bias against the more interesting hair-do's. Be it Luke Dahlhaus, Gryan Miers, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti undrafted for a few years there. Brodie Grundy dropped. Would be interesting to see how much impact that has on drafting. I can't say with my own rankings, hair-do, nor any other ascetics impact on my rankings.
 
Warhorse said:
There are a few names on the delisted free agents and trade period worthy of selection. I like what eagles have done. Witherden offers more than any player in the draft outside the top 20 and was grabbed for peanuts. It's simple. if a player who is cheap can walk into your best 22 then grab them. It's a no brainer really.
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Eggmollesse-Smith is another who surprised me. Saying that I was looking at the Tigers list thinking they may well cut some pretty decent depth players as they have so many.
 
Knightmare said:
On the other hand. Ballenden is better than Payne in 2019 and still prefer him to Payne. Better than Fullarton and again still prefer him.
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This thread is really entertaining recently. Nothing is happening on SUNS forum so I appreciate it.

In my view, you are way off in your assessments of North list and North supporters here know what they are talking about and rightly call you on it. But your assessment of Ballenden tops it off. It seems you always stick to your initial draft assessment no matter what and contrary to evidence and are not able to acknowledge mistakes. Sometimes it's OK to step back and re-assess.

Ballenden is a primary candidate to be de-listed next year from the rookie list. You can have a great kick but when the player is soft, can't compete one-on-one it's a very good chance he will not make it. It takes five minutes to watch and see that Payne and Fullarton are another level with regard to potential compared to Ballenden.

This really reminds me your assessment of Hall to be the best SUNS player when he left or how you persisted with Alex Johnston after his 6 ACLs to be the ideal recruit for SUNS and SUNS must get him. You see some nice traits but you completely disregards missing key traits that are necessary to make it - in case of Ballenden the ability to compete physically, mongrel.

Anyway, in the end, it's just sharing views on public forum and people are entitled to different views. It just surprises me how far off you are sometimes.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Knightmare can you add anything on why Partington didnt get a second chance after getting delisted and winning the Magarey Medal?
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Partington is one last year I agree was worth another chance. Was excellent last year and again this year for Glenelg. He's a smaller mid and more a pure mid which doesn't help. It's skills clubs were/are worried about not being good enough.

Obeanie1 said:
Interesting points on a football recession and a redistribution of wealth.

Makes me feel less worried on holding a weak draft hand at the Eagles but list spots.

Geelong seems to be targeting older 30 plus plug and play recruits rather than picking the better younger DFA or trades. I can see the Eagles taking the younger approach.

Jake Patmore from Port is one young mid who is unlucky, Young Cedric.Cox from the Lion's could be another as is Stoddart delisted from the Swans. Add Witherden and Langdon and you have five 21 - 23 year olds several with games experience.
Click to expand...

WCE I feel are well positioned and in a good spot. Witherden I like and felt was underutilised by Brisbane. Langdon can play a role. There are value chances late and DFA options also. With good scouting West Coast may find someone.

Patmore isn't someone I would have gone after. No games to my knowledge. Has had a few years in the system. As a smaller type, if after a few years you're not good enough to play senior games, it's unlikely that's going to change.

Cedric Cox has shown signs and has some speed and skill. He's one where at 23, I struggle to identify a particular position he'd be a clear best-22 player.

Stoddard I have considered during the season as he does have attributes with his speed a strength and he uses it well, but again he's not someone I see as a best 22 player. He's too uncontested to be viable. You can't play AFL games and average 2 contested possessions.
 
Obeanie1 said:
The Eagles drafted Kennedy's replacement three seasons ago, Oscar Allen.

William's is a forward / ruck.

McDonald wont last to pick 4. Swans will snap him up if still there are their 1st IMO.
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Allen is a good player, but he’s not a number 1 key forward. He’s a second/3rd tall at best.
 
perplexed said:
People are interested in his opinions on the draft, which is what this thread is supposed to be about. But when he starts spouting nonsense on topics he clearly knows little about he deserves to be called on it. His comments on North's list management in this thread are laughable.
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When someone comments on a laughable situation such as North's list management then chances are you wont be happy with what is being said.

North's list management is a shambles. Rawlings was poached after several very good years at the Eagles and reports are Rawlings recommendations are being ignored by senior figures. Look at the length of the cuts this year, the volume is quite astounding.

Saying that I can see North doing well this draft / DFA period. People say 'the draft is compromised' but if you have decent picks you will land good players. And after that North will have far more quality young and older DFA to fill list spots.
 
Apex36 said:
Allen is a good player, but he’s not a number 1 key forward. He’s a second/3rd tall at best.
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At best?

Allen would be the #1 key forward at Collingwood Apex.

The only reason he is playing 3rd tall at the Eagles is because of his youth plus Kennedy and Darling.

Post Kennedy Allen will be FF, Darling CHF and Williams forward / ruck. Darling will be #1 then Allen.
 
Obeanie1 said:
At best?

Allen would be the #1 key forward at Collingwood Apex.

The only reason he is playing 3rd tall at the Eagles is because of his youth plus Kennedy and Darling.

Post Kennedy Allen will be FF, Darling CHF and Williams forward / ruck. Darling will be #1 then Allen.
Click to expand...

As a young key forward playing under Kennedy and Darling is the perfect way to develop. Gets game time into him playing on an oppositions 3rd defender and also does not have the pressure of immediately being one of your teams main targets.
 
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