Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Phil85]

Hey knightmare,
What're your thoughts on Mitch brown? Seems like he'd be a good pick up for a lot of clubs needing a KPP

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knightmare,
What're your thoughts on Mitch brown? Seems like he'd be a good pick up for a lot of clubs needing a KPP

I watched all of Essendon's preseason games as I did with all teams, and I liked what Mitch Brown offered and he was that clear standout from that Essendon group. Where has that been hiding during his Geelong days? He did miss lots of time with injury, particularly early days which hurt his development, but he can really play and during his Geelong days I'd never really been convinced so Brown was a pretty cool discovery out of Essendon's messy NAB Challenge.

I wouldn't take Brown as a key forward, I don't think he is all that good up forward having played up forward in the past to more a depth/VFL standard, and key forwards to me should be all about superiority by position, but at centre half back more as your rebounding key defender, that's something each game he showed he can do pretty well. He can read the flight, take the intercept mark and mop it up, and is while not a great stopper, seemed sufficient and if not defending the oppositions best forward would probably suffice. Late/rookie draft I'd take him if I'm looking for that specific type. For me he can play that role at AFL level.

 

[Yoda_]

I never mentioned Ryder so I'm not sure how I'm underselling him?

He is fine as a ruckman. Not best few in the competition with Jacobs, Naitanui, S.Martin, Goldstein and Sandilands all clearly better. But Ryder would be among those few.

Ryder is better around the ground than Naitanui, Martin, and on par with those top 3 guys.

He doesn't impact games enough but he would be up there with them

 

[Knightmare]

Ryder is better around the ground than Naitanui, Martin, and on par with those top 3 guys.

He doesn't impact games enough but he would be up there with them

Stefan Martin is clearly the best ruckman in the game around the ground and it's not even close. He is better than Dean Cox was around the ground. He is just a lousy tap ruckman being a shorter ruckman.

Naitanui has the greatest impact of anyone historically through the ruck in terms of contested ball winning ability for a ruckman and that sheer power. But around the ground he isn't a factor as someone who wins one of the very highest percentages of contested ball v uncontested ball in the game.

Ryder probably after Martin and Jacobs would be that next better ruckman around the ground and below average as a tap ruckman.

But in terms of overall game as a ruckman - he is not a top 5 ruckman in the game and as mentioned before among those next few.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Mumford is right up there too!!

 

[Knightmare]

Mumford is right up there too!!

Mumford I wouldn't categorise as great around the ground.

His speciality is more in the contested ball winning/ground level/tackling aspects on the inside. On the outside, less impressive.

Mumford is the worst kick competition-wide and like Naitanui gets an extraordinary percentage of his ball on the inside. I consider that a positive because it shows their physicality and influence they have on games. But on the outside, as with most ruckmen. Nothing extraordinary.

 

[Team DJ]

Will Snelling and Hugh Haysman won the Powerade rising star award in the SANFL for their first and second league games respectively.

 

[TBellicious]

Knightmare how do you rate the two of Carlton's father sons, Silvagni and Bradley? Are they any good?

 

[grundog49]

Knightmare how do you rate the two of Carlton's father sons, Silvagni and Bradley? Are they any good?

Silvangi is good. Bradley is meh.

 

[TBellicious]

Also, Bailey Rice to St. Kilda? What makes you say that.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare how do you rate the two of Carlton's father sons, Silvagni and Bradley? Are they any good?

Bradley is small and has a long way to go. I can't realistically see him getting drafted, but mentioned him more out of general interest and I'll get questions either way.

Silvagni isn't a lock either and if drafted is a late/rookie pick. But he is someone with the opportunity to get drafted, he'll just have to earn a draft position through performance this season to find his way onto a list. 50/50 at this point that he is given a shot, so he has plenty of convincing to do still.

Also, Bailey Rice to St. Kilda? What makes you say that.

Bailey Rice is going ok as an efficient kicking back flanker this season. It has been reported in the past that St Kilda are the more interested at this point than Carlton. That's why St Kilda for now. That and given I already had two father sons listed under Carlton, I'm not putting Rice in an early draft round just at this point.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

This is a topic I really hoped someone would bring up.

My viewpoint has not softened with the first round or not at all regarding key forwards, but my theory regarding key forwards has changed somewhat and has to a degree introduced a different set of criteria into play.

Where my perspective with key forwards has changed somewhat over the years is really in terms junior production which may be the most important criteria. Sam Day as an example. As a junior, he actually had really poor numbers. But it was just assumed looking at his physical profile and attributes that he could elevate his game. And it's from this learning that it doesn't happen that way, that I put my stock more into key forwards "with first round quality performance." In hindsight it shouldn't really be all that surprising that he is still the low production player he was as a junior.

My categories that I look at with key forwards and think of it as a rating out of 3, or one point in each category.
Production (are they taking lots of marks, kicking lots of goals?), talent (specifically do they have points of difference? - be it contested marking ability? ground level ability? etc) and upside (are they improving year on year and at a rapid rate?). 1 point if they completely tick that box, 0.5 if they partially tick that box, and 0 if they don't at all.

Joe Daniher is one example of a recent draftee where in this formula he came out on top. On production he was having some big games - sometimes 10+ shots on goal, other games with 10+ marks, so clearly he could perform, so in that category he would score 1/1. For talent - you're looking at a 200cm guy who can take a grab at the highest point and also has the ground level skills of a small, again 1/1 for talent because when he has it going, you can't defend that. Then upside - he missed time in previous years and showed improvement over the course of the season and that his progress was on an upward curve, again 1/1 for a total of 3/3.

Based on this points rating system:
3/3 equals your franchise level key forward - Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, Jon Brown, Lance Franklin etc.
2.5/3 equals your Tom Hawkins, Jack Riewoldt, Drew Petrie, Jay Schulz level talents where they're really high level key forwards.
2/3 equals your Kurt Tippett, James Podsiadly, Josh Jenkins where they're pretty good and you'd like to have them on your team.

Then if guys rate below the 2/3 standard, they're not much worth considering. With key position players all about quality over quantity, as it's no good having 5/6 key forwards, with none of them able making a difference to winning.

So you could phrase it more as less of an obsession over draft position and how everyone else evaluates talent, but more a strict assessment on the quality of the key forward and determining whether they are of a suitable level of talent to be worth taking, so that you are taking your first round quality key forwards or the cream of the crop.

This way I feel it still adequately respects the understanding that the good key forwards come early - primarily in the first round or through father son, with the odd prelisted/zone selection or however they come. Otherwise there are a small few who came second round - K.Tippett, Carlile, maybe someone else. Then Justin Westhoff a little older and James Podsiadly as a much older guy or Josh Jenkins not coming from AFL coming into things later/rookie.

But as it should be with all draft evaluations, it shouldn't be so much copying what others think, but rather backing in your evaluation, but also know what you're looking for. And the formula I have created for key forwards is the way I sort out the genuine AFL quality talent from the state league or local level footballers to determine whether they are good enough.

Very interesting - thanks.

I'm curious in finding out how you would have scored some of the "lower" options that I mentioned before in their junior years - Matt Taberner, Ben Brown and Josh Walker in particular. Without biasing your views with what you've seen now, do you remember enough of their draft year to assess them with your system? I suppose what I'm getting at is whether this system is still successful at picking those diamonds in the rough.

Also interested in seeing how your ratings system evaluates some of the recent late-draft KPFs - Mitch Harvey, Jonathan Freeman, Jonathon Marsh, Mitch McGovern, Jayden Foster and Reece McKenzie are some that immediately come to mind.

Sorry for the convoluted questions, haha.

 

[Knightmare]

Very interesting - thanks.

I'm curious in finding out how you would have scored some of the "lower" options that I mentioned before in their junior years - Matt Taberner, Ben Brown and Josh Walker in particular. Without biasing your views with what you've seen now, do you remember enough of their draft year to assess them with your system? I suppose what I'm getting at is whether this system is still successful at picking those diamonds in the rough.

Also interested in seeing how your ratings system evaluates some of the recent late-draft KPFs - Mitch Harvey, Jonathan Freeman, Jonathon Marsh, Mitch McGovern, Jayden Foster and Reece McKenzie are some that immediately come to mind.

Sorry for the convoluted questions, haha.

The evaluation and grading of exactly where everyone fits is open to interpretation. Particularly with those who aren't elite by position.

Taberner, Brown and Walker are 1.5s so they'd fit into the category of players I'd rather not have to have as one of my two key forwards.
Talent 0.5/1, production 0.5/1, upside 0.5/1 each. All have their various talents and relative points of difference without such an extreme level of superiority of talent. For production all do enough where it can be considered their production is passable without being terrific. And all are still young enough to improve further and are improving without improving at such a great rate that they project to become high level footballers.

The essence of the system is that the interpretations of each category are in the eye of the beholder to an extent. So there is no reason why it can't find a diamond in the rough if you're good enough at evaluating the talent and correctly assessing each talent in each area. And as with talent identification by anyone, it's going to churn out different results with each person likely to interpret each category differently, but the greater your tuning to each category, the better the results can be.

As for the others (based on pre-draft analysis):
M.Harvey - Talent 0.5/1 (big guy and has some traits), production 0.5/1 (good but not great numbers), upside 0.5/1 (improving at a good but not great rate). Total = 1.5/3.
J.Freeman - Talent 0.5/1 (athletic and has some traits), production 0/1 (struggled to have an impact as a junior), upside 0.5/1 (improving at a good but not great rate). Total = 1/3.
J.Marsh - Talent 0.5/1 (rare athlete and excellent at ground level, but undersized, poor kick, poor mark so ticks some but not all boxes), production 0.5/1 (as a junior had some big games but inconsistent with his down games), upside 0.5/1 (good but not great improver in the u18s). Total = 1.5/3.
M.McGovern - Talent 0.5/1 (athletic and has some traits but undersized), production 0.5/1 (for age ok but not spectacular production), upside (improving and has some traits but a few years older and relative lack of height limits upside) 0.5/1. Total = 1.5/3.
J.Foster - Talent 0.5/1 (has some traits but no unstoppable point of difference), production 0.5/1 (great tac cup production, but did it as an overager), upside (improved strongly as an overager but a year older) 0.5/1. Total = 1.5/3.
R.McKenzie - Talent 0.5 (dominant in some areas of his game with his marking, strength and athleticism but not a complete with ground level ability/skills/endurance not there and as such not a complete talent who will dominate all opponents), production 1/1 (mark, contested mark and goal per game numbers dominant by position for age), upside 1/1 (rate of improvement excellent with second half of last season a significant improvement on his first half and given he sat out 2013, with that year absent, lots of improvement remains). Total = 2.5/3.

With Reece McKenzie it's entirely possible the next person would have got a 1.5 or 2 while using the same formula, and I suggest most will. With some maybe not liking his production being limited to a set few areas - not that that worries me because he is so extremely dominant in the important categories by position, and same could be said relating to upside with some calling it more inconsistency than improvement, though I see it more as improvement given the difference between the first and second half of his season.
And it's based on that understanding on talent/points of difference by position, production based on what others have done previously and improvement and at what pace the good forwards tend to improve. And that's when with this formula you can get the evaluation right.

 

[Azul]

Any reason Bailey Rice would nominate St Kilda rather than the club at which his father played in a premiership?

 

[manny100]

Seems the Swans may have to trade off Tom Mitchell to get 'points' for the Academy and F/S picks this year. This was talked about last year but never eventuated. The Swans may have no choice now. KM what do you think the Swans could realistically get? Who would be interested in Mitchell??I would have thought mid to late first round given there are not many runs on the board?? Still plenty of time to get a few games this season. Heeney looks the goods already. How do Mills and Dunkley stack up against Heeney and Mitchell??

 

[Knightmare]

Any reason Bailey Rice would nominate St Kilda rather than the club at which his father played in a premiership?

Read post 361.

Seems the Swans may have to trade off Tom Mitchell to get 'points' for the Academy and F/S picks this year. This was talked about last year but never eventuated. The Swans may have no choice now. KM what do you think the Swans could realistically get? Who would be interested in Mitchell??I would have thought mid to late first round given there are not many runs on the board?? Still plenty of time to get a few games this season. Heeney looks the goods already. How do Mills and Dunkley stack up against Mills and Mitchell??

Mitchell can probably attract a late first round pick if he has a strong season and certainly teams with early first round picks would be chomping at the bit to get their hands on Mitchell with Carlton, Gold Coast, Geelong and St Kilda are some clubs that come to mind that could really use Mitchell. The other options would be those clubs with those early second round picks might be able to upgrade some of those later picks with pick switches to make the value more around the mark Sydney are looking for.

Sydney may be able to not only Mitchell but Sam Reid also could be another possibility as a further player who isn't a critical piece but could also attract some pretty good offers as he is still young enough to have appeal. Maybe those two could even go together in a package and you might have a Carlton, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs or similar throwing their first round picks at Sydney.

As for how Mills and Dunkley stack up v Mitchell. They're both taller, bigger midfielders with better rounded talent. Mitchell is productive as anything and can have a very strong career in his own right at AFL level, but his talent isn't on that same extremely high level. Mills and Dunkley, like Heeney both have the opportunity to be best 50 players in the game. T.Mitchell is more a solid best 18 player on most teams. So there is a difference in the levels of talent.

And Dunkley is one who seems to really be getting badly underrated, some talk about him as a mid or even late first round pick. For me it's disrespectful not to have him inside the top 5, as someone I see as a best 1-3 player in this upcoming draft. As that Josh Kennedy equivalent in this draft as that tall strong bodied mid with the best contested ball winning and inside game in this draft (some might argue Mills and they're in the same conversation re. inside game), then in addition to that he is the best tackler in this draft, very strong overhead and is a goalkicking threat when pushed forward of centre. So he is terrific in his own right.

 

[manny100]

Read post 361.



Mitchell can probably attract a late first round pick if he has a strong season and certainly teams with early first round picks would be chomping at the bit to get their hands on Mitchell with Carlton, Gold Coast, Geelong and St Kilda are some clubs that come to mind that could really use Mitchell. The other options would be those clubs with those early second round picks might be able to upgrade some of those later picks with pick switches to make the value more around the mark Sydney are looking for.

Sydney may be able to not only Mitchell but Sam Reid also could be another possibility as a further player who isn't a critical piece but could also attract some pretty good offers as he is still young enough to have appeal. Maybe those two could even go together in a package and you might have a Carlton, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs or similar throwing their first round picks at Sydney.

As for how Mills and Dunkley stack up v Mitchell. They're both taller, bigger midfielders with better rounded talent. Mitchell is productive as anything and can have a very strong career in his own right at AFL level, but his talent isn't on that same extremely high level. Mills and Dunkley, like Heeney both have the opportunity to be best 50 players in the game. T.Mitchell is more a solid best 18 player on most teams. So there is a difference in the levels of talent.

And Dunkley is one who seems to really be getting badly underrated, some talk about him as a mid or even late first round pick. For me it's disrespectful not to have him inside the top 5, as someone I see as a best 1-3 player in this upcoming draft. As that Josh Kennedy equivalent in this draft as that tall strong bodied mid with the best contested ball winning and inside game in this draft (some might argue Mills and they're in the same conversation re. inside game), then in addition to that he is the best tackler in this draft, very strong overhead and is a goalkicking threat when pushed forward of centre. So he is terrific in his own right.

Thanks KM, cheers

 

[DJ75]

Hi KM,
Wondering where you think Matt Allen (Glenelg) sits at the moment. He's a 6 foot 3 forward who runs midfield times and can rotate through the mids.
He had a couple of handy games in the U18's so far;

Game 1: 28 disposals, 13 marks, 4 tackles, 7 I50, 6 goals 3

Game 2: 25 disposals, 8 marks, 6 goals 2

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Wondering where you think Matt Allen (Glenelg) sits at the moment. He's a 6 foot 3 forward who runs midfield times and can rotate through the mids.
He had a couple of handy games in the U18's so far;

Game 1: 28 disposals, 13 marks, 4 tackles, 7 I50, 6 goals 3

Game 2: 25 disposals, 8 marks, 6 goals 2

Matt Allen is a potential riser up the draft standings.

Given you're asking about Allen, I assume you know a bit about his sporting history as a star cricketer who has decided this year to focus on his footy.

I haven't looked through his stats yet for the early rounds of this season, but those are obviously terrific numbers and if he continues to elevate his play, he has the opportunity to be a first or second round selection.

Height is a relatively limiting factor as a possible key forward at only 191cm, but if he can play midfield and play both positions to a high level, and do it at reserves or even better league level. That's what I'll be looking for from him based on what you're suggesting about his role.

I look forward to seeing what he can do through the u18 champs. That should better give a feel as to where he sits, big picture.

 

[DJ75]

Matt Allen is a potential riser up the draft standings.

Given you're asking about Allen, I assume you know a bit about his sporting history as a star cricketer who has decided this year to focus on his footy.

I haven't looked through his stats yet for the early rounds of this season, but those are obviously terrific numbers and if he continues to elevate his play, he has the opportunity to be a first or second round selection.

Height is a relatively limiting factor as a possible key forward at only 191cm, but if he can play midfield and play both positions to a high level, and do it at reserves or even better league level. That's what I'll be looking for from him based on what you're suggesting about his role.

I look forward to seeing what he can do through the u18 champs. That should better give a feel as to where he sits, big picture.

Agree with you - has potential to be a big riser on the draft boards, but much will depend on U18 champs.

I do know his background, and I believe he is a bit taller than 191. I believe he is about 193cm and closer to 95 kg - basically same measurements as McCartin. Will get a better guide once stats come out for the champs.

I suspect long term he is probably somewhere between Tom Lynch (Adelaide) and Pavlich in terms of being a forward who can run through the middle. More of a natural marking forward than Lynch, but not as much/good as Pav. For his size, he runs exceptional times in all the running tests.

If he gets it together in the champs, he could be a top 20 pick easily. I'm pretty bullish on his prospects.

 

[eastfreo75]

Any reason Bailey Rice would nominate St Kilda rather than the club at which his father played in a premiership?

Spoke to a kid who plays with Bailey Rice said that Bailey is a mad Blues supporter and wants to play for the blues.

Also, the kid knows Dunkley and said that Dunkley wasn't committed to the Swans and have back issues.

 

[Membling]

Spoke to a kid who plays with Bailey Rice said that Bailey is a mad Blues supporter and wants to play for the blues.

Also, the kid knows Dunkley and said that Dunkley wasn't committed to the Swans and have back issues.

Already know about him not committing. Mainly due to the whole bidding situation and the uncertainty around it.

Back issues didn't know. Hopefully if he does want to come, will push his value down a bit

 

[grundog49]

Any reason Bailey Rice would nominate St Kilda rather than the club at which his father played in a premiership?

Maybe the fact he has a better chance of winning a premiership with St.Kilda than Carlton in the next 20 years.

 

[Cleric]

Would the WA clubs have been happy giving up what the new f/s and academy sytems requires if they had the ability to get O'Meara, Hogan and Jack Martin for the same price?

 

[Yoda_]

Keep an eye out for former Lion Isaac Conway (Weribee) who has not put a foot wrong all pre season Knightmare.
25 + 2 goals and 8 tackles to back up his 29 possessions and 10 tackles this weekend.