Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[blueiris]

Keep an eye out for former Lion Isaac Conway (Weribee) who has not put a foot wrong all pre season Knightmare.
25 + 2 goals and 8 tackles to back up his 29 possessions and 10 tackles this weekend.

Dam it just typical a players leaves the Lions and has a stellar season

 

[Knightmare]

Would the WA clubs have been happy giving up what the new f/s and academy sytems requires if they had the ability to get O'Meara, Hogan and Jack Martin for the same price?

An interesting question.

Looking at the guys the WA clubs have taken during those years. I personally would take any of those three for the whole selection of picks by either of those clubs from those years. They're just on another level.

So the WA clubs would without question love that deal, and just having that opportunity to do that.

Imagine Fremantle if they could have Hogan? Or West Coast with O'Meara or Martin.

Hogan after Fyfe would be deemed their second most valuable player long term.

O'Meara or Martin would be deemed West Coast's best young midfielders.

Big wins any time you can get that superiority of talent.

Keep an eye out for former Lion Isaac Conway (Weribee) who has not put a foot wrong all pre season Knightmare.
25 + 2 goals and 8 tackles to back up his 29 possessions and 10 tackles this weekend.

Noted. And it's highly surprising that Brisbane showed him the door so quickly. So great to see him respond so positively.

Not sure whether you've watched any of Collingwood VFL, but Gus Borthwick has really caught my eye as someone if needing another midfielder as a rookie at seasons end with further improvement looks exceptionally draftable, particularly with that late December '96 birthday. He already looks like an established VFL midfielder which is incredibly impressive for someone so young.

 

[Yoda_]

Noted. And it's highly surprising that Brisbane showed him the door so quickly. So great to see him respond so positively.

Not sure whether you've watched any of Collingwood VFL, but Gus Borthwick has really caught my eye as someone if needing another midfielder as a rookie at seasons end with further improvement looks exceptionally draftable, particularly with that late December '96 birthday. He already looks like an established VFL midfielder which is incredibly impressive for someone so young.

One thing I noticed last year was that changing of the guard at VFL level. No more is it the Sewell, Cliftons, Pinwills, Batsanis, but it's now the Cavarra's, Tynan's, Bolton's etc. very draft able guys indeed.

Could name a dozen guys worthy of a place on an afl list

 

[blueiris]

Just a quick question if/when Brisbane finish last what happens with Keays? Would we have to take him with pick 1 if teams bid a top 5 pick on him meaning we would miss out on another key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

One thing I noticed last year was that changing of the guard at VFL level. No more is it the Sewell, Cliftons, Pinwills, Batsanis, but it's now the Cavarra's, Tynan's, Bolton's etc. very draft able guys indeed.

Could name a dozen guys worthy of a place on an afl list

Every year is a new year. Those younger guys seem to be maintaining hope that they can either get onto or get back onto an AFL list.

It seems on the other side of things there was a period of optimism among those older guys after Podsiadly, Stephenson and Callinan all got selected and as such we saw a number of those older guys really producing. But given none of those types have gone in recent years, the young guys with a few overagers and similar succeeding seem to be going after the AFL dream hardest.

It may be an over-analysis, but none the less, it's a trend I'm seeing.

 

[Knightmare]

Just a quick question if/when Brisbane finish last what happens with Keays? Would we have to take him with pick 1 if teams bid a top 5 pick on him meaning we would miss out on another key forward.

Others may correct me if I'm wrong, if a club with as an example bids pick 10 on Keays, and Brisbane have pick 5. I see no reason why Brisbane can't use those later picks to accrue the appropriate points to also get Keays.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah I imagine they'd have to give up say their 2nd and 3rd or 4th rounders in order to get him under those circumstances.

 

[blueiris]

Yeah I imagine they'd have to give up say their 2nd and 3rd or 4th rounders in order to get him under those circumstances.

Considering how bad we're going you'd think Brisbane would forget about Keays and just draft kids if that was the asking price

 

[aussierulesrules]

Considering how bad we're going you'd think Brisbane would forget about Keays and just draft kids if that was the asking price

No way, you go the top end talent every time under those circumstances and walk away laughing. Every club in the comp would be happy to give away say picks 25 and 45 or 65 for someone who is considered worth pick 10.

 

[blueiris]

No way, you go the top end talent every time under those circumstances and walk away laughing. Every club in the comp would be happy to give away say picks 25 and 45 or 65 for someone who is considered worth pick 10.

It would definitely destroy our future if he did a knee and never played again after 1 game and it's not like we're Sydney who can afford to take the risk

 

[Knightmare]

Considering how bad we're going you'd think Brisbane would forget about Keays and just draft kids if that was the asking price

Keays is one of the best players in this draft class. And is not only excellent through the midfield but possibly the most damaging mid of all in this draft class when used forward of centre.

I can't possibly imagine how giving up a second and third round pick as an example would prove such a task if that was the outcome.

I'd forfeit Collingwood's 2nd, 3rd and 4th round selections if it meant adding Keays. He is just that good.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It would definitely destroy our future if he did a knee and never played again after 1 game and it's not like we're Sydney who can afford to take the risk

That hardly ever happens though and it is a risk that every single club would very happily take. It's only costing you one extra draft pick, which just means that instead of picking up someone with say pick 45 or 65, you end up picking up someone else with say 65 or 85 instead. You may even be able to get whoever you were wanting at 45 or 65 at 65 or 85 anyway!

 

[blueiris]

Keays is one of the best players in this draft class. And is not only excellent through the midfield but possibly the most damaging mid of all in this draft class when used forward of centre.

I can't possibly imagine how giving up a second and third round pick as an example would prove such a task if that was the outcome.

I'd forfeit Collingwood's 2nd, 3rd and 4th round selections if it meant adding Keays. He is just that good.

So would you take Keays over a key forward and defender who we desperately need

 

[Knightmare]

So would you take Keays over a key forward and defender who we desperately need

Brisbane have the opportunity to utilise trade week and free agency.

If you need a key position player and you need one now. The draft is not the way to go about it. You're waiting 3-4 years even with correct talent identification until you develop someone into an AFL relevant player.

And outside the first round you're not likely to get a guaranteed AFL quality key position player, particularly with forwards, the good ones come inside the first round, and if Brisbane still have that first round pick in addition to Keays. There is not a thing to complain about.

On the Brisbane list I'm seeing a lot of tradeable players. Leuenberger is an obvious one, serving no usefulness in the same team as Stefan Martin and he may leave as a free agent and get Brisbane a further second round pick. Mitch Golby may hold some value. James Aish may ask out. Those players as three that come to mind probably hold enough currency to add some pieces, including a key position player or two.

Then Mitch Brown (ex Geelong) who was delisted could pretty easily come in late draft as either a forward or back. A Brett Eddy if he has another strong season may be a further mature key forward option.
On opposition lists Charlie Dixon, Levi Casboult, Jack Redpath could be among some cheap options as some big forwards who can take a grab.

And that's all before considering the talls Brisbane are likely to gain through the academy Hipwood as a forward and Nate Dennis as a ruckman who can also play some key position.

So it's on Brisbane to make something happen. Because there are some serious opportunities available. But the bigger the pieces Brisbane are willing to put on the table, the better the players that could come in may be.

Throw a package of at GWS and for all you know you may be able to get Patton or maybe Sam Reid from Sydney as two examples of established forwards who are surplus. Perhaps Brisbane can get Lachie Henderson back. Put forward a serious and worthwhile offer, and things can happen.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Knightmare, if you had to guess, at what pick in the draft do you see a team bidding on the Syd, GWS and Bris academy/fs (to include Dunkley) players?

I ask this mainly because if Mills attracted pick 1 and Dunkley pick 5 Sydney would need to invest a whole lot - possibly two drafts worth as well as a Mitchell/Reid type with the new bidding system in place...

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[Knightmare]

Knightmare, if you had to guess, at what pick in the draft do you see a team bidding on the Syd, GWS and Bris academy/fs (to include Dunkley) players?


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Heeney pick 1 at this stage.

Jacob Hopper should attract a top 10 pick.

Keays and Dunkley around pick 10 likely will be bid.

Those are the major bids to that will be placed. After that it's second rounders onward.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Heeney pick 1 at this stage.

Jacob Hopper should attract a top 10 pick.

Keays and Dunkley around pick 10 likely will be bid.

Those are the major bids to that will be placed. After that it's second rounders onward.

Assume you meant Mills.

I also added a bit just after your quote.

So the Swans could be forced to match pick 1 and 10 with their discount for Mills and Dunkley. That's gonna take quite a bit of pick and player restructuring.


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[Membling]

Assume you meant Mills.

I also added a bit just after your quote.

So the Swans could be forced to match pick 1 and 10 with their discount for Mills and Dunkley. That's gonna take quite a bit of pick and player restructuring.


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Would wipe out both this and next years without trading. Could be worth it.

 

[Knightmare]

Assume you meant Mills.

I also added a bit just after your quote.

So the Swans could be forced to match pick 1 and 10 with their discount for Mills and Dunkley. That's gonna take quite a bit of pick and player restructuring.


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Correct re Mills.

I've been watching too much Sydney AFL of late obviously.

Gaining those two will be restrictive from a draft perspective. But when you can gain that level of superiority of talent, it hardly matters.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Would wipe out both this and next years without trading. Could be worth it.

Pretty much what I posted a few posts back.

Using the proposed bidding points table I worked out Sydney would need to use their first 4 picks on Mills alone if a club bid pick 1 - iirc - and that's NOT including Dunkley. Pretty sure the Swans will need to either use next years top pick and/or find another decent pick via a trade in the case Mills is bid with pick 1 and Dunkley pick 10.


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[Knightmare]

Would wipe out both this and next years without trading. Could be worth it.

It can work pretty seamlessly for Sydney.

Tom Mitchell is surplus through the midfield and can pretty easily be traded for a late first round pick.

Sam Reid can be moved and not much would change.

Then some of the lower level guys on the list could be traded even for later picks. Harry Marsh, Daniel Robinson as some examples may with good seasons gain some external interest.

It just depends on how desperate Sydney are to have the quantity of picks still available. And with Sydney's list 1-40 pretty good. Just minimise list changes would be my recommended strategy.

 

[manny100]

Under the proposed system the example given is last years Dees bid for Heeney at pick 2. Under the proposed system (unless their has been very recent changes) the Swans after their 25% academy discount would have had to give up picks 18 and 37 with pick 38 slipping back to pick 70. Lets face it throwing in pick 37 with pick 38 slipping would not have been a 'biggy' for the Swans. Based on this I expect a similar requirement this year. Dunkley will be a cheaper but will likely require a Mitchell/Reid trade - at least one anyway. A bid of pick 8 for Dunkley would after 15% f/s discount require 1318 points which is a pick 11 they would need to trade for. Or say a pick 14 and mid 3rd rounder.
Not 100% sure how Keays will work. Say Lions get pick 1 and a club bids pick 5. The lions after their 25% discount would require their 2nd round plus their 3rd round and a 4th. Pick 5 after discount requires 1409 points. Say Lions 2nd round is pick 20 = 912 points, 3rd round is pick say 39 = 445 points, 4th say 59 = 158 points.
Pick 1 plus Keays would be likely worth their draft????? Probably!!

 

[Membling]

Under the proposed system the example given is last years Dees bid for Heeney at pick 2. Under the proposed system (unless their has been very recent changes) the Swans after their 25% discount would have had to give up picks 18 and 37 with pick 38 slipping back to pick 70. Lets face it throwing in pick 37 with pick 38 slipping would not have been a 'biggy' for the Swans. Based on this I expect a similar requirement this year. Dunkley will be a cheaper but will likely require a Mitchell/Reid trade - at least one anyway. A bid of pick 8 for Dunkley would after discount require 1163 points which is a pick 14 they would need to trade for. .

From my understanding, we can dip into next years picks, so a trade isn't necessary.

However, would be prudent to trade a player or split picks

 

[manny100]

From my understanding, we can dip into next years picks, so a trade isn't necessary.

However, would be prudent to trade a player or split picks

Not sure but I stuffed up the discount for Dunkley. Its 15% not 25% so I edited my post. If they decide that they do not need Mitchell and or Reid they may be happy to trade. Lets face it the Swans list is already very good and all they will want is a little more top shelf to keep the era of dominance going.

 

[Snake Charmer]

What chances are bushrangers pair Kyle Galloway and Jake Marshall to ty drafted?