Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[HollyZholm]

Hearing that Harley balics parents aren't too keen on their son moving to wa.

They should consider themselves lucky, he nearly didn't even get picked. Ross the Boss will turn Harley into a man, none of this mummy's boy business.

 

[Determinant]

hypothetically the person works at gws. corporate support is plastic - it comes directly from AFLs national sponsors not locals.

My apologies KM, I didn't realise I was replying to a troll, will cease forthwith.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, I think the Crows will be looking in their own backyard mainly at guys like Tahana, Snelling, Haysman, Brind, Sullivan, Hewett and maybe Surman. I think all are likely given consideration with the least likely Surman. Do you really rate any of those guys??

Adelaide will know the SA talent well, so there is no reason not to take local talent if they see them as strong value selections and good list fits.

A few of those guys you mention have interesting games.

Tahana has talent and has a good offensive/defensive balance to his game and has some versatiltiy. Not a big guy and I don't know what his best position is, but he has some AFL traits which make him a possible.

Snelling is a very advanced midfielder and was very good at League level and managed big numbers. He just relatively lacks some polish with his footskills making him look more like a state leaguer than AFL standard footballer.

Haysman is an excellent athlete but small and lacks size and the contested side to his game.

Brind is a big boy and in the front half can do some damage but he needs to slim down and develop AFL standard conditioning before we know how good or otherwise he can be. I speculate if he improved his conditioning he would have a shot.

Sullivan showed promise last year but has hardly played this year. Not a super tall ruckman but has his fans.

Hewett through the midfield and up forward has shown some promise and may be worth a shot.

Surman probably isn't good enough through the ruck but down back showed some signs that with more time down back he may be able to develop.

Going into the rookie draft there are few I'm particularly excited about. My top 45 ranked players from my power rankings have all been drafted with no remaining players I am overly strong on seeing drafted.
*Moving out of SA, Daniel Capiron and Nick Dodge are the two I most want to see drafted as two I don't feel are receiving enough acknowledgement. Josh Wagner of the mature agers I'm most like to see picks. Chris Jansen I'm open to seeing drafted and Clint Hinchliffe and Jadyn Brind are two others I feel are underrated and worth a rookie position. Otherwise I'm not overly fussed as to two else gets selected or misses out.
But others will rate a different combination of the remaining players.

KM what you think of the dogs draft. We were all absolutely over the moon the get collins, thought he was no chance to slide to our pick. Adams looks like he can play straight away. Mixed reviews on Dunkley and his speed and kicking, obviously we saw something in him to bid on his with our first pick.

I think the Dogs have again done very well and I have the Dogs as among the draft day winners. Dunkley is a solid get and in the 20s is a suitable get who has a shot at breaking into that midfield rotation with further development. Those who say Dunkley can't kick or run are right. But he is a competitor and wins the contested ball and tackles like a machine around the ball. Can also to some extent push forward and be a factor to a limit extent. So there is something there.

Collins was an exceptional value get and if he works out, he could really be fantastic when considering the rate of his development this year and the combination of his shutdown ability as well as his intercept marking and 1v1 ability. There is enough there, if he can get past his lack of athleticism.

Adams is a good get and someone who may be able to play next season and provide a better option to some of the current key defenders. Like Collins though more athletic Adams also can beat his guy (though not the same 1v1 player) and also provide that balance with some rebound as an able intercept mark but then runner out of the back half and ok kick. He shouldn't be expected to be excellent right away, but he is very developable and can with a preseason or two, while he probably plays next year, become with that little bit of time an effective key defender at AFL level.

And Williams as that last selection also has a plausible chance to develop as a productive midfielder who moves well and uses the footy well.

So there is the potential that the Dogs have again found a few pieces.

Knightmare

Can you tell me why Mountford went so late when he looks to have pace, acceleration, x factor, evasive skills, and an excellent kick on him? Plus he tested extremely well at the combine.

Cheers.

Mountford has some attributes and has tested well. He is light bodied, not a massive contested ball winner and overall has been a good more than dominant game-day performer.

hi KM. i know very early, but i assume you have probably watched a fair bit of footy from next years draft pool. who do you see as the top 4 or 5 at this stage for the next batch of kids? am very excited from a lions view point for allison and rolls.

Will Brodie, Jonty Scharenberg, Ben Ainsworth, Jy Simpkin and Jordan Galluci are probably those top five at this stage.

Hearing that Harley balics parents aren't too keen on their son moving to wa.

Parents rarely like seeing their boys going interstate but you have to live with it. It's a draft process after all.

Given Balic slid it would be interesting to know how closely Fremantle interviewed him.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Will Brodie, Jonty Scharenberg, Ben Ainsworth, Jy Simpkin and Jordan Galluci are probably those top five at this stage.

If Sam Petrevski-Seton drops out of the top 5, I would be shocked.

 

[Knightmare]

If Sam Petrevski-Seton drops out of the top 5, I would be shocked.

Sub 180cm. Lightly built. Early year birthday. Has the pace, skills and some freakishness. And early days is inside my top 10 for next year but I'd hardly be so bold as to say that a year out from the draft.

 

[Bicks]

KM, I get along to some Ballarat Rebels games locally and 3 young guys that are eligible for next year's draft that look the goods are Jarrod Berry, Ezekiel Frank and Hugh McCluggage, of course Berry has had more "exposure" than the other two but what are your thoughts on their chances at this stage??

 

[Knightmare]

KM, I get along to some Ballarat Rebels games locally and 3 young guys that are eligible for next year's draft that look the goods are Jarrod Berry, Ezekiel Frank and Hugh McCluggage, of course Berry has had more "exposure" than the other two but what are your thoughts on their chances at this stage??

All highly draftable and have strong chances for next season if they continue to improve and have strong 2016 seasons.

Berry feels the most advanced of the three. Frank up forward has shown some glimpses and is progressing nicely. McCluggage had some strong games in the middle of the season and is a third very draftable player from the Rebels for next season.

All three should be on the radar of AFL clubs.

 

[nottenthagain]

While this is true without the GWS Academy players like Zac Williams or Matt Flynn would not be on an AFL list right now, and a Jacob Hopper would not be as advanced in his game and Matt "Bam Bam" Kennedy would probably be picked much later in the draft, Harry Himmelberg again might have been undrafted. That these players are coming through, with the Breusts etc already in the system, it does show this area has been underdeveloped in terms of AFL talent. The bias against this area as a talent producer is slowly turning because of the GWS Academy and seemingly gone are the days where a James Hird had to use his Dad's name to get onto an AFL list.

Agreed the GWS have done well out of the Riverina in particular this draft, but that is not to say this will be the same every year. If it turns out this becomes a regular thing I can't see the other clubs putting up with it for any length of time.

FYI - They have a really good KP coming through next year

 

[OB11]

Absolutely love your work and your the go-to-man in all things draft related.

Ben Cavarra - any chance that anyone would look to pick him up?

Also McKenzie Willis got picked up by GC Suns. Had never heard of him and then saw his highlights package and was extremely impressed. What are your thoughts on his game?

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... can you give me a DT update know you know where the players have landed?

 

[Knightmare]

Absolutely love your work and your the go-to-man in all things draft related.

Ben Cavarra - any chance that anyone would look to pick him up?

Also McKenzie Willis got picked up by GC Suns. Had never heard of him and then saw his highlights package and was extremely impressed. What are your thoughts on his game?

With Willis other than knowing he was one of the more favoured mature agers coming out of Tasmania I'm not overly familiar with his game having not had the opportunity to watch any TSL this year.

Cavarra has had another productive season at VFL level. Not invited to the state screenings so it looks unlikely he will get selected. It's hard for many of these smalls to get into the competition with the competition getting taller and some good new smalls coming into the competition. And this struggle is obvious in all state league competitions. Shane Nelson in WA has been excellent for a number of years. You've got Joel Cross in the SANFL. It's not an easy game to crack into. Particularly for the sub 180s.

 

[Knightmare]

Knight... can you give me a DT update know you know where the players have landed?

I did one a few pages ago if you go through it.

In saying that I'm happy to do a complete fantasy football post-rookie draft preview (to include both national and rookie draft additions) if you remind me after the rookie draft.

 

[Portology]

Gresham is a handy small midfielder. High production and moves well so he can be a component to a team without being a star or someone who will do tremendous damage as I'd say of Lewis Taylor for Brisbane.

Balic sliding like that was a real surprise but he has some developing to do, whereas Gresham is year one, round one ready to play which is the advantage with that selection.



Bonner's old testing results don't from 2014 were solid overall. He probably would this year be around that 3 second mark over 20m. Agility good and endurance solid. For a relatively tallish type his movement is particularly impressive and while not freakish still good on the track.

Good value selection in the 30s and another weapon type Port Adelaide may have a shot at developing.

ouch!

Great work KM, thanks for the draft insights as always

 

[LemmingMaster]

Sub 180cm. Lightly built. Early year birthday. Has the pace, skills and some freakishness. And early days is inside my top 10 for next year but I'd hardly be so bold as to say that a year out from the draft.

Each to their own , but by far the best player i watched last year from next years draft class.

 

[Happy Daze]

Knight; I thought Essendon reached with their batch of picks at 29 and 30. I think our recruiters went with what they thought were BPA with the first two picks with Francis and Parish, but clearly we passed on several good talents to address need from then on. This is only my opinion; apparently the players we picked (Morgan and Redman) were in the mix for other clubs in the next 10 or 20 picks and we weren't going to get a look at them with our pick in the 50s, so perhaps those two were reaches not only because of need but also because of circumstance.

Now the question is do you agree with this opinion and if so to what degree and what other clubs do you think reached at different points in the draft? And can you see any reasoning behind why they reached for certain players? Obviously some supporters get a bit sensitive if you criticise their drafts so I apologise if you cop any flak over any opinion you have about this.

Also, what do you think of the NFL/NBA system where picks and players can be traded on draft night? So for example a team might really love a player but are 10 spots away from where he will go but might package up current and future picks in order to move up the draft to nab that player. Then you can have situations where two teams want the one player and the higher picks become a sellers market for those who own those picks. Its a complex system; one of the outcomes of it is that draft nights are always exciting because there are always trades going up and down in every round.

 

[Knightmare]

ouch!

Great work KM, thanks for the draft insights as always

Even I had to go back a few pages and edit that one for accuracy. In my haste the critical word was missed..

Knight; I thought Essendon reached with their batch of picks at 29 and 30. I think our recruiters went with what they thought were BPA with the first two picks with Francis and Parish, but clearly we passed on several good talents to address need from then on. This is only my opinion; apparently the players we picked (Morgan and Redman) were in the mix for other clubs in the next 10 or 20 picks and we weren't going to get a look at them with our pick in the 50s, so perhaps those two were reaches not only because of need but also because of circumstance.

Now the question is do you agree with this opinion and if so to what degree and what other clubs do you think reached at different points in the draft? And can you see any reasoning behind why they reached for certain players? Obviously some supporters get a bit sensitive if you criticise their drafts so I apologise if you cop any flak over any opinion you have about this.

Also, what do you think of the NFL/NBA system where picks and players can be traded on draft night? So for example a team might really love a player but are 10 spots away from where he will go but might package up current and future picks in order to move up the draft to nab that player. Then you can have situations where two teams want the one player and the higher picks become a sellers market for those who own those picks. Its a complex system; one of the outcomes of it is that draft nights are always exciting because there are always trades going up and down in every round.

29/30 was for me early on both Morgan and Redman. But there were some clubs such as Collingwood and North Melbourne who liked both so clubs probably won't agree with us there.

Several clubs reached at various points in the draft. Rioli by Richmond was a reach. Doedee was a reach with Adelaide obviously not confident he would be available at the clubs next pick. Same story with Collingwood selected Sier. And they're just a small few examples. With that lack of confidence in them being available at the clubs next selections, and having them as best available/most critical need based selection on their draft boards in each case being the reasoning.

As for the NBA system which I can talk about. And I imagine the NFL system would be much of a muchness. But I love in-draft trading. And I bet several clubs would have been tempted given some of the sliders of the night to execute some in-draft trades. An Adelaide as an example could have presumably moved down 10 positions and grabbed a 2016 second round selection or same story with Richmond and Rioli as some examples of what we could have plausibly seen on draft night. And if/when the AFL introduces it I imagine it would initially be limited to just the picks, but may in time come to include players also. But one step at a time.

 

[Happy Daze]

Great response as usual, agree with introducing in draft trading. Reckon after seeing the empty seats and complaints about the draft the other day might give the AFL a spur to do so, not that that is one of the main reasons they should, but it is a good reason if they want to promote the draft as a TV spectacle.

Edit: I think the NFL would be a better comparison for the AFL in terms of drafting just because the roster sizes/playing numbers are a little more comparable compared to the NBA, but both definitely have lessons for AFL clubs in terms of how to approach drafting, even if in-draft trading isn't introduced.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Great response as usual, agree with introducing in draft trading. Reckon after seeing the empty seats and complaints about the draft the other day might give the AFL a spur to do so, not that that is one of the main reasons they should, but it is a good reason if they want to promote the draft as a TV spectacle.

Edit: I think the NFL would be a better comparison for the AFL in terms of drafting just because the roster sizes/playing numbers are a little more comparable compared to the NBA, but both definitely have lessons for AFL clubs in terms of how to approach drafting, even if in-draft trading isn't introduced.

It depends what the draft is there for.
If it is primarily meant to be there for entertainment, go for it.
I'd suggest the clubs wouldn't care about empty seats, or TV spectacle.
I'm thinking "the block" or "my kitchen rules" will always be a bigger deal to the general public than the draft, and its main purpose should be to provide a fair way to facilitate getting new players into the clubs.

 

[redandblack]

With Willis other than knowing he was one of the more favoured mature agers coming out of Tasmania I'm not overly familiar with his game having not had the opportunity to watch any TSL this year.

Cavarra has had another productive season at VFL level. Not invited to the state screenings so it looks unlikely he will get selected. It's hard for many of these smalls to get into the competition with the competition getting taller and some good new smalls coming into the competition. And this struggle is obvious in all state league competitions. Shane Nelson in WA has been excellent for a number of years. You've got Joel Cross in the SANFL. It's not an easy game to crack into. Particularly for the sub 180s.

Agree about his 2015 highlights package, it's well worth a few minutes, KM, far better than most, even allowing for the opposition.

He's also a class act, good pickup, IMO.

 

[My name geoff]

Hey km, how does Harry Mckay's U18 form compare with Darcy Moore's?

 

[blueiris]

Even I had to go back a few pages and edit that one for accuracy. In my haste the critical word was missed..



29/30 was for me early on both Morgan and Redman. But there were some clubs such as Collingwood and North Melbourne who liked both so clubs probably won't agree with us there.

Several clubs reached at various points in the draft. Rioli by Richmond was a reach. Doedee was a reach with Adelaide obviously not confident he would be available at the clubs next pick. Same story with Collingwood selected Sier. And they're just a small few examples. With that lack of confidence in them being available at the clubs next selections, and having them as best available/most critical need based selection on their draft boards in each case being the reasoning.

As for the NBA system which I can talk about. And I imagine the NFL system would be much of a muchness. But I love in-draft trading. And I bet several clubs would have been tempted given some of the sliders of the night to execute some in-draft trades. An Adelaide as an example could have presumably moved down 10 positions and grabbed a 2016 second round selection or same story with Richmond and Rioli as some examples of what we could have plausibly seen on draft night. And if/when the AFL introduces it I imagine it would initially be limited to just the picks, but may in time come to include players also. But one step at a time.

With AcHee and Milera gone do you think Richmond just took the next best small forward thinking that was a spot where they needed the most improvement?

 

[x_les_x]

Hey km what are the knocks and strengthhs on snelling and Houston?

Snelling is specially small is that the only thing holding him back? Looks like he can find the pill

 

[premiershipvigil]

Great work KM, Wagner was in your top 50 and was picked by Demons as a rookie. U seem to like him. Do you think he could be best 22 for us?

 

[cairo tiger]

can I just KM say that I love your reports, question, do you do this as an interest or are you connected some way gee you are on it 24/7, do you have a day job?

 

[dlanod]

Great work KM, Wagner was in your top 50 and was picked by Demons as a rookie. U seem to like him. Do you think he could be best 22 for us?

I think you're confusing Corey (went to NM at pick 43 when they bid on him and the Lions didn't match) and Josh (rookied today).