Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[stars alive]

There were some personality questions with Anderson.

Dodge while talented and not a bad guy probably isn't from coaching reports as coachable as some of his peers.

It's just the age of footy we're in. Clubs want the hardest trainers and highest character guys who are most coachable and willing to learn and adapt according to the needs of teams.

Further to this clubs like forwards with greater versatility which for both Anderson and Dodge doesn't help their cases.

so KM..we know kerbatieh had a tank to build ..but why didnt they draft kerbatieh & tahana?
IMO ...rioli..silvagni..wallis all fortunate..cant see the three of them making it in the big league

 

[Knightmare]

so KM..we know kerbatieh had a tank to build ..but why didnt they draft kerbatieh & tahana?
IMO ...rioli..silvagni..wallis all fortunate..cant see the three of them making it in the big league

Tahana not tall or a great contested ball winner. No clear best position/role at AFL level.

Kerbatieh doesn't have the endurance, doesn't have the ability up the ground. Very much a goal first, goal second, look for an option to pass to as a last resort type.

Those things don't always appeal.

Tom Wallis had a solid last month, not someone I had on my draft board, but that's Essendon's call to evaluate his talent and decide yes/no.

Rioli while his production was poor his has the talent so while I wouldn't take him first round, I'd take him over Tahana and Kerbatieh. His ground level ability in addition to his pace and endurance give him a shot.

Silvagni I also don't dislike as a selection. He is a tweener (between positions) and lacks even a clear best end (probably best as a forward I speculate). But late year birthday, has had a few big games but also critically has AFL relevant attributes and the game seems to come natural to him - just so clean overhead and reads the flight so well. Mid-late draft he isn't someone I'd object to selecting either.

 

[stars alive]

Tahana not tall or a great contested ball winner. No clear best position/role at AFL level.

Kerbatieh doesn't have the endurance, doesn't have the ability up the ground. Very much a goal first, goal second, look for an option to pass to as a last resort type.

Those things don't always appeal.

Tom Wallis had a solid last month, not someone I had on my draft board, but that's Essendon's call to evaluate his talent and decide yes/no.

Rioli while his production was poor his has the talent so while I wouldn't take him first round, I'd take him over Tahana and Kerbatieh. His ground level ability in addition to his pace and endurance give him a shot.

Silvagni I also don't dislike as a selection. He is a tweener (between positions) and lacks even a clear best end (probably best as a forward I speculate). But late year birthday, has had a few big games but also critically has AFL relevant attributes and the game seems to come natural to him - just so clean overhead and reads the flight so well. Mid-late draft he isn't someone I'd object to selecting either.

i wouldve picked liam jeffs and ozgur uysal from coburg before any of the above..

 

[mustang]

KM what do you think of Hawthorn's first 2 picks Burton and Lovell do you think we drafted well.

 

[My name geoff]

Tahana not tall or a great contested ball winner. No clear best position/role at AFL level.

Kerbatieh doesn't have the endurance, doesn't have the ability up the ground. Very much a goal first, goal second, look for an option to pass to as a last resort type.

Those things don't always appeal.

Tom Wallis had a solid last month, not someone I had on my draft board, but that's Essendon's call to evaluate his talent and decide yes/no.

Rioli while his production was poor his has the talent so while I wouldn't take him first round, I'd take him over Tahana and Kerbatieh. His ground level ability in addition to his pace and endurance give him a shot.

Silvagni I also don't dislike as a selection. He is a tweener (between positions) and lacks even a clear best end (probably best as a forward I speculate). But late year birthday, has had a few big games but also critically has AFL relevant attributes and the game seems to come natural to him - just so clean overhead and reads the flight so well. Mid-late draft he isn't someone I'd object to selecting either.

Good call on Silvagni KM!

I had mentioned on the Carlton board that silvagni actually looks like the cleanest, smoothest player the blues have recruited since Menzel.

The player I'm just not seeing it yet with though is Oliver. He has a lot of dominant attributes but doesnt quite have that ease of movement that many of the quality youngster do. I'll be interested to see how his style of play translates into the AFL

 

[Knightmare]

KM what do you think of Hawthorn's first 2 picks Burton and Lovell do you think we drafted well.

Hawthorn this year have drafted quite a bit differently. All three national draft selections are by position among if not the highest production options by their draft position. And in a contending team, I like that as that suggests a higher probability of immediate impact.

Burton was a solid value selection based on his 2014 production and has chances to develop and Hawthorn did well to capitalise on the value presented. Lovell is a very good immediate midfielder who with his pace/endurance combination and with his sheer production offers immediate depth. And Hardwick also as a forward had so incredible goalkicking performances and has a power to him.

Overall Hawthorn should be happy with the way they've drafted. Perhaps a key position player or key defender (maybe Collins) could have been added. But with so many veterans and limited good young talent there are a lot of long term needs the club need to draft for and it's more than a one year process.

Good call on Silvagni KM!

I had mentioned on the Carlton board that silvagni actually looks like the cleanest, smoothest player the blues have recruited since Menzel.

The player I'm just not seeing it yet with though is Oliver. He has a lot of dominant attributes but doesnt quite have that ease of movement that many of the quality youngster do. I'll be interested to see how his style of play translates into the AFL

I wouldn't be surprised to see Silvagni develop.

On Oliver though I don't agree with your evaluation and he may have the best mix of attributes in this draft. He has the size and contested ball winning ability. He has some explosiveness with a burst of pace, but then also the agility and sidestepping ability. Skills are clean by hand and foot and relatively damaging. Can sneak forward and take a grab and hit the scoreboard. So if he continues to improve as he did over the second half of the season, which I'm anticipating in an AFL program as he gets fitter. Oliver can be something like a poor man's Oliver Wines or something like Melbourne's Patrick Cripps equivalent. Many will claim Melbourne went early on Oliver, but I have him after Hopper as that second best player in this draft class, or so I'm predicting today if Melbourne do their part and do their part in developing him, which I'm expecting they will with things trending in the right direction with Melbourne even though it is a slow process.

 

[My name geoff]

Hawthorn this year have drafted quite a bit differently. All three national draft selections are by position among if not the highest production options by their draft position. And in a contending team, I like that as that suggests a higher probability of immediate impact.

Burton was a solid value selection based on his 2014 production and has chances to develop and Hawthorn did well to capitalise on the value presented. Lovell is a very good immediate midfielder who with his pace/endurance combination and with his sheer production offers immediate depth. And Hardwick also as a forward had so incredible goalkicking performances and has a power to him.

Overall Hawthorn should be happy with the way they've drafted. Perhaps a key position player or key defender (maybe Collins) could have been added. But with so many veterans and limited good young talent there are a lot of long term needs the club need to draft for and it's more than a one year process.



I wouldn't be surprised to see Silvagni develop.

On Oliver though I don't agree with your evaluation and he may have the best mix of attributes in this draft. He has the size and contested ball winning ability. He has some explosiveness with a burst of pace, but then also the agility and sidestepping ability. Skills are clean by hand and foot and relatively damaging. Can sneak forward and take a grab and hit the scoreboard. So if he continues to improve as he did over the second half of the season, which I'm anticipating in an AFL program as he gets fitter. Oliver can be something like a poor man's Oliver Wines or something like Melbourne's Patrick Cripps equivalent. Many will claim Melbourne went early on Oliver, but I have him after Hopper as that second best player in this draft class, or so I'm predicting today if Melbourne do their part and do their part in developing him, which I'm expecting they will with things trending in the right direction with Melbourne even though it is a slow process.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oliver develop into the player you describe. I just see him as more of a battering ram type than a prime mover. Think more Mark Whiley, less Patrick Cripps. The players you mention as comparisons have some elite physical attributes that allow them to play the game they play. I don't think Oliver has the size and strength to play that Wines, Cripps role and he doesn't seem to me to have the running ability of other mids like Boak, Selwood, B.Crouch etc.

I think Hopper looks to have the size and strength to play the Cripps, Wines role and I think a youngster like Brayshaw has the running game to play the Boak, Selwood, role. I just don't see where Oliver's advantage is to become a prime mover.

No doubt my mind will change completely when he starts dominating

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oliver develop into the player you describe. I just see him as more of a battering ram type than a prime mover. Think more Mark Whiley, less Patrick Cripps. The players you mention as comparisons have some elite physical attributes that allow them to play the game they play. I don't think Oliver has the size and strength to play that Wines, Cripps role and he doesn't seem to me to have the running ability of other mids like Boak, Selwood, B.Crouch etc.

I think Hopper looks to have the size and strength to play the Cripps, Wines role and I think a youngster like Brayshaw has the running game to play the Boak, Selwood, role. I just don't see where Oliver's advantage is to become a prime mover.

No doubt my mind will change completely when he starts dominating

Oliver tested very well. 2.99 second 20m sprint. 8.11sec agility (incredible for someone with such a big body) and a 10:45 sec 3km which also is very good-excellent. And he has the size and frame to go with it. In game he moves well and shows the burst of pace and has a sidestep which he uses well in game. So I have zero problem with his movement with his movement substantially better than he is given credit for and feel it is actually a strength of his.

Further to this Oliver despite playing such a contested/inside role with his occasional stints forward also has an excellent kicking efficiency v his peers.

So there is nothing vanilla about Oliver at all. If I have one criticism of Oliver it would be that I'd like to see him 20 disposal games become 30 disposal games. From an attribute standpoint has those attributes that can allow him with correct development to become a star midfielder.

 

[huludicidal]

It's just the age of footy we're in. Clubs want the hardest trainers and highest character guys who are most coachable and willing to learn and adapt according to the needs of teams.

Quoted for relevance. ^^

I strongly believe the above is a huge part of the reason the Crows were so bullish on Doedee. I've heard nothing but good things about his character and willingness to learn, and as far as team needs go, he certainly fits that medium sized defender with agility mould that West Coast (Don Pyke factor) used so effectively in 2015. A lot of the crows existing 'defenders' are either pretty questionable in one on ones, or have poor agility.

Even with that in mind, I'm still a bit staggered by the club selecting Doedee over ALL of Burton, Collins, B McKay, Partington, Dunkley, Cole and Tucker (very happy we didn't take Balic). I'm sure there might have been some injury / character / flight risk / team needs concerns with some of those guys as far as Adelaide were concerned, but surely not all. I'm happy to reserve judgement until I've seen Doedee develop for another 24 months though. Quite possibly the most surprising first round pick in the last 10 years for mine, along with Jack Leslie (GC), Christian Howard (WB) and Boekhurst (Carl).

Just on Doedee KM, do you envision him playing anywhere other than half back at AFL level? Apologies if this has already been covered.

 

[My name geoff]

Oliver tested very well. 2.99 second 20m sprint. 8.11sec agility (incredible for someone with such a big body) and a 10:45 sec 3km which also is very good-excellent. And he has the size and frame to go with it. In game he moves well and shows the burst of pace and has a sidestep which he uses well in game. So I have zero problem with his movement with his movement substantially better than he is given credit for and feel it is actually a strength of his.

Further to this Oliver despite playing such a contested/inside role with his occasional stints forward also has an excellent kicking efficiency v his peers.

So there is nothing vanilla about Oliver at all. If I have one criticism of Oliver it would be that I'd like to see him 20 disposal games become 30 disposal games. From an attribute standpoint has those attributes that can allow him with correct development to become a star midfielder.

He definitely is an interesting prospect!

 

[Knightmare]

Quoted for relevance. ^^

I strongly believe the above is a huge part of the reason the Crows were so bullish on Doedee. I've heard nothing but good things about his character and willingness to learn, and as far as team needs go, he certainly fits that medium sized defender with agility mould that West Coast (Don Pyke factor) used so effectively in 2015. A lot of the crows existing 'defenders' are either pretty questionable in one on ones, or have poor agility.

Even with that in mind, I'm still a bit staggered by the club selecting Doedee over ALL of Burton, Collins, B McKay, Partington, Dunkley, Cole and Tucker (very happy we didn't take Balic). I'm sure there might have been some injury / character / flight risk / team needs concerns with some of those guys as far as Adelaide were concerned, but surely not all. I'm happy to reserve judgement until I've seen Doedee develop for another 24 months though. Quite possibly the most surprising first round pick in the last 10 years for mine, along with Jack Leslie (GC), Christian Howard (WB) and Boekhurst (Carl).

Just on Doedee KM, do you envision him playing anywhere other than half back at AFL level? Apologies if this has already been covered.

Lots of clubs are going down the character avenue with Collingwood also heavily going down the highest character/competitor route and also rumoured to have liked Doedee a lot. And it makes sense overall, having a bunch of guys who want to be there and will give their all to earn a position and get the most out of themselves.

Doedee I'll view as a backman until he shows he is something else. And being a career general backman is hardly an undesirable outcome if he can become a best 22 player and be good at what he does. There will be guys selected before Doedee who will fail to become AFL relevant. So you go into the process understanding that.

It is surprising the names Adelaide passed on. I agree with you. But it turns out Adelaide didn't rate those guys as highly, and probably suggests Adelaide just really didn't rate this draft class. Which is a view more clubs than just Adelaide share.

 

[Misunderstood]

Hi KM,

I was just wanting to gather your thoughts on the 2nd best defender in the draft and who you rated behind weitering? I see Adelaide took dodee is he the next best?

Curious to get your thoughts on Josh Dunkley..Will the swans regret that descison? Is there improvement in Josh?

Also Sam Weiderman who do you compare him with and who does he play like and how high do you rate him?

Tks

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

I was just wanting to gather your thoughts on the 2nd best defender in the draft and who you rated behind weitering? I see Adelaide took dodee is he the next best?

Curious to get your thoughts on Josh Dunkley..Will the swans regret that descison? Is there improvement in Josh?

Also Sam Weiderman who do you compare him with and who does he play like and how high do you rate him?

Tks

Eric Hipwood was my second highest rated key defender after Weitering. With Francis the best general backman.

Dunkley is a solid midfielder. Had an excellent 2014 season, so much so that he looked like a top 5 selection coming into this season, but this year he was played out of position too much and not played through the guts as much which hurt his output and made him look fairly ordinary. Will Sydney regret passing on Dunkley? Probably not. Their midfield is so loaded I can't see who he would play ahead of with Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery, Heeney, Mills, Mitchell, K.Jack all in that same midfield group. So for Dunkley's career prospects he is better off with the Dogs than Sydney.

Weideman I compare to Josh Walker (ex Geelong now Brisbane). The comparison should give you a pretty good feel that I'm not so high on Weideman and feel he is a possible but not certainty to make the grade, and if he makes the grade he will be more an ok key forward than a star you build around.

 

[Misunderstood]

Thanks Knightmare do you feel Collins was a supprise to get through to 26 in your eyes or was he right on the money at that selection?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks Knightmare do you feel Collins was a supprise to get through to 26 in your eyes or was he right on the money at that selection?

Collins I was expecting to see feature in the teens. So falling into the 20s he represents strong value given the strength of his play this year. My concern for Collins is movement - not quick or agile, but if he can compensate for that, he can be really good because he has the 1v1 strength, can stop guys but then also take intercept marks which if things go right mean he can be an impact player given that two way ability.

 

[Misunderstood]

Thanks Knightmare

 

[Gollo]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oliver develop into the player you describe. I just see him as more of a battering ram type than a prime mover. Think more Mark Whiley, less Patrick Cripps. The players you mention as comparisons have some elite physical attributes that allow them to play the game they play. I don't think Oliver has the size and strength to play that Wines, Cripps role and he doesn't seem to me to have the running ability of other mids like Boak, Selwood, B.Crouch etc.

I think Hopper looks to have the size and strength to play the Cripps, Wines role and I think a youngster like Brayshaw has the running game to play the Boak, Selwood, role. I just don't see where Oliver's advantage is to become a prime mover.

No doubt my mind will change completely when he starts dominating

Oliver is physically stronger than Cripps and a mile ahead of him in terms of athleticism. Will make an impact much more quickly than Cripps, and unlike Cripps, is a very good kick and has a solid tank. When Cripps can improve his kicking, tank and burst speed, he will become as rounded a player as Oliver.

 

[My name geoff]

Cripps is physically stronger than Cripps and a mile ahead of him in terms of athleticism. Will make an impact much more quickly than Cripps, and unlike Cripps, is a very good kick and has a solid tank. When Cripps can improve his kicking, tank and burst speed, he will become as rounded a player as Oliver.

you sound like me talking to my mates after every Carlton game...except the part about oliver

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Not having seen them play other than highlights packages, who are some player comparisons/similarities for Essendon's 3 draft picks Yestin Eades, Mason Redman and Alex Morgan? Also do you see Redman developing into a midfielder, and will Eades develop into a wingman or are both likely to remain as forwards?

 

[Gollo]

you sound like me talking to my mates after every Carlton game...except the part about oliver

Sorry, meant to write Oliver instead of the first Cripps. Fixed now.

 

[HARKER]

Oliver is physically stronger than Cripps and a mile ahead of him in terms of athleticism. Will make an impact much more quickly than Cripps, and unlike Cripps, is a very good kick and has a solid tank. When Cripps can improve his kicking, tank and burst speed, he will become as rounded a player as Oliver.

You're in for a surprise then.

 

[bradburygold]

That talk was from Brian Waldron, the mastermind of the Melbourne Storm salary cap rorting disaster that cost that club multiple Premierships.

Waldron apart from being a cheat is clearly very naive about the early challenges that a start from scratch sides faces in developing markets. That is unless you try to manufacture success by systematic rorting.

With respect to Canberra, good luck trying to keep any interstate player drafted if they have to be based there all the time. Sydney is a challenge, Canberra is impossible.

For a couple of games a year it's fine but that is it.

The AFL needs to persevere with Western Sydney if it wants to truly capture NSW.

Some good points but you neglected to mention staff which is the greatest cost. You think it is easy to attract people with football expertise if they have to live in Rooty Hill? Be much cheaper to get melb/sa people to live in canberra than out there imho and I am not alone in that line of thinking..

 

[dlanod]

Some good points but you neglected to mention staff which is the greatest cost. You think it is easy to attract people with football expertise if they have to live in Rooty Hill? Be much cheaper to get melb/sa people to live in canberra than out there imho and I am not alone in that line of thinking..

You might not be alone but unless you're trying to find people working for the Rooty Hill RSL Power I don't know what club you think will want people to live in Rooty Hill. The Giants are based in Olympic Park, one of the biggest employment hubs in the city, complete with public transport and road links to anywhere in Sydney. You could live just about anywhere in Sydney and get there without too many issues. Alternatively, be an idiot.

 

[bradburygold]

You might not be alone but unless you're trying to find people working for the Rooty Hill RSL Power I don't know what club you think will want people to live in Rooty Hill. The Giants are based in Olympic Park, one of the biggest employment hubs in the city, complete with public transport and road links to anywhere in Sydney. You could live just about anywhere in Sydney and get there without too many issues. Alternatively, be an idiot.

Check your facts first - not based in olympic park, - road links are horrible anyway and definitely horrible from blacktown/rooty hill. There are few places in sydney you get too from anywhere without issues.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Some good points but you neglected to mention staff which is the greatest cost. You think it is easy to attract people with football expertise if they have to live in Rooty Hill? Be much cheaper to get melb/sa people to live in canberra than out there imho and I am not alone in that line of thinking..

Mate, not a single soul lives in Rooty Hill, Blacktown or Penrith.

All the players and coaches live in the inner west, eastern suburbs or lower north shore which are the most desirable postcodes in Sydney.

If you have money which they all do Sydney is a great place to live.