Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Wizard17]

Laguda is one of many to move up my draft board. But Laguda is a definite improver this season. He after today's performance has made the bests in 4/5 games. Last year of his 11 games he made the bests in just the 1 game. And he has showing why with improved play on both sides of the ball.

Agree he and probably Lachie Tardrew (Bendigo) have shown a lot early in the year be interesting to see if they can make the VicM and VicC squads respectively.

 

[menzel case]

KM how do you rate the quality of the top 5 or so players who are eligible (non academy or F/S) for this years national draft compared to an average draft?

just reading your intro post i get teh feeling you dont rate the eligible players for this draft very highly or is it still too early to tell? i also feel like in almost every year before this year, that by this time of year, there would be a lot of hype surrounding 1 or 2 players and that doesnt seem to be the case at all this year.

 

[Knightmare]

Agree he and probably Lachie Tardrew (Bendigo) have shown a lot early in the year be interesting to see if they can make the VicM and VicC squads respectively.

Making Metro and Country shouldn't be an issue for either for them the way they're both performing.

Tardrew is a good one on a bad team, so it will be interesting on a really good Country team to see how he goes in a better team. And with continued strong performance he is another who can and probably will work his way onto and up my draft order.

KM how do you rate the quality of the top 5 or so players who are eligible (non academy or F/S) for this years national draft compared to an average draft?

just reading your intro post i get teh feeling you dont rate the eligible players for this draft very highly or is it still too early to tell? i also feel like in almost every year before this year, that by this time of year, there would be a lot of hype surrounding 1 or 2 players and that doesnt seem to be the case at all this year.

Below average of those top 5 (non academy selections) but not completely terrible. There isn't anyone who has really through an incredible superiority of performance or has such an incredible superiority of talent to suggest they should be the top overall selection.

As a draft early on and overall I look at it as being a lot like 2009. Top end not incredible. Depth not incredible. Talls are ok but not spectacular. But still there will be plenty of really good AFL talent.

There isn't a definite front-runner for that top overall pick. Parish is the guy mostly mentioned. But really there is a group of guys with Tucker and maybe Weideman two others who will be mentioned a lot along with Curnow. But the talk will be the Academy guys. As per my power rankings, people are looking at Mills as the best talent in this draft, and understand that there is substantial talent through the academies this year, so those will be the more common discussion topics more so than the race to be number one.

 

[GutsyBug]

Knightmare, do you see Collingwood picking up another key position player to go along with Moore? And if so who?

If possible I would also like to know if there are any players in the Moore/Reid mold who are already look like being decent swingmen.

Thanks!

 

[GT619]

How deep is this year's draft

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, do you see Collingwood picking up another key position player to go along with Moore? And if so who?

If possible I would also like to know if there are any players in the Moore/Reid mold who are already look like being decent swingmen.

Thanks!

It's hard to know who will be available whether it be through the draft or through trade week.

But Collingwood definitely need another really good key forward.

In this draft. Joshua Schache may be considered first round if there. Sam Weideman in the second round may be considered if there. Matthew Allen in the second round is another who may be considered if there.

Through trade week it's hard to see anyone giving up a premier key forward. But maybe in the leadup to trade week an unexpected opportunity may arise, just nothing is obvious at this stage. Jon Patton would be terrific as one example if GWS fall in love with Cam McCarthy as that compliment to Jeremy Cameron as I imagine they are with his early season form.

Either way whether it's through the draft or trade week the critical thing to me is going for a star level forward, or someone who projects to become a star. As opposed to a low level key forward who hardly performs to an AFL standard.

How deep is this year's draft

As per my last post. Not particularly deep. Similar to 2009.

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ... KM , I see you have Geelong taking Darcy Tucker in R1. A defensive mid is something I feel we need to add ideally that medium size 186/190 or so but kids grow. What sort of player is Tucker.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare ... KM , I see you have Geelong taking Darcy Tucker in R1. A defensive mid is something I feel we need to add ideally that medium size 186/190 or so but kids grow. What sort of player is Tucker.

Tucker is an outside mid with excellent pace. And to go with it he can kick, hit the scoreboard and find a lot of the footy.

If you want a defensive mid, those types can generally be had later.

Jesse Moffa might be an example of someone I could see playing a defensive mid role.

 

[Turbocat]

Tucker is an outside mid with excellent pace. And to go with it he can kick, hit the scoreboard and find a lot of the footy.

If you want a defensive mid, those types can generally be had later.

Jesse Moffa might be an example of someone I could see playing a defensive mid role.

DMid , I guess to me ..someone who is happy to play back as well as on ball. Guthrie has been good , we drafted Cunico last year and they are playing him in that HBF role in VFL ... I think of a defensive mid as someone who is not adverse to contact , yet clever enough to avoid it if required. Milburn was a classic at it.
gees Freo has got about 10 of them in their side.

So what is the Moffa kid like , strong overhead?

 

[Knightmare]

DMid , I guess to me ..someone who is happy to play back as well as on ball. Guthrie has been good , we drafted Cunico last year and they are playing him in that HBF role in VFL ... I think of a defensive mid as someone who is not adverse to contact , yet clever enough to avoid it if required. Milburn was a classic at it.
gees Freo has got about 10 of them in their side.

So what is the Moffa kid like , strong overhead?

My impression is Moffa could play a role of a Cameron Ling or Kane Cornes (without being necessarily as good) whereby he can limit a guys impact and find the footy himself without being necessarily damaging offensively.

I didn't notice any specific weapons. But more just a tall mid who can win the footy and really commits to the defensive side of the ball - tackling, limiting his opponents influence. Overhead I haven't noticed anything special but with some height, that's something that probably can improve and build into his game.

 

[Turbocat]

My impression is Moffa could play a role of a Cameron Ling or Kane Cornes (without being necessarily as good) whereby he can limit a guys impact and find the footy himself without being necessarily damaging offensively.

I didn't notice any specific weapons. But more just a tall mid who can win the footy and really commits to the defensive side of the ball - tackling, limiting his opponents influence. Overhead I haven't noticed anything special but with some height, that's something that probably can improve and build into his game.

Thanks for the feedback , will watch for him at the champs. Overhead is under appreciated..as with Ling. It was an important part of his game

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the feedback , will watch for him at the champs. Overhead is under appreciated..as with Ling. It was an important part of his game

In mids marking ability is an important weapon, particularly with those top end mids having that ability to take a grab forward of centre - and with the success of Fyfe it will more and more be viewed as important. Marking ability I find often suggests greater impact forward and greater overall ability to play mutli-positions and that's where I see the value.

Many of them though keep in mind don't have it coming into the AFL system and develop it later. But if they have it earlier, then even better and big tick.

 

[menzel case]

Below average of those top 5 (non academy selections) but not completely terrible. There isn't anyone who has really through an incredible superiority of performance or has such an incredible superiority of talent to suggest they should be the top overall selection.

As a draft early on and overall I look at it as being a lot like 2009. Top end not incredible. Depth not incredible. Talls are ok but not spectacular. But still there will be plenty of really good AFL talent.

There isn't a definite front-runner for that top overall pick. Parish is the guy mostly mentioned. But really there is a group of guys with Tucker and maybe Weideman two others who will be mentioned a lot along with Curnow. But the talk will be the Academy guys. As per my power rankings, people are looking at Mills as the best talent in this draft, and understand that there is substantial talent through the academies this year, so those will be the more common discussion topics more so than the race to be number one.

thanks for the answer KM, much appreciated as always. when you say this draft is similar to the 2009 draft are you referring to 2009 pre-draft or in hindsight? because the 2009 draft had some really talented juniors who through injury or misfortune, have not been able to transfer it over to afl.

and do you see any chance of the top end players really stepping up their cases from now till teh end of the year given we havent even had champs yet or do you think the top end is usually quite set by this time of year?

 

[Knightmare]

thanks for the answer KM, much appreciated as always. when you say this draft is similar to the 2009 draft are you referring to 2009 pre-draft or in hindsight? because the 2009 draft had some really talented juniors who through injury or misfortune, have not been able to transfer it over to afl.

and do you see any chance of the top end players really stepping up their cases from now till teh end of the year given we havent even had champs yet or do you think the top end is usually quite set by this time of year?

2009 turned out roughly as what I expected anyway (albeit) different names developing to perhaps expected at the time. Was never predicted to be a terrific draft, be it top end or depth later in the draft.

There is plenty of time for this years group to prove themselves, and over the first portion of the season we're already seeing it with quite a number of guys looking much improved. But then others not performing to the levels expected of them coming into the season. So with so much of the season still to come, there will be plenty of movement on my draft board and on other draft boards.

There often at this point in the season is a consensus number one, and this year there sort of is, but the different there is that that consensus number one pick is an academy player as opposed to someone available for all clubs to select which makes the dynamic of this draft different to what we've seen in previous years. Regarding the whole of the top end. Most of those names are known, but as usual there will be late season risers and we will probably get one or two late season risers as normal again this season.

 

[redandblack]

This is a serious post. When discussing No 1 draft chances, leave out Aaron Francis at your peril.

He wasn't in the best players, but the AFL scouts there were salivating over his marking, his pace and above all, his elite kicking skills.

This bloke is special.

 

[redandblack]

From the same game, Will Snelling led possessions with 27, great inside. Size will be the question for his draft chances, but he's very effective.

Riley Bonner might be more to recruiters liking. I watched him in the Under 18's last week. He racked up 35 possessions and 4 goals, against weak opposition.

 

[robbo16]

Jade Gresham another BOG for the knights, where do you reckon he will go if he keeps up this form through the champs and rest of the season KM?

 

[Knightmare]

Jade Gresham another BOG for the knights, where do you reckon he will go if he keeps up this form through the champs and rest of the season KM?

Gresham through performance is working his way up draft boards and he has set the standard early on in the TAC Cup.

He could be this years Lewis Taylor equivalent as that really high quality small, though in the high 170s rather than low 170s which will work in his favour.

If Gresham keeps producing and continues to elevate his play he could feature in the 15-30 range I'd predict, but any drop off and it's 30 onward so it will require that consistent dominance of performance.

 

[Skippos]

This is a serious post. When discussing No 1 draft chances, leave out Aaron Francis at your peril.

He wasn't in the best players, but the AFL scouts there were salivating over his marking, his pace and above all, his elite kicking skills.

This bloke is special.

Can back most of this up. He's not going to go #1 but he's an excellent player. Game was televised so you'll get a tape of it KM but Francis really was good. His marking is exceptional and his kicking is fantastic. In a lot of ways I reckon he's this draft's Caleb Marchbank - undersized KPD with a great marking game and solid when thrown forward. Francis is just a better kick. Barring a growth spurt though not sure he's a top 5 kind of player, is very much a key defender/third tall type.

Wayne Milera while probably having his worst game for the season showed flashes too. I think he's a top 30 player. Connor McLean another who impressed me - 19 year old who played in the champs last year as a KPD but played forward today and seemed to get it. He is an overaged player but if he can play like this consistently at SANFL level, given he's a KPP all might not be lost for him.

From the same game, Will Snelling led possessions with 27, great inside. Size will be the question for his draft chances, but he's very effective.

Riley Bonner might be more to recruiters liking. I watched him in the Under 18's last week. He racked up 35 possessions and 4 goals, against weak opposition.

Snelling I'm not sold on. Seen him six times now, and while his work should be respected I'm unsure if he's got the game to make the grade. Not sure where the upside is - he's okay speed wise but not quick, he's very small for an inside mid (175 cm) and by foot he's reliable at best. Gets a lot of the ball but his hurt factor isn't high and he's not going to win that high volume inside ball at AFL level with his size and non-elite natural nous. Haysman another I'm not sold on; height isn't a massive concern given the role he plays but apart from being a high level endurance athlete he's yet to sell me. Both deserve attention given their performances though.

Bonner I think is probably the best of the three from an AFL point of view. Better size, more likable skillset from a recruiters point of view. Definitely one to watch.

 

[God Save Max King]

Haven't seen much of Francis but agree with the views expressed here. Screams Sam Fisher, would definitely consider in top 5.

 

[Two Planks]

Jade Gresham another BOG for the knights, where do you reckon he will go if he keeps up this form through the champs and rest of the season KM?

Will Sexton best for falcons again. Any chance anybody on these draft boards will give him a mention.

 

[Knightmare]

Will Sexton best for falcons again. Any chance anybody on these draft boards will give him a mention.

Playing well. But lots of sub 180cm players performing this year as there are most years. A late/rookie chance, but far from a certain selection.

 

[ringo1]

Playing well. But lots of sub 180cm players performing this year as there are most years. A late/rookie chance, but far from a certain selection.

Do you see any of the Pioneers boys getting picked up?

 

[Two Planks]

Playing well. But lots of sub 180cm players performing this year as there are most years. A late/rookie chance, but far from a certain selection.

Is an elite kick on both sides and as we all know clubs tend to copy a winning teams philosophy. So if you want to emulate the hawks draft elite kicks.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you see any of the Pioneers boys getting picked up?

Thomas Cole. Maybe Lachie Tardrew. Aidyn Johnson maybe.

Jayden Burke and Samuel Simmons are two others I'm watching with interest and open minded to.

That's probably broadly the group to watch for from Bendigo this year.

Is an elite kick on both sides and as we all know clubs tend to copy a winning teams philosophy. So if you want to emulate the hawks draft elite kicks.

The other aspect of Hawthorn's formula beyond just drafting kickers and left footers is they like height and they like versatility.

On the Hawthorn list Puopolo is the only player shorter than Sexton.

So it's not quite that simplistic regarding Hawthorn just being a team of kickers.