Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

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Round 1 TAC Cup notes:

The basics were and TAC Cup watchers particularly of those Metro sides will find this to be a problem throughout the year, but the guys who are draft eligible this year just aren't all that impressive. It's set to be the Vic Country show, with an unusual percentage of the better players from the Metro based clubs either underagers or overagers.

*I could for both of these games provide notes on probably another 10-15 players who had at least one positive/highlight play but I'll stick to those who had the most impactful games overall.

Oakleigh v Northern:

Sam Mclarty (underager) was my clear best on for Oakleigh in their convincing win v Northern. He set the tone early on with a nice chase down tackle on a potential goalkicker. He showed he could read the flight well and took a really nice intercept mark. He showed that he has a nice evasive step to avoid tackles and create space and after taking that step could find his target. On another occasion deep in the back half under pressure he had the opportunity to concede the behind and showed composure choosing not to concede and under pressure finding a target up the field. He by foot also showed that both short and long he could hit his targets. All in all I like his game a lot and he showed me great range in his mix of talents and even on a one game sample size it was fairly obvious that he will be an early draft selection next season, he just had that many more noteworthy plays than anyone else on the field in this particular game.

Harry Thompson for Oakleigh was another standout who put forward a strong case in this particular game. In the second quarter Thompson took a strong mark overhead at the very highest point also really demonstrating a nice leap on that grab which showed me something, then going back to convert from 45m and throughout the game he had a really dangerous feel forward of centre as a marking target. In this game overhead he showed his full range, taking marks on the lead, pushing up the field and taking an intercept mark and also taking a strong pack grab overhead. He showed he can clearly read the flight and also has the strong hands overhead to go with it, so he has something and I look forward to seeing more of what he can do up forward. He had only the two goals but the way he was playing he felt like he should have had 3-4 goals and that will be something I'll be looking for from Thompson over the course of the season if he wants to be considered a legit key forward prospect with the good key forwards consistently those going early draft in a position where mediocrity will get you nowhere. I also wouldn't say no to him as a key defender with his marking, ability to read the flight and good athleticism and that could be a fall-back option if he doesn't dominate this season.

Nick Pirrie although he only kicked the one goal for Oakleigh a bit like Thompson, was much better than that and a really influential player in the front half as a second really dangerous marking forward in this game. In one contest Pirrie showed excellent bodywork in the 1v1 contest, using his body legally and just showing he was too good for his direct opponent on that occasion. He also took some other strong marks on the lead and showed some signs of promise. Not necessarily AFL promise as he is only a 190cm marking forward, but he showed none the less real competency.

Sam Parsons for Oakleigh was quiet in the first half but in the second half was one who caught the eye. Nice height at 189cm and really showed that he has talent. He found his targets by foot and showed that he really sees the ground and can execute even fairly high difficulty kicks which really stood out. At one stage he found a nice central target that set up some play for Oakleigh. He showed that he can finish from general play inside 50. He also showed a nice burst of pace, really taking on the game on one notable occasion and then finishing for the goal.

Carlton fans will also be pleased to hear that potential father son selection Jack Silvagni showed some promise kicking a couple of goals for Oakleigh, proving yet another option in that forward 50 who could take a grab.
In overhearing some other scouts nearby talking apparently SOS was ecstatic and really celebrating his sons marks and goals from the stands, and good on him. Although immediately afterwards from reports he in embarrassment tried to play it down and compose himself.

For Northern the most impressive player and no surprise here was Jade Gresham who as a sub 180cm mid competed well and continued on his strong play from 2014. He showed some nice run and carry. Hit his targets. Showed nice tackling energy with at least one nice chase down from behind. He got at least one meaningful clearance. Overall he played with good nice energy which is what you want to see from your smalls and even through the second half on a team that was getting convincingly beaten which is a good sign individually.


Eastern v Western

*This game I was fortunate enough to have Christian Petracca and Jayden Laverde sitting merely one row back with a couple of their friends conversing about basketball, Kayne Turner's almost mark, Jesse Hogan among various other AFL related conversations. Petracca as those who have seen his interviews have probably gathered was the louder of the two and was up and about and clearly enjoying the day. Laverde I'd describe as the more discrete of the two and while still an active participant conversationally, certainly the quieter of the two. In any case, it's good to see them both at the game supporting their past team-mates, although with the game fairly lop-sided they did both leave at 3/4 time.

As for the game.

This game was the Blake Hardwick show, with Hardwick kicking 8 goals, showing the hot hand and his team mates recognising it by consistently going to him in the front half. He converted most of his set shot opportunities whether they were front directly in front, from range or from the boundary. Took numerous marks on the lead creating good separation and showing the ability to find the spaces left behind in the front half for easy uncontested marks. He also at times found some ball up the ground and found his targets. My only knock on this performance from Hardwick is on a couple of occasions dropped some marks he should take every time and that consistency overhead will be something to watch for, but otherwise he was solid overhead and very good overall. Hardwick is able to have monster games like this and had a few and an 8 goal performance late last year so it will be interesting to see whether he can build on this performance and continue churning out big games this season with a greater level of consistency.

James Parsons was the other real highlight from Eastern also putting forward a very strong performance. Parsons kicked a couple of goals, while also missing a couple, missing one from 45m and another from the boundary, after missing that shot from the boundary I liked on a kick shortly after also from the boundary he looked inside finding a team-mate 20m out directly in front. He showed that could convert from general play on the run and also find targets up the field and inside 50. He took some nice marks on the lead as well as one notable grab up high in the air. Overall as a 189cm player he showed some ability and looms a potential late 1st or probable second round prospect I would have thought at this early stage.

Dylan Clarke for Eastern as an underager was impressive. He reads the flight exceptionally well and can take his share of intercept marks, taking a number of them as well as some nice 1v1 intercept marks. He can find his targets on the lead and do so consistently (as surprising as it sounds too many at this level struggle to do this with the TAC Cup a game of constant turnovers with only a small few genuinely consistent by foot and skilled). He is a hard tackler and really buried some guys in his tackles which is nice to see from a guy with a strong body. The one knock I have is at the very end he showed poor hands below his knees, just not having that cleanness and that will be something for him to work on.

Ryan Clarke showed some really promising signs. Particularly impressive was his play where he showed some real dash with ball in hand and then using a nice evasive move to avoid a tackler. He had some nice finishes on goal, one from 50m and another from the boundary, and later on also showing that he can convert set shots for a further goal. So there were more than enough signs there where you'd have him on your watch-list as possibly something if he can build on that performance.

Rory Sheridan-Ferrie as an overager had his moments and is someone where he can really at times have an impact with not a lot of touches. He showed some nice run and carry at times. Had a nice ground-ball pickup near goal with a nice finish and also found some nice targets at times. In saying all this he is still the same incredibly frustrating player who still too often gives poor effort and shows poor smarts out on the field and like last year will again in my mind without question be the most frustrating player to watch in that Tom Lamb kind of way for those who have watch Tom Lamb regularly, or for those non TAC Cup watchers your Mitch Morton.

Anthony Daw is one worth commenting about as someone pretty hard not to notice out there. He is an overager and 196cm. Has a nice leap on him and has a powerful body, he can get up there and get the ruck taps fairly clearly at this level which is a good starting point. Just the rest of his game is exceptionally raw and requiring work to the extent that he can't even deliver a handball over short distances to a target, missing 2-3 handballs to target badly. It will be interesting to watch his progress over the season with this his improvement being a raw prospect what he will be judged on.

For the benefit of Pies fans as I know I'll get questions on Sam Weideman, he had his moments, kicked a couple of goals, presented up to the footy well and took a few nice grabs. So there were signs. But it was a far from dominant performance in what was for his team a big win, so personally given Weideman is a strong chance to go first round, I would have liked to have seen a more dominant performance.
 
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Think you'll find that Moseley is no longer part of the academy and has signed a contract with the Broncos. That seems to be the whispers on our board anyway. I see that you rate Keays very highly which is good but I think he'll go second round. The romantic in me hopes to see Schache come to us with the link of his father.
 
Think you'll find that Moseley is no longer part of the academy and has signed a contract with the Broncos. That seems to be the whispers on our board anyway. I see that you rate Keays very highly which is good but I think he'll go second round. The romantic in me hopes to see Schache come to us with the link of his father.

I don't have that information on Moseley but unfortunate if he has chosen rugby over AFL as that tackling side of his game particularly was really exceptional and with a further year of development who knows how good he could be.

Keays has the opportunity to be one of the best 1/2 in the draft. He'd have to drop off badly not to go first round to Brisbane. He's as good as Dayne Beams and actually has a pretty similar game to Beams and a case could be made he's a little better. He is certainly Queensland's best junior prospect in a long time and certainly since Beams. Just have such strong ability overhead, being able to provide such strong scoreboard impact and having such a good inside/outside midfield game. He has the complete package and a lot of weapons.
If Brisbane weren't going to use a first round pick on Keays, I'd more than happily have Collingwood with a high first round pick take Keays off your hands.
 
Shows that with the best Kids are Academy Kids. Showing that Unless Northern Teams have top 3-5 Picks they should have to give up more then just there 1st Pick
 
Shows that with the best Kids are Academy Kids. Showing that Unless Northern Teams have top 3-5 Picks they should have to give up more then just there 1st Pick
Oh god:rolleyes: When was the last time a Queensland kid went top 10 or even top 20 for that matter and how frequently does this occur?
 
Shows that with the best Kids are Academy Kids. Showing that Unless Northern Teams have top 3-5 Picks they should have to give up more then just there 1st Pick

You mean like how you got Moore on the cheap....funny how these rules come in the year after you get Moore for a packet of peanuts!
 
That is not going to be the system in 2015 though. If Mills and Dunkley are both top 5 picks the Swans are going to have to pay an arm and a leg to get both of them.

Could they even Pay for Both?
 
Could they even Pay for Both?

Yes but it would take a lot of work. I worked it out a few weeks ago. For this I assumed the points system would stay the same and Mills would be pick 1 and Dunkley pick 8

That means

Mills - 3000 points - 25% discount = 2250 points
Dunkley - 1551 points - 15% discount = 1318 points

That is a total of 3568 points

or the equal of pick 5 (1878 points) and pick 7 (1644 points) which equals 3622 points (so very close).

Lets say we finish 3rd this year on the table.

That gives us

Pick 16 - 1067 points
Pick 34 - 542 points
Pick 52 - 246 points
Pick 70 - 39 points

That is a total of 1894 points. That is not even enough to get Mills.

With the 1894 points to get Mills we would need to trade for a minimum of pick 44 (362 points) and in order to get Dunkley and Mills we would need either to trade to get pick 6 outright or we would need trade to get something like picks 23 and 24. Basically we would need an extra 1674 points.

So with this system in order to get Mills and Dunkley we would need

Picks 16, 23, 24, 34, 52 and 70.

So if we used 6 draft picks we could get 2 players.

Also for reference here are the points again

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf
 

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You mean like how you got Moore on the cheap....funny how these rules come in the year after you get Moore for a packet of peanuts!

Big Difference in the Bidding.

There was 3 Spots between the Bid and the Pick we used for Moore. Even that it was on the Cheap.

There was 16 Spots between the Bid Pick for Heeney and the Pick the Swans Used.

That is a Big Difference
 
Yes, will definately pay for Mills for starters, and if Dunkley costs a 2nd round in 2015 + 2016 that is okay I guess.

Well IF Dunkly is Rated as a top 5-10 Talent I think you need more then just 2 2nd Rounders.

Mills sounds like a No Brainer and he could cost you a 1st and 2nd Round Pick. Depending on where you Finish
 
Does not seem to be a lot of top quality key tall forwards in this draft.

There are a number of bigs with the opportunity to rise up draft boards around the country, but for me anyway at this stage I'm still waiting to see how they develop this season.

Jacob Weitering, Joshua Schache, Sam Weideman, Kieran Collins, Sam Skinner and Matthew Allen are all plausible first round selections as key position players, so while there may only be one or two in the top 10, it's still a fairly reasonable year for key position players if a number of these players go in the back end of the first round as looks highly likely at this stage.
 
Yes but it would take a lot of work. I worked it out a few weeks ago. For this I assumed the points system would stay the same and Mills would be pick 1 and Dunkley pick 8

That means

Mills - 3000 points - 25% discount = 2250 points
Dunkley - 1551 points - 15% discount = 1318 points

That is a total of 3568 points

or the equal of pick 5 (1878 points) and pick 7 (1644 points) which equals 3622 points (so very close).

Lets say we finish 3rd this year on the table.

That gives us

Pick 16 - 1067 points
Pick 34 - 542 points
Pick 52 - 246 points
Pick 70 - 39 points

That is a total of 1894 points. That is not even enough to get Mills.

With the 1894 points to get Mills we would need to trade for a minimum of pick 44 (362 points) and in order to get Dunkley and Mills we would need either to trade to get pick 6 outright or we would need trade to get something like picks 23 and 24. Basically we would need an extra 1674 points.

So with this system in order to get Mills and Dunkley we would need

Picks 16, 23, 24, 34, 52 and 70.

So if we used 6 draft picks we could get 2 players.

Also for reference here are the points again

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf
Others here will rejoice but I think that it's actually crazy to have to use all of your draft picks and then get rid of two players who would net you a second round pick for both traded players.
 
There are a number of bigs with the opportunity to rise up draft boards around the country, but for me anyway at this stage I'm still waiting to see how they develop this season.

Jacob Weitering, Joshua Schache, Sam Weideman, Kieran Collins, Sam Skinner and Matthew Allen are all plausible first round selections as key position players, so while there may only be one or two in the top 10, it's still a fairly reasonable year for key position players if a number of these players go in the back end of the first round as looks highly likely at this stage.

Ryan Burton?....Dominated as an under-ager at last year's carnival before succumbing to injury!
 
Ryan Burton?....Dominated as an under-ager at last year's carnival before succumbing to injury!

Ryan Burton is terrific and I agree at this point he is a first round talent based on what he produced in the 2014 season but I class him as more a leadup forward flanker as something of this years Sam Mayes equivalent as that tall flanker who can take a grab overhead, but at 190cm or low 190s if he's grown, I don't look at him and see him developing into a genuine key position player.
 
76. West Coast – Darcy Macpherson (VIC – WCE F/S – FWD)
Height: 172.7cm, Weight: 67.5kg, DOB: 29/10/1997
Recruited from: Northern Knights
Range: 30-rookie
Profile: Small pressure forward.

He is a Western Bulldog f/s...
 
Well IF Dunkly is Rated as a top 5-10 Talent I think you need more then just 2 2nd Rounders.

Mills sounds like a No Brainer and he could cost you a 1st and 2nd Round Pick. Depending on where you Finish

Is this suggesting that any academy kid who happens to be "Rated" before the draft as a top 5 pick should cost the club that found and trained them their first AND second round picks?
 
Is this suggesting that any academy kid who happens to be "Rated" before the draft as a top 5 pick should cost the club that found and trained them their first AND second round picks?

If only a couple of clubs have an academy then yes, the obvious advantages it gives those few clubs need to be balanced out somehow.
 
If only a couple of clubs have an academy then yes, the obvious advantages it gives those few clubs need to be balanced out somehow.

Theres Balance and then theres forcing a club to use all its picks on a kid who could end up the next Tambling or Watts. And then letting another club take him for bugger all and getting the next Beams or Franklin.
 
76. West Coast – Darcy Macpherson (VIC – WCE F/S – FWD)
Height: 172.7cm, Weight: 67.5kg, DOB: 29/10/1997
Recruited from: Northern Knights
Range: 30-rookie
Profile: Small pressure forward.

He is a Western Bulldog f/s...

He has to Agree to it 1st and IF rated that low. They might just nominate him as a Rookie F/S
 
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