Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Wizard17]

He has to Agree to it 1st and IF rated that low. They might just nominate him as a Rookie F/S

I know all that. It was just the way he worded that made it sound like he was a West Coast f/s I was just pointing that out

 

[Knightmare]

Darcy Macpherson (VIC – WCE F/S – FWD)

He is a Western Bulldog f/s...

Sometimes you can just be completely aware of something and completely miss it on going through it.

Changed on page 1 for accuracy.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Wow, and I thought we overrated Academy players on the Brisbane board.

In a world without bidding, Keays would be much more likely to go second round than top 5.

I expect we will get Keays and still keep our first round selection.

 

[RUNVS]

Wow, and I thought we overrated Academy players on the Brisbane board.

In a world without bidding, Keays would be much more likely to go second round than top 5.

I'm also somewhat skeptical that both Mills and Dunkley are both top 3 players in this years draft but I am willing to deserve judgement until I see more of them in the NAB U18 Championship.

 

[Knightmare]

Wow, and I thought we overrated Academy players on the Brisbane board.

In a world without bidding, Keays would be much more likely to go second round than top 5.

I expect we will get Keays and still keep our first round selection.

Second round? Seriously? I couldn't disagree more strongly based on what I saw of him through the u18 champs last year.

If that's what Brisbane are going to value Keays as I'd more than happily snap him up with a first round pick as a recruiter of another team. Keays just has so many tricks and has the production on the board. Forward or midfield. So strong overhead and 1v1. Can win the inside ball. Uses it beautifully finding his targets but then also finishing in front of goal.

The others relative to Keays just don't have as many weapons, as well rounded a game or as much production on the board and as such Keays I'd deem anyway a sure-fire first round quality pick and someone I'd take top 5 in a hurry at this time.

Only Mills is better in my books. Maybe Dunkley if you're after a contested ball winning beast would I be willing to consider as an alternative in an open draft. I just don't have anyone else after those three in that conversation until they force their way into the conversation with performance.

 

[lionshine]

Second round? Seriously? I couldn't disagree more strongly based on what I saw of him through the u18 champs last year.

If that's what Brisbane are going to value Keays as I'd more than happily snap him up with a first round pick as a recruiter of another team. Keays just has so many tricks and has the production on the board. Forward or midfield. So strong overhead and 1v1. Can win the inside ball. Uses it beautifully finding his targets but then also finishing in front of goal.

The others relative to Keays just don't have as many weapons, as well rounded a game or as much production on the board and as such Keays I'd deem anyway a sure-fire first round quality pick and someone I'd take top 5 in a hurry at this time.

Only Mills is better in my books. Maybe Dunkley if you're after a contested ball winning beast would I be willing to consider as an alternative in an open draft. I just don't have anyone else after those three in that conversation until they force their way into the conversation with performance.

Excuse Lions fans for being skeptical but for the past two years we heard that Issac Conway and Liam Dawson respectively were gun 1st round prospects around one year out from their draft year. Come draft time the Lions didn't even bid on Conway and we secured Dawson with pick 44. I understand that Keays is rated even higher than those two and has most likely shown a lot more but I highly doubt Keays will be rated as a top 10 pick after the Champs. Vic Metro, Vic Country, SA and WA prospects are all rated much higher then Div 2 players after the champs regardless of individuals output.

 

[iBeng]

In what world is it fair that we could be forced to pay a first round, second round and third round in order to make up a value to a number devised by a group of people who can apparently see the future...Or let another club take him for a pick that could be after ours?

 

[Grockadoc]

What are your thoughts on Gach Nyuon Knightmare?

 

[CharlieKelly]

hey KM, Brendan Dew from Central District, any relation to Stewart?

 

[Membling]

Second round? Seriously? I couldn't disagree more strongly based on what I saw of him through the u18 champs last year.

If that's what Brisbane are going to value Keays as I'd more than happily snap him up with a first round pick as a recruiter of another team. Keays just has so many tricks and has the production on the board. Forward or midfield. So strong overhead and 1v1. Can win the inside ball. Uses it beautifully finding his targets but then also finishing in front of goal.

The others relative to Keays just don't have as many weapons, as well rounded a game or as much production on the board and as such Keays I'd deem anyway a sure-fire first round quality pick and someone I'd take top 5 in a hurry at this time.

Only Mills is better in my books. Maybe Dunkley if you're after a contested ball winning beast would I be willing to consider as an alternative in an open draft. I just don't have anyone else after those three in that conversation until they force their way into the conversation with performance.

Good thing is if Swans want both (and they want to come to swans) we can nab them with points from next years draft.

Expensive but if your rankings are good, worth it.

 

[Knightmare]

Excuse Lions fans for being skeptical but for the past two years we heard that Issac Conway and Liam Dawson respectively were gun 1st round prospects around one year out from their draft year. Come draft time the Lions didn't even bid on Conway and we secured Dawson with pick 44. I understand that Keays is rated even higher than those two and has most likely shown a lot more but I highly doubt Keays will be rated as a top 10 pick after the Champs. Vic Metro, Vic Country, SA and WA prospects are all rated much higher then Div 2 players after the champs regardless of individuals output.

Conway and Dawson both showed promise as underagers but failed to improve. Both had their flaws and neither really by foot were at any stage terrific.

Looking directly at what Keays can do not relative to the other Victorians/those from other states, I just look at his game as clearly better.

Of those other top end guys you've got Parish who is only 180cm and more a combo mid without as strong a contested side to his game and he's definitely not as damaging as Keays forward of centre. Balic has talent but isn't nearly as productive as Keays, same story with Ah Chee. Tucker is outside only and while damaging/quick doesn't have that ability to win his own footy. O'Kearney while more productive doesn't have the same ball use or weapons. Mathieson same story as O'Kearney and a worse ball user. Burton as a leadup forward is just that and doesn't have the ability Keays does to play through the midfield. Then Weitering and Schache as talls aren't really comparable so directly.

On talent lining these guys up attribute by attribute, production by production. Keays today offers more than everyone in my eyes bar Mills and maybe Dunkley depending on what you value in a midfielder. As long as Keays continues to improve at the rate of the other top end prospects there is no reason why he can't be at least a first round quality prospect and more probably a top 5 prospect. He is the complete package.

In an open draft I would be lobbying for Collingwood to take Keays if there was any possibility he would be available. I really appreciate his game that much as a midfielder you can so easily slot into the front half and rotate into the midfield. He does it so well.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on Gach Nyuon Knightmare?

Gach Nyuon is one many will talk about. A bit like Duom Duwan last year Nyuon similarly is an athletic guy who can get up there and get some hitouts, but he also has a light body and doesn't find much of it or really have that great an impact around the ground.

Nyuon will be judged this year on his development, if he improves greatly. He has a shot. If he comes back as the same guy who can hardly find the footy or have any meaningful influence on the outcome then he'll go undrafted.

hey KM, Brendan Dew from Central District, any relation to Stewart?

I'm not aware if they are related. I'm sure someone will let us know if they are.

If you look at their statures then there definitely isn't a similarity anyway so I'll just treat Brendan as his own player even if they are in some way related.

In terms of his game. He is a combo mid/fwd. He isn't tall or strongly build but he can find the footy up the ground, win the contested ball, tackles well, can offer a reliable leadup target and hit the scoreboard. His game is something like a Ben McGlynn to give you a feel for roughly the type of game he offers. So he is a good footballer in his own right.

Good thing is if Swans want both (and they want to come to swans) we can nab them with points from next years draft.

Expensive but if your rankings are good, worth it.

Whenever you can get midfielders like Mills and Dunkley. You take that chance. Mills last year was already as good if not sightly more advanced than Heeney which is staggering for a guy who will only this year be draft eligible, then Dunkley plays a game so extremely similar to Josh Kennedy as that tall, strong bodied contested ball winning midfielder who's production is without equal in this years draft class and then also has the ability to push forward, take a mark and kick a goal. Sydney will be laughing as a top 4 team to even have a shot at one, let alone two of these star midfielders. I struggle to see a scenario where both won't be in my top three at seasons end on my draft board, or top five as an absolute worst case scenario. I don't have any doubts about either of them and I have them both based on what I look for a long way ahead of the competition. This isn't to say neither have areas to improve on, but instead rather their games today in my mind so clearly stack up against the pros that the question instead is not whether they'll make it but rather how good/great they can both be at the next level.

 

[Grockadoc]

Cheers KM. Was just wondering as Nyuon trained with us at one point last year and impressed a couple of the boys, so there were rumblings we might be interested in him come draft time.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers KM. Was just wondering as Nyuon trained with us at one point last year and impressed a couple of the boys, so there were rumblings we might be interested in him come draft time.

Interesting if he trained well. He is raw and will need significant time as he is just so far back. He won't be more than a rookie selection I can't imagine, but with improvement and if he can add a few tricks/weapons, we just have to let the season play out and see if he can take that next step.

 

[Grockadoc]

Interesting if he trained well. He is raw and will need significant time as he is just so far back. He won't be more than a rookie selection I can't imagine, but with improvement and if he can add a few tricks/weapons, we just have to let the season play out and see if he can take that next step.

I wouldn't say he trained well, but there were some passages that left onlookers with their jaws on the floor. He is the type of player I think we are now in a position to draft.

 

[Membling]

Whenever you can get midfielders like Mills and Dunkley. You take that chance. Mills last year was already as good if not sightly more advanced than Heeney which is staggering for a guy who will only this year be draft eligible, then Dunkley plays a game so extremely similar to Josh Kennedy as that tall, strong bodied contested ball winning midfielder who's production is without equal in this years draft class and then also has the ability to push forward, take a mark and kick a goal. Sydney will be laughing as a top 4 team to even have a shot at one, let alone two of these star midfielders. I struggle to see a scenario where both won't be in my top three at seasons end on my draft board, or top five as an absolute worst case scenario. I don't have any doubts about either of them and I have them both based on what I look for a long way ahead of the competition. This isn't to say neither have areas to improve on, but instead rather their games today in my mind so clearly stack up against the pros that the question instead is not whether they'll make it but rather how good/great they can both be at the next level.

I honestly expect (hope) the swans try and attempt to curb the enthusiasm about these two by limiting game time for Mills and having a chat to state and TAC teams. Not to try and get them out of round 1 as that horse has bolted but to let the Tucker's, Parish's, O'Kearney's and Weirderman's to overtake them.

Probably a hope and a prayer.

 

[SizeMatters]

Keays also dominates the NEAFL for his club Redland Bombers, regularly named amongst the bests. Even I can tell he is the complete package after only viewing one of his games live.

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't say he trained well, but there were some passages that left onlookers with their jaws on the floor. He is the type of player I think we are now in a position to draft.

Highlight plays I take it.

If he can offer some Tom Nicholls type glimpses with a high enough frequency, that would be a huge outcome.

I honestly expect (hope) the swans try and attempt to curb the enthusiasm about these two by limiting game time for Mills and having a chat to state and TAC teams. Not to try and get them out of round 1 as that horse has bolted but to let the Tucker's, Parish's, O'Kearney's and Weirderman's to overtake them.

Probably a hope and a prayer.

With father son selections and same goes with academy selections my opinion is you want all of them to have the best possible years in their draft year. Have them as advanced as possible when they come into your club so that you can pick them with confidence beyond doubt and have them come into your team most able to have an impact.

We saw last year with Alec Waterman as a West Coast father son selection go into the year as a potential first round selection and end up dropping to West Coast's final national draft selection. It would be terrific for West Coast if he developed into an absolute monster last year and would be AFL ready for this year as a really big bodied midfielder. Instead they've just got a guy late draft who is a questionable to even make it at AFL level.

With the academy and father son, you're still relatively getting a discount and getting an opportunity to get in Sydney's case extreme level talents that would not be available normally. I'd love in Sydney's position to see them both become consensus top two overall selections in this years draft and perform to such a level that it is clear beyond doubt that they are those top two players in the country and can step into the team in round one 2016 and have an impact.

In any case it will be interesting to see at the top end who raises their draft stocks and who eventually bids on Mills and Dunkley and what picks they eventually bid.

 

[Billy Puller]

How convenient the top 3 picks are all academy & f/s for the northern state. Geeze knight I love your work but this is pretty blatant bias to get the anti academies people's knickers in a knot. Can't wait to watch them drop down the draft board as the year goes on.

 

[Knightmare]

How convenient the top 3 picks are all academy & f/s for the northern state. Geeze knight I love your work but this is pretty blatant bias to get the anti academies people's knickers in a knot. Can't wait to watch them drop down the draft board as the year goes on.

I'm less down on the academy as impressed with the way the academy is really developing some really relevant draft prospects.

Mills and Keays are both legit. They were two of four of this years draft eligible prospect to make the u18 All Australian team through last years u18 champs. The others are Darcy Tucker who can really play with his pace and footskills, but hasn't proven he can win his own ball which isn't good enough in my view for a potential top pick and then Rhys Mathieson who is a productive mid but lacks the polish by foot to be a top pick at this point in time.
Mills and Keays don't have those flaws/limitations. They're both just flat out better than those others getting spoken about as early picks at this stage.

It's going to take a lot for that really top three on my draft board to move anywhere. Unless the high hurt factor guys drastically improve their production, the inside guys learn to use the footy better and the outside guys learn to win more inside ball. I just don't see anyone touching my top three this season.
Doesn't mean it won't happen. But I have some real separation right now on my draft board based on what these guys are bringing to the table.


Brisbane from an Academy perspective also really have the potential to have an incredible year if some of these guys develop as they're threatening to. Not only Keays, but Hipwood, Nate Dennis, Corey Wagner and Moseley if he is still playing. I'm interesting to see how good that whole group can become.

My question this year regarding the academies is actually what Gold Coast are doing. They just don't like Brisbane have so many who loom as potential draft selections and they're the only of the four clubs with the academies to really feel like they're wasting their opportunity to churn out some really excellent talent.

 

[Billy Puller]

I'm less down on the academy as impressed with the way the academy is really developing some really relevant draft prospects.

Mills and Keays are both legit. They were two of four of this years draft eligible prospect to make the u18 All Australian team through last years u18 champs. The others are Darcy Tucker who can really play with his pace and footskills, but hasn't proven he can win his own ball which isn't good enough in my view for a potential top pick and then Rhys Mathieson who is a productive mid but lacks the polish by foot to be a top pick at this point in time.
Mills and Keays don't have those flaws/limitations. They're both just flat out better than those others getting spoken about as early picks at this stage.

It's going to take a lot for that really top three on my draft board to move anywhere. Unless the high hurt factor guys drastically improve their production, the inside guys learn to use the footy better and the outside guys learn to win more inside ball. I just don't see anyone touching my top three this season.
Doesn't mean it won't happen. But I have some real separation right now on my draft board based on what these guys are bringing to the table.


Brisbane from an Academy perspective also really have the potential to have an incredible year if some of these guys develop as they're threatening to. Not only Keays, but Hipwood, Nate Dennis, Corey Wagner and Moseley if he is still playing. I'm interesting to see how good that whole group can become.

My question this year regarding the academies is actually what Gold Coast are doing. They just don't like Brisbane have so many who loom as potential draft selections and they're the only of the four clubs with the academies to really feel like they're wasting their opportunity to churn out some really excellent talent.

Gold coast academy beat brisbanes last week or the week before. So they must be doing something right. And well you seem to have changed your stance a bit. Unless my memory is wrong I remember you ring very anti academies last time this topic came up. Not trying to be disrespectful or anything I really admire your work.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Wow, and I thought we overrated Academy players on the Brisbane board.

In a world without bidding, Keays would be much more likely to go second round than top 5.

I expect we will get Keays and still keep our first round selection.

You have 2 chance of that happening....Buckley's & none!....I've heard of wishful thinking, but this takes the cake!

 

[Knightmare]

Gold coast academy beat brisbanes last week or the week before. So they must be doing something right. And well you seem to have changed your stance a bit. Unless my memory is wrong I remember you ring very anti academies last time this topic came up. Not trying to be disrespectful or anything I really admire your work.

With the academy I don't feel threatened by it as much - mostly because I don't see Collingwood being relevant for the next 10, maybe 15 years for it to matter big picture.

I was anti academies last year, or at least to the extent that the system as constructed at the time I didn't like, conceptually I liked however what the academy system set out to achieve from the start. I personally favoured/still favour going to a system where the 4 clubs with the academies would be locked out of the national draft and have the clubs only able to access their academy talent to really encourage the clubs to grow the talent pool and get that optimal growth in NSW and QLD. And the guys from the academy would just be straight signed onto the team senior list. Then those academy kids who don't get picked up can just go into the main national draft. For those clubs with academies who don't fill their list with the academy selections they'd then be able to go to the preseason draft.

As for the current system. It goes better about creating that fairness, but given the importance of growing the game in NSW + QLD and growing the talent from those states to create the best possible AFL product, I would slightly prefer the system I proposed above.

That's my personal opinion anyway. Everyone will have their own takes on how it should run and what type of system should exist.

 

[RUNVS]

With the academy I don't feel threatened by it as much - mostly because I don't see Collingwood being relevant for the next 10, maybe 15 years for it to matter big picture.

I was anti academies last year, or at least to the extent that the system as constructed at the time I didn't like, conceptually I liked however what the academy system set out to achieve from the start. I personally favoured/still favour going to a system where the 4 clubs with the academies would be locked out of the national draft and have the clubs only able to access their academy talent to really encourage the clubs to grow the talent pool and get that optimal growth in NSW and QLD. And the guys from the academy would just be straight signed onto the team senior list. Then those academy kids who don't get picked up can just go into the main national draft. For those clubs with academies who don't fill their list with the academy selections they'd then be able to go to the preseason draft.

As for the current system. It goes better about creating that fairness, but given the importance of growing the game in NSW + QLD and growing the talent from those states to create the best possible AFL product, I would slightly prefer the system I proposed above.

That's my personal opinion anyway. Everyone will have their own takes on how it should run and what type of system should exist.

I agree entirely with that and as a Swans fan would be completely okay with that but the AFL would never agree to it, not in a million years. Basically I would like

- The Swans not to participate in the National draft at all
- Academy players signed straight to the Swans list
- Access to the rookie draft (should not be much of a problem but the rookie draft gives some flexibility as you can't always rely on a zone to find players for every position)
- and possible access to father/son. It would only happen every so often but like with everyone I want to see the sons of Swans greats playing for the Swans.

 

[Hollow Knight]

You have 2 chance of that happening....Buckley's & none!....I've heard of wishful thinking, but this takes the cake!

We'll see. Hammelmann, Tickner, Conway, Smith and Dawson went nowhere near as high as the draft watchers predicted. In fact, we had people here telling us prior to trade week that if we gave up our second rounder in the Beams trade we would be kissing Hammelmann goodbye. We got him in the rookie draft.

Keays is a tier above these guys, but i don't think he will be rated in the top 5, or 10 for that matter when all is said and done. If he kicks on this year and demands a first rounder, I won't be upset, but our Academy kids have consistently been overrated from the start.

It's all just opinion, no need to get carried away.