Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Who do you have ahead of the two Smith or Walsh

Walsh will be Carlton's pick at 1.

Smith is the midfielder I believe will have the better career.

 

[eagle eyed]

Hey mate, do you have access to supercoach scores for the draftees? I’ve got pick 7 in a keeper league and would be interested in some advice on who to pick. I’ll probably go best available but short of that I could really do with a fwd or f/m. Cheers


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Brenton Davy]

One a little out of left field

Callum Wilkie
22yo 191cm, 87kg
Left footer
Defender/Swingman

Missed out in his draft year but starred in the SANFL finals and won the B&F with premiers North Adelaide.

Was invited to the SA Draft Combine. Do you see him being drafted and, if so, where and by whom?

 

[Wymo]

KM, I'm a big wrap for Chayce Jones. Just wondering how he compares, in your eyes, to the more highly fancied Sam Walsh in terms of contested ball winning, impact forward of centre/scoreboard impact and foot skills?

 

[Ravenhawke]

KM I know you've covered a bit on both Walsh and Smith and I know Carlton are picking Walsh. Both have a lot of the same sorts of strengths and weaknesses.

What do you think is the biggest point of separation between the two?

 

[mighty_sainters]

Hey Knightmare

I’m torn with pick 4.

I was looking back at the 2014 draft and Mccartin was in everyone’s top pick contention, but now he wouldn’t be in the top 30 players drafted that year.

Obviously worried that he was such a big bodied player that could outmuscle kids his own age but won’t develop. Should we be worried MKing could do something similar, potentially like Boyd, Peter Wright etc?

I think if Rankine slides to 4 we should take him ahead of Smith or MKing.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, do you have access to supercoach scores for the draftees? I’ve got pick 7 in a keeper league and would be interested in some advice on who to pick. I’ll probably go best available but short of that I could really do with a fwd or f/m. Cheers


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Don't have any supercoach scores.

Bailey Smith and Sam Walsh are the two you'd want for supercoach output.

Rankine would be nice if there. Lukosius as I can't imagine. Maybe a Jackson Hately around 7. Xavier Duursma could be considered.

One a little out of left field

Callum Wilkie
22yo 191cm, 87kg
Left footer
Defender/Swingman

Missed out in his draft year but starred in the SANFL finals and won the B&F with premiers North Adelaide.

Was invited to the SA Draft Combine. Do you see him being drafted and, if so, where and by whom?

Like him. Good skills. Able reboudner. Had a good year and looks like he could slot in on a half-back flank for a club in need.

GWS with their aging backline could use him. Sydney could be one side who might like him. Anyone short of a clean kicking backman could use him.

KM, I'm a big wrap for Chayce Jones. Just wondering how he compares, in your eyes, to the more highly fancied Sam Walsh in terms of contested ball winning, impact forward of centre/scoreboard impact and foot skills?

In those areas he matches up fairly well with Walsh. He's bigger bodied and may only be a touch behind Walsh as a contested ball winner. Forward of centre both are able and hit the scoreboard without being standouts. Walsh probably a touch more consistent and the better short kick but Jones is probably the more duel sided mid.

KM I know you've covered a bit on both Walsh and Smith and I know Carlton are picking Walsh. Both have a lot of the same sorts of strengths and weaknesses.

What do you think is the biggest point of separation between the two?

With Smith I see the differences as him being a better contested ball winner, better kick and more explosive athlete.

Walsh has less distinct advantages over Smith, mostly being in the form of he'll find more outside ball.

Hey Knightmare

I’m torn with pick 4.

I was looking back at the 2014 draft and Mccartin was in everyone’s top pick contention, but now he wouldn’t be in the top 30 players drafted that year.

Obviously worried that he was such a big bodied player that could outmuscle kids his own age but won’t develop. Should we be worried MKing could do something similar, potentially like Boyd, Peter Wright etc?

I think if Rankine slides to 4 we should take him ahead of Smith or MKing.

McCartin wasn't a consensus number one. I had him at 5 in my power rankings.

I feel like a lot of the recent big marking forwards drafted have brought down the perception of their viability a lot further than should be the case. You've had Thomas Boyd who has had mental health issues. Jon Patton who has done three ACL's, but in 2017 when he last played as a key forward, only Charlie Dixon managed the same or better in marks, contested marks and goals per game. Peter Wright is in Gold Coast where player development is poor and not enough veteran leadership exists. So in each of those cases, there are clear reasons why they're not performing to the levels expected going into their respective drafts.

If I'm picking for Saints. While I like Max King, I do prefer Izak Rankine and Bailey Smith.

Saints could pretty easily throw a third round pick at GWS and secure Jon Patton.

 

[Conca Cuddle]

Hey Knightmate, Luke Valente a chance to make it to the Tigers at pick 17?

 

[Wild Bill]

Slight regression. Mostly just hasn't come along.

My issue since the start of the season has been he's a small who doesn't find/win enough of the footy. And then on top of that not showing any improvement - noting that smalls are more what you see is what you get. So I don't rate him all that highly with all those factors in combination suggesting he probably won't develop.

Clubs seem to have him around the early second round mark is my feel and rate him more highly than I do.

Perfect get for WCE like Higgins for the Tigers the year before.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmate, Luke Valente a chance to make it to the Tigers at pick 17?

Valente from around that point will come into the mix. Probably goes 20-40, but could go late teens. Well worth it for mine as a prolific ball winner who uses the ball exceptionally well.

Perfect get for WCE like Higgins for the Tigers the year before.

Higgins never regressed. His draft year was as outstanding as any in the pool.

 

[HedgeFund]

Higgins never regressed. His draft year was as outstanding as any in the pool.

Yep - and his speech when accepting the Morrish Medal was outstanding as well. Anyone who thinks Higgins slipped due to poor output in 2017 knows jack all about football.

He can’t help it if he’s a midget. He’s an excellent footballing midget though....

 

[LemmingMaster]

Yep - and his speech when accepting the Morrish Medal was outstanding as well. Anyone who thinks Higgins slipped due to poor output in 2017 knows jack all about football.

He can’t help it if he’s a midget. He’s an excellent footballing midget though....

Caleb Daniel was an excellent footballing midget as well and dropped because of the height concerns.

 

[jd2010]

Is it worth carlton trading down from Sam Walsh and getting Bailey Smith and either a King or Rozee?

 

[Knightmare]

Is it worth carlton trading down from Sam Walsh and getting Bailey Smith and either a King or Rozee?

I'd keep pick 1 and draft Lukosius.

But rating Bailey Smith more highly than Sam Walsh, I absolutely would move down to Bailey Smith from Sam Walsh. For mine he's the better footballer, so why wouldn't you want an extra pick in addition to Smith?

I'm sure Carlton's recruiting team wouldn't agree with me though. They love Walsh. But he's not my pick 1 if I'm picking.

 

[6yearsold]

what are your thoughts on pa and jason cripps coming out and saying were just going to get them in a couple of years anyway. i think pa should be fined.

 

[PMBangers]

what are your thoughts on pa and jason cripps coming out and saying were just going to get them in a couple of years anyway. i think pa should be fined.

That's not at all what he said, it was response to SOS saying Victorians have a lot of choice in comparison to SA talent when looking to go home.

 

[Knightmare]

what are your thoughts on pa and jason cripps coming out and saying were just going to get them in a couple of years anyway. i think pa should be fined.

It's not an ideal look, but at the same time I'm not sure how far you'd go to prevent such comments from happening publicly.

If it was the NBA, Port would cop a fine.

That could be one way the AFL handle it if it's a behaviour they want to make it uncomfortable for clubs to make such statements in the future.

 

[HARKER]

Walsh will be Carlton's pick at 1.

Smith is the midfielder I believe will have the better career.

i.e. Carlton will get it wrong.

I'd happily bet that Walsh will be better than Smith and that MKing & Blakey will be more dangerous forwards than Lukosius.
I like Lukosius but to my eyes the other two have more 'mean' about them, that will hold them in good stead.

 

[Bicks]

i.e. Carlton will get it wrong.

I'd happily bet that Walsh will be better than Smith and that MKing & Blakey will be more dangerous forwards than Lukosius.
I like Lukosius but to my eyes the other two have more 'mean' about them, that will hold them in good stead.

I'm with Knightmare especially re Smith vs Walsh, hurt factor is the big difference that sways in favour of Smith.

 

[HARKER]

I'm with Knightmare especially re Smith vs Walsh, hurt factor is the big difference that sways in favour of Smith.

Walsh finds himself at every contest. He's omnipresent.
Smith is more of a scrapper, albeit an effective one.
I see a lot more upside in Walsh than I do in Smith, but as always.....only time will tell.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Who do you have ahead of the two Smith or Walsh

Why do people ask questions that have been answered a million times? You don't even need to read the whole thread, just look at his power rankings.

 

[Newatthis]

Caleb Daniel was an excellent footballing midget as well and dropped because of the height concerns.

Some are better than others and some take longer to develop than others

 

[bitadash]

Hey KM, love your work! How do you see live trading affecting the draft?
My understand just sees it as exchanging picks ala trade period.. Or will the selection process force moves as clubs scramble for players who are still available and may go at the next pick. I.e lots over overs being paid? Will it be early or later round trades too?
Or will it be quiet in its first year?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, love your work! How do you see live trading affecting the draft?
My understand just sees it as exchanging picks ala trade period.. Or will the selection process force moves as clubs scramble for players who are still available and may go at the next pick. I.e lots over overs being paid? Will it be early or later round trades too?
Or will it be quiet in its first year?

It will be interesting to watch in action.

I suspect the trading will happen if clubs think - this guy is available a lot later than we thought but is no guarantee to make it to our pick or likely won't - and they may go and make offers. When this happens, I suspect clubs will be willing to pay to overs in such instances to get their guys.

Hard to know how many moves will happen. Could be 1, could be 7. Clubs will for the most part probably play it conservatively and be fairly risk averse. But until we see how clubs handle it, we haven't.

 

[fridgeman]

Don't have any supercoach scores.

Bailey Smith and Sam Walsh are the two you'd want for supercoach output.

Rankine would be nice if there. Lukosius as I can't imagine. Maybe a Jackson Hately around 7. Xavier Duursma could be considered.



Like him. Good skills. Able reboudner. Had a good year and looks like he could slot in on a half-back flank for a club in need.

GWS with their aging backline could use him. Sydney could be one side who might like him. Anyone short of a clean kicking backman could use him.



In those areas he matches up fairly well with Walsh. He's bigger bodied and may only be a touch behind Walsh as a contested ball winner. Forward of centre both are able and hit the scoreboard without being standouts. Walsh probably a touch more consistent and the better short kick but Jones is probably the more duel sided mid.



With Smith I see the differences as him being a better contested ball winner, better kick and more explosive athlete.

Walsh has less distinct advantages over Smith, mostly being in the form of he'll find more outside ball.



McCartin wasn't a consensus number one. I had him at 5 in my power rankings.

I feel like a lot of the recent big marking forwards drafted have brought down the perception of their viability a lot further than should be the case. You've had Thomas Boyd who has had mental health issues. Jon Patton who has done three ACL's, but in 2017 when he last played as a key forward, only Charlie Dixon managed the same or better in marks, contested marks and goals per game. Peter Wright is in Gold Coast where player development is poor and not enough veteran leadership exists. So in each of those cases, there are clear reasons why they're not performing to the levels expected going into their respective drafts.

If I'm picking for Saints. While I like Max King, I do prefer Izak Rankine and Bailey Smith.

Saints could pretty easily throw a third round pick at GWS and secure Jon Patton.

Just replying to the bolded part and in theory all backlines are ageing (Blues with Thomas and Simpson, Hawks with Frawley, Birchill, Burgoyne and Stratton) but FYI here is the ages next year of the best 9 option for the backline
Shaw 33
Davis 28
Haynes 26
Williams 24
Corr 24
Adam Kennedy 26
Taylor 19
Cumming 20
Buntine 25
Mohr is retired and Reid (29) does fill in down back sometimes and I think Whitfield (24) will rotate as well