Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[curnow inferno]

But rating Bailey Smith more highly than Sam Walsh, I absolutely would move down to Bailey Smith from Sam Walsh. For mine he's the better footballer, so why wouldn't you want an extra pick in addition to Smith?

I'm sure Carlton's recruiting team wouldn't agree with me though. They love Walsh. But he's not my pick 1 if I'm picking.

What do you think is the reason why walsh is rated higher than smith according to media and afl recruiters? are you basing your assessment a little bit on the fact that smith struggled with achilles bursitis all year and you believe his output would have been greater had he been fit? is it just hype that has grown about walsh due to him winning so many awards this year? or are there other reasons i cant think of? based off your assessment, i am actually hoping carlton trade pick 1 for a pick between 2-4 and something else!!

 

[Knightmare]

Just replying to the bolded part and in theory all backlines are ageing (Blues with Thomas and Simpson, Hawks with Frawley, Birchill, Burgoyne and Stratton) but FYI here is the ages next year of the best 9 option for the backline
Shaw 33
Davis 28
Haynes 26
Williams 24
Corr 24
Adam Kennedy 26
Taylor 19
Cumming 20
Buntine 25
Mohr is retired and Reid (29) does fill in down back sometimes and I think Whitfield (24) will rotate as well

Aged and gone backline to make it 2019 current.

Griffen and Deledio spent time back. Shaw obviously is a mainstay along with Davis.

It's probably more accurate now to describe it as a depleted backline.

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think is the reason why walsh is rated higher than smith according to media and afl recruiters? are you basing your assessment a little bit on the fact that smith struggled with achilles bursitis all year and you believe his output would have been greater had he been fit? is it just hype that has grown about walsh due to him winning so many awards this year? or are there other reasons i cant think of? based off your assessment, i am actually hoping carlton trade pick 1 for a pick between 2-4 and something else!!

Smith even with achilles bursitis when out on the field for mine played the better football.

Walsh having been available throughout the season is the more exposed and able to build more of a reputation as a result.

 

[HedgeFund]

What do you think is the reason why walsh is rated higher than smith according to media and afl recruiters? are you basing your assessment a little bit on the fact that smith struggled with achilles bursitis all year and you believe his output would have been greater had he been fit? is it just hype that has grown about walsh due to him winning so many awards this year? or are there other reasons i cant think of? based off your assessment, i am actually hoping carlton trade pick 1 for a pick between 2-4 and something else!!

The hype about Walsh has to be from his Championships performance.

He got beaten for the Morrish Medal by a guy who most are rating around 15 - 25 in the draft. Obviously plenty of footy has been played since the Champs.

He was a standout in ordinary Vic Country and TAC teams because players kept looking to use him. I’m not so certain he goes number one, I don’t think Carlton are locked in to keeping pick 1, or using it on Walsh for sure.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

He got beaten for the Morrish Medal by a guy who most are rating around 15 - 25 in the draft.

That tends to happen though, right? The guys playing champs miss TAC games and the medal goes to someone who played more. 5 of the past 10 winners didn't even get drafted.

 

[Heaps of fun]

'Trust the process'?

A West Coast or Richmond could pretty easily offer their late second round picks in a Hall exchange. Or Geelong or Collingwood could offer their 2019 second round picks.

If clubs are going to let Hall walk to North Melbourne that cheaply they're not doing their jobs.

North can hand over pick 28 and it's still a good trade, though naturally with other offseason targets the cheaper the better from North's perspective.

Maybe clubs should be enquiring into Gold Coast's pick 2 since it only took Lachie Weller to get it last year.

Pick 68. Bargain.

 

[Knightmare]

Pick 68. Bargain.

Strong agree. One of the bargains of the trade period.

 

[HedgeFund]

That tends to happen though, right? The guys playing champs miss TAC games and the medal goes to someone who played more. 5 of the past 10 winners didn't even get drafted.

Stocker missed the Champs with a broken jaw. He played 12 TAC games to Walsh’s 11.

 

[Schtinker]

Could picks 20 and 22 realistically nett West Coast Luke Valente and Sam Sturt with pick 61 Jarrod Cameron?

 

[Knightmare]

Could picks 20 and 22 realistically nett West Coast Luke Valente and Sam Sturt with pick 61 Jarrod Cameron?

Sturt may be there, but I have him going top 20. Valente probably is there. Cameron I like late and is unlikely to receive an early bid.

 

[ChickenNuggets]

Hey mate, what are your thoughts on a couple of SA boys, Tom Lewis and Kai Pudney? Pudney looks to have tested pretty well at the combine as well as winning the u/18s medal, and Lewis was apparently in the "best" in 10 out of 11 SANFL Reserves games. Are they looking likely to be picked up?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, what are your thoughts on a couple of SA boys, Tom Lewis and Kai Pudney? Pudney looks to have tested pretty well at the combine as well as winning the u/18s medal, and Lewis was apparently in the "best" in 10 out of 11 SANFL Reserves games. Are they looking likely to be picked up?

Both firmly in the mix and both had solid u18 champs.

Lewis is good at stoppages. Pudney is a good hard running mid.

Second half of draft considerations.


*Note Pudney is Port Academy so you'd have to bid to have a shot - assuming Port nominate him.

 

[El Doederino]

It will be interesting to watch in action.

I suspect the trading will happen if clubs think - this guy is available a lot later than we thought but is no guarantee to make it to our pick or likely won't - and they may go and make offers. When this happens, I suspect clubs will be willing to pay to overs in such instances to get their guys.

Hard to know how many moves will happen. Could be 1, could be 7. Clubs will for the most part probably play it conservatively and be fairly risk averse. But until we see how clubs handle it, we haven't.

I think the big one may be the SA clubs waiting to see what GC do before trading any deals for pick 4 or 5

In Adelaides case, if Lukosius somehow slips to 4 (because GC go the Kings at 2 & 3) then we might be willing to go all in to get pick 4 there and then, rather than do that now only to see Lukosius and Rankine taken by GC.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Could picks 20 and 22 realistically nett West Coast Luke Valente and Sam Sturt with pick 61 Jarrod Cameron?

I'd think we'd want mids so wouldn't be interested in Sturt. But we could get Valente and another good mid then get Cameron as small fwd. But I don't think we will be able to match.

 

[Smithy7]

Both firmly in the mix and both had solid u18 champs.

Lewis is good at stoppages. Pudney is a good hard running mid.

Second half of draft considerations.

*Note Pudney is Port Academy so you'd have to bid to have a shot - assuming Port nominate him.

Port will nominate him ... Just for interest .. he has competed in long distance running and won same.

 

[GreyCrow]

Apologies if I have missed his name but where is Jacob Kennerly tracking?

 

[Knightmare]

I think the big one may be the SA clubs waiting to see what GC do before trading any deals for pick 4 or 5

In Adelaides case, if Lukosius somehow slips to 4 (because GC go the Kings at 2 & 3) then we might be willing to go all in to get pick 4 there and then, rather than do that now only to see Lukosius and Rankine taken by GC.

I'm not sure anyone is questioning what Gold Coast are going to do.

They want Lukosius and it's thought Rozee is probably that other choice.

Apologies if I have missed his name but where is Jacob Kennerly tracking?

Firmly in the draft mix and I'm predicting second half of the draft he goes.

Had a good year. Impressed during the U18 champs as an outside mid and in the SANFL U18s while not as dominant as the high end SA talent still did fairly well.

 

[Mango13]

Amusing that they list Darcy Chirgwin as being from Geelong Falcons.

Can you tell me more about Trent Bianco of Oakleigh Chargers please

 

[Thetrader15]

Might have been asked before but where did you see McAdam going?
Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Might have been asked before but where did you see McAdam going?
Cheers

A high leaper and is dangerous around goal.

I saw him going mid-late draft. 40s possibly.

 

[DexterTan]

Knightmare Who do the Dogs draft with Pick 7?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Who do the Dogs draft with Pick 7?

Bailey Smith if there. Ben King is the other who could be there.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

KM, do you think GC might go Lukosious and M King, hoping they can get B King with 6?

Still holding hope the Crows can trade into the top 7 on the night.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, do you think GC might go Lukosious and M King, hoping they can get B King with 6?

Still holding hope the Crows can trade into the top 7 on the night.

They could do.

I suspect with Gold Coast taking the x3 state league KPPs and with the list taking such an enormous step back that they won't and they'll only go with Lukosius of the KPPs and two more immediate players.

My early prediction is they'd go Lukosius/Rozee/Smith.

If it's me, I'd be taking my top 3 of - Lukosius/Rankine/Smith with those picks as the three I consider the best players in this draft.

 

[kotor]

Will the Pies have enough points for both Kelly and Quaynor?