Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

No of course not ... but what you have mentioned make sense to me ..where as the majority of clubs will look at this draft to setup their list , the more picks the better... looking at the mother of all drafts like 2001 and what Geelong managed to do in exactly the right draft can become a foundation.. there will be other clubs that are at the top of the ladder that always preoccupied with the now and will trade for the right players.

Some clubs may see the talent in this draft as a chance to put icing on the talent they already have.. look at the GC board and they , understandably , are already looking at who they should take and other clubs are only worried about making the most of what they already have. Future be dammed.

To get one of those very early picks ..a Hodge scenario will cost too much I feel.. but the picks from 8 to 18 .. may be gettable and as you say those picks will reap players more like much earlier picks in most drafts. Just what type of players get offered for those picks I wonder. If I was Geelong and I could get a player who was a very early pick originally in a role they normally can get hold of for a pick this year and maybe next then Id consider trading ( with AFL approval). What would it take to get 2mp for example.

Every club will know the value of this draft.. and I cant see anyone trading R1 picks for the likes of (in Geelong terms) a Murdoch. It will take Duncans and player at or just short of A level talent. ..and therefore Id say it only clubs with a view beyond the immediate that will trade players of that value.

Put it this way who on the Pies list would you trade for an extra R1 pick?

Jamie Elliott if he still has value at years end. Collingwood have too many small marking forwards with Elliott and Fasolo both playing like key forwards. More ground level players are needed for better balance up front.

A second possible may be Tom Langdon. Again it's looking for that replication. Maybe another similar type is traded and Langdon is retained, but with the development of Crisp down back last year, Murray looking good, Howe probably Collingwood's best in 2017, Scharenberg looking highly developable, Maynard. There are enough numbers where a Langdon could also be offered, and with Howe and Scharenberg both very strong as intercept marks, three of the same type aren't needed.

If I was after pick 1 (Collingwood lacking a key forward likely would target Lukosius), I'd personally offer Pendlebury +. Maybe Pendlebury + the clubs first round pick gets it done depending on which club has that top pick and where Collingwood enter the draft. Collingwood probably wouldn't, clubs don't trade their captains and best players, but knowing Collingwood's history with players once they hit 30, my view is it's within the clubs best interests.

 

[Pykie]

Jamie Elliott if he still has value at years end. Collingwood have too many small marking forwards with Elliott and Fasolo both playing like key forwards. More ground level players are needed for better balance up front.

A second possible may be Tom Langdon. Again it's looking for that replication. Maybe another similar type is traded and Langdon is retained, but with the development of Crisp down back last year, Murray looking good, Howe probably Collingwood's best in 2017, Scharenberg looking highly developable, Maynard. There are enough numbers where a Langdon could also be offered, and with Howe and Scharenberg both very strong as intercept marks, three of the same type aren't needed.

If I was after pick 1 (Collingwood lacking a key forward likely would target Lukosius), I'd personally offer Pendlebury +. Maybe Pendlebury + the clubs first round pick gets it done depending on which club has that top pick and where Collingwood enter the draft. Collingwood probably wouldn't, clubs don't trade their captains and best players, but knowing Collingwood's history with players once they hit 30, my view is it's within the clubs best interests.

Collingwood's issue is the same as every club that might be below it. They will be rebuilding, they will have no interest in a player that will be 31 by the time next season rolls around, especially for the #1 draft pick in whats touted as the strongest draft in a decade. If Pendlebury moves, it would be a in a Mitchell, Hodge-esque deal' i.e a mid second rounder at the earliest.

Is North, Carlton, Brisbane or Gold Coast (realistically) going to offer the #1 pick for Pendlebury and say pick #6? Whats the point?

The only way Collingwood gets the #1 draft pick if they finish in a similar position to 18', is by packaging their 2019 first round pick in with their 2018.


Given the strength of the 2018 draft and the amazing prospect that is Lukosious, I think there will be some fairly unique deals being offered to those clubs that hold 1 of the top 2-3 picks.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Collingwood's issue is the same as every club that might be below it. They will be rebuilding, they will have no interest in a player that will be 31 by the time next season rolls around, especially for the #1 draft pick in whats touted as the strongest draft in a decade. If Pendlebury moves, it would be a in a Mitchell, Hodge-esque deal' i.e a mid second rounder at the earliest.

Is North, Carlton, Brisbane or Gold Coast (realistically) going to offer the #1 pick for Pendlebury and say pick #6? Whats the point?

The only way Collingwood gets the #1 draft pick if they finish in a similar position to 18', is by packaging their 2019 first round pick in with their 2018.


Given the strength of the 2018 draft and the amazing prospect that is Lukosious, I think there will be some fairly unique deals being offered to those clubs that hold 1 of the top 2-3 picks.

You are right that who ever had pick 1 won't want pendles but please he isn't worth a pick around 30..

More likely he is traded to a mid to high table team for there first which is offered with the pies first ect

 

[Pieeyeinthesky]

Some dates for 2018 U18 Academy Series are up on U18 Championships board. Kicks off with a triple header April 14 in Blacktown.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

Collingwood's issue is the same as every club that might be below it. They will be rebuilding, they will have no interest in a player that will be 31 by the time next season rolls around, especially for the #1 draft pick in whats touted as the strongest draft in a decade. If Pendlebury moves, it would be a in a Mitchell, Hodge-esque deal' i.e a mid second rounder at the earliest.

Is North, Carlton, Brisbane or Gold Coast (realistically) going to offer the #1 pick for Pendlebury and say pick #6? Whats the point?

The only way Collingwood gets the #1 draft pick if they finish in a similar position to 18', is by packaging their 2019 first round pick in with their 2018.


Given the strength of the 2018 draft and the amazing prospect that is Lukosious, I think there will be some fairly unique deals being offered to those clubs that hold 1 of the top 2-3 picks.

You seem to make the assumption that Pendlebury would be a one year rental as Mitchell and Hodge both were for WCE and Bris respectively.

Should a 30 year old Pendlebury go better and have more football to play than a 34 year old Mitchell or a 33 year old Hodge? Who is to say Pendlebury doesn't have another five years left after this year? Particularly with his game is predicated on skill rather than athleticism.

The other element is, in assessing the trades of Mitchell and Hodge. Mitchell had asked for the trade to West Coast with a view to join their coaching team (Hawthorn agree to this) and Hodge was asked to retire - until he reconsidered and took the opportunity with Brisbane. Those are not circumstances where anyone would believe Hawthorn got full value back for either player.

As a further observation. Clubs at the trade table consistently do a poor job evaluating the worth of veterans. It should be noted the players (smartly) voted Luke Hodge as the player who will have the greatest impact on their new club in 2018. With the addition of Hodge, Brisbane's young players are likely to take a meaningful stride forward, whereas without him, they'd struggle to develop. Quality veterans are the most essential element of the list building process in relation to young player development. Without it, it seldom happens and you see clubs go in circles taking early picks without going anywhere - see Gold Coast, Melbourne pre-Roos, Richmond before they started trading picks for established players.

 

[Knightmare]

Some dates for 2018 U18 Academy Series are up on U18 Championships board. Kicks off with a triple header April 14 in Blacktown.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't know about others, but I found it disappointing how little there was on the series last year. No game tapes or stats available to the public. No games in Victoria to get along to. It's low key, but I'd like to see the accessibility rise. Particularly with a better group of div 2 prospects this year.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

You seem to make the assumption that Pendlebury would be a one year rental as Mitchell and Hodge both were for WCE and Bris respectively.

Should a 30 year old Pendlebury go better and have more football to play than a 34 year old Mitchell or a 33 year old Hodge? Who is to say Pendlebury doesn't have another five years left after this year? Particularly with his game is predicated on skill rather than athleticism.

Deledio is perhaps the better comparison - went for picks 15 and 52 in the end, or the points equivalent of pick ten-and-a-half.

 

[briztoon]

Deledio is perhaps the better comparison - went for picks 15 and 52 in the end, or the points equivalent of pick ten-and-a-half.

Not having a go mate, but I hate the idea of "the points equivalent of...".

Yeah, but it wasn't pick 10, it was a combination of lower picks. 9 times out of 10, I'm gonna say give me 10, not multiple lower picks that add up tp the same points value.

 

[Pieeyeinthesky]

I don't know about others, but I found it disappointing how little there was on the series last year. No game tapes or stats available to the public. No games in Victoria to get along to. It's low key, but I'd like to see the accessibility rise. Particularly with a better group of div 2 prospects this year.

Ditto and I’m sure parents of players would appreciate this as well. Be near impossible to travel to all games. Live streaming is fairly easy to do these days.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HedgeFund]

We saw in 2001 that trade of pick 1 with Fremantle offering Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin. There will be similar attempts likely this year, not that the bottom sides are necessarily going to go for such offers. But it's unusual to see moves like this with good players give up for a pick (unknown quantity).

Er-um.....slight correction.

HAWTHORN offered Croad/McPharlin to silly Fremantle for picks 1, 20 and 36.

We used 1 for Luke Hodge and 36 on Sam Mitchell, but stuffed up pick 20 on Daniel Elstone.

Given Croad came back to us two years later for pick 10 (which Freo used on Ryley Dunn?), I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say we got the good end of the deal?

 

[Knightmare]

Er-um.....slight correction.

HAWTHORN offered Croad/McPharlin to silly Fremantle for picks 1, 20 and 36.

We used 1 for Luke Hodge and 36 on Sam Mitchell, but stuffed up pick 20 on Daniel Elstone.

Given Croad came back to us two years later for pick 10 (which Freo used on Ryley Dunn?), I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say we got the good end of the deal?

I'm well aware of the full trade details and felt no need to state them, with my point being the quality of pieces needed in order to acquire pick 1 in a similarly regarded draft.

 

[HedgeFund]

I'm well aware of the full trade details and felt no need to state them, with my point being the quality of pieces needed in order to acquire pick 1 in a similarly regarded draft.

You said Fremantle offered Croad/McPharlin. In actual fact they accepted those players. 180 degrees the opposite.

I was simply correcting an obvious error and giving the full details. Croad/McPharlin for JUST pick 1 seems stupid. Throw in those two further picks (one which eventually netted Mitchell) and it makes a bit more sense.

 

[theGav56]

Er-um.....slight correction.

HAWTHORN offered Croad/McPharlin to silly Fremantle for picks 1, 20 and 36.

We used 1 for Luke Hodge and 36 on Sam Mitchell, but stuffed up pick 20 on Daniel Elstone.

Given Croad came back to us two years later for pick 10 (which Freo used on Ryley Dunn?), I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say we got the good end of the deal?

You certainly did. But a couple of anomalies immediately become apparent. Hawthorn preferred Elstone to Mitchell, highlighting the unpredictability of drafted players, especially outside the high end of the draft. Once back to you Croad became an AA and Premiership player, highlighting that he quite likely was indeed worth the trade, and but Fremantle managed him poorly. In fact the legend is that Connolly was part of the Hawthorn group who wanted to trade Croad, and then became part of the Fremantle group who had him, and was determined to play him as a forward.

Purely on the surface, Croad (pick 3) and MacPharlin (pick 10) are worth 1, 20 and 36 imo. I certainly wouldn't trade those two players for less, and especially given that they are both KPPs with some development in the AFL behind them.

 

[Turbocat]

Jamie Elliott if he still has value at years end. Collingwood have too many small marking forwards with Elliott and Fasolo both playing like key forwards. More ground level players are needed for better balance up front.

A second possible may be Tom Langdon. Again it's looking for that replication. Maybe another similar type is traded and Langdon is retained, but with the development of Crisp down back last year, Murray looking good, Howe probably Collingwood's best in 2017, Scharenberg looking highly developable, Maynard. There are enough numbers where a Langdon could also be offered, and with Howe and Scharenberg both very strong as intercept marks, three of the same type aren't needed.

If I was after pick 1 (Collingwood lacking a key forward likely would target Lukosius), I'd personally offer Pendlebury +. Maybe Pendlebury + the clubs first round pick gets it done depending on which club has that top pick and where Collingwood enter the draft. Collingwood probably wouldn't, clubs don't trade their captains and best players, but knowing Collingwood's history with players once they hit 30, my view is it's within the clubs best interests.

One can see by the reaction that it will be difficult to get agreement on what a reasonable deal would be.

And reading that next year the portability FA deal allows a player to retain their FA when moving ... to give up a #1 pick for Pendles when then in two years time he can walk as a UFA would make that deal difficult for mine. While I agree the leadership players like him can bring is undervalued.. id not be trading a #1 pick.. especially this year.. for anything less than a player A grade player that has several years of their best footy to be played. The clubs down the bottom will value those picks while rebuilding and I doubt they will trade them for anything short of ludicrous compensation.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi Knightmare, Do you have any information on the Wild brothers ? apparently they'll be eligible for CFC Academy this year , the word is they're quite talented. Would appreciate your insights, can they be selected in this year's draft?
Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, Do you have any information on the Wild brothers ? apparently they'll be eligible for CFC Academy this year , the word is they're quite talented. Would appreciate your insights, can they be selected in this year's draft?
Thanks

Mitchell Wild played the 6 TAC Cup games for Northern last year and is eligible this year. Cameron being another year away is still a further year off. They're the sons of Collingwood's Jason Wild.

Mitchell I probably saw at some point last year (181cm, 74kg), but nothing memorable. He's still a developing player who will be looking to break through and play strong footy this year.

 

[HedgeFund]

Hi Knightmare, Do you have any information on the Wild brothers ? apparently they'll be eligible for CFC Academy this year , the word is they're quite talented. Would appreciate your insights, can they be selected in this year's draft?
Thanks

Why would they be eligible to go to CFC if they’re already playing TAC? Are they indigenous?

If one is a TAC top ager - he’d already have been nominated for the Carlton NGA wouldn’t he?

Just because you live in Carlton’s geographical region doesn’t automatically mean you’re in their Academy....

 

[eDPS]

Mitchell Wild played the 6 TAC Cup games for Northern last year and is eligible this year. Cameron being another year away is still a further year off. They're the sons of Collingwood's Jason Wild.

Mitchell I probably saw at some point last year (181cm, 74kg), but nothing memorable. He's still a developing player who will be looking to break through and play strong footy this year.

bmaurizio just a bit more on Mitchell he played mostly as a small forward in the games i saw last year, he showed pretty good speed and agility he is pretty clean and i though looked really good by hand. Would be intrigued to see if he is used as a midfielder this year because his skill set would suit it.

 

[Knightmare]

Why would they be eligible to go to CFC if they’re already playing TAC? Are they indigenous?

If one is a TAC top ager - he’d already have been nominated for the Carlton NGA wouldn’t he?

Just because you live in Carlton’s geographical region doesn’t automatically mean you’re in their Academy....

Wild played 70 games for Collingwood. Not as father son.

 

[HedgeFund]

Wild played 70 games for Collingwood. Not as father son.

Yep - I though the OP was talking about Carlton anyhow. Not sure how they get a crack at Wild any way other than through normal drafting.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Are they indigenous?

Apparently.

 

[bmaurizio]

bmaurizio just a bit more on Mitchell he played mostly as a small forward in the games i saw last year, he showed pretty good speed and agility he is pretty clean and i though looked really good by hand. Would be intrigued to see if he is used as a midfielder this year because his skill set would suit it.

Thanks D_P_S, much appreciated, our midfield can certainly do with more support. Do you have you any info on Cameron? I've heard that he may be the better of the two brothers.

 

[bmaurizio]

Mitchell Wild played the 6 TAC Cup games for Northern last year and is eligible this year. Cameron being another year away is still a further year off. They're the sons of Collingwood's Jason Wild.

Mitchell I probably saw at some point last year (181cm, 74kg), but nothing memorable. He's still a developing player who will be looking to break through and play strong footy this year.

Appreciate the insight try to follow the progress. Thanks

 

[HedgeFund]

Apparently.

Just found the AFL list and yep - Wild is in the CFC Indigenous/Next generation Academy. Great stuff. Hope he comes along nicely and gets a crack at getting on their senior list.

 

[borderbarry]

How is Wild eligible for CFC Indigenous/New Generation Academy? What is his Collingwood connection if his father only played 70 games for Collingwood?