Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[RUNVS]

Blakey is someone who could play anywhere. He can play forward (key or medium), could go on a wing and probably looked at his best during the u18 champs when he started at stoppages and won first possession.

Sydney probably will place Blakey where he is most needed. He might be viewed I'll speculate as something like a Sam Reid successor as more a CHF.

He's a definitely first round pick, could attract a top 5 bid. It would be a shock to see no one inside the top 10 bid on him. He's a clear top 7/8 talent this year.

This is just a guess but I think the Swans will play him as a midfielder in the first few years, at least until his body fills out. He would be a very awkward size to stop in the midfield and because he has the ability to play there it makes sense to play him in the midfield rather than keeping him in the forward line when he isn't quite ready for that position.

 

[Knightmare]

This is just a guess but I think the Swans will play him as a midfielder in the first few years, at least until his body fills out. He would be a very awkward size to stop in the midfield and because he has the ability to play there it makes sense to play him in the midfield rather than keeping him in the forward line when he isn't quite ready for that position.

He's physically immature so I'm not expecting regular appearances during the first couple of seasons.

Probably not a bad call re. midfield minutes. I'm yet to decide whether that should be his main go, or whether he should pinch-hit through there. Certainly if quiet, it's a great way to involve him, and he can really give you a different look when he runs through there.

 

[harrisendblue]

How would quantify that statement exactly?

This just sounds like the undeserved arrogance of Carlton that has contributed to them being in this position continually for 15 years and counting.

Huge latent supporter base and per capita very high social media interactions (currently). Why do you think the afl gave us so many Friday night games? Like I said I understand why you diss it but that is just the way it is.

Now this will be my last response to you on this topic because its off topic.

 

[harrisendblue]

Nah. Mining more revenue from the same few suburbs in one town is last century thinking.

It'd be much better for the game to lose a club like Carlton, and have a strong GWS.

The AFL wants 4 particular Melbourne suburbs (Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Richmond) doing well because it helps its bottom line and ultimately all clubs. Might be last century thinking and doesn't suit your small town mentality but that's just the way it is - get used to it.

Now this my last response to you on this because its off topic.

 

[harrisendblue]

You have a plan. You're following a plan. Was part of that plan always to get a charity priority pick?

There are no exceptional circumstances or anything unexpected about where Carlton is. It is where they planned for.

They are following a plan however they didn't expect to only win 2 games this year. If they don't win any more then I expect they will apply though personally im not fussed either way if its granted.

 

[Bonanza15]

Hey guys, was just wondering where you guys think Bailey Scott is likely to go in the draft and what yous think of him?

 

[pugsville]

KM - Thomas Jok playing in the collingwood VFL as 23rtd man, know anything? Is he a rookie chance this year? Got some impressive moves at times but still looks quite raw not a rounded game. patchy. Just interested if you have opinion/information?

 

[Cleric]

The AFL wants 4 particular Melbourne suburbs (Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Richmond) doing well because it helps its bottom line and ultimately all clubs. Might be last century thinking and doesn't suit your small town mentality but that's just the way it is - get used to it.

Now this my last response to you on this because its off topic.

Nah, the AFL want NSW and Qld to do well. Far more revenue potential to come out of there than Carlton can offer.

 

[briztoon]

Nah, the AFL want NSW and Qld to do well. Far more revenue potential to come out of there than Carlton can offer.

You wouldn’t know it.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey guys, was just wondering where you guys think Bailey Scott is likely to go in the draft and what yous think of him?

Second round onwards. Good outside mid - runs all day, clean at ground level, fairly good skills, accumulator. Not overly impactful, but could be a component to a team.

KM - Thomas Jok playing in the collingwood VFL as 23rtd man, know anything? Is he a rookie chance this year? Got some impressive moves at times but still looks quite raw not a rounded game. patchy. Just interested if you have opinion/information?

He played for Dandenong in the TAC Cup a few years ago now. Wasn't a standout albeit he had his moments.

I don't see him in the mix for selection. Good athlete and has some tricks but too many holes in his game at this stage and doesn't look a threat be a best 22 player at AFL level unless he improves dramatically.

One I'd be interested with another year in the VFL though whether he can make some more strides.

 

[Yoda_]

Any other stingrays guys a chance outside the big 4 there old mate? (obviously talking about Williams, Bowman, Foot, forgetting one i think).

Cottrell? Frawley been playing well. Nanscowen appears to be rated highly

 

[eDPS]

Any other stingrays guys a chance outside the big 4 there old mate? (obviously talking about Williams, Bowman, Foot, forgetting one i think).

Cottrell? Frawley been playing well. Nanscowen appears to be rated highly

I was at the Dandenong game today, wouldn’t say anyone really enhanced their stocks. Finlay Bayne was solid, the talls had a shocker in the windy conditions. Foot was quiet as was Hamill.

 

[Knightmare]

Any other stingrays guys a chance outside the big 4 there old mate? (obviously talking about Williams, Bowman, Foot, forgetting one i think).

Cottrell? Frawley been playing well. Nanscowen appears to be rated highly

The draft combine list is generally the best guide for those on draft radars.

Bedford, Bowman, Foot, Hamill and Williams are Dandenong's five.

A flat out shock Sam Fletcher isn't on the list. He's inside my top 25 prospects and is neck and neck for mine with Williams as Dandenong's best player. Mitch Riordan many would also have on their lists.

Corey Ellison I like a lot as a medium marking forward. In Victoria, there may not be a stronger overhead mark of this years prospects. Only Hugo Munn interstate is probably a stronger grab.

Jai Nanscawen, Campbell Hustwaite, Jamie Plumridge, Jake Frawley, Stephen Cumming, Bailey Schmidt, Matthew Cottrell and Jai Taylor are others good enough to continue their footy at least at VFL level if not genuine draft considerations.

Overall, it's a pretty even group. None I'd use a top 15 pick on, but a lot I'd be thinking late/rookie should be discussed.

 

[Michael Jezz]

I don't know what the relative size of the Carlton recruiting team is compared to other clubs. If they're smaller, they need to increase in size. If they're of normal or above average size, they need to get smarter. It's not the clubs greatest problem, but it's certainly one of the areas needing addressing.

In terms of talent ID, the most significant flaw I've noted (under the new recruiting department as that's what's relevant to analyse at this time) is poor ID of talls - specifically in terms of overrating a lot of them.

One interesting dynamic to be aware of is those bottom teams have lots of opportunities to add good talls while those teams that finish up the very top every year don't get that opportunity. That's why you see Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Richmond and West Coast without those quality of talls you get on Carlton, Brisbane, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS who have had those years down the bottom with all those very early picks.

When those bottom clubs have those early picks, they can be a lot more selective with selecting the very best KPPs and they can take the cream of the crop and prioritise in the recruitment of other types with the rest of their picks.

Drafting the likes Glass-McCasker as a rookie in 2015, Silvagni as a father-son, Kerr and Macreadie late, Alex Silvagni as a rookie in 2016, Tom De Koning at 30 last year. It's just not understanding your list and your draft position/s. McKay as with De Koning last year was taken too high with their combination of statistics and attributes not appropriate for where they were taken.

Opposition talent ID also hasn't impressed me. A lot of depth guys added with Matthew Kennedy that only trade piece I really like the addition of under the new recruiting department. It's been a lot of established players going (under the former and present team) and not a lot of quality added. I also don't love the GWS scatter gun approach. Absolutely get the guys who will be clear best 22 players, but the big packages with a lot of types who haven't been that standard for GWS have been poor recruiting decisions.



Medium forward. Strongly built and able marking target. Eligible this year. Will be interesting once the APS Football season concludes as to whether he'll earn some games for Oakleigh.

Knightmare. I really appreciate the effort you put in to this thread but I and I suspect most Carlton supporters, find your view on Carlton's talls lacking any foundation in fact.
Mackay - a little loose mentally but compare his stats after 11 games with any other young KPF. Note his 3rd quarter last night
Kerr- Pick 70 odd. Tracking just fine. Low risk option. If he makes it it is a bonus
DeKonig- What VFL games have you been watching because he had a block of 5 games before injury where he clunked marks?
Macreadie- injured but just solid
Silvagni- may struggle due to lack of pace....but then again he could be groomed for a midfield spot. Is he going to be a fail if he plays 100 games at pick 60?
Curnow- enough said
Marchbank- Great trade.
I think you miss Silvagni's method in taking the hard road to success by recruiting talls first, who take 5 years to develop. You along with most of the football community are judging this rebuild in year 3 instead of year 6

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare. I really appreciate the effort you put in to this thread but I and I suspect most Carlton supporters, find your view on Carlton's talls lacking any foundation in fact.
Mackay - a little loose mentally but compare his stats after 11 games with any other young KPF. Note his 3rd quarter last night
Kerr- Pick 70 odd. Tracking just fine. Low risk option. If he makes it it is a bonus
DeKonig- What VFL games have you been watching because he had a block of 5 games before injury where he clunked marks?
Macreadie- injured but just solid
Silvagni- may struggle due to lack of pace....but then again he could be groomed for a midfield spot. Is he going to be a fail if he plays 100 games at pick 60?
Curnow- enough said
Marchbank- Great trade.
I think you miss Silvagni's method in taking the hard road to success by recruiting talls first, who take 5 years to develop. You along with most of the football community are judging this rebuild in year 3 instead of year 6

Silvagni's method of taking too many kpps is poor list management. As a bottom team most years, Carlton continue to get the opportunity to get the cream of the crop. When you're in that position, get your Weitering's and Lukosius' up the top end and fill your other needs with the other selections and ignore the lesser kpps.

It is worth noting the clubs down the bottom of the ladder how many kpps they have and how healthy their kpp situations are. Carlton, Brisbane, GWS getting all those early picks and taking so many - all three clubs have had an incredible accumulation of young kpps. Then consider those teams who have been up the top every year - Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney. They lack young kpps of quality because they haven't had those early picks.

Selection of KPPs is about quality, not quantity. Taking so many is a waste of list positions. It's about finding elite players by position, otherwise you may as well go with more flexible mid-size players. If they're not elite, go to the state leagues and get someone or look to opposition lists are veteran kpps who still have game and aren't valued by their current team. That's the correct way to recruit kpps.

Responding to those you speak of from Carlton directly:

McKay is quick and can take an overhead mark but doesn't find enough of it, doesn't take enough marks, has poor endurance, has unclear ruck capabilities and doesn't kick enough goals. He's not AFL quality at this point and is still an early stages developing player. He has a chance to make it, but he could go either way and is not someone I would bet on with confidence.

Kerr is an able mark but is likely in a couple of years time to be a state leaguer not having any other point of difference.

De Koning will take the odd mark but as a junior dropped more than he took. It's heart in mouth stuff watching in attempt to mark the ball. A confidence player who can get hot once or twice a year as a forward and does little the rest of the time. Best chance to make it is probably as a mobile ruckman, and I don't see him as more than a depth player there either.

Macreadie is an able stopper but offers no rebound and is not much of an intercepter.

Silvagni is undersized and shot of all confidence. It's hard to identify a position he'll thrive in at this stage.

Marchbank can intercept to an elite standard but his kicking is atrocious and 1v1 he is also exceedingly poor. He probably needs to like with Plowman play more on medium forwards rather than kpps to be a long term player and work hard on his kicking while he's at it.

--
Curnow and Weitering are the two to build around. Weitering can be the best key defender in the competition and Curnow can be one of the elite if he isn't already. It's a big two and everyone else is a questionmark at this stage.

 

[Mego Red]

The AFL wants 4 particular Melbourne suburbs (Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Richmond) doing well because it helps its bottom line and ultimately all clubs. Might be last century thinking and doesn't suit your small town mentality but that's just the way it is - get used to it.

Now this my last response to you on this because its off topic.

Collingwood is the powerful "north of the city" club. Carlton is nothing like that. They have a few rusted on supporters they attracted during the brown paper bag days, but that's a long time ago.

Again - the league needs multiple successful clubs in Sydney and SE Qld a LOT more than they need the sixth best Victorian club.

There's only so much money to be mined out of suburban Melbourne. It's why the VFL was going broke.

 

[Mego Red]

You wouldn’t know it.

Fair call.

 

[Mego Red]

How's that grand final hangover going? The most pressure any AFL player could face is on a bus full of lunatics on a pre season camp!!

Wow. What triggered you? You should go have some quiet time, away from all this pressure.

 

[footylover18]

Knightmare. I really appreciate the effort you put in to this thread but I and I suspect most Carlton supporters, find your view on Carlton's talls lacking any foundation in fact.
Mackay - a little loose mentally but compare his stats after 11 games with any other young KPF. Note his 3rd quarter last night
Kerr- Pick 70 odd. Tracking just fine. Low risk option. If he makes it it is a bonus
DeKonig- What VFL games have you been watching because he had a block of 5 games before injury where he clunked marks?
Macreadie- injured but just solid
Silvagni- may struggle due to lack of pace....but then again he could be groomed for a midfield spot. Is he going to be a fail if he plays 100 games at pick 60?
Curnow- enough said
Marchbank- Great trade.
I think you miss Silvagni's method in taking the hard road to success by recruiting talls first, who take 5 years to develop. You along with most of the football community are judging this rebuild in year 3 instead of year 6

Curnow-STUD no question

Mackay-wait and see. i think he'll turn out to be solid, perhaps good.

Silvagni-genuine spud.

Marchbank-agree, great trade.

 

[harrisendblue]

Silvagni's method of taking too many kpps is poor list management. As a bottom team most years, Carlton continue to get the opportunity to get the cream of the crop. When you're in that position, get your Weitering's and Lukosius' up the top end and fill your other needs with the other selections and ignore the lesser kpps.

It is worth noting the clubs down the bottom of the ladder how many kpps they have and how healthy their kpp situations are. Carlton, Brisbane, GWS getting all those early picks and taking so many - all three clubs have had an incredible accumulation of young kpps. Then consider those teams who have been up the top every year - Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney. They lack young kpps of quality because they haven't had those early picks.

Selection of KPPs is about quality, not quantity. Taking so many is a waste of list positions. It's about finding elite players by position, otherwise you may as well go with more flexible mid-size players. If they're not elite, go to the state leagues and get someone or look to opposition lists are veteran kpps who still have game and aren't valued by their current team. That's the correct way to recruit kpps.

Responding to those you speak of from Carlton directly:

McKay is quick and can take an overhead mark but doesn't find enough of it, doesn't take enough marks, has poor endurance, has unclear ruck capabilities and doesn't kick enough goals. He's not AFL quality at this point and is still an early stages developing player. He has a chance to make it, but he could go either way and is not someone I would bet on with confidence.

Kerr is an able mark but is likely in a couple of years time to be a state leaguer not having any other point of difference.

De Koning will take the odd mark but as a junior dropped more than he took. It's heart in mouth stuff watching in attempt to mark the ball. A confidence player who can get hot once or twice a year as a forward and does little the rest of the time. Best chance to make it is probably as a mobile ruckman, and I don't see him as more than a depth player there either.

Macreadie is an able stopper but offers no rebound and is not much of an intercepter.

Silvagni is undersized and shot of all confidence. It's hard to identify a position he'll thrive in at this stage.

Marchbank can intercept to an elite standard but his kicking is atrocious and 1v1 he is also exceedingly poor. He probably needs to like with Plowman play more on medium forwards rather than kpps to be a long term player and work hard on his kicking while he's at it.

--
Curnow and Weitering are the two to build around. Weitering can be the best key defender in the competition and Curnow can be one of the elite if he isn't already. It's a big two and everyone else is a questionmark at this stage.

I think the GWS strategy is the template when building a list actually. They have built a spine and because they have plenty traded out for picks. We havent had the luxury of so many first rd picks so have therfore needed to use lower picks.

All of Cats, Swans and Hawks have a questionable future 2-3 years in my opinion and they have used your preferred recruiting model.

As someone who watches Mckay every week your only correct regarding his endurance. This is a work in progress and was the reason he hasn't played more games. His marking is actually very good and he will take more as his strength improves. He actually has reasonable numbers for some of his age and experience - you do realise that in the modern game the majority of KPF's don't take many marks. His actual ruck work is promising but the question will be his endurance and if he can become a ruck /forward. Finally his goal to game ratio when playing in a side that kicks so few of them is excellent. Do yourself a favour and watch him play rather than relying on your memory of his as a junior.

Kerr (pick 65) and Silvagni (pick 53) cost nothing and Jack is not a KPP. Third tall or inside midfielder. His confidence has improved during the last two months so gain I think you should actually watch him play.

Kerr I tend to agree because whilst he marks well his kicking for goal is unreliable which could be caused by endurance issues. He again has time on his side being very young.

TDK again your judging on junior form. His marking is good currently and improving. Kids especially tall's need time and yes I think he will end being a forward ruckman.

Macreadie (pick 47) is a great reader of the play, good mark and has also been cruelled by injury. Can he become a lockdown defender I hope so because that becomes his spot. Can he become a third tall forward also a possibility because of his marking.

Marchbank has areas to improve on yes. The good thing he is improving however has suffered from injuries. He will improve in all aspects of his play when the pre seasons are completed and the team improves.

My take on our approach going forward now is that we focus on best available with an emphasis on mids & mediums. I would personally add a young developing ruckman. IMO with anti congestion rules they will become more important. We could utilise your strategy from this year on but clearly not when you commence a full rebuild.

You need to understand some things:

• KPP need to time to develop.
• Whilst picking a mature ager from other list and leagues can uncover good players the majority don't make it. Its even harder to get one of those and put them into a poor side and expect them to have a Lynden Dunn like year.
• Using low picks on developing talls is a legitimate tactic because you get them in the AFL environment earlier and hasten their development - you may strike it lucky and get one to really become super and therefore you've had a draft win.
• Players do change their spots from their junior years and do improve.

 

[peninsulawatch]

The draft combine list is generally the best guide for those on draft radars.

Bedford, Bowman, Foot, Hamill and Williams are Dandenong's five.

A flat out shock Sam Fletcher isn't on the list. He's inside my top 25 prospects and is neck and neck for mine with Williams as Dandenong's best player. Mitch Riordan many would also have on their lists.

Corey Ellison I like a lot as a medium marking forward. In Victoria, there may not be a stronger overhead mark of this years prospects. Only Hugo Munn interstate is probably a stronger grab.

Jai Nanscawen, Campbell Hustwaite, Jamie Plumridge, Jake Frawley, Stephen Cumming, Bailey Schmidt, Matthew Cottrell and Jai Taylor are others good enough to continue their footy at least at VFL level if not genuine draft considerations.

Overall, it's a pretty even group. None I'd use a top 15 pick on, but a lot I'd be thinking late/rookie should be discussed.

Sam Fletcher had his own football in yesterday's first half, if not for injury last year I would be confident in saying his stocks would be the equivalent, if not higher than Bowman / Williams.
I am not sold on Hamill, and Foot needs to work defensively more. Jai Taylor starting to hit the scoreboard, cleans up his field kicking a touch then he is a strong chance for a late pick. Worpol's efficiency was questioned last year in the same light.

Caldor are a very well coached team and Dandenong where outcoached significantly for majority of the game yesterday.

 

[bl4ke]

Hi Knightmare keen to hear your thoughts on a bloke that the Eagles seem likely to end up with, Jarrod Cameron. Hearing he is likely a late/rookie pick - in your opinion does he have the traits to be the player his brother is?

 

[blueiris]

Brent Harvey today on Sen said he believes the Suns are into both King brothers when Lynch leaves that leaves Luko or Walsh at pick 4 could you really see the Suns drafting both King twins would've thought Luko would suit them better if he was available

 

[Knightmare]

I think the GWS strategy is the template when building a list actually. Thye have taken multiple talls and then traded out some to get high picks. We havent had the luxury of so many first rd picks so have therfore needed to use lower picks.

As someone who watches Mckay every week your only correct regarding his endurance. This is a work in progress and was the reason he hasn't played more games. His marking is actually very good and he will take more as his strength improves. He actually has reasonable numbers for some of his age and experience - you do realise that in the modern game the majority of KPF's don't take many marks. His actual ruck work is promising but the question will be his endurance and if he can become a ruck /forward.




gamesguysone in hig No issue with the apporachLions the same used them Cant agree with you KM especially

GWS' list management is an interesting case study.

They were smart going out and getting young, high quality established players who can be with them long term. In addition, they also made sure to get a few veteran leaders and cranked up that number after a few more years which saw their greatest acceleration in improvement. Mumford is a great example of a list management decision done right. Same with Shaw. Mumford through the ruck was such a presence that he makes everyone stand taller. Shaw down back I also feel for his leadership has been big for the development of that back half. You need those kinds of guys to develop youth and GWS to their credit got those guys in the door.

What I didn't love was their draft selections and draft strategy. I don't have the time to go through them all one by one with my thoughts of the time + now. But to generalise, with those top 10 picks, they needed to get the best kpps and ball winning mids. That's where the value is inside the top 10 generally. I found a lot of low production (outside) types and general forwards/defenders were taken too early and an unnecessary number of KPPs were taken after 10 over the years when they weren't the best availables and didn't look like they'd make GWS' best 22. GWS could have traded some of their picks on for established players who fill their remaining list to improve their best 22. Or identified those general forwards and general defenders with later/rookie choices. They also haven't taken the time to utilise their rookie list all that well and have wasted opportunities when they could have taken some guys - whether it's mature agers or others who could have been seen as having some role player potential to compliment their core pieces.

 

[TallyHawk]

Hi Knightmare, I haven't been to that many Bushies games this year but what do you think of Zane Barzen? Seems a similar type to Riley Collier Dawkins as a 193cm mid/forward. There are a lot of comments on him having x-factor but needing to get more run in his legs.

The other one I'm interested in is Tyrone Hayes seems a very talented player that appears to be flying under the radar. Is he a late pick or rookie draft selection?


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