Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[footylover18]

What contributes to a successful season, from your examples, in order of priority:

1. Player development - make your players improve more than the other teams
2. Talent identification - select / recruit talent
3. Injury / luck - manage that list
4. Match day coaching - pull levers on match day.

You can pick all the supposed guns you want in the world, but if your coaching staff can develop them properly, you’re never going to succeed.

100%.

Which is why giving the bad teams a priority pick makes no sense. These teams typically have had plenty of top picks and they still are bad, they would get a far great ROI on investing in player development and talent identification rather than pissing an extra pick up the wall.

I think the best thing you can do is invest in a great team of assistant coaches. Richmond were nowhere 18 months ago, i refuse to believe Hardwick became some Coaching mastermind over the course of one summer. I believe the assistants they brought in had a profound impact on the style of play and the way the team sets up in games etc.

 

[footylover18]

I used to think the Crows were just amazing drafters. But no team can get it right all the time via the draft. Its clear that they arent just good at identifying talent but they are amazing at developing it.

Lose Bock. Develop Phil Davis.
Lose Davis. Develop Talia.
Develop Lever.
Lose Lever. Develop Doedee.

that's not just a run of good fortune at the draft. that is incredible player development.

 

[HedgeFund]

When reflecting on KMs “interesting theory” on GWS, it may be worthwhile to consider the influence of existing long term club veterans on the playing group in recent premiership sides.

Cats - Enright, Scarlett, Johnson, Chapman, Bartel, Harley, Kelly, Ablett, etc had 8+ years playing at the club prior to/during their golden run

Hawks - obviously Hodge, Lewis, Burgoyne, Gibson, Mitchell, Birchall, Stratton, Roughead.

Swans - McVeigh, Goodes, O’Keefe, Bolton, LRT, Richards, Jack, Malceski.

Dogs - Murphy, Boyd, Morris, Roughead, Dahlhaus, Wood.

Tigers - Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin, Grimes, Edwards, Grigg.

All surviving GWS foundation players are only in their 7th season with the club. Ward just became the club’s first 150th gamer. They have players with experience, but nowhere near as much club experience/investment as the recent flag sides.

 

[footylover18]

I thought it was interesting that KM said that GWS should have been contending from 2014.

ie, the third season of the Shiel, Cameron, Coniglio group. Whitfield's 2nd season.

Whilst players can be very good by their 3rd season, the reality is that it isn't common. Not everyone develops at the pace of Oliver.

Most guys are reaching their peak by their 7th or 8th season. Which, as it turns out, would be the 2018 season for their initial drafted core.

 

[LemmingMaster]

GWS will be at the pointy end of the ladder for the next 10 years, they may have little hiccups along the way, but they should be around the mark long term. That will hopefully gain them a premiership but also a supporter base.
Supporting Carlton and having two young kids, it is very hard to get your kids to support your team.
Long periods of poor results can lose generations of supporters.

GWS will hopefully gain a few generations of supporters with their long term success.

This is also why we need PP and more often to stop generations of supporters going missing from clubs.

 

[Bicks]

Go to a GWV game and you’ll soon find out why. Stats can be deceiving.

That said, Charlie Wilson is having an exceptional year and playing well no matter who the opposition are and is certainly one of the best performing small forwards in the TAC this year. It's a credit to him that he's performing so well given the lack of genuine top end talent around him.

Matty Lloyd missed virtually the first half of the TAC season with injury and since his come back is starting to show the form he produced as an an under ager last year, again credit to him being able to find so much pill with the dearth of talent around him.

It would be interesting to see how they'd go in a team like the Sandy Dragons or Oakleigh Chargers etc where they'd have other class players around them.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

That said, Charlie Wilson is having an exceptional year and playing well no matter who the opposition are and is certainly one of the best performing small forwards in the TAC this year. It's a credit to him that he's performing so well given the lack of genuine top end talent around him.

Matty Lloyd missed virtually the first half of the TAC season with injury and since his come back is starting to show the form he produced as an an under ager last year, again credit to him being able to find so much pill with the dearth of talent around him.

It would be interesting to see how they'd go in a team like the Sandy Dragons or Oakleigh Chargers etc where they'd have other class players around them.

Cheers again Bicks!

I live overseas so don't get to see any games and can only go by the stats listed on the TAC Cup site

There are always gems to be found at the back of the draft and with Saints 2nd to 4th pick being 60 back I am looking at players performing that may be flying under the radar.

These two don't seem to rate currently even though their written stats highlight decent disposal efficiency, tackling pressure, marking ability, goal sense and the capacity to find the pill

How accurate these stats are I have no idea but when you see that Lloyd had 26 kicks last weekend (20 as KE) and 11 handball (9 as HE) and that Wilson kicked 5 from 28 disposals and 12 marks ..... there must be some kind of talent there

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Go to a GWV game and you’ll soon find out why. Stats can be deceiving.

I had to chase the footy to get it back into play twice at Box Hill amongst the small crowd. Ironically that's the same amount of contested possessions Lloyd had.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

That said, Charlie Wilson is having an exceptional year and playing well no matter who the opposition are and is certainly one of the best performing small forwards in the TAC this year. It's a credit to him that he's performing so well given the lack of genuine top end talent around him.

Matty Lloyd missed virtually the first half of the TAC season with injury and since his come back is starting to show the form he produced as an an under ager last year, again credit to him being able to find so much pill with the dearth of talent around him.

It would be interesting to see how they'd go in a team like the Sandy Dragons or Oakleigh Chargers etc where they'd have other class players around them.

Wilson was very good on the weekend.

 

[eDPS]

I had to chase the footy to get it back into play twice at Box Hill amongst the small crowd. Ironically that's the same amount of contested possessions Lloyd had.

Thats pretty impressive from you, Pie 4 Life a late season bolter?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Thats pretty impressive from you, Pie 4 Life a late season bolter?

Davo told me I'm undraftable

 

[eDPS]

Davo told me I'm undraftable

You will get there kid, plenty of the year still to play out.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

You will get there kid, plenty of the year still to play out.

Probably go the way of "Your Mum"... still shattered HedgeFund was off the mark that he didn't get picked up last year.

 

[harrisendblue]

I thought it was interesting that KM said that GWS should have been contending from 2014.

ie, the third season of the Shiel, Cameron, Coniglio group. Whitfield's 2nd season.

Whilst players can be very good by their 3rd season, the reality is that it isn't common. Not everyone develops at the pace of Oliver.

Most guys are reaching their peak by their 7th or 8th season. Which, as it turns out, would be the 2018 season for their initial drafted core.

Under the KM model they would have traded out picks for established players to be contending so its sage to assume they would not have all of those gun kids.

 

[Bicks]

I had to chase the footy to get it back into play twice at Box Hill amongst the small crowd. Ironically that's the same amount of contested possessions Lloyd had.

His brother is an outside player too, hasn't stopped him having an excellent AFL career for the Sydney Swans. What was Matty's handball receive count on the weekend?

 

[footylover18]

Under the KM model they would have traded out picks for established players to be contending so its sage to assume they would not have all of those gun kids.

I dont think we can assume that they couldve traded all those picks for established guns.

 

[harrisendblue]

I dont think we can assume that they couldve traded all those picks for established guns.

Not saying they would trade all the picks for gun players just some and consequently they would not have kept all the kids.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

His brother is an outside player too, hasn't stopped him having an excellent AFL career for the Sydney Swans. What was Matty's handball receive count on the weekend?

Stats say 21 handball receives and he had 37 possessions

 

[HedgeFund]

Stats say 21 handball receives and he had 37 possessions

He had 33 uncontested and 2 contested.

Odd given he actually had 37 touches but that’s what CD reported.

 

[dlanod]

I dont think we can assume that they couldve traded all those picks for established guns.

Given the reticence of clubs to trade established guns for the minidraft picks - arguably a more valuable commodity - I think you nailed it. GWS only managed to recruit players forced out due to culture (Shaw, Griffen) or salary (Mumford, Deledio), and that's more than most clubs get a hold of if you take "homesickness" out of the picture.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

His brother is an outside player too, hasn't stopped him having an excellent AFL career for the Sydney Swans. What was Matty's handball receive count on the weekend?

As the others said, 21 HR and a 2/33 UC/CP count. But it wasn't just the outside work, there were times where he had options, but ignored them much to the frustration of others, to put it nicely.

 

[Bicks]

As the others said, 21 HR and a 2/33 UC/CP count. But it wasn't just the outside work, there were times where he had options, but ignored them much to the frustration of others, to put it nicely.

So you think he'll be undrafted?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

So you think he'll be undrafted?

After watching the weekend, I became more confident he would be. He doesn't really have an elite trait and he is unbelievably outside (20% UC). If you're that outside, you need to be an absolute elite kick, and he isn't. He obviously still has interest, but I wouldn't be drafting him if anyone saw that game live. Very frustrating, put it that way.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

After watching the weekend, I became more confident he would be. He doesn't really have an elite trait and he is unbelievably outside (20% UC). If you're that outside, you need to be an absolute elite kick, and he isn't. He obviously still has interest, but I wouldn't be drafting him if anyone saw that game live. Very frustrating, put it that way.

What about his KE - close to 80% this weekend? Or were these just mainly kicks to advantage and not direct to team mates?

I am intrigued given he is a bigger version of his brother and like his brother can find the ball - might be a bargain after pick 50

 

[Pie 4 Life]

What about his KE - close to 80% this weekend? Or were these just mainly kicks to advantage and not direct to team mates?

I am intrigued given he is a bigger version of his brother and like his brother can find the ball - might be a bargain after pick 50

That is not what I am saying. One example, he was 55 metres out, two teammates were leading into space, he torpedoed it from outside 50 going for goal and it was spoiled across the line. Another example, Charlie Wilson was lining up for goal 40m out going for his fourth - he kicked it btw - and Lloyd ran beside him screaming for the handball. It just wasn't a good look from where I was, and from the torpedo play, two teammates in no uncertain terms questioned his decision making. He is an okay kick, but not elite like you need to be with his outside tendencies. He can make some strange decisions.