Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[MITSUHIRATO]

The key is for Carlton options and with Lukosius it depends on projections.

Carlton don't seem to project him as highly as I do. That's their call.

It will mean happy days for an Adelaide or whoever end up trading for him.

With Gold Coast to receive compensation for Lynch, that Freo pick would move down to 7. I'm a big wrap for Cerra, he may be all things said and done the best in last years draft or close to. Cerra + pick 7 may be around what Carlton ask for if exploring that trade.

Cerra I know going into the draft wanted to stay in Melbourne, not sure of his current position. A no brainer for Fremantle if they can do it for mine.

FWIW, I would take Cerra and #7 in a heartbeat for Pick #1.

I don't think Fremantle fans will be as keen though.

There should still be decent top end talent on the board at Pick #7, add that to what we've seen Cerra produce at AFL level already and that would be a big win IMO.

 

[footylover18]

Having Barlow in for Fiorini in your GC best 22 is quite humorous.

 

[Knightmare]

Having Barlow in for Fiorini in your GC best 22 is quite humorous.

It's a young side needing ball winners and someone who can go in, win it and dish it out by hand.

You see GC smashed every week for disposals and time in possession. Barlow goes some way towards changing that and getting his teammates the ball.

Fiorini remains fringe for mine and needs to earn his place.

FWIW, I would take Cerra and #7 in a heartbeat for Pick #1.

I don't think Fremantle fans will be as keen though.

There should still be decent top end talent on the board at Pick #7, add that to what we've seen Cerra produce at AFL level already and that would be a big win IMO.

I don't consider 7 as being as valuable as you are. Even at 7, you'll have a bid for Blakey and probably T.Thomas before that dragging it back probably another couple of places. By then the guns in Lukosius/Smith/Walsh/Rankine/the King brothers are probably all taken, Ben probably the more likely to be there. It's just outside what I'd consider that desirable range.

Probably Hately as a mid would be the best bet there at that stage to put a name to the pick if Carlton went that route and wanted the best available and best mid. Rozee is another who could make sense if there.

Given the choice. Cerra and Hately or Lukosius. I'd take Lukosius. GWS could offer Coniglio and Shiel and I'm passing. The young fella (Lukosius) can be special - with my valuation of Lukosius much higher than where any others I'm aware of have him.

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare

Reckon this might interest you.

WOW!

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...nior-football-revolution-20180817-p4zy1g.html

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

Reckon this might interest you.

WOW!

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...nior-football-revolution-20180817-p4zy1g.html

A live stream (assuming it's publicly available to all and offers some replay function will be a positive). Will mean I can take in a lot more games each weekend.

I made the following comments earlier on another piece covering the same time:

Good for footy in Tasmania.

Good for footy in NSW/ACT and QLD conditional on players still receiving NEAFL opportunities.

Good for overagers if there are more opportunities against u19s competing for draft positions as many of them may struggle for state league opportunities - but it's ideal having them able to play VFL still as per the present structure.

Will be interesting to see how the travel elements goes with the competition. Who will finance it? Will it put off anyone not wanting to travel interstate with most in the competition still completing their schooling and having study commitments.

It's a different dynamic overall.

Time will tell if it's a change for the good or not.

At the moment, it feels like a positive for development. A question mark whether it will increase/decrease the participation rate.

 

[Blues90]

I think luke English is very under rated Knightmare wbu?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[briztoon]

I don't consider 7 as being as valuable as you are. Even at 7, you'll have a bid for Blakey and probably T.Thomas before that dragging it back probably another couple of places. By then the guns in Lukosius/Smith/Walsh/Rankine/the King brothers are probably all taken, Ben probably the more likely to be there. It's just outside what I'd consider that desirable range.

Probably Hately as a mid would be the best bet there at that stage to put a name to the pick if Carlton went that route and wanted the best available and best mid. Rozee is another who could make sense if there.

Given the choice. Cerra and Hately or Lukosius. I'd take Lukosius. GWS could offer Coniglio and Shiel and I'm passing. The young fella (Lukosius) can be special - with my valuation of Lukosius much higher than where any others I'm aware of have him.

But that doesn't change the actual player pool available at Pick 7, whether it stays at 7 or gets pushed back to pick 9. The same kids will still be available.

People have to understand that teams matching early bids (or bids anywhere) doesn't devalue the picks that get pushed back. Because the Academy or FS club was always likely going to match the bid any way.

It's actually better for all other clubs if the bids come in early, forcing North and Sydney to use their first picks to match the bids. Otherwise if North get to use their first pick before a bid is made on Tarryn Thomas, that decreases the player pool available to all other clubs by one player. Nor does it matter if there are residual points left over after matching a bid, because bids made in the first round do not generate a later pick with the residual points.


As for the trade being discussed.

If you are a team desperate for mids, Cerra is a very good "consolation" prize. There are only two mids in the top tier discussion, and according to quite a few draft watchers/commentators/reporters there's only one mid (Walsh) in that top tier of talent, with Smith being mentioned as belonging to the second tier of talent.

As a pure mid, Cerra is up there talent wise with Walsh and Smith. He certainly has looked like the best pure mid from the top end of last years draft out of Brayshaw, Dow, Davies-Uniacke and Cerra.

If Carlton could add Cerra and say a King twin or another mid such as Jackson Hately or Connor Rozee, that's a pretty good return for pick 1.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Nor does it matter if there are residual points left over after matching a bid, because bids made in the first round do not generate a later pick with the residual points.

Come again?

 

[briztoon]

Come again?

If a team has left over points from matching a first round bid with a first round pick, those left over points do not generate a later pick. But instead are held over, and if the team needs to match a second bid on another academy or FS player, those points are used first, before other picks/ points are used.

It's in the draft bid matching rules.

 

[Knightmare]

I think luke English is very under rated Knightmare wbu?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Going into the U18 champs, I went in excited to see a series of his games knowing his numbers as an ultra productive mid who could hit the scoreboard.

I found myself with each game feeling more and more underwhelmed by how he was performing. He's very low impact and his use by foot is poor. I'm not seeing the upside with him.

Late/rookie is where he should be selected.

But that doesn't change the actual player pool available at Pick 7, whether it stays at 7 or gets pushed back to pick 9. The same kids will still be available.

People have to understand that teams matching early bids (or bids anywhere) doesn't devalue the picks that get pushed back. Because the Academy or FS club was always likely going to match the bid any way.

It's actually better for all other clubs if the bids come in early, forcing North and Sydney to use their first picks to match the bids. Otherwise if North get to use their first pick before a bid is made on Tarryn Thomas, that decreases the player pool available to all other clubs by one player. Nor does it matter if there are residual points left over after matching a bid, because bids made in the first round do not generate a later pick with the residual points.

As for the trade being discussed.

If you are a team desperate for mids, Cerra is a very good "consolation" prize. There are only two mids in the top tier discussion, and according to quite a few draft watchers/commentators/reporters there's only one mid (Walsh) in that top tier of talent, with Smith being mentioned as belonging to the second tier of talent.

As a pure mid, Cerra is up there talent wise with Walsh and Smith. He certainly has looked like the best pure mid from the top end of last years draft out of Brayshaw, Dow, Davies-Uniacke and Cerra.

If Carlton could add Cerra and say a King twin or another mid such as Jackson Hately or Connor Rozee, that's a pretty good return for pick 1.

I don't think of it as pick numbers.

I look at it is Blakey and Thomas, bids or no bids won't be available. That's who players crossed off the power rankings. As with Lukosius, Walsh, M.King. And most likely Smith and Rankine. B.King may be that other player. That's what you have to plan for. Nice if it works out that one or more of those is available, but you plan for those guys not being there also.

Then we're down to the next talent tier with Hately the more solid choice of the rest remaining - but not a projected star or superstar.

You're right regarding the bidding of Thomas from North Melbourne. Though North Melbourne being aware of these conditions are expected to trade their first round pick during the trade period so that they're not forced to use their first round choice on Thomas.

Cerra I have behind both Smith and Walsh. Walsh as you say is the more highly rated of all three, though Smith is the better again and a better prospect than Walsh in my view.

I wouldn't personally be trading away a pick which I can use to take Lukosius with to secure Cerra + one of the King twins, Hately or Rozee. It's a trade where Carlton probably agree to the deal, and the value is around what others are likely to offer. But even knowing I need a midfielder, I'd still take Lukosius.

It's like looking back at 2001. You've got pick 3. Imagine West Coast have a loaded midfield but urgently need a key forward. You don't go taking Graham Polak. You take Chris Judd. It doesn't matter if Fremantle offer you pick 4 + a young Leigh Brown who went pick 5 only two years earlier. Chris Judd is still that much better on that level that you worry about the list need later and secure the elite talent.

Same goes with Carlton. If Lukosius is traded to Adelaide, injuries permitting. He can become the best in the game and Carlton will come out of the trade the losing, even if they get those three first round picks and West Coast and Melbourne keep dropping down the ladder.

 

[Schtinker]

Having Barlow in for Fiorini in your GC best 22 is quite humorous.

I think your dismissing the value of the "in the moment" coaching that Barlow can give. It's all well and good to sit down after the game has been lost and review the tape, but Barlow offers an on the spot assessment and modelling positive behaviors role that can't be glossed over. It's why clubs such as Brisbane got Hodge, Melbourne got Lewis and West Coast got Mitchell.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Having Barlow in for Fiorini in your GC best 22 is quite humorous.

You still own him in BBL?

 

[Penetrator]

Knightmare do you rate Lukosius higher than Charlie Currnow and If given the option to pick either to put on your list you would take Lukosius ?

 

[theGav56]

On these threads Cerra may be rated behind Walsh and Smith, but from a Fremantle perspective I wouldn't have thought we would trade him for either. He has demonstrated his potential at the next level. However if he wanted to be traded, those are the players who would be considered as his value in this draft.

I also think that Fremantle will be very interested in Thomas and he falls right in the range for our pick. Tasmanians also seem to work well for us. I would be keen for us to bid, and also keen for us to offer our 2019 first rounder for North's 2018 first.

Thoughts?.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare do you rate Lukosius higher than Charlie Currnow and If given the option to pick either to put on your list you would take Lukosius ?

Give me the choice between the two.

I would take Lukosius.

There is not a player in the competition I would start a team with ahead of Lukosius.

On these threads Cerra may be rated behind Walsh and Smith, but from a Fremantle perspective I wouldn't have thought we would trade him for either. He has demonstrated his potential at the next level. However if he wanted to be traded, those are the players who would be considered as his value in this draft.

I also think that Fremantle will be very interested in Thomas and he falls right in the range for our pick. Tasmanians also seem to work well for us. I would be keen for us to bid, and also keen for us to offer our 2019 first rounder for North's 2018 first.

Thoughts?.

Cerra I mentioned earlier has the scope to be the best mid from last years draft. He's a keeper in the ideal world. For mine, he's clearly better than Brayshaw as I said draft day last year and his performances don't come as a surprise. He'll be a big time midfielder injuries permitting for a long time.

In clubland, Walsh would be seen as having higher value, Smith around the same as Cerra.

And that's not bagging on Cerra, it's just a case of seeing the best 7-8 players this year as being exceptional and types who in any draft would all feature inside any top 5 on draft day. That top bracket this year is as good as any we've seen.

I just have a differing view with my projection of Smith higher than others have him and Walsh more comparable to Cerra, though ever so slightly the more attractive prospect not having that injury history and being even higher production again and a rarer blend of inside/outside.

Fremantle haven't shown an aversion to taking Tasmanian's. I also find Fremantle enjoy the athletic/speedy types, so I can see Thomas placing high on the clubs draft board. Fremantle could well be the club to place a bid on him. I could see North offering their 2018 1st rounder for Fremantle's 2019 1st rounder, wanting to get out of their first pick this year. It would be among those trade offers considered by North, if the offer came.

 

[Freoforever86]

Fantastic article - love the reasoning behind each scenario.

I keep changing my mind daily between, Luko, Walsh, Smith and Shiel.

I still think Pick #1 might spark Freo's interest also given their need for a KPF and historical recording with retaining SA talent.

They also have the tools to organise a trade pick Pick #6 and Cerra also perhaps still being on the table?

Cerra and pick 6/7 won’t happen. Cerra has lost no value and would be worth a top 5 picK alone.

 

[theGav56]

Cerra and pick 6/7 won’t happen. Cerra has lost no value and would be worth a top 5 picK alone.

It's interesting isn't it. The critical thing is what Cerra wants to do, and of course he doesn't have to decide now. But if he has made a decision then some deal needs to happen.

 

[mattyc75]

Knightmare do you rate Lukosius higher than Charlie Currnow and If given the option to pick either to put on your list you would take Lukosius ?

Silly question,he would take lukosius before carey,gablett snr or judd at their peaks

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[Knightmare]

Silly question,he would take lukosius before carey,gablett snr or judd at their peaks

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The likes of Buckley, Matthews, Lockett, the Ablett's among other all-time greats if you had their careers in front of them and you knew the outcomes. You'd take them, mostly because you have that element of certainty v the draft process where you have that lottery element where you can be 90%, 95% sure even, but there are variables such as coaching, player development, injuries, depth of certain types and need to play a particular position among other variables that mean careers aren't always as you project them to go, particularly coming out of the juniors.

Comparing Lukosius v others currently playing. He's someone who has his career ahead of him. He can be a 300 gamer and be an all-time great if things go right.

Grundy is the ruckman I'd start a team with. Cripps is that midfielder I'd rate highest. They're the two others in that conversation being still young enough where 2/3 of their career should still be ahead of them.

I'm just not seeing that generational player with their careers ahead of them. Ablett was the generation mid, Franklin the generational forward. Dangerfield had a series of all-time years but he's nearing 30. Martin had an all-time year last year, but that looked like a one off.

Lukosius can be that next generational talent if things go right.

 

[blueiris]

If the AFL give the top 5 picks between Carlton and the Suns who would you look at pick 7 for the Lions taking out you're Academy F/S and IGA player's would there be any elite players available or would you trade it for a late first round pick say Adelaide's (Melbourne) pick ? and a first round pick next year

 

[rog1995]

The likes of Buckley, Matthews, Lockett, the Ablett's among other all-time greats if you had their careers in front of them and you knew the outcomes. You'd take them, mostly because you have that element of certainty v the draft process where you have that lottery element where you can be 90%, 95% sure even, but there are variables such as coaching, player development, injuries, depth of certain types and need to play a particular position among other variables that mean careers aren't always as you project them to go, particularly coming out of the juniors.

Comparing Lukosius v others currently playing. He's someone who has his career ahead of him. He can be a 300 gamer and be an all-time great if things go right.

Grundy is the ruckman I'd start a team with. Cripps is that midfielder I'd rate highest. They're the two others in that conversation being still young enough where 2/3 of their career should still be ahead of them.

I'm just not seeing that generational player with their careers ahead of them. Ablett was the generation mid, Franklin the generational forward. Dangerfield had a series of all-time years but he's nearing 30. Martin had an all-time year last year, but that looked like a one off.

Lukosius can be that next generational talent if things go right.

Fair response.

 

[Knightmare]

If the AFL give the top 5 picks between Carlton and the Suns who would you look at pick 7 for the Lions taking out you're Academy F/S and IGA player's would there be any elite players available or would you trade it for a late first round pick say Adelaide's (Melbourne) pick ? and a first round pick next year

I'd be exploring trades. Perhaps established players if possible, otherwise moving up or a two for one.

Ben King as a key defender probably isn't a need with Brisbane having more key defenders than they need.

Hately as a mid is about the best you'd get. He's a good mid, but I don't see him as a number one option. More a good second or third mid.

After Hately you're looking at more speculative types - Collier-Dawkins could be great, but he might not come on. Taylor I have in a similar boat.

It's not a spot I've love to be picking unless a Smith, Rankine or similar drops. It's just outside that range of those ultra-elites.

 

[james brayshaw]

Give me the choice between the two.

I would take Lukosius.

There is not a player in the competition I would start a team with ahead of Lukosius.

Are there any qualities Curnow has that you would rate higher than Lukosius?

 

[gcsunsfc]

Lyons I find difficult to leave outside that best 22. He's the best player on their list today. He is regarded by AFL Ranking (even with games missed due to non-selection) the 36th best player in the competition (their only player inside the top 60).

Brodie also needs to be a regular and with another preseason needs to become a regular and have games pumped into him. I'm not seeing the quality keeping either of them outside the clubs best 22.

I definitely wouldn't be investing in the two King boys with picks 2/3. Maybe Max at 3, but Lukosius has to be the priority if there at 2. Otherwise Walsh and Smith are those for mine anyway best available's with Max King and Rankine firmly in that conversation.

My current GC best 22 is:
B: Jarrod Harbrow Steven May Kade Kolodjasknij
HB: Pearce Hanley Rory Thompson Lachie Weller
CEN: Matt Rosa Touk Miller Aaron Hall
HF: Jack Martin Peter Wright Aaron Young
F: Ben Ainsworth Tom Lynch David Swallow
FOLL: Jarrod Witts Michael Barlow Jarryd Lyons
BENCH: Jack Bowes Will Brodie Brayden Crossley Charlie Ballard
Next in line injury replacements/suitable for AFL selection: Tom Nicholls Brad Scheer Nick Holman Brayden Fiorini Michael Rischitelli



If Lukosius is there at pick 2, he needs to be taken, with Lynch to leave as a free agent and Gold Coast to honour his wishes, Lukosius goes to CHF, Wright goes deeper forward and Crossley relieves through the ruck and provides another tall forward target with Ballard also able to push forward and rotate wing/chf with Lukosius. If Lukosius isn't going to be there at 2, Gold Coast must move up to pick 1 and add another pick to 2 to ensure they get him.

If Wallis and McVeigh can be brought in, do it. George Horlin-Smith I'd offer a F/A contract to. He can be a regular mid and is proven but just stuck behind the glut of stars Geelong have. Daniel Menzel I'd also offer a multi-year deal to to snag some more quality. Luke Dahlhaus can be offered a contract. Alex Fasolo is another worth an offer. They can all pretty easily add experience and slot straight into the clubs best 22. Otherwise any other veterans looking to be forced into retirement are worth calling.


I don't consider Ah Chee to be doing enough. Only 3 goals from 12 games. Only one 20+ possession game. Only one game with five or more tackles. No 10+ contested possession games. Even though he is getting games, he's one of many getting picked every week who is not performing to an AFL standard.

Interesting to read the appraisal. Appreciate an outside view.
Few comments from someone who watches every GC game carefully to someone who obviously doesn't.
Overall your top 22 is not too far off (in comparison with the previous attempt)
- Lemmens been removed which is 100% correct, Ballard there which is good.

However,
Fiorini is 100% best 22
- His games the last fortnight have consolidated that, but really he has been for the last 2 years - just been injured a bit.
Sexton is 100% best 22 - leading goal kicker. Think you must have just forgotten him rather than intentionally left him out.

Clearly you just picked from the list regardless of availability and direction of the list but Rosa retired, Hall + Lynch gone, Barlow - confirmed last night - just too slow and not athletically up to AFL standard IMO.

Ah Chee has played about 10% of this year as a forward, really he has been playing as a back pocket for past 8+ weeks. You listed his goals scored as first knock on his game which doesn't really seem a fair assessment of a back pocket. Agree that he has huge talent and hasn't performed up to that level this year.

Wallis (can play forward) and McVeigh (poise from defence) - both yes for me
GHS - I don't know as much as you would clearly - but seems slower inside mid only type, heard great clubman as well? Would you be playing him ahead of Brodie, Lyons, Miller, Swallow? because we couldn't play more slow inside mids than those 4. Good for depth and for culture perspective but might be NEAFL bound unless injuries.


Finally - Bailey Scott played well in the NEAFL against 16 listed Brisbane Lions players yesterday
- Do you think we would make a perhaps earlier bid on him than he is rated if he decides to nominate Geelong for instance?

 

[gcsunsfc]

Are there any qualities Curnow has that you would rate higher than Lukosius?

looks