Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[LemmingMaster]

Are there any qualities Curnow has that you would rate higher than Lukosius?

The hard part to compare is the fact Curnow has developed. Curnow currently looks better in the air than Lukosius for mine.

 

[dlanod]

Are there any qualities Curnow has that you would rate higher than Lukosius?

Spellable name.

 

[Cleric]

Knightmare when are you looking at throwing up your first idea on next years crop and how they may compare to this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting to read the appraisal. Appreciate an outside view.
Few comments from someone who watches every GC game carefully to someone who obviously doesn't.
Overall your top 22 is not too far off (in comparison with the previous attempt)
- Lemmens been removed which is 100% correct, Ballard there which is good.

However,
Fiorini is 100% best 22
- His games the last fortnight have consolidated that, but really he has been for the last 2 years - just been injured a bit.
Sexton is 100% best 22 - leading goal kicker. Think you must have just forgotten him rather than intentionally left him out.

Clearly you just picked from the list regardless of availability and direction of the list but Rosa retired, Hall + Lynch gone, Barlow - confirmed last night - just too slow and not athletically up to AFL standard IMO.

Ah Chee has played about 10% of this year as a forward, really he has been playing as a back pocket for past 8+ weeks. You listed his goals scored as first knock on his game which doesn't really seem a fair assessment of a back pocket. Agree that he has huge talent and hasn't performed up to that level this year.

Wallis (can play forward) and McVeigh (poise from defence) - both yes for me
GHS - I don't know as much as you would clearly - but seems slower inside mid only type, heard great clubman as well? Would you be playing him ahead of Brodie, Lyons, Miller, Swallow? because we couldn't play more slow inside mids than those 4. Good for depth and for culture perspective but might be NEAFL bound unless injuries.


Finally - Bailey Scott played well in the NEAFL against 16 listed Brisbane Lions players yesterday
- Do you think we would make a perhaps earlier bid on him than he is rated if he decides to nominate Geelong for instance?

Fiorini and Sexton had good ones last night didn't they? They're two I'd have in the selection mix but not necessarily inside that 2018 best team. Late season signs would have them firmly in the mix for the 2019 best 22, subject to list additions/subtractions.

While it's not a popular call, I still consider Barlow capable and worth playing/retaining.

Rosa is another where I would have liked to have seen him used more this year. He still felt capable when I've watched him and just due to age felt unused with Gold Coast wanting as with Barlow to go young.

Horlin-Smith is one of those high quality characters, great clubman. Athleticism is fine. He's more your ball winner. Just lacking opportunity. He's more advanced than Brodie and would be on parr with Miller/Swallow roughly for a feel. Overall with that group I'd look to play all five of them, but have them rotating forward as needed and look to play a large midfield rotation.

I've never been one to be concerned if a midfield is slow or not - Sydney have typically had a slow midfield and won consistently without it hurting their wins/losses. I also don't consider Brodie or Swallow to be slow. Today's game unless we get radical rule changes is such a contested stoppage fest, that being able to win the ball and pressure + create turnovers really are the most central ideas, then having enough speed of ball movement, that's fine. And moving the ball fast has never been an issue for Gold Coast anyway. I look at Gold Coast's issue as being more so inability to win it and not using the ball reliably enough to stay in possession long enough.

I don't see a bid coming early for Scott. Late second round or somewhere in the third round I look at as likely.

Are there any qualities Curnow has that you would rate higher than Lukosius?

Strength, aerial marking power, contested marking, explosiveness, scope to go onto the ball and win the contested ball.

 

[shlong]

Knightmare , Stkilda have pick 3 atm, should they go for rankine given pace and just general pzzazz?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare when are you looking at throwing up your first idea on next years crop and how they may compare to this year?

I may as well give an early, quick take now to get some discussion going.

This years draft is strong than 2019 - particularly up the top end with this year special inside that first 7/8. Better KPPs this year. While this Victorian's this year relatively are weaker than they have been in recent years, for the next two years and dipping with each season I actually feel Victorian football is looking a lot weaker as we saw with the u16 champs.

Watching the u17s last weekend, I didn't find myself in love with any of them. Potter really has speed and looks developable as he has shown through the TAC Cup all season, though he really needs to develop that contested side of his game if he wants to be more than just a potential, flash in pan type. But even finding a second player I'd look at as a likely first rounder for next year on quality, there just wasn't that next player - though the best Victorian's who played u18 champs weren't playing.

Like this year, the interstaters look terrific over the next couple of years.

I'm also finding myself in love with Thomas Green's game - GWS Academy. He looks like a clear top 1-3 pick next year. He could be another Patrick Cripps in terms of career outcome.

From Victoria, Sam Flanders is my top prospect at the moment and along with Green is that other prospect I view as a top 1-3 quality pick, and he could be next years Rayner equivalent as that damaging forward who can also push up through the mids.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare , Stkilda have pick 3 atm, should they go for rankine given pace and just general pzzazz?

With Gold Coast to lose Lynch as a free agent, keep in mind that pick probably becomes 4.

I'd have a shortlist of two with that pick. Smith as a mid I really like as a fit as he has the contested ball winning power, explosiveness and then skills. Rankine is that second player at that pick as he has that x-factor and can on his day influence games as well as just about any.

Smith I prefer of the two and would also say as a list fit is the better of the two with St Kilda's midfield slow and lacking skill, but I wouldn't say no to Rankine either.

 

[footylover18]

Fiorini and Sexton had good ones last night didn't they? They're two I'd have in the selection mix but not necessarily inside that 2018 best team. Late season signs would have them firmly in the mix for the 2019 best 22, subject to list additions/subtractions.

.

It's not late season signs from Fiorini.

He had a 32 possession, 7 mark, 12 tackle, 2 goal game

in his 2nd game of AFL football.

Injury has prevented a free run at it, but last night was an expected part of his ongoing development. He's played 26 games, and is tracking along beautifully. I couldn't believe you had Barlow in there ahead of him and the only explanation was perhaps your penchant for "formulas" and you just wanted to have an experienced player in the side, despite how terrible they are. Last night provided further evidence, as if any more was necessary, that Barlow is finished as an AFL footballer. He'll have moments, but if GC took your advice and chose to play the likes of Barlow instead of developing the likes of Fiorini, they'd go absolutely nowhere fast.

 

[gcsunsfc]

Fiorini and Sexton had good ones last night didn't they? They're two I'd have in the selection mix but not necessarily inside that 2018 best team. Late season signs would have them firmly in the mix for the 2019 best 22, subject to list additions/subtractions.

While it's not a popular call, I still consider Barlow capable and worth playing/retaining.

Rosa is another where I would have liked to have seen him used more this year. He still felt capable when I've watched him and just due to age felt unused with Gold Coast wanting as with Barlow to go young.

Horlin-Smith is one of those high quality characters, great clubman. Athleticism is fine. He's more your ball winner. Just lacking opportunity. He's more advanced than Brodie and would be on parr with Miller/Swallow roughly for a feel. Overall with that group I'd look to play all five of them, but have them rotating forward as needed and look to play a large midfield rotation.

I've never been one to be concerned if a midfield is slow or not - Sydney have typically had a slow midfield and won consistently without it hurting their wins/losses. I also don't consider Brodie or Swallow to be slow. Today's game unless we get radical rule changes is such a contested stoppage fest, that being able to win the ball and pressure + create turnovers really are the most central ideas, then having enough speed of ball movement, that's fine. And moving the ball fast has never been an issue for Gold Coast anyway. I look at Gold Coast's issue as being more so inability to win it and not using the ball reliably enough to stay in possession long enough.

I don't see a bid coming early for Scott. Late second round or somewhere in the third round I look at as likely.



Strength, aerial marking power, contested marking, explosiveness, scope to go onto the ball and win the contested ball.

Hmm.
I posted this on our board, no doubt Barlow can find the ball.
But lowest pressure acts this week from our mids and 0 tackles, think his athletic limitations are a bit of a defensive liability.

Sexton has averaged 1.9 goals a game the past 10 weeks, provides some forward half pace and finishing.
For a team averaging 8.5 goals a match... thats very valuable for us.

We moved the ball fast a few years ago, not sure this is true anymore.
Yeah, Sydney have the SCG.
As long as your slow midfielders can work ok defensively then don't think it's an issue.

If we can injection Lukosious + a couple of skilled midfielders I think this will be massive for us.

For next year I would have my best 22 as

Harbrow Thompson Kolodjasnij
Hanley May Weller
Fiorini Miller Bowes
Martin Day Sexton
Young Wright Ainsworth

Witts Swallow Lyons

Brodie / Macpherson / Ballard / Crossley or Ah Chee depending on opposition.


At least one of the first year players will probably be in as well.

Cheers for the analysis.

 

[Cleric]

I may as well give an early, quick take now to get some discussion going.

This years draft is strong than 2019 - particularly up the top end with this year special inside that first 7/8. Better KPPs this year. While this Victorian's this year relatively are weaker than they have been in recent years, for the next two years and dipping with each season I actually feel Victorian football is looking a lot weaker as we saw with the u16 champs.

Watching the u17s last weekend, I didn't find myself in love with any of them. Potter really has speed and looks developable as he has shown through the TAC Cup all season, though he really needs to develop that contested side of his game if he wants to be more than just a potential, flash in pan type. But even finding a second player I'd look at as a likely first rounder for next year on quality, there just wasn't that next player - though the best Victorian's who played u18 champs weren't playing.

Like this year, the interstaters look terrific over the next couple of years.

I'm also finding myself in love with Thomas Green's game - GWS Academy. He looks like a clear top 1-3 pick next year. He could be another Patrick Cripps in terms of career outcome.

From Victoria, Sam Flanders is my top prospect at the moment and along with Green is that other prospect I view as a top 1-3 quality pick, and he could be next years Rayner equivalent as that damaging forward who can also push up through the mids.

I dont think SAs 2019 squad is as good as this years. There is alot of middling players but not as many top ones as this year. Cam Tahany and Will Gould are the top couple for me, with three of the next lot FS or Crows NGA.

 

[gcsunsfc]

It's not late season signs from Fiorini.

He had a 32 possession, 7 mark, 12 tackle, 2 goal game

in his 2nd game of AFL football.

Injury has prevented a free run at it, but last night was an expected part of his ongoing development. He's played 26 games, and is tracking along beautifully. I couldn't believe you had Barlow in there ahead of him and the only explanation was perhaps your penchant for "formulas" and you just wanted to have an experienced player in the side, despite how terrible they are. Last night provided further evidence, as if any more was necessary, that Barlow is finished as an AFL footballer. He'll have moments, but if GC took your advice and chose to play the likes of Barlow instead of developing the likes of Fiorini, they'd go absolutely nowhere fast.

agree 100%
Fiorini has played as a small defender some weeks (ie. Carlton game) which have prevented him getting 20 possessions every game.
When he plays midfield he is a 25+ possession player that can kick goals - and has been from the moment he arrived - his NEAFL stats before his debut games at the end of 2016 were exactly the same.
One of our best young prospects.

 

[footylover18]

agree 100%
Fiorini has played as a small defender some weeks (ie. Carlton game) which have prevented him getting 20 possessions every game.
When he plays midfield he is a 25+ possession player that can kick goals - and has been from the moment he arrived - his NEAFL stats before his debut games at the end of 2016 were exactly the same.
One of our best young prospects.

correct.

also, those calling for Barlow to be played in the senior side are prob only looking at his box scores.

he'll be able to get 40 touches in the NEAFL when he's 40y.o, but he is turning it over like nothing else. if he cant use it properly at that level, then it stands to reason he is going to seriously struggle with the speed of AFL.

As you said, Fiorini has put up equally impressive box scores when he's played NEAFL, the diff being is that he isn't turning it over at the rate Barlow is and he's also the future of the club so should be developed at the highest level.

 

[gcsunsfc]

correct.

also, those calling for Barlow to be played in the senior side are prob only looking at his box scores.

he'll be able to get 40 touches in the NEAFL when he's 40y.o, but he is turning it over like nothing else. if he cant use it properly at that level, then it stands to reason he is going to seriously struggle with the speed of AFL.

As you said, Fiorini has put up equally impressive box scores when he's played NEAFL, the diff being is that he isn't turning it over at the rate Barlow is and he's also the future of the club so should be developed at the highest level.

Barlow 10 pressure acts 0 tackles

 

[Knightmare]

It's not late season signs from Fiorini.

He had a 32 possession, 7 mark, 12 tackle, 2 goal game

in his 2nd game of AFL football.

Injury has prevented a free run at it, but last night was an expected part of his ongoing development. He's played 26 games, and is tracking along beautifully. I couldn't believe you had Barlow in there ahead of him and the only explanation was perhaps your penchant for "formulas" and you just wanted to have an experienced player in the side, despite how terrible they are. Last night provided further evidence, as if any more was necessary, that Barlow is finished as an AFL footballer. He'll have moments, but if GC took your advice and chose to play the likes of Barlow instead of developing the likes of Fiorini, they'd go absolutely nowhere fast.

You're right Fiorini did that in his second game (though I'm referring to the 2018 season, not 2016). With Fiorini I'm talking about that bump in performance because he's finally tackling/pressuring to a higher level.

Fiorini has always been able to find it, but he's always been an outside/low impact player which was more his issue and why I don't have him in my 2018 best 22 for Gold Coast.

With Barlow as I said before, I'd disagree. You need those veterans in there to help fast-track the develop of a clubs youth. We've seen with so many teams historically who have gone young who haven't been able to develop their players. And we're seeing it with Gold Coast. If Brodie and Bowes went to a Hawthorn, they'd be regular best 22 players and established, quality players by now, based on pre-draft projections. Neither of them have come on big yet. With a Barlow, a Rosa and a few other veterans, you can have those types instruct and teach them out on the field on the fly. That adds tremendous value.

It's like with Lynden Dunn at Collingwood. He's no star. But the instruction and leadership he provided down back before injury was sensational and helped fast-track the development of the clubs defenders and helped to create a strong and stable backline in a hurry.

If you play young players, you need those guys surrounding them, or you're going to go around in the rebuilding loop as per Carlton/Melbourne/Richmond/Brisbane have previously.

Hmm.
I posted this on our board, no doubt Barlow can find the ball.
But lowest pressure acts this week from our mids and 0 tackles, think his athletic limitations are a bit of a defensive liability.

Sexton has averaged 1.9 goals a game the past 10 weeks, provides some forward half pace and finishing.
For a team averaging 8.5 goals a match... thats very valuable for us.

We moved the ball fast a few years ago, not sure this is true anymore.
Yeah, Sydney have the SCG.
As long as your slow midfielders can work ok defensively then don't think it's an issue.

If we can injection Lukosious + a couple of skilled midfielders I think this will be massive for us.

For next year I would have my best 22 as

Harbrow Thompson Kolodjasnij
Hanley May Weller
Fiorini Miller Bowes
Martin Day Sexton
Young Wright Ainsworth

Witts Swallow Lyons

Brodie / Macpherson / Ballard / Crossley or Ah Chee depending on opposition.


At least one of the first year players will probably be in as well.

Cheers for the analysis.

I think the issue with Barlow and same goes with any of those late 20s and those in their 30s, they lose the pace of the game if they're not playing at AFL level for an extended period. The NEAFL isn't the same pace of game as at AFL level and it would take a stretch of games for Barlow to really get used to play at that level again.

I also feel in his first year with Gold Coast he was misused playing a lot up around half-forward. He's a pure midfielder. If he's not used on the ball, he's being wasted. That's where he adds value.

Sexton has always had the pace, but his lack of consistency and uncontested game doesn't leave me loving him. He needs to get even as a forward to somewhere around 6-8 contested possessions per game. A positive that he is hitting the scoreboard this season, and that needs to continue.

Day is one I don't love - he's an athlete, but has never done enough. And with Lynch going, it's a case of options are limited, though I'd go with Crossley and Ballard supporting Wright.

Macpherson I like for pressure but he needs to find more of it and/or hit the scoreboard more.

Ah Chee I don't feel has really found a role. On 2018 form he isn't best 22, so improvement is needed.

I dont think SAs 2019 squad is as good as this years. There is alot of middling players but not as many top ones as this year. Cam Tahany and Will Gould are the top couple for me, with three of the next lot FS or Crows NGA.

Their 2018 group is spectacular, so I definitely agree with you there. It's still a solid group for 2019 though that can again be a contender.

 

[footylover18]

With Barlow as I said before, I'd disagree. You need those veterans in there to help fast-track the develop of a clubs youth. We've seen with so many teams historically who have gone young who haven't been able to develop their players. And we're seeing it with Gold Coast. If Brodie and Bowes went to a Hawthorn, they'd be regular best 22 players and established, quality players by now, based on pre-draft projections. .

I know what you mean, but you cant just play washed up guys because they are "veterans". You can play veterans that are still borderline best 22, but inhibiting the growth of your best prospects by playing washed up old guys is not the way forward. By all means, play some veterans, but they have to be contributing something other than just being old.

I agree regarding Bowes and Brodie, but i think Hawthorn develop guys better. I dont think its because they play washed up old veterans. Part of that development is knowing when to bring in the players to the senior team and when they do, playing them in their best position.

Brodie should have been given plenty more games. Bowes was initially played well out of position, and to be fair, he wasnt' physically up to it yet.

 

[Knightmare]

I know what you mean, but you cant just play washed up guys because they are "veterans". You can play veterans that are still borderline best 22, but inhibiting the growth of your best prospects by playing washed up old guys is not the way forward. By all means, play some veterans, but they have to be contributing something other than just being old.

I agree regarding Bowes and Brodie, but i think Hawthorn develop guys better. I dont think its because they play washed up old veterans. Part of that development is knowing when to bring in the players to the senior team and when they do, playing them in their best position.

Brodie should have been given plenty more games. Bowes was initially played well out of position, and to be fair, he wasnt' physically up to it yet.

I agree with veterans that you play those who are still producing. It's just we have differing perceptions of what is still producing. I still look at Barlow and Rosa even on this years form as clear best 22 performers with those young guys still behind them on performance.

I also agree that you play guys in the positions/roles that best suit them. It's like their use of Tom Mitchell is much smarter than Sydney's usage of Mitchell. You play guys to their strengths and let them be the best possible versions of themselves.

Where our views seem to differ is that I don't see Gold Coast's list as having that much talent for it to matter if veterans play or not.

As per my earlier best 22. Even assuming a fully healthy list, I still included the clubs key young pieces - Brodie/Bowes/Ballard/Crossley etc as players I project as long term best 22 players. And those who aren't yet playing consistently good football were outside of that. You still get injuries, so the likes of Fiorini would still get games. And really with the number of injuries they have had this season, needing to go so far down their depth charts, a lot of players who aren't ready or good enough at the end of the day are getting games. So it often doesn't matter with those fringe types anyway, as they'll still get their chances.

 

[Bicks]

Went into the triple header at Mars yesterday....the Falcons player I hadn't even considered up to this point Tall Blake Schenslog impressed me quite a bit both in Ruck, around the ground and up forward, mobile and looks to cover the ground well. Thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

Went into the triple header at Mars yesterday....the Falcons player I hadn't even considered up to this point Tall Blake Schenslog impressed me quite a bit both in Ruck, around the ground and up forward, mobile and looks to cover the ground well. Thoughts?

Geelong have access to Schlensog through their academy if they want him. I feel he will receive strong rookie consideration.

Good height and mobility is what brings to the table. v Dandenong that was probably his best game. He's someone who will take time to develop.

Would I draft him? I'm all about elite talls only, so I'd be passing.

His production isn't impressive enough as a sub 1 goal a game type who plays fwd/ruck. Probably not finding quite enough of it around the ground or taking enough grabs.

Also from a point of difference standpoint. You need to be able to do something others can't take makes you hard to defend. I'm not seeing that one point of different with him to feel that enthused. So I'm looking at him more as a state leaguer at the moment.

 

[Muffasa]

I may as well give an early, quick take now to get some discussion going.

This years draft is strong than 2019 - particularly up the top end with this year special inside that first 7/8. Better KPPs this year. While this Victorian's this year relatively are weaker than they have been in recent years, for the next two years and dipping with each season I actually feel Victorian football is looking a lot weaker as we saw with the u16 champs.

Watching the u17s last weekend, I didn't find myself in love with any of them. Potter really has speed and looks developable as he has shown through the TAC Cup all season, though he really needs to develop that contested side of his game if he wants to be more than just a potential, flash in pan type. But even finding a second player I'd look at as a likely first rounder for next year on quality, there just wasn't that next player - though the best Victorian's who played u18 champs weren't playing.

Like this year, the interstaters look terrific over the next couple of years.

I'm also finding myself in love with Thomas Green's game - GWS Academy. He looks like a clear top 1-3 pick next year. He could be another Patrick Cripps in terms of career outcome.

From Victoria, Sam Flanders is my top prospect at the moment and along with Green is that other prospect I view as a top 1-3 quality pick, and he could be next years Rayner equivalent as that damaging forward who can also push up through the mids.

Green - 24 touches (22 contested), 10 clearances in his 3rd NEAFL game yesterday... could be very dominate in the U/18s in 2019.

 

[Rusca96]

I may as well give an early, quick take now to get some discussion going.

This years draft is strong than 2019 - particularly up the top end with this year special inside that first 7/8. Better KPPs this year. While this Victorian's this year relatively are weaker than they have been in recent years, for the next two years and dipping with each season I actually feel Victorian football is looking a lot weaker as we saw with the u16 champs.

Watching the u17s last weekend, I didn't find myself in love with any of them. Potter really has speed and looks developable as he has shown through the TAC Cup all season, though he really needs to develop that contested side of his game if he wants to be more than just a potential, flash in pan type. But even finding a second player I'd look at as a likely first rounder for next year on quality, there just wasn't that next player - though the best Victorian's who played u18 champs weren't playing.

Like this year, the interstaters look terrific over the next couple of years.

I'm also finding myself in love with Thomas Green's game - GWS Academy. He looks like a clear top 1-3 pick next year. He could be another Patrick Cripps in terms of career outcome.

From Victoria, Sam Flanders is my top prospect at the moment and along with Green is that other prospect I view as a top 1-3 quality pick, and he could be next years Rayner equivalent as that damaging forward who can also push up through the mids.

How did you rate the Qld top 4 Budarick, Gore, Crosseley and Martyn

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi Knightmare, If Silvagni decides to utilize pick 1 who wil it be? Lukosius, Rankine or Walsh ? Lukosius & Rankine will be sensational I'm certain in 3 years or so, Sam Walsh is competant ,
a more conservative pick, not a high flight risk, and has played with Dow and O'Brien a sensible selection and we do need midfield talent, but It's difficult to overlook the other gun players avaiblie.

 

[Knightmare]

How did you rate the Qld top 4 Budarick, Gore, Crosseley and Martyn

I mention Budarick, Crossley and Martyn in my weekly wrap last week.

Gore's tackling was solid and I also liked the way he committed to going hard after a high ball and took the mark.

Those four and Corey Joyce were those I left the game thinking are potentially draftable.

Hi Knightmare, If Silvagni decides to utilize pick 1 who wil it be? Lukosius, Rankine or Walsh ? Lukosius & Rankine will be sensational I'm certain in 3 years or so, Waksh is competant and a conservative pick, not a high flight risk, and has played with Dow and O'Brien ticks a sensible choice and we need midfield talent, but It's difficult to overlook other gun players avaiblie.

I wrote a piece just last week on exactly this topic (see my signature or page one) where I talk about my take on what Carlton should do with pick one.

If Carlton keep the pick. Walsh is favoured at this stage is the belief.

Green - 24 touches (22 contested), 10 clearances in his 3rd NEAFL game yesterday... could be very dominate in the U/18s in 2019.

Pretty typical numbers from Green, crazy as that sounds at that age in that competition.

 

[Muffasa]

I mention Budarick, Crossley and Martyn in my weekly wrap last week.

Gore's tackling was solid and I also liked the way he committed to going hard after a high ball and took the mark.

Those four and Corey Joyce were those I left the game thinking are potentially draftable.



I wrote a piece just last week on exactly this topic (see my signature or page one) where I talk about my take on what Carlton should do with pick one.

If Carlton keep the pick. Walsh is favoured at this stage is the belief.



Pretty typical numbers from Green, crazy as that sounds at that age in that competition.

Seems like a hard nut /competitive big mid. No doubt they’ll want him to be a goal kicker (resting fwd) as well. Could be the first academy player to go no 1....or has there been one? If so, great story for the nth states academy programs

 

[bmaurizio]

Thanks Knightmare, very detailed article, I woud expect at leader 5 or 6 of the talls mentioned in the list to be let go over the next 2yeats

 

[weetert]

.

I'm also finding myself in love with Thomas Green's game - GWS Academy. He looks like a clear top 1-3 pick next year. He could be another Patrick Cripps in terms of career outcome.

You rate Green that highly? He looks very slow but has great footy smarts and is a great contested/intercept mark. I'd personally say he's closer to 10-30 at this stage.