Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Jazny]

Hey Knightmare,

Are these Tarryn Thomas stories with foundation?

The cynic in me believes North Melbourne have worked out they are going to need points to get their other targets.

Clearly if he has been off all year that would be a far too elaborate ruse however we have seen and known of clubs getting kids to run dead in draft years to diminish value.

Is their foundation here or is he just going shithouse and lacking in required professionalism/maturity??

No foundation according to his club (North Launceston) and a rival AFL scout.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-30/tarryn-thomas-scrutiny/10180022

I haven't heard issues about Tarryn Thomas previously, though the recent reports are concerning. I don't know how true or otherwise the recent reports are, I suggest there are at least elements of truth, if not a lot of it. If further sources come and back up the story, then we're probably looking at reality.

Looking at his play and how he has arguably even regressed over the past year losing that offensive flair from his game, I can't say I'm shocked as he is someone given how good he was even two years ago coming onto the scene during the U18 champs, you'd expect him to be doing much more than he has this year.

He won the division 2 MVP and some were saying it was the best Div 2 series by a player ever. He was carrying an injury for some of his games in the Allies and was played out of position for the most of it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-30/tarryn-thomas-scrutiny/10180022

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Mate.

Lock this in now...Carlton,Gold Coast ,Bulldogs and Adelaide are going to work together too...
Pick 1 Carlton take Walsh
Carlton Give first pick next year for McGovern and receive Adelaide second round next year.
Pick 2 Gold Coast goes to Adelaide for picks 6,7 or 7 and 8 Lukosius
Bulldogs swap pic 6,42 for Adelaide's picks 14,19,37

So Draft will be..
1.Walsh-Carl
2.Lukosius -Adelaide
3.Smith-Gold Coast
4.B.King-St Kilda
5.M.King-Fremantle Via Neal trade
6.Hill-Fremantle
7.Rankine-Gold Coast
8.Rozzee-Gold Coast
9.Blakey-Swans>Bid
10.Hately-Ess
11.Stocker-Port
12.Taylor-North
13.Caldwell-Geel
14.Jones-GWS
15.O,Hallaron-Dogs
16.West-Dogs.Bid
17.Hawks-Collier-Dawkins
18.Dursma-Collingwood
19.Valente-Rich
20.Clarke-West Coast

I see Adelaide requiring pick 1 to get Lukosius, I see some clubs trying to leapfrog Adelaide if they only trade for pick 2. Carlton may be able to negotiate to move down to 2 to get their man in Walsh.

Maybe for Carlton it is as simple as something like pick 1 for McGovern and pick 2. With Adelaide and Gold Coast do an exchange that nets Gold Coast x3 first rounders via Adelaide and get that first pick and perhaps a future second rounder. Or some variation of a deal with this thought process in mind.

As for the picks. I don't see Hill going that early. Rankine should be preferred. Curtis Taylor probably doesn't go quite that early. O'Halloran is not a first round lock either.

Clarke? If you mean Jordan Clark, I don't have him in the first round mix.

No foundation according to his club (North Launceston) and a rival AFL scout.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-30/tarryn-thomas-scrutiny/10180022


He won the division 2 MVP and some were saying it was the best Div 2 series by a player ever. He was carrying an injury for some of his games in the Allies and was played out of position for the most of it.

The story translates to: what was said is true, but it shouldn't have been made into a public story and he's still as expected set to feature inside the first round on draft day.

I can't say I consider the original story to be in good taste and it's not a piece I would have felt comfortable releasing. I don't think when talking about draft prospects it's our responsibility to delve into draft prospects personal lives and expose that to the public. That's for AFL clubs to investigate to guide their drafting decisions.

Anything much deeper than a general question of ones work ethic, professionalism or saying they have off-field issues without going into specifics for me anyway is about as far as I feel is roughly that line. That's just morally my personal position anyway.

Back to analysing Thomas' u18 champs. He brought the pressure and smothered possibly a historic number of balls through the carnival. Offensively though I found myself unimpressed - offering no run or drive and not impacting games on that side of the ball.

I found Blakey on performance to be the clearly better performed in those he played this year. With McFadyen and T.Green also clearly better.

Some will be arguing Chayce Jones (though his skills put me off) is the best Tasmanian prospect this year.

 

[bird_man]

He looks like he will on the back of his VFL performances. 195 marks from 18 games is pretty remarkable.

I see him entering the draft mix from the second round but probably going around the third. There is a lot of interest in clubland with a lot of clubs disappointed that they can't take him as a free agent.

Hopefully the Saints are gifted a free hit for a state league player like it has been reported, he would walk into our side with that form.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jazny]

I see Adelaide requiring pick 1 to get Lukosius, I see some clubs trying to leapfrog Adelaide if they only trade for pick 2. Carlton may be able to negotiate to move down to 2 to get their man in Walsh.

Maybe for Carlton it is as simple as something like pick 1 for McGovern and pick 2. With Adelaide and Gold Coast do an exchange that nets Gold Coast x3 first rounders via Adelaide and get that first pick and perhaps a future second rounder. Or some variation of a deal with this thought process in mind.

As for the picks. I don't see Hill going that early. Rankine should be preferred. Curtis Taylor probably doesn't go quite that early. O'Halloran is not a first round lock either.

Clarke? If you mean Jordan Clark, I don't have him in the first round mix.



The story translates to: what was said is true, but it shouldn't have been made into a public story and he's still as expected set to feature inside the first round on draft day.

I can't say I consider the original story to be in good taste and it's not a piece I would have felt comfortable releasing. I don't think when talking about draft prospects it's our responsibility to delve into draft prospects personal lives and expose that to the public. That's for AFL clubs to investigate to guide their drafting decisions.

Anything much deeper than a general question of ones work ethic, professionalism or saying they have off-field issues without going into specifics for me anyway is about as far as I feel is roughly that line. That's just morally my personal position anyway.

Back to analysing Thomas' u18 champs. He brought the pressure and smothered possibly a historic number of balls through the carnival. Offensively though I found myself unimpressed - offering no run or drive and not impacting games on that side of the ball.

I found Blakey on performance to be the clearly better performed in those he played this year. With McFadyen and T.Green also clearly better.

Some will be arguing Chayce Jones (though his skills put me off) is the best Tasmanian prospect this year.

But his div 2 carnival proves he has the offensive skills. I dont know why that level is suddenly ignored when its as good as TAC cup and plenty of players were drafted from div 2 carnivals just two years ago.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Not sure if you've seen this.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-...defenders-named-for-the-nab-afl-draft-combine.

 

[Knightmare]

Hopefully the Saints are gifted a free hit for a state league player like it has been reported, he would walk into our side with that form.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but Collins is headed to the draft.

But his div 2 carnival proves he has the offensive skills. I dont know why that level is suddenly ignored when its as good as TAC cup and plenty of players were drafted from div 2 carnivals just two years ago.

With Thomas, the relevant factor is in Div 1, it was every game he failed to deliver on the offensive side of the ball. It's not a sample of 1-3 games.

One bad game is forgivable, but if you can't do something in a series of consecutive games against the best competition of his age group, he can't be expected to consistently bring that side to his game at AFL level.

Similarly guys who in the TAC Cup and other levels don't bring something often can't be expected at the next level to show that side of their game.

Obviously Thomas can provide run as he did two years back during the u18 champs off half-back, so there is that disclaimer, but he hasn't improved or built upon that side of his game at all.

 

[Knightmare]

Not sure if you've seen this.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-...defenders-named-for-the-nab-afl-draft-combine.

Some good smalls on that list and a lot of them super fast. I also like a few of those state combine invites. Frederick particularly has a great deal of up and go. Hill is dangerous as a forward. Atu is worth rookie listing for Collingwood as a pressure forward.

 

[Jazny]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but Collins is headed to the draft.



With Thomas, the relevant factor is in Div 1, it was every game he failed to deliver on the offensive side of the ball. It's not a sample of 1-3 games.

One bad game is forgivable, but if you can't do something in a series of consecutive games against the best competition of his age group, he can't be expected to consistently bring that side to his game at AFL level.

Similarly guys who in the TAC Cup and other levels don't bring something often can't be expected at the next level to show that side of their game.

Obviously Thomas can provide run as he did two years back during the u18 champs off half-back, so there is that disclaimer, but he hasn't improved or built upon that side of his game at all.

He has improved a lot since he was 16 imo. When he won tassie's MVP as a 16 year old, it wasnt because he was so amazing at 16. He had an okay tournament, but the rest of team were terrible. When he won it as an 18 year old, he won it because he had the best div 2 tournament that some recruiters had ever seen in a team that whitewashed it.

He was carrying an injury for most of the allies games so to only judge him on those four games is kind of unfair. Some recruiters had him in contention for top 3, and I dont think like two months worth of games with a thumb injury and bone bruising proves them wrong. He can always do this

 

[Knightmare]

He has improved a lot since he was 16 imo. When he won tassie's MVP as a 16 year old, it wasnt because he was so amazing at 16. He had an okay tournament, but the rest of team were terrible. When he won it as an 18 year old, he won it because he had the best div 2 tournament that some recruiters had ever seen in a team that whitewashed it.

He was carrying an injury for most of the allies games so to only judge him on those four games is kind of unfair. Some recruiters had him in contention for top 3, and I dont think like two months worth of games with a thumb injury and bone bruising proves them wrong. He can always do this

He is a better ball winner winner now and much better defensively. So I'm not saying his all-around game has not improved.

Only offensively he has regressed.

In the u18 showcase still to come Thomas still has time to change my mind.

 

[Wild Bill]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but Collins is headed to the draft.



With Thomas, the relevant factor is in Div 1, it was every game he failed to deliver on the offensive side of the ball. It's not a sample of 1-3 games.

One bad game is forgivable, but if you can't do something in a series of consecutive games against the best competition of his age group, he can't be expected to consistently bring that side to his game at AFL level.

Similarly guys who in the TAC Cup and other levels don't bring something often can't be expected at the next level to show that side of their game.

Obviously Thomas can provide run as he did two years back during the u18 champs off half-back, so there is that disclaimer, but he hasn't improved or built upon that side of his game at all.

Your prediction on a bid coming before our 1st pick? If it’s likely we have to get rid of it.

 

[bird_man]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but Collins is headed to the draft.

There is talk that Carl, GC and possibly St K may get a free hit at state league players instead of being given a priority pick. Not sure if it will eventuate but it's something that has been proposed.

 

[M Malice]

There is talk that Carl, GC and possibly St K may get a free hit at state league players instead of being given a priority pick. Not sure if it will eventuate but it's something that has been proposed.

Is a good idea. If the Saints were to be given access to state league players the Lions would have to be included as well IMO. We have a far worse record than the Saints over the last few years and were only 2 points in front of them on the ladder this year.

 

[HedgeFund]

Is a good idea. If the Saints were to be given access to state league players the Lions would have to be included as well IMO. We have a far worse record than the Saints over the last few years and were only 2 points in front of them on the ladder this year.

Access to state league players? What’s the big advantage?

Tom Stewart came to Geelong from their backyard via their VFL team anyhow. Bailey Fritsch to Melbourne via Casey. Whoopy-doo.

All state league players are available every year anyhow. Why would any club need “priority access” to them? Thy mainly get nabbed after Rd 4 in the ND and in quite a few of the rookie selections every year. How would “priority access” affect that?

If you want bigger bodies on your list, cut out more dead wood and don’t draft skinny 18 year olds with your later picks.

 

[bird_man]

Is a good idea. If the Saints were to be given access to state league players the Lions would have to be included as well IMO. We have a far worse record than the Saints over the last few years and were only 2 points in front of them on the ladder this year.

Didn't you guys already get a PP a year or two ago though?

I would also take Brisbane's list over ours any day of the week, you guys are clearly heading in the right direction whilst we are going backwards. I wouldn't mind at all if you were given the same, but I think there are reasons reason why your club hasn't really been included in the discussions at this stage.

 

[M Malice]

Access to state league players? What’s the big advantage?

Tom Stewart came to Geelong from their backyard via their VFL team anyhow. Bailey Fritsch to Melbourne via Casey. Whoopy-doo.

All state league players are available every year anyhow. Why would any club need “priority access” to them? Thy mainly get nabbed after Rd 4 in the ND and in quite a few of the rookie selections every year. How would “priority access” affect that?

If you want bigger bodies on your list, cut out more dead wood and don’t draft skinny 18 year olds with your later picks.

Just passing on my opinions on an idea that has been floated by the afl and that if it was in operation the Lions should have the same access. I'm not that invested in it to bother too much about whether it is brought in or not, I like the idea but if it doesn't come in...Meh.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Access to state league players? What’s the big advantage?

...

If you want bigger bodies on your list, cut out more dead wood and don’t draft skinny 18 year olds with your later picks.

The advantage, for the rest of the league, is that it forces poor teams to draft mature bodies as opposed to doing what they've always done, loading up on skinny kids and hoping for the best, ruining careers in the process.

 

[Knightmare]

Your prediction on a bid coming before our 1st pick? If it’s likely we have to get rid of it.

It's up in the air at the moment, but I still consider it likely until I'm hearing strong word there won't be a bid before North's first pick. I'm expecting around 5-8 a bid to come for a rough feel at this stage.

There is talk that Carl, GC and possibly St K may get a free hit at state league players instead of being given a priority pick. Not sure if it will eventuate but it's something that has been proposed.

Interesting if it eventuates.

Those sides need immediate help rather than more kids through the draft which only encourages them to go younger which means their results will be worse.

If I was to weigh in on the best option. I'd say for those teams up for priority picks that they can sign a free agent outside of the salary cap as an incentive towards getting better/more competitive now and making that objective a more realistic one. Teams being awarded priority picks just feels counterproductive towards league-wide competitive balance.

 

[Juice0103]

I am pretty confident that Walsh is a Blue next year

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ... what height is Sam Sturt... he sound like a real bolter... R2 pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare ... what height is Sam Sturt... he sound like a real bolter... R2 pick?

188cm, 79kg.

I can see Sturt going second round. He's rising in a hurry in draft calculations and up my draft board.

I haven't seen him play a bag game. He's Dandenong's most dangerous forward, and they have Bailey Williams who is a serious threat.

 

[Turbocat]

188cm, 79kg.

I can see Sturt going second round. He's rising in a hurry in draft calculations and up my draft board.

I haven't seen him play a bag game. He's Dandenong's most dangerous forward, and they have Bailey Williams who is a serious threat.

Thanks Km.. 188 mid sized? how does he play ... is he like a mid playing forward?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks Km.. 188 mid sized? how does he play ... is he like a mid playing forward?

I spoke about him in my weekly wrap. He plays mid size. Provides a genuine marking target, but is also a very capable crumber and ground level play.

I haven't seen him play any mid. As a forward though, he is a massive threat.

If he can play midfield, and play it well, win the footy. He's probably a first round choice.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Your prediction on a bid coming before our 1st pick? If it’s likely we have to get rid of it.

You could leave it until the draft and have an agreement in place with a side that you expect to finish near you next year. Now that live trading is an option, if a bid comes early you could trade away that first rounder for the other sides future 1st. Allows you to have a bet each way. Keep Tarryn and get a 2019 r1 instead of just Tarryn and the r3 pick that falls out in change.

 

[Giant Strides]

You could leave it until the draft and have an agreement in place with a side that you expect to finish near you next year. Now that live trading is an option, if a bid comes early you could trade away that first rounder for the other sides future 1st.

I believe that you can't trade once a bid is made on a player linked to you. You'd have to sell on rumours on the night.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I believe that you can't trade once a bid is made on a player linked to you. You'd have to sell on rumours on the night.

Ah that would change my outlook somewhat.