Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[saintmagic]

With Gold Coast to lose Lynch as a free agent, keep in mind that pick probably becomes 4.

I'd have a shortlist of two with that pick. Smith as a mid I really like as a fit as he has the contested ball winning power, explosiveness and then skills. Rankine is that second player at that pick as he has that x-factor and can on his day influence games as well as just about any.

Smith I prefer of the two and would also say as a list fit is the better of the two with St Kilda's midfield slow and lacking skill, but I wouldn't say no to Rankine either.

Hi Knightmare,

Just wondering if you see any chance of St Kilda taking a look at Max King that early? Where do you see him landing?

Thanks!

 

[eDPS]

I think a few clubs might be looking for a long-running and skillful wingman. Who would you suggest? Elite speed not necessarily being a requirement.

Will Golds from Oakleigh was very good on the weekend, every time I’ve watched him this year he has impressed.

 

[Knightmare]

I was not the biggest LDU fan coming into the draft, so it will be interesting to see where they end up.

What didn't you like last year with LDU?

Definitely fair. He could well be the highest Canberran ever drafted if he keeps it up.

That said, that's what Jack Powell looked like becoming going into his draft year..

I can't say I had Powell up the top end at any stage.

Green is in that Mills/Heeney conversation as one of the best NSW/ACT prospect in the Academy era. At the same stage, I favour Green's game to the two Sydney boys.

I would argue from what we've seen from AB that his ceiling isn't very far below LDU but his floor is leagues higher. Add to that his obvious leadership and at this stage it has to be AB. As Lemming said, will be interesting to see how they end up

It's all speculation/prediction early days.

Brayshaw having achieved more does have the higher floor. It's the ceiling based on the way he can influence games that makes me think LDU will be the better performer long term.

Hi Knightmare,

Who out of this years crop would you say is most likely (say top 10) to quickly cement themselves as a best 22 player?

Appreciate this year is full of KPPs so may look a little different to a phantom draft.

Smith, Walsh, Rankine, West, Hately and Lukosius in the right situations can play regularly.

Hi Knightmare,

Just wondering if you see any chance of St Kilda taking a look at Max King that early? Where do you see him landing?

Thanks!

I hear Gold Coast like Max King.

I can see Bailey Smith receiving strong consideration by the Saints.

 

[saintmagic]

I hear Gold Coast like Max King.

I can see Bailey Smith receiving strong consideration by the Saints.

Interesting.

If Carlton take Walsh at 1, do you think Gold Coast take King and Lukosius?

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting.

If Carlton take Walsh at 1, do you think Gold Coast take King and Lukosius?

They very well might. They've picked a lot of mids of late.

Unclear whether Carlton hold onto that first pick though. Gold Coast could well move one of those picks also.

So there is a lot of unknown.

 

[Pykie]

I would argue from what we've seen from AB that his ceiling isn't very far below LDU but his floor is leagues higher. Add to that his obvious leadership and at this stage it has to be AB. As Lemming said, will be interesting to see how they end up

And why would that be?

 

[The Grover]

How over rated is Curnow lol

his stats are not that good guys his flashy but thats it

LOL

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

And why would that be?

By the very nature that one has already performed as an inside mid and one has played more games in the two's through some inconsistent performances at AFL level. I dont really want to get into a pissing contest on Knightmares thread which this could quickly turn into. Happy to discuss on DTA board

 

[Pykie]

By the very nature that one has already performed as an inside mid and one has played more games in the two's through some inconsistent performances at AFL level. I dont really want to get into a pissing contest on Knightmares thread which this could quickly turn into. Happy to discuss on DTA board

I don't think the floor of the player as an 18 year old is really relevant to the floor of the player at 25.

 

[HedgeFund]

I don't think the floor of the player as an 18 year old is really relevant to the floor of the player at 25.

Surely it logically follows that neither is the ceiling?

How ironic!

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I've never understood this "floor" or "ceiling" thing.

Surely it's "projection vs production."

 

[Knightmare]

I've never understood this "floor" or "ceiling" thing.

Surely it's "projection vs production."

Floor is worst case scenario, ceiling is best case scenario.

The greatest focus in worst case scenario projections is production. With ceilings, it's considering attributes the player possesses to a much greater extent as well as rate of improvement.

 

[Soups]

Definitely fair. He could well be the highest Canberran ever drafted if he keeps it up.

That said, that's what Jack Powell looked like becoming going into his draft year..

Ripper of a kid. If he had a bit more pace he probably would have been picked up. Hopefully some solid NEAFL over the next couple of years gets him a look in.

 

[HedgeFund]

I've never understood this "floor" or "ceiling" thing.

Surely it's "projection vs production."

I thought projection was what you thought a player might be able to do at the higher level. Production is what’s he actually does at AFL level.

That makes more sense to me.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

I've never understood this "floor" or "ceiling" thing.

Surely it's "projection vs production."

Should chuck in a “walls” thing or I don’t think the “ceiling” argument would stand up.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Floor is worst case scenario, ceiling is best case scenario.

The greatest focus in worst case scenario projections is production. With ceilings, it's considering attributes the player possesses to a much greater extent as well as rate of improvement.

But why use those words?

And to HedgeFund, you were right.
I was trying to put 2 and 2 together and made myself a fool.

Maybe platform or foundation AND projection would be better.

 

[Knightmare]

Should chuck in a “walls” thing or I don’t think the “ceiling” argument would stand up.

"Walls" would be a good term for probable/predicted outcome.

But why use those words?

And to HedgeFund, you were right.
I was trying to put 2 and 2 together and made myself a fool.

Maybe platform or foundation AND projection would be better.

It's the American terminology with a thinking of top (ceiling) and floor (bottom) outcome.

I've never had issue with the terminology and have just become accustomed to it.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Floor and ceiling makes perfect sense, I'm not sure where the confusion is stemming from, other than that such projections are guesswork at best - and of course the floor for any player is no higher than a string of bad concussions and an early retirement.

 

[weetert]

Knightmare

What happened to the midfielder, draft eligible last year, who was not picked up due to behavioral problems? People on here were saying he could've been top 20 talent-wise...any truth in that?

 

[HedgeFund]

Knightmare

What happened to the midfielder, draft eligible last year, who was not picked up due to behavioral problems? People on here were saying he could've been top 20 talent-wise...any truth in that?

If you’re thinking Tyrone Hayes, he’s played 9 games for Gippsland as an over ager / 19 year old. Last match was 28 July 2018 so he has been pretty consistent in getting on the park. Hawthorn Next Gen Academy. Definitely worth considering by the Hawks IMO.

 

[Turky]

Hey knightmare I have no idea about the bidding system. But do you think the Eagles will have to use their first pick (received from Gold Coast) on the Eagles academy player Jarrod Cameron?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Turbocat]

I hear Gold Coast like Max King.

...

more than his brother ...? Any idea if they would go the guts ..and take both? For for the front and one for the back?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

What happened to the midfielder, draft eligible last year, who was not picked up due to behavioral problems? People on here were saying he could've been top 20 talent-wise...any truth in that?

Tyrone Hayes. He's playing for Gippsland. Hasn't starred but has shown glimpses. Hawthorn Academy if they want him.

Rookie chance.

Would he have been top 20 last year if not for the issues? Definitely a talent and some spoke about him going that high. Preseason I thought he was closer to 30.

Hey knightmare I have no idea about the bidding system. But do you think the Eagles will have to use their first pick (received from Gold Coast) on the Eagles academy player Jarrod Cameron?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

No chance.

I rate Cameron that highly. A 3rd round bid is more likely around the mark with Cameron.

 

[Knightmare]

more than his brother ...? Any idea if they would go the guts ..and take both? For for the front and one for the back?

I'm not sure why Gold Coast would want Ben unless they move back down the order. And they may. But I'm hearing Max with the intent to replace Lynch with one of their assumed two top three picks.

 

[Cleric]

SA schools final is on youtube at the moment. Plenty of SA state guys on display. Sparrow, Rankine, Liko, Gould, Pickett, Dudley, Edwards etc.