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Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac
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I expect GWS to trade pick 6 & have at least 2 clubs lined up for a trade. Either for a future first & late this year picks for points; OR later first round picks as you have listed.
You don’t pass on Quality players and Greene is that. It would be painful for them to watch him star elsewhere, especially at Sydney, while waiting for Jackson to develop his ruck skills and get stronger.
Knightmare
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I don't see GWS going down that route. The reason being is GWS moved picks 12 and 18 to move up to 6 and lost points in the process in doing so. They'd be trading for a worse draft hand than they started with.
GWS may consider moving some of their 2020 picks to move back into this draft after whatever happens with Green happens. If they do anything, that's more what I see happening.
Then it's a decision from there of either Green or Jackson with that first pick is how I'm currently seeing their calculation.
It's sounding like Pickett is firmly in the first round mix now. Appears a 10-30 choice with a lot more interest apparent than I had imagined a week or more ago.
I see it playing out like this.
GWS offer Pick 6 & 2020 1st to Melb for Pick 3. They may reject as they get the best kid outside the top 2 and the drop to 6 may make them miss out on the kid they want. I don’t think they bid on Green, they have enough inside mids and the risk of GWS not matching might be to big.
GWS then offer the same deal to Adelaide, this time it’s accepted if Adelaide don’t have interest in Jackson which doubt they do with Riley Obrien just starting to show his worth. They see this as getting an extra 1st round pick (which they need to replenish their list) for only 1 spot down in the draft as they have no intention of drafting Jackson.
GWS then take Jackson.
Sydney bid Green Pick 5. GWS March. Sydney. Take whoever.
Adelaide use Pick 6. They may want to take Stephens the Adelaide boy so it might not be that much of an issue with them.
Melb Pick 3: Young/Flanders
GWS Pick 4: Jackson (trade from Ade)
GWS Pick 5: Green (matched Syd bid)
Syd Pick 6: Ash/Flanders/Serong
Ade Pick 7: Stephens/Ash/Serong
GWS offer Pick 6 & 2020 1st to Melb for Pick 3. They may reject as they get the best kid outside the top 2 and the drop to 6 may make them miss out on the kid they want. I don’t think they bid on Green, they have enough inside mids and the risk of GWS not matching might be to big.
GWS then offer the same deal to Adelaide, this time it’s accepted if Adelaide don’t have interest in Jackson which doubt they do with Riley Obrien just starting to show his worth. They see this as getting an extra 1st round pick (which they need to replenish their list) for only 1 spot down in the draft as they have no intention of drafting Jackson.
GWS then take Jackson.
Sydney bid Green Pick 5. GWS March. Sydney. Take whoever.
Adelaide use Pick 6. They may want to take Stephens the Adelaide boy so it might not be that much of an issue with them.
Melb Pick 3: Young/Flanders
GWS Pick 4: Jackson (trade from Ade)
GWS Pick 5: Green (matched Syd bid)
Syd Pick 6: Ash/Flanders/Serong
Ade Pick 7: Stephens/Ash/Serong
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If GWS do that deal they would end up with around negative 770 points for 2020 which should come off their 2020 first rounder, but if they have traded that pick I guess it's a quirk of the system and it comes off their 2nd rounder and probably 3rd rounder???
Knightmare
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From what I understand, GWS have already made offers for Melbourne's pick 3 but have been unable despite offers to acquire it during the trade period. It is believed that pick 6 and a 2020 first was offered for pick 3.
In Melbourne's situation re. Green. Like with GWS, Melbourne's greatest need is hardly another ball winning mid, but Green is so great that he's one where if I'm picking for either club I'm taking him and worrying about other needs later.
Melbourne feel like they'll be choosing between Green/Jackson/Young. Adelaide should bid on Green if he's there and I fully expect them to, so I don't see a Green to 5 scenario happening at this stage.
I agree but still think Melb take Young who they really want but will miss out on in the GWS trade.
Adelaide will then need to decide on Green who GWS will match anyway or their next best plus a 2020 1st. This is why I think Adelaide will take the offer.
I
I just don’t see it. This approach sees them as taking TWO picks (Green + Young?) in TWO years. Even if they trade out someone next year it leaves them way too skinny at the draft table for mine.
Maybe they moved up to get jackson and have 2 years to devlop him before jacobs is done.
I see it as a chance they dont match green.. there midfield is so stacked its crazy, and with very little ruck stocks..
kickthething
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I believe my friend Terry Wallet has it worked out.
Plan A: get Jackson at 6.
Plan B: trade down with Cats/Freo/Gc anyone and get a pick back after matching on Green.
Trading up gave them a ‘chance’ at Jackson they wouldn’t have had if they’d stayed at 12 and 18. They’ve lost nothing if they trade back down to 14 and 17 with Cats.
So well worth a shot and frankly good strategy by GWS.
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How many players get invited to the draft ? Is it the whole first round last year Brisbane invited Ely Smith who was picked at 21
Makes it seem more like they wont match given 8 players will be given up / move up and match that is.
They would get enough of Adelaide's later picks thrown in this year to match the Green bid and avoid a deficit.
6 and a future first for 4, 37 and 49 gives GWS one more point than they need to match a bid at 5. That values the future pick at 17.
GWS get two top talents, Adelaide trade two mid draft picks for an extra first, and still have a fair chance at getting who they wanted at four plus three more picks inside 50.
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Not a hope in hell Adelaide do that deal. You’re doing a straight points trade. There would have to be a points benefit for Crows. Especially that pick being (a) a future pick (b) in a horribly compromised draft.
Knightmare
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What I'm thinking with Adelaide (and I think they'll bid on Green first if still on the board), but assuming GWS match, I'm looking at probably Flanders as their target. I'm also seeing Flanders as Sydney's likely target if available, so Adelaide may look for a decent upgrade if it means they're not getting their preferred guy at 4.
Dylan Stephens, Lachlan Ash, Brodie Kemp and Cody Weightman have been among those linked to Carlton at 9.
(a) Points are irrelevant to Adelaide.
(b) Any club would trade a late second and mid third for a future first.
It all hinges on whether Adelaide are happy at 6 rather than 4, and if they're into someone like Dylan Stephens who should still be there, they might well be.
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But you had pick one.
Did we, sorry force of habit been using that cliché for years now.
Thing is they can prob don't have to add in all those extra picks..
If gws want to move up so much they have to pay a premium
If Adelaide have excess late picks, it’s here nor there if they include them in a trade or not.
On the Brisbane board, one person proposed the trade of 16, 21 and 34 for pick 6, if GWS are unsuccessful in trading up.
We have two, to many picks as it is. Two academy kids we are keen on drafting that probably don’t get bid on until after pick 30.
Our head of football, David Noble has said picks 16 and 21 are on the table for a top 10 pick. And 34 is on the table for a future second round pick.
If we can’t trade out pick 34 for a future second round pick, may as well offer our top 3 picks to get as high as we can.
GWS can give back pick 40 along with pick 6 if it means they end up with to many picks themselves.
16 and 21 will match a bid on Green at pick 4 and generate enough residual points to match a later bid on their other academy kid, Liam Delahunty. And they still have pick 34 to draft another kid.
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If i was Adelaide i would want a future first. Having multiple 1s next years will help them to try trading up to get hometown boy Riley thilthorpe because we all know Adelaide's record of losing kpp's to the go home factor.
GWS won’t care.
They’ll just pick academy kids with later picks, and can carry over a 2020 draft deficit in to 2021.
They have Liam Delahunty, a KPF rated in the 40 to 50 range this year. They have Tom Greens younger brother coming through as well.
They’re stacked with enough top end talent, that they can afford to skip one draft (2020) if it means that can target an extra top end talent this year, that they wouldn’t have a chance at next year anyway.
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