Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the reply, mate.

That may be the case, although I think you are underrating Zurhaar and maybe even Garner (although he can't stay on the park), but even if he was it still wouldn't seem to make much sense from a list build perspective to have so many players of the same position with limited immediate midfield capabilities on the list. It wouldn't represent good balance imo, but like you say he might just be too good to pass up. I like your De Koning selection, though as we are in need of a young KPD. Hopefully Port do take him, meaning that someone who may fit our list profile more slides to us.

Zurhaar is good.

Garner I don't hold much hope out for.

My picks will be quite a bit different next update it's fair to say.

 

[Warhorse]

The cats did do a similar thing with nakia

We traded away 2x1st round picks? News to me

 

[THE_GUN]

We traded away 2x1st round picks? News to me

Sorry it was 14 +35

so 1st and 2nd rounder for a 4 spot upgrade - Must be getting old

 

[troyjones2525]

KM does GWS definitely take Young if Melb take Jackson? Could they go with Ash instead as a half back to replace Shaw?

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[THE_GUN]

KM does GWS definitely take Young if Melb take Jackson? Could they go with Ash instead as a half back to replace Shaw?

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They would be mad not to imo , Shaw replacement ...........Done

 

[Knightmare]

KM does GWS definitely take Young if Melb take Jackson? Could they go with Ash instead as a half back to replace Shaw?

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Other than Rowell and Anderson I don't feel it's wise just yet to talk in definites.

eg. I would be surprised if Melbourne bid on Green, but it's not out of the question they change their mind.

My thinking with GWS (assuming Melbourne take Jackson at 3 which at this stage is sounding more likely than not) is GWS take Young with a view to him replacing Shaw, who looks like he is most likely entering his final season.

GWS have a good number or running players but having someone who can play deep, lockdown opposition forwards and take the kickouts. That seems like what GWS need most in defence.

Ash is plausible and GWS could benefit from him also, but I consider it against the odds that he would be their choice. Sydney at 5 after they make a bid on Green is the earliest I see Ash plausibly landing now, though I'm thinking he is more one in the conversation than the guy Sydney plan to take either.

 

[ray8182]

Other than Rowell and Anderson I don't feel it's wise just yet to talk in definites.

eg. I would be surprised if Melbourne bid on Green, but it's not out of the question they change their mind.

My thinking with GWS (assuming Melbourne take Jackson at 3 which at this stage is sounding more likely than not) is GWS take Young with a view to him replacing Shaw, who looks like he is most likely entering his final season.

GWS have a good number or running players but having someone who can play deep, lockdown opposition forwards and take the kickouts. That seems like what GWS need most in defence.

Ash is plausible and GWS could benefit from him also, but I consider it against the odds that he would be their choice. Sydney at 5 after they make a bid on Green is the earliest I see Ash plausibly landing now, though I'm thinking he is more one in the conversation than the guy Sydney plan to take either.

Gws are a very slow team since Scully and Sheil left. They desperately need someone to break the lines and carry the ball. I’m not sure they do have enough running players. Williams is a defender that is used to add run to a slow midfield and Whitfield does run and distribute the ball. Outside of that l don’t see enough speed.

Young is all quality and the better player right now but l personally think Ash would have more of an impact at Gws with his speed. Ash could free up Williams for the midfield. I will admit pick 4 looks high for Ash.

Where do you think Gws is going to get its run and speed in 2020 because it was severely lacking in 2019.




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[Islanddoggy]

Hi KM, just wondering why you don't rate Bergman in the top 20? lack of performance? I have read a fair fit that he may have some great upside? Using Weightman as an example who is better now? who do you think will be in 3 years and career wise? Cheers

 

[smashbox gill]

Not top 2, but I think from 3 onwards Kemp would be firmly in the mix. 3-8 would have been entirely possible. He kept getting better and better during the U18 Champs and going big in big moments. So signs were looking really good.

Thanks fly the info! Do you see him developing as a mid at AFL level based on what you saw this year?

 

[conVINCEd]

I see both key defence and outside midfield as Adelaide's two greatest needs. With Talia nearing 30 ...

Yes, Talia is closer to the end than the beginning but there seems a consensus among journos and footy supporters that he’s ancient - the Hard Ball Gets podcast earlier this year even proclaimed him as being 31.

Daniel Talia turned 28 last month.

 

[Knightmare]

Gws are a very slow team since Scully and Sheil left. They desperately need someone to break the lines and carry the ball. I’m not sure they do have enough running players. Williams is a defender that is used to add run to a slow midfield and Whitfield does run and distribute the ball. Outside of that l don’t see enough speed.

Young is all quality and the better player right now but l personally think Ash would have more of an impact at Gws with his speed. Ash could free up Williams for the midfield. I will admit pick 4 looks high for Ash.

Where do you think Gws is going to get its run and speed in 2020 because it was severely lacking in 2019.

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I see GWS as having more so endurance running beasts. Whitfield, Kelly. Shaw while old still runs some and Williams obviously has speed.

I see spots for both Young and Ash in their back half. Ultimately I'm seeing that as where GWS are weakest. What they don't get this year they'll need to grab next year. Or otherwise they may look to someone as a rookie to get that other piece.

Hi KM, just wondering why you don't rate Bergman in the top 20? lack of performance? I have read a fair fit that he may have some great upside? Using Weightman as an example who is better now? who do you think will be in 3 years and career wise? Cheers

Ultimately I wouldn't be selecting either inside the top 20. I'd rather trade back and secure a Mahony in the 30s ahead of Weightman if after a small forward and Bergman I may go against the grain on but what intrigues me most is his scope to develop into an intercept marking and long kicking defender. And if I'm after a general defender I prefer Gould who can be had in the 20s.

Maybe the Dogs can work a trade with Brisbane for picks 21 and 34 to get the pair instead? Or that's what I'd be thinking if I was told it's either Weightman/Bergman or someone similar.

Bergman is low production and not much of a contested ball winner. He's just outside my top 20 and I'm toying with moving him up to 20 in my final power rankings. Standing at 21 at the moment. Could he be that 20th guy? Rivers? For me they're in the same conversation with Rivers having better midfield capabilities and being the classier ball user while Bergman a potentially really impressive intercept marking threat the way he can take grabs and reads it.

Weightman I rate relatively lower and have more in the late 20s in my power rankings.

Weightman I feel has greater scope to play better sooner, relative to Bergman, though Bergman in the long run conditional on a move to defence I think with a year behind him in the position can develop past Weightman.

Thanks fly the info! Do you see him developing as a mid at AFL level based on what you saw this year?

Kemp gives clubs options. I want to see him developed into a midfielder at AFL level and have him rest forward - he has shown the attributes to suggest he can make that transition more perminant, but depending on the club that pick him, they may see KPP or flankers.

Yes, Talia is closer to the end than the beginning but there seems a consensus among journos and footy supporters that he’s ancient - the Hard Ball Gets podcast earlier this year even proclaimed him as being 31.

Daniel Talia turned 28 last month.

I am aware Talia is 28. I don't prescribe to the notion that retirement age is 30, but 28 is nearing 30. That's not longer mid 20s. He's in the back end of his career.

Adelaide are now in rebuilding mode and with key position players normally taking four years to develop into consistent footballers, and getting those 4, maybe 5 years or more if possible under Talia developing, now is as good a time as any to add a quality young key defender to maximise their development and get those long term pieces in place.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Can’t believe a grand final team are getting two top 5 picks!! It’s insanity!

Why? We’ve lost players that we developed to get the additional currency.

Richmond got Lynch for threepence but nothing to see there.

 

[Misunderstood]

KM,

Who do you see pickett going to? and do you see the dogs using that pick 13 which looks to be -15 after matched bids but every way points to us taking him. Is weightman a better footballer? i just thought id ask for your opinion on draft. I know you have mentioned previously getting down the draft order but would pickett be a reach?
Cheers

 

[SOS must stay]

If I was a recruiter, I would be taking Jackson at pick 1. Looks an unbelievable prospect.

 

[Knightmare]

KM,

Who do you see pickett going to? and do you see the dogs using that pick 13 which looks to be -15 after matched bids but every way points to us taking him. Is weightman a better footballer? i just thought id ask for your opinion on draft. I know you have mentioned previously getting down the draft order but would pickett be a reach?
Cheers

I have Port Adelaide at this stage, but they're one of a few teams that could take him. He looks like he'll go somewhere inside the top 20.

I find myself favouring Jack Mahony to both Weightman and Pickett if I want a small forward, and Mahony probably goes late second round.

Weightman is the more threatening and stronger mark and provides heavier scoreboard impact but Pickett brings forward pressure and that real perception that 'he's there' more than anyone else in this pool. Weightman is the more complete player, but Pickett can still have an impact, he'll just find even less of the ball.

I'm mostly heard Weightman and Bergman linked to the Dogs with others if they slide among the other possibles, or so it feels like at this stage.

If I was a recruiter, I would be taking Jackson at pick 1. Looks an unbelievable prospect.

A big call.

I'm fully aware Jackson probably goes third, but if I'm a recruiter, I wouldn't pick Jackson inside the top-10. He's sub 200cm, lacks a second position and hasn't impacted games as much as a number of other prospects in my view. He has scope to develop and I feel he'll be a ruckman at AFL level. I like his rate of improvement and improvement over the second half (or I'd be a lot lower still on him). I see Jackson as more suitable for selection 11-15, than top-10 or even top-5.

I find it difficult to justify anyone ahead of Rowell/Anderson/Green. They're all so impressive. Flanders when used forward has made me think and did last year, and Kemp pre-injury grew on me also with his upside impressive. McAsey's upside is interesting and Robertson looks an exceptional mid. They're others I like.

 

[SOS must stay]

I have Port Adelaide at this stage, but they're one of a few teams that could take him. He looks like he'll go somewhere inside the top 20.

I find myself favouring Jack Mahony to both Weightman and Pickett if I want a small forward, and Mahony probably goes late second round.

Weightman is the more threatening and stronger mark and provides heavier scoreboard impact but Pickett brings forward pressure and that real perception that 'he's there' more than anyone else in this pool. Weightman is the more complete player, but Pickett can still have an impact, he'll just find even less of the ball.

I'm mostly heard Weightman and Bergman linked to the Dogs with others if they slide among the other possibles, or so it feels like at this stage.



A big call.

I'm fully aware Jackson probably goes third, but if I'm a recruiter, I wouldn't pick Jackson inside the top-10. He's sub 200cm, lacks a second position and hasn't impacted games as much as a number of other prospects in my view. He has scope to develop and I feel he'll be a ruckman at AFL level. I like his rate of improvement and improvement over the second half (or I'd be a lot lower still on him). I see Jackson as more suitable for selection 11-15, than top-10 or even top-5.

I find it difficult to justify anyone ahead of Rowell/Anderson/Green. They're all so impressive. Flanders when used forward has made me think and did last year, and Kemp pre-injury grew on me also with his upside impressive. McAsey's upside is interesting and Robertson looks an exceptional mid. They're others I like.

Thanks for the reply!

I think with his basketball background and only recently deciding on AFL means there's plenty of scope for him to improve on the areas he is lacking in (running patterns, ball finding etc)

Looking at what he can do though, he has attributes I've never seen from a 199cm player with his frame. He sidesteps like a midfielder, in close his movement looks exactly like a midfielder. The mobile ruck type players he is being compared to (Grundy, English, Kreuzer) look like weird units with their movement. Jackson moves more like Cripps than Grundy, he looks like a midfielder playing in the ruck rather than a ruck playing in the midfield.

 

[Swiggy]

Hi Knightmare I see Sharp toured freo yesterday. Is 10 to big of a stretch?

 

[andleanback]

Hearing Justin longmuire on SEN it sounds like they’ll be 100% taking Lachie ash if he’s available

 

[Couch Coach]

Knightmare,
I'm interested on your thoughts on Hugo Ralphsmith.
I note in the Bigfooty Phantom he slid to 47 (so you passed on him at 35). In your current phantom he is picked up at 26 but he missed the last one. Twomey has him at 31. He is ranked as 15 - 40 on the AFL Draft hub.

He seems to be placed all over the shop. Can you provide more info as to strengths, weaknesses, were you rank him, etc.

Thanks for your time CC.

 

[Roksman]

Hi Knightmare I see Sharp toured freo yesterday. Is 10 to big of a stretch?

Really? I find it odd that a draftee would tour any club given the lack of control a club has in selecting their target in the mid / latter part of the draft. I'm not calling you a liar but I would've thought the most clubs do is meet at the draftees house / a restaurant / cafe. If he indeed meet Freo at their club - I find that very strange.... and unlikely.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Hearing Justin longmuire on SEN it sounds like they’ll be 100% taking Lachie ash if he’s available

That’s strange, as Ash’s name was never mentioned in the interview!

 

[RUNVS]

That’s strange, as Ash’s name was never mentioned in the interview!

Maybe they were talking about the bushfires and "andleanback" assumed they really like ash.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Really? I find it odd that a draftee would tour any club given the lack of control a club has in selecting their target in the mid / latter part of the draft. I'm not calling you a liar but I would've thought the most clubs do is meet at the draftees house / a restaurant / cafe. If he indeed meet Freo at their club - I find that very strange.... and unlikely.

Ben King toured the Bulldogs facilities in the days before the draft last year - and there was photo evidence. It happens literally all the time, but only with draftees who are a realistic chance of being taken. The Dogs planned on taking King (he said so in an interview) if he was there at our pick, but he was taken the pick before which is why we ended up with Smith. I'd say it looks like Freo are considering Sharp with their Pick 10, especially if Ash is gone. They need that outside run, and Sharp looks like a fantastic prospect and one of the best outside runners in the draft

 

[Roksman]

Ben King toured the Bulldogs facilities in the days before the draft last year - and there was photo evidence. It happens literally all the time, but only with draftees who are a realistic chance of being taken. The Dogs planned on taking King (he said so in an interview) if he was there at our pick, but he was taken the pick before which is why we ended up with Smith. I'd say it looks like Freo are considering Sharp with their Pick 10, especially if Ash is gone. They need that outside run, and Sharp looks like a fantastic prospect and one of the best outside runners in the draft

Yes, that's why I mentioned mid - later picks... King is understandable as he was always a top 10 pick.

If Freo are considering Sharp in the top 10 then that would be a story in itself.

 

[Joao]

If we want Sharp we should adjust our picks either now or live as I don't reckon we'd have to use a top 20 on him.