Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Lach72]

Nope. No chance of that given next year is a heavily compromised draft.

How about 14/24 for pick 7??

That way you get an extra first round selection in this year making it 3 first rounders instead of 2

top ten pick is still a top ten pick.
Wouldn’t give up 7 this year. We have traded down in the past but can’t with Henry bid and so many needs

 

[geelong_crazy26]

top ten pick is still a top ten pick.
Wouldn’t give up 7 this year. We have traded down in the past but can’t with Henry bid and so many needs

Consider 14/17 for 7?? Definitely worth a look and more than enough for a Henry bid + picks.

I imagine if not your pick 7 we might look to load that package up with anyone from picks 4-9 depending on who is available we like on the night.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, How many of those Port Adelaide picks do you think they would give up if the Swans had pick 5 on offer (If any).

Would be interesting if we had multiple first round picks rather than just the one near the top.

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Sydney would likely ask for picks 12, 14 and 18. They'd probably do it if they really like someone they think will be there at 12 and feel they're of similar quality to whoever they would get at five.

At of course that's too much for Port Adelaide to give up because the points value is equivalent to move than pick 1. But with the options at 14/18 uninspiring and not all that much better in the 20s, other than clubs seeking points it's hard seeing clubs desperate to get that combination of picks.

Anyone think maginness gets bid on before Hawks first pick at 11?

Plausible but against the odds. I see a bid coming more mid to late teens at this stage until I hear a club suggesting they intend to bid that early.

Knightmare no chance of robertson falling to the cats?? We are really disliking what we are getting over on our board with your phantom picks

Coming from information from chatting to clubs or your own gut feel??

Unlikely Robertson makes it through to the Cats. It would likely rely on a bid on Henry coming before Fremantle's second selection and some clubs having some other preferences.

Geelong typically are good at keeping tight lipped and rarely play to the expected script, sometimes taking someone unexpected. Bergman I currently have there due to the talk of him going somewhere inside the top 15.

Hey nightmare what’s the Knock all of sudden from all clubs on Gould? Back to back all Australian who only improved his draft stocks imo with his performances in the SANFL this year.

I’m hoping the Suns grab him if he gets to 20 as we could do with a good distributor out of defence and more depth with our backs.


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Weight/athletic testing are what is puttnig off some clubs.

I'd strongly recommend Gould to Gold Coast. He's a real enforcer and someone who from season one can have an impact and generate meaningful drive from defence.

We were already in the top 10 pre Howard trade. Why would we give up two firsts to get to 10 again?

I suspect more-so the later picks get bundled and Port try to move those up in deals with those clubs with Academy and father-son choices predominantly.

Since we'll very possibly have Frawley, Frost, Hartley, Kosi, O'Brien and McEvoy all on our list who have played or can play as tall defenders in recent times, I really can't see Hawthorn taking Fisher McAsey like most seem to be speculating. If your team needs a tall defender and you have a pick in the 8-16 range i'd say you are a much better chance of taking than the Hawks are.

The key understanding with those guys is age. Frawley and McEvoy likely don't have many years left and Hartley and Frost are in the second half of their careers also. With KPPs typically needing 4 years to be properly developed, by which time Frawley/Hartley/Frost probably are all respectively done anyway at his position.

 

[Lach72]

Consider 14/17 for 7?? Definitely worth a look and more than enough for a Henry bid + picks.

I imagine if not your pick 7 we might look to load that package up with anyone from picks 4-9 depending on who is available we like on the night.

carlton might take it
I’d consider 10 for 14 and 17 if a Henry bid comes before 10

otherwise I’d be trying to get 15 and 20 from GC

 

[cougar000]

Do you think if Melbourne do take Jackson at 3 would they take Robertson at 8 if was still there?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think if Melbourne do take Jackson at 3 would they take Robertson at 8 if was still there?

Probably not.

I think Jackson/Green/Young/Ash are the players Melbourne like in some order. Melbourne would favour the run of Ash, with their outside stocks and drive from defence weaknesses.

I think if Young/Jackson/Ash all gone by their second choice they'd more likely go a forward after missing out on Jamie Elliott.

 

[ferrisb]

KM/others: Who are the best prospects to play as a small defender? This is something Carlton has lacked for years.

And I mean small defender. Not someone who will transition to the midfield. Not someone who can play HBF/wing. Someone who will stop the opposition from scoring goals...

I feel like these types get overlooked but are really valuable at AFL level. Or am I missing the point? The best prospects don't play back-pocket / lockdown footballer and most AFL small defenders are re-purposed mids/flankers....?

 

[Knightmare]

KM/others: Who are the best prospects to play as a small defender? This is something Carlton has lacked for years.

And I mean small defender. Not someone who will transition to the midfield. Not someone who can play HBF/wing. Someone who will stop the opposition from scoring goals...

I feel like these types get overlooked but are really valuable at AFL level. Or am I missing the point? The best prospects don't play back-pocket / lockdown footballer and most AFL small defenders are re-purposed mids/flankers....?

Hayden Young is the guy. He could play midfield, but he is seen as purely a defender and whoever drafts him likely will do so with that vision in mind because he is not only that playmaker by foot but is effective shutting down opposition forwards and plays a fairly tight-checking game.

Brock Smith is seen as that other reliable general defender and he can play on smalls/mediums and if needed taller opponents. He can intercept some but also makes life hard for opposition forwards and should also be a career defender.

Often it seems mids/forwards transition to defence - particularly those good kicks and readers/marks with 1v1 capabilities.

 

[Gunf]

carlton might take it
I’d consider 10 for 14 and 17 if a Henry bid comes before 10

otherwise I’d be trying to get 15 and 20 from GC

14 and 24 maybe but not 14 and 17

 

[ferrisb]

"We rated him a lot higher than where we got him"

I think Carlton said that about Weitering and Walsh

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Sydney would likely ask for picks 12, 14 and 18. They'd probably do it if they really like someone they think will be there at 12 and feel they're of similar quality to whoever they would get at five.

At of course that's too much for Port Adelaide to give up because the points value is equivalent to move than pick 1. But with the options at 14/18 uninspiring and not all that much better in the 20s, other than clubs seeking points it's hard seeing clubs desperate to get that combination of picks.



Plausible but against the odds. I see a bid coming more mid to late teens at this stage until I hear a club suggesting they intend to bid that early.



Unlikely Robertson makes it through to the Cats. It would likely rely on a bid on Henry coming before Fremantle's second selection and some clubs having some other preferences.

Geelong typically are good at keeping tight lipped and rarely play to the expected script, sometimes taking someone unexpected. Bergman I currently have there due to the talk of him going somewhere inside the top 15.



Weight/athletic testing are what is puttnig off some clubs.

I'd strongly recommend Gould to Gold Coast. He's a real enforcer and someone who from season one can have an impact and generate meaningful drive from defence.



I suspect more-so the later picks get bundled and Port try to move those up in deals with those clubs with Academy and father-son choices predominantly.



The key understanding with those guys is age. Frawley and McEvoy likely don't have many years left and Hartley and Frost are in the second half of their careers also. With KPPs typically needing 4 years to be properly developed, by which time Frawley/Hartley/Frost probably are all respectively done anyway at his position.

Port are going to need those late picks for points for Mead.

We wont be trading to upgrade to a higher pick with less points (which is what those teams with academy/FS would want) unless it is to upgrade one of our picks that is before Mead.

Can you really see a club downgrading their first rounder for such low picks?

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[Mojorisin]

Port are going to need those late picks for points for Mead.

We wont be trading to upgrade to a higher pick with less points (which is what those teams with academy/FS would want) unless it is to upgrade one of our picks that is before Mead.

Can you really see a club downgrading their first rounder for such low picks?

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He said it's to much for port to give up.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

14 and 24 maybe but not 14 and 17

The problem with any deal with this us is that we don’t make full use of the picks because of Henry bids.

14 and 17 is actually 17 and 22 since 14 goes to a Henry where it would have been 22 (and the junk picks we have behind it that we won’t be using if we do the trade).

14 and 17 is overs for 10 but 17 and 22 is probably unders. Assuming you can get them to budge, your picks will be worth more to Melbourne and Carlton.

I do think you’ll have to give up 14 and 17 to move up though. There is now 3 clubs with multiple top 20 picks actively trying to get into the top 10, it’s a sellers market

 

[year of the cat]

The problem with any deal with this us is that we don’t make full use of the picks because of Henry bids.

14 and 17 is actually 17 and 22 since 14 goes to a Henry where it would have been 22 (and the junk picks we have behind it that we won’t be using if we do the trade).

14 and 17 is overs for 10 but 17 and 22 is probably unders. Assuming you can get them to budge, your picks will be worth more to Melbourne and Carlton.

I do think you’ll have to give up 14 and 17 to move up though. There is now 3 clubs with multiple top 20 picks actively trying to get into the top 10, it’s a sellers market

Or alternatively our future first from WC which I think will be offered first with 14.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

carlton might take it
I’d consider 10 for 14 and 17 if a Henry bid comes before 10

otherwise I’d be trying to get 15 and 20 from GC

Nah... pass.. u should of taken pick 6.
U might have a chance with the Suns as they are playing with the house's money.

 

[manny100]

Interesting preferences by Ds you have listed. If all gone by their pick 8 and they want a small forward desperately and another club with 2 good picks really wants a player still available at the Ds pick 8 could see a swap.
GC picks 15, 20. Port 12, 16 and 18. Freo 10 and 22. Cats 17 and 24.
All depends on how clubs rate the players available at 8 and how badly they want that player.

 

[briztoon]

Anyone think maginness gets bid on before Hawks first pick at 11?

No.

 

[briztoon]

Nope. No chance of that given next year is a heavily compromised draft.

How about 14/24 for pick 7??

That way you get an extra first round selection in this year making it 3 first rounders instead of 2

Where do you see Fremantle finishing next year?

There’s probably one nga kid in the first 5 picks and another in the next 5 picks.

It’s not the first 10 picks that are heavily compromised. It’s the later half of the first round, and really the second and third rounds.

 

[Macros]

Williams is difficult to pass on and arguably is an upgrade on those guys, minus perhaps Thomas.

In saying that with the Port Adelaide trade with Brisbane things might change with Port Adelaide one of a number of clubs believed to have Williams on their shortlist.

O'Neill I expect to receive consideration for that pick. Brisbane may take O'Neill a couple of choices later if North don't with one of those picks in the 20s.

Thanks for the reply, mate.

That may be the case, although I think you are underrating Zurhaar and maybe even Garner (although he can't stay on the park), but even if he was it still wouldn't seem to make much sense from a list build perspective to have so many players of the same position with limited immediate midfield capabilities on the list. It wouldn't represent good balance imo, but like you say he might just be too good to pass up. I like your De Koning selection, though as we are in need of a young KPD. Hopefully Port do take him, meaning that someone who may fit our list profile more slides to us.

 

[TheGrizz]

Didn't Zerk-Thatcher get towelled by Cam McCarthy in round 22?

Seeing it was his debut game and he was a late inclusion after Hooker went down two hours before the game, i thought he did ok.

His VFL form - whatever weight that holds - has been very promising

 

[Untouchables22]

With the Crows/GWS pick swap, how does this effect the order of the Top 10 picks?

Two of Ash/Young/Jackson pretty much locked into the Top 4 now?

 

[Knightmare]

Port are going to need those late picks for points for Mead.

We wont be trading to upgrade to a higher pick with less points (which is what those teams with academy/FS would want) unless it is to upgrade one of our picks that is before Mead.

Can you really see a club downgrading their first rounder for such low picks?

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If an early 20s bid is made Port will need all of picks 52, 55, 66, 67, 68 and 72. I tend to think it will be closer to pick 30. But Port still have a good number of toys to play with and can include one or two of those in a deal as a sweetner if needed to move up one of those earlier picks.

Interesting preferences by Ds you have listed. If all gone by their pick 8 and they want a small forward desperately and another club with 2 good picks really wants a player still available at the Ds pick 8 could see a swap.
GC picks 15, 20. Port 12, 16 and 18. Freo 10 and 22. Cats 17 and 24.
All depends on how clubs rate the players available at 8 and how badly they want that player.

I see the Dees holding firm on pick 8. I get the sense that no matter the way the draft goes, that's the pick they want/feel comfortable taking.

Maybe Fremantle's pick 10 + something else if they think their target from 8 gets through, but they're probably going to be reluctant traders given how aggressively they worked their way up so high with that pick.

 

[Knightmare]

With the Crows/GWS pick swap, how does this effect the order of the Top 10 picks?

Two of Ash/Young/Jackson pretty much locked into the Top 4 now?

Committal but a fascinating trading. Great value gained by Adelaide, moving down just two picks to gain a 2020 first is an incredible outcome!

GWS must strongly believe Melbourne won't bid on Green at 3, which would allow GWS to get the leftover of Jackson/Young at 4. And Melbourne get either Ash or a Serong/Weightman at 8 depending on who GWS take at 4. Or that's how I'm seeing Melbourne's plans now.

 

[Untouchables22]

Committal but a fascinating trading. Great value gained by Adelaide, moving down just two picks to gain a 2020 first is an incredible outcome!

GWS must strongly Melbourne won't bid on Green at 3, which would allow GWS to get the leftover of Jackson/Young at 4 and get either Ash or a Serong/Weightman at 8 depending on who they take at 4. Or that's how I'm seeing their plans now.

Thanks KM.

Are you of the opinion that Adelaide weren't seriously considering Jackson/Young at 4 anyway? (I do think Jackson would've been a good fit for us)
So essentially, may get the same player at 6 as they would have at 4, depending on Sydney obviously.

 

[Revan11]

Committal but a fascinating trading. Great value gained by Adelaide, moving down just two picks to gain a 2020 first is an incredible outcome!

GWS must strongly Melbourne won't bid on Green at 3, which would allow GWS to get the leftover of Jackson/Young at 4 and get either Ash or a Serong/Weightman at 8 depending on who they take at 4. Or that's how I'm seeing their plans now.

Can’t believe a grand final team are getting two top 5 picks!! It’s insanity!