Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Chioli]

Hopefully Cripps still has a lot of good football ahead of him. Walsh is obviously the star and Cripps hopefully can get back to his better football. Beyond that, it's a wait and see situation with some who may be able supporting pieces, but no obvious next star is certain at this point.

Early draft it's going to be mostly midfielders picked this year as a draft lacking in the way of talls. Finn Callaghan likely won't be available at Carlton's pick but maybe a Matthew Roberts or Josh Ward are as probably aside from Daicos and Horne those two next best midfielders in my mind at least, though across draft boards my impression is there could be some variation in where they're both rated which might mean one or the other slip to Carlton's pick. One or the other could well be good enough to become that #3 midfielder.

I am relatively more pessimistic re. Callaghan than other observers. I see all the talent and the freakish movement through traffic that everyone else does, and he can heavily influence games which is something else I look for, but when looking at midfielders the factor with the highest correlation to success over the years has been contested ball winning and the volume they win plays such a major part. So often when looking at those who go early, the successes are those who can win their own footy and the fails are those who can't. Callaghan is not a high volume contested ball winner (he's low-moderate volume by junior and that may suffice and he can develop well beyond that with more time and work) but seeing him back out of contests and not go hard enough to apply tackles in numerous plays this season has had me asking myself whether he's hard enough, and around stoppages I continue to find him too reliant on receiving, so I do want improvement from him in those competitiveness/contested/tackling/pressure areas before I push his draft case as that next guy after Horne of the non-f/s picks as many currently are.

How would you compare Bont's draft year to that of Callaghan?

 

[flipper83]

AFL Draft state of play. The top picks, draft bolters, father-son, Academy and NGA prospects you should be watching out for: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ghtmare-draft-state-play-everything-need-know



Interested in the views of others with the F.S/NGA and Academy players I listed in the piece if there are others I didn't list that people like.

I hope the dogs look at Blake Scott for a rookie b spot. Has a good start to the year but haven't heard much since. I think he might have been moved to defence. What do you think of his prospects?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, if you were to give a player comparison for Nick Daicos, who would it be? From what I've seen, he seems to be similar to Zac Merrett. Although I do hope he has better skills since I rate Merrett as an awful kick.

Also, with our recent midfield draftees over the last few years, do you think we will have enough to work with moving forward, which would allow for more of a key position focus in future drafts?

All of Finlay Macrae, Josh Daicos, Nick Daicos and Caleb Poulter seem to have a decent inside/outside, with all the necessary tools to thrive on the wing at the very least. However on the inside we only have McInnes who seems to be more of a Treloar/Shiel/Bolton type rather than the inside bull that we need (JPK/Lyons/Wines). Do you see Nick Daicos as being able to fulfill this role, or is he better as an accumulator, which means we might need to look for someone like a Will Brodie to complement our midfield?

Daicos' kicking is not great, but more-so good. He has a few loose kicks here/there and isn't a super penetrator by foot, but should keep getting better by foot and hits his targets over a variety of distances and has some creativity with how he uses it and has all the composure and time to dispose of it. It's his work in traffic that is special with Daicos. I have compared Daicos to Merrett as he does have a similar inside/outside balance and accumulation to his game and a similar physical profile.

Collingwood don't nearly have enough quality long term option through the midfield. It's a lot of speculative youth still. Collingwood didn't mess up with last year's draft, but Collingwood remain largely deficient across the field broadly with the midfield is definitely a weak point. Outside stocks are fine but inside a lot more will need to be added. More will need to be added.

I'd look to pair Nick Daicos with a premier first possession winning - think your Patrick Cripps/Tom Green big bodied ball winner. Will Brodie is another in that style, maybe he could be considered from the perspective that he's better than a number of Collingwood's bottom of list types, though whether he's the answer is the question, and I'm not convinced he is.

How would you compare Bont's draft year to that of Callaghan?

Pretty similar. Neither had a clear best position at that age and stage though in both cases you're looking at them and hoping they can become AFL mids.

Similar calibre players at the same age, though I'd give Bont the slight edge and consider him slightly the better footballer at the same age, not that Bont was great in his draft year. To compare them, Bont was at the same age/stage even more versatile as a greater threat forward of centre and better aerially but critically where I see the greatest seperation from projecting ahead is that Bont was a late bloomer growing a lot later and his his draft year and still growing into his body and as a result developing that contested side later - giving him that greater upside which he has gone on to realise. It's not clear Callaghan can do the same and the odds if you're comparing them at the same age/stage as a result is lower.

If Callaghan was a late bloomer as a footballer or grew more recently that would definitely work in his favour. I'm not aware of him growing recently though and my understanding is he was in the junior programs and really good from a young age. So I'm not seeing that same upside or rate of development in the AFL system.

I hope the dogs look at Blake Scott for a rookie b spot. Has a good start to the year but haven't heard much since. I think he might have been moved to defence. What do you think of his prospects?

Late/rookie Scott is one who could be considered though I'd like to see him start finding and winning more of the footy before advocating him. He has shown glimpses. Takes on the game at great speed, one touch at ground level and can lay a good tackle. They're the components he's building with at this stage. He started the season reasonably with a couple of solid games though hasn't done as much since.

With the way he takes on the game and can break the lines, defence could be an alternative spot for him and perhaps a spot he can perhaps be fed more of the footy as he's not for a forward hitting the scoreboard or winning enough of it at this point.

 

[Knightmare]

The real reason why Gold Coast and GWS failed to win a premiership not even AFL clubs understand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iQEfRggNFU

The key numbers and points of discussion:
Of the x12 17 year olds and top-15 picks from 2010-2014 which should have made up a major portion of the club cores:
Gold Coast: 2/25 remain or 8%
GWS: 6/34 remain or 17.6%

 

[tenderwarrior]

View attachment 1184599View attachment 1184599

I mean, what he says is not untrue is it? If cost-cutting is done, that means less resources, and less resources means less support, and less support means it will be easier for clubs to pick those who can support themselves individually or within their own networks/resources..

And it is not like he said this is a good thing. He says this is a bad thing, yet he gets shot down for being Captain Obvious.

 

[Shack18]

Daicos' kicking is not great, but more-so good. He has a few loose kicks here/there and isn't a super penetrator by foot, but should keep getting better by foot and hits his targets over a variety of distances and has some creativity with how he uses it and has all the composure and time to dispose of it. It's his work in traffic that is special with Daicos. I have compared Daicos to Merrett as he does have a similar inside/outside balance and accumulation to his game and a similar physical profile.

Collingwood don't nearly have enough quality long term option through the midfield. It's a lot of speculative youth still. Collingwood didn't mess up with last year's draft, but Collingwood remain largely deficient across the field broadly with the midfield is definitely a weak point. Outside stocks are fine but inside a lot more will need to be added. More will need to be added.

I'd look to pair Nick Daicos with a premier first possession winning - think your Patrick Cripps/Tom Green big bodied ball winner. Will Brodie is another in that style, maybe he could be considered from the perspective that he's better than a number of Collingwood's bottom of list types, though whether he's the answer is the question, and I'm not convinced he is.



Pretty similar. Neither had a clear best position at that age and stage though in both cases you're looking at them and hoping they can become AFL mids.

Similar calibre players at the same age, though I'd give Bont the slight edge and consider him slightly the better footballer at the same age, not that Bont was great in his draft year. To compare them, Bont was at the same age/stage even more versatile as a greater threat forward of centre and better aerially but critically where I see the greatest seperation from projecting ahead is that Bont was a late bloomer growing a lot later and his his draft year and still growing into his body and as a result developing that contested side later - giving him that greater upside which he has gone on to realise. It's not clear Callaghan can do the same and the odds if you're comparing them at the same age/stage as a result is lower.

If Callaghan was a late bloomer as a footballer or grew more recently that would definitely work in his favour. I'm not aware of him growing recently though and my understanding is he was in the junior programs and really good from a young age. So I'm not seeing that same upside or rate of development in the AFL system.



Late/rookie Scott is one who could be considered though I'd like to see him start finding and winning more of the footy before advocating him. He has shown glimpses. Takes on the game at great speed, one touch at ground level and can lay a good tackle. They're the components he's building with at this stage. He started the season reasonably with a couple of solid games though hasn't done as much since.

With the way he takes on the game and can break the lines, defence could be an alternative spot for him and perhaps a spot he can perhaps be fed more of the footy as he's not for a forward hitting the scoreboard or winning enough of it at this point.

Really surprised you are not a fan of Daicos kicking. I watched him play lots of school footy, and his kicking was better than Rowell, Anderson, Richards et al atCarey. His kicking both field and at goal was elite. Haven’t seen him at TAC cup level though. He weights his kicks superbly and kicks to his team mates advantage

 

[SWSainter]

I mean, what he says is not untrue is it? If cost-cutting is done, that means less resources, and less resources means less support, and less support means it will be easier for clubs to pick those who can support themselves individually or within their own networks/resources..

And it is not like he said this is a good thing. He says this is a bad thing, yet he gets shot down for being Captain Obvious.

I can see what he is getting at, but the logic is inverted. The kids who acheive WITHOUT the resources of the cherry picking, pampered private schools should be regarded as overcoming regardless of the lack of resources and especially attention. Regional kids at non-PSA schools do it hard, especially here in WA. He is ignorant to put all his trust in the celebrated, look for the harder workers. Just my opinion based what I see in regional WA.

 

[Knightmare]

I mean, what he says is not untrue is it? If cost-cutting is done, that means less resources, and less resources means less support, and less support means it will be easier for clubs to pick those who can support themselves individually or within their own networks/resources..

And it is not like he said this is a good thing. He says this is a bad thing, yet he gets shot down for being Captain Obvious.

Whether it's this comment here by Simpson or the comments Matt Rendell made for Adelaide that ultimately got fired, I don't believe either would have made the comments they did publicly without believing in some way or another that it's a positive thing to say and raises a genuine concern which needs addressing.

I may look at things differently, but I feel like both of them respectively were in making the statements they made trying to bring to light and see social issues addressed to maximise opportunity for all.

Really surprised you are not a fan of Daicos kicking. I watched him play lots of school footy, and his kicking was better than Rowell, Anderson, Richards et al atCarey. His kicking both field and at goal was elite. Haven’t seen him at TAC cup level though. He weights his kicks superbly and kicks to his team mates advantage

Daicos is a good kick, but not a great kick. He has some creativity which those other guys don't have, but it's because he is able to create so much time and space with ball in hand which those others as a point of contrast can't on the same level, that's why Daicos looks so good with ball in hand a lot of the time, particularly in traffic that's where he has the edge on those guys as ball users.

Rowell/Anderson/Richards also are more your good rather than great kicks but obviously don't create that same time and space in traffic as that isn't their games, and it's hard to do on the level Daicos does, as that's basically his calling card.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

McGovern has barely had an opponent for the last 6 years and he's one of the best intercept marks in history.

As I said, he would have to be played as a loose defender in a spare behind the ball system like WCE deploy.

He's not a FB and never will be, he would get eaten alive by the likes of McKay, King etc moving forward, not only on the lead, but also trying to defend them when out of position.

You have disregarded the Div 2 carnivals as irrelevant in the past, also the TSL when it came to Tarryn Thomas, you can't suddenly use it now as evidence as to Callow's body of work...

Wow don't post when you actually don't know.

 

[Harry O]

Daicos' kicking is not great, but more-so good. He has a few loose kicks here/there and isn't a super penetrator by foot, but should keep getting better by foot and hits his targets over a variety of distances and has some creativity with how he uses it and has all the composure and time to dispose of it. It's his work in traffic that is special with Daicos. I have compared Daicos to Merrett as he does have a similar inside/outside balance and accumulation to his game and a similar physical profile.

Collingwood don't nearly have enough quality long term option through the midfield. It's a lot of speculative youth still. Collingwood didn't mess up with last year's draft, but Collingwood remain largely deficient across the field broadly with the midfield is definitely a weak point. Outside stocks are fine but inside a lot more will need to be added. More will need to be added.

I'd look to pair Nick Daicos with a premier first possession winning - think your Patrick Cripps/Tom Green big bodied ball winner. Will Brodie is another in that style, maybe he could be considered from the perspective that he's better than a number of Collingwood's bottom of list types, though whether he's the answer is the question, and I'm not convinced he is.



Pretty similar. Neither had a clear best position at that age and stage though in both cases you're looking at them and hoping they can become AFL mids.

Similar calibre players at the same age, though I'd give Bont the slight edge and consider him slightly the better footballer at the same age, not that Bont was great in his draft year. To compare them, Bont was at the same age/stage even more versatile as a greater threat forward of centre and better aerially but critically where I see the greatest seperation from projecting ahead is that Bont was a late bloomer growing a lot later and his his draft year and still growing into his body and as a result developing that contested side later - giving him that greater upside which he has gone on to realise. It's not clear Callaghan can do the same and the odds if you're comparing them at the same age/stage as a result is lower.

If Callaghan was a late bloomer as a footballer or grew more recently that would definitely work in his favour. I'm not aware of him growing recently though and my understanding is he was in the junior programs and really good from a young age. So I'm not seeing that same upside or rate of development in the AFL system.



Late/rookie Scott is one who could be considered though I'd like to see him start finding and winning more of the footy before advocating him. He has shown glimpses. Takes on the game at great speed, one touch at ground level and can lay a good tackle. They're the components he's building with at this stage. He started the season reasonably with a couple of solid games though hasn't done as much since.

With the way he takes on the game and can break the lines, defence could be an alternative spot for him and perhaps a spot he can perhaps be fed more of the footy as he's not for a forward hitting the scoreboard or winning enough of it at this point.

Callaghan had a massive growth spurt AFTER his under 16 season. Would have grown 20+ cms and put on a lot of size/kgs
He captained the vic schoolboys under 12 team with Hobbs Howes etc but missed the vic metro 16’s team because he was still so small

 

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare. Who would you rather. Cerra or Horne?

 

[Knightmare]

Callaghan had a massive growth spurt AFTER his under 16 season. Would have grown 20+ cms and put on a lot of size/kgs
He captained the vic schoolboys under 12 team with Hobbs Howes etc but missed the vic metro 16’s team because he was still so small

Are there any official measurements on Callaghan at those ages?

Hey Knightmare. Who would you rather. Cerra or Horne?

No meaningful separation.

If I could have one or the other, Horne. Though if I could turn a pick that would otherwise be Horne into Cerra + something else worthwhile eg. Fremantle's first round pick, I'd do that.

 

[Polo342]

Are there any official measurements on Callaghan at those ages?



No meaningful separation.

If I could have one or the other, Horne. Though if I could turn a pick that would otherwise be Horne into Cerra + something else worthwhile eg. Fremantle's first round pick, I'd do that.

Would you not rather the proven talent mate?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Would you not rather the proven talent mate?

If North offered pick 1 for Cerra you're taking it in a heart beat. 1 They wouldn't do it but if they did you'd almost be giving an early 2nd back aswell + some. Cerra has talent but hasn't exploded like we've seen from Walsh etc and Horne is someone who is built with talent and could (not saying he will.)

 

[Polo342]

If North offered pick 1 for Cerra you're taking it in a heart beat. 1 They wouldn't do it but if they did you'd almost be giving an early 2nd back aswell + some. Cerra has talent but hasn't exploded like we've seen from Walsh etc and Horne is someone who is built with talent and could (not saying he will.)

I gotta say I havent watched much of Horne at all. Who does he project like?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I gotta say I havent watched much of Horne at all. Who does he project like?

Well i think he said himself last year he compares himself to a Fyfe type haha. I'd say not a bad shout, lacks the height but makes up with it with his leap and ability in the air, he's faster a bit like what Fyfe was in 13/14 when he wasn't as big and had pace (Horne still has more) Horne also very strong already and should get stronger, has pretty good skills etc.

 

[Knightmare]

Would you not rather the proven talent mate?

I would take the proven talent if I'm projecting about the same career outcome.

There are a number of observers who believe Horne will be a generational mid and many wouldn't even trade pick one for Cerra and Fremantle's first round choice. I'm not one of them who is going to go so overboard, but he's my second rated talent in this draft and still someone I have high expectations of and do see as an instant impact midfielder. If I was to re-rank the players from 2017, Cerra would fit into the 6-10 range (I like a lot of the talls from 2017). 2017 I believe to be the better draft and it's advantageous having the certainty, but despite my seemingly relative conservatism with Horne I do project him to be slightly and only slightly the better player all things said than done, as I do have a lot of respect for Cerra's game as one of the very good young midfielders in the competition.

 

[Knightmare]

August AFL Draft Power Rankings:

1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood - father-son)
2. Jason Horne
3. Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs - father-son)

Some points of discussion:
Am I the only draft observer with a mature ager in my top-20? And the only one with Bodhi Uwland on my draft board?

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Young talls catapult into top 10 calculations

ESPN.com.au's AFL Draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of August, with a versatile Calder Cannon and a leading WAFL prospect catapulting into top 10 calculations.

www.espn.com.au

 

[Mjs94]

Would you not rather the proven talent mate?

If we were going to entertain a trade for Cerra we would be offering next year's first rounder. For Pick 1 it would have to be Cerra plus something else of significance.

 

[Rocco sifreddi]

Question for Knightmare , who would be the best inside mid that can fall to our first pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Question for Knightmare , who would be the best inside mid that can fall to our first pick?

Matthew Roberts would be a ripper and could well be available. He's a year one ready mid and the bonus is he can also push forward.

Josh Ward is the other one I really like around that choice for Richmond and would be carefully weighing up if there also, although he's more of a balanced mid who looks just as good outside as he does inside, rather than a pure inside mid.

 

[0utsider]

Matthew Roberts would be a ripper and could well be available. He's a year one ready mid and the bonus is he can also push forward.

Josh Ward is the other one I really like around that choice for Richmond and would be carefully weighing up if there also, although he's more of a balanced mid who looks just as good outside as he does inside, rather than a pure inside mid.

Wouldn't be counting on either of them falling that low tbh, both will have plenty of suiters in the top 10. I've got Richmond just sneaking into the 8 so by the time bids are in I don't reckon they're picking till early teens at best. Do you think a Matthew Johnson, Josh Goater or Arlo Draper are a bit more realistic in that range?

Also I'm seeing Ward as a good fit for the Saints. Thoughts?

 

[briztoon]

Are there any official measurements on Callaghan at those ages?

If you do a google search of the Vic school boys U15 teams, they have measurements.

 

[Knightmare]

Wouldn't be counting on either of them falling that low tbh, both will have plenty of suiters in the top 10. I've got Richmond just sneaking into the 8 so by the time bids are in I don't reckon they're picking till early teens at best. Do you think a Matthew Johnson, Josh Goater or Arlo Draper are a bit more realistic in that range?

Also I'm seeing Ward as a good fit for the Saints. Thoughts?

A tough road still to make the top-8 for Richmond. I think it's against the odds, but you can never say never, they're a champion team.

Not everyone rates Roberts a top-10 prospect. I would be in the extreme minority to potentially on my own even for rating him as high as I do. If I'm to create a phantom draft today, he probably goes somewhere around the 10 mark for a rough feel, maybe even 10-15. Johnson, Goater and Draper could all feature in that same range.

Ward if there I feel like is a good fit for any midfield needing a boost and he would provide a point of contrast, so a good fit both for value, but also to provide a complementary midfielder who isn't a replica or too similar to anyone else.

 

[The Bomb]

Hey Knightmare, if you were to give a player comparison for Nick Daicos, who would it be? From what I've seen, he seems to be similar to Zac Merrett. Although I do hope he has better skills since I rate Merrett as an awful kick.

maybe go and get your eyes tested, probably more likely you have never seen him play.