Ladder Predictor - How will September Look?

[w00dy]

I think that many in the media don't pay enough credit to the draw when considering the finals chances of teams. The ladder predictor is a great tool, in assessing how sides are going to do for the rest of the season...

Having run the rest of the season myself under a few different scenarios, it would seem that the following will happen...

Collingwood and Geelong will be the top 2 sides.

Hawthorn will most likely finish third, however could be threatened by the Blues or the Eagles...

Carlton and West Coast will finish 4th and 5th. While the Blues are likely to remain top 4, the Eagles win this week over the Blues gives them a real chance to clinch 4th spot.

The Swans will finish 6th, likely with a big margin on 7th. They could easily finish with 15 wins for the season, however even with 12 wins they'll still be clear in 6th.

7th and 8th are very interesting spots with 10 wins and a draw could be enough to secure 7th or 8th... Melbourne, Fremantle, St. Kilda, and North Melbourne fighting for the two spots, with the Bulldogs also an outside chance. The games played in between these sides will be telling for their finals chances, in particular between North and the Saints who play each other twice in the remaining rounds...

The Dees have an interesting draw, playing 4 of the top 5 along with 4 sides who can't make the finals and the Bulldogs. If they can get one win from playing the Bulldogs or Eagles at Etihad, or Port Adelaide at AAMI then they should gain one of the spots. It means the game this Friday is massive in terms of their finals chances, the Dees need to break the hoodoo at the Dome as it will almost guarantee them a spot in the 8... However, I expect them to lose that game, and be forced to beat Port Adelaide away in the last round to secure their finals birth...

While at the same time, quite a number of games between North Melbourne, St Kilda, Freo and the Dogs means that whoever gets the best of these games should see some September action. While I think the Dogs will finish below the Bombers, their draw gives them a greater chance of sneaking into the 8...

After losing to the Demons on Saturday, the Tigers are cooked with an extremely tough draw to come, a game against the Suns maybe the only win they'll have for the rest of the season. Need to look forward to next year Tiger fans...

my ladder...

Collingwood: 21-1-0
Geelong: 21-1-0
Hawthorn: 17-5-0
West Coast: 17-5-0
Carlton: 16-5-1
Sydney: 15-6-1
Melbourne: 10-11-1
St. Kilda: 10-11-1
----------------------------
North Melbourne: 10-12-0
Fremantle: 10-12-0
Essendon: 7-14-1
Western Bulldogs: 7-15-0
Richmond: 6-15-1
Adelaide: 6-16-0
Brisbane: 5-17-0
Port Adelaide: 3-19-0
Gold Coast: 3-19-0


Most likely change to this is for North to sneak in ahead of the saints or the Demons, or the Dockers to do the same if they improve their percentage...

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

 

[Donakebab]

Two teams making the 8 on 10.5 wins?!

 

[Magma]

6 wins?

whoa, where am i? is this narnia?

i can see us only winning 1 more game against gold coast. if we're lucky.

 

[tigerfan12]

6 wins?

whoa, where am i? is this narnia?

i can see us only winning 1 more game against gold coast. if we're lucky.

Don't worry mate , he has richmond winning one more.

What people need to take into account , is when they do a ladder predictor , this weeks form could change in two or three week's.
e.g. teams that lost this week can still win

 

[Alexwce]

West Coast lose 5 games this season, yeah...dunno

 

[docks]

I think that many in the media don't pay enough credit to the draw when considering the finals chances of teams. The ladder predictor is a great tool, in assessing how sides are going to do for the rest of the season...

Having run the rest of the season myself under a few different scenarios, it would seem that the following will happen...

Collingwood and Geelong will be the top 2 sides.

Hawthorn will most likely finish third, however could be threatened by the Blues or the Eagles...

Carlton and West Coast will finish 4th and 5th. While the Blues are likely to remain top 4, the Eagles win this week over the Blues gives them a real chance to clinch 4th spot.

The Swans will finish 6th, likely with a big margin on 7th. They could easily finish with 15 wins for the season, however even with 12 wins they'll still be clear in 6th.

7th and 8th are very interesting spots with 10 wins and a draw could be enough to secure 7th or 8th... Melbourne, Fremantle, St. Kilda, and North Melbourne fighting for the two spots, with the Bulldogs also an outside chance. The games played in between these sides will be telling for their finals chances, in particular between North and the Saints who play each other twice in the remaining rounds...

The Dees have an interesting draw, playing 4 of the top 5 along with 4 sides who can't make the finals and the Bulldogs. If they can get one win from playing the Bulldogs or Eagles at Etihad, or Port Adelaide at AAMI then they should gain one of the spots. It means the game this Friday is massive in terms of their finals chances, the Dees need to break the hoodoo at the Dome as it will almost guarantee them a spot in the 8... However, I expect them to lose that game, and be forced to beat Port Adelaide away in the last round to secure their finals birth...

While at the same time, quite a number of games between North Melbourne, St Kilda, Freo and the Dogs means that whoever gets the best of these games should see some September action. While I think the Dogs will finish below the Bombers, their draw gives them a greater chance of sneaking into the 8...

After losing to the Demons on Saturday, the Tigers are cooked with an extremely tough draw to come, a game against the Suns maybe the only win they'll have for the rest of the season. Need to look forward to next year Tiger fans...

my ladder...

Collingwood: 21-1-0
Geelong: 21-1-0
Hawthorn: 17-5-0
West Coast: 17-5-0
Carlton: 16-5-1
Sydney: 15-6-1
Melbourne: 10-11-1
St. Kilda: 10-11-1
----------------------------
North Melbourne: 10-12-0
Fremantle: 10-12-0
Essendon: 7-14-1
Western Bulldogs: 7-15-0
Richmond: 6-15-1
Adelaide: 6-16-0
Brisbane: 5-17-0
Port Adelaide: 3-19-0
Gold Coast: 3-19-0


Most likely change to this is for North to sneak in ahead of the saints or the Demons, or the Dockers to do the same if they improve their percentage...

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

Think you are pretty spot on there with positions in the eight, have a couple of games different myself but end up with the same result in positions.

 

[DINEnDASH]

West Coast lose 5 games this season, yeah...dunno

I'm overly optimistic. We have a good second half draw, i reckon we can go undefeated in the second half. After that pies game, we hadnt played our best, really took the confidence away, i think. But now we should by flying on a lot of momentum. The only team i really see us losing to are the dees... Theyre really unpredictable this year and could catch us off guard. We'll be the first team this season to beat the cats... Only because its at pattersons. I could be wrong.. I probably am. But who knows? Anything can happen in a game of footy.

 

[Roobs321]

Dont think i've ever heard of a 6th team doing 15-1-6
Could be unheard of.

Also, West Coast going 17-5, despite the draw, seems like a fantasy. For the record, we went 17-5 in 2005/06. Even 1994, we only went 16-6.
I expect us to drop a post-derby game.
Still, our injury list is miraculously short, with the only notable current absences in Beau Waters and Mitch Brown both approaching a return. If we make a dent in September this year, it will probably be because of our health.

So maybe the Melbourne/North Melbourne predictions have come full circle and actually were on the money?

 

[BigWardy12]

freo are expected to win this week against GC which would make us 8-6.
Its hard to see us only winning 2 out of 8 after that considering we will have Mundy and Barlow back.

 

[w00dy]

Two teams making the 8 on 10.5 wins?!

shows how far ahead the rest are, short of Melbourne, Roos, St. Kilda or Freo knocking off sides in the top 5 or 6, it could very well happen.

obviously these things are hard to do, so its easiest to pick who's likely to win... a few upsets here or there won't change the sides finishing the top 6, but will determine which two sides sneak into 7 and 8...

 

[w00dy]

freo are expected to win this week against GC which would make us 8-6.
Its hard to see us only winning 2 out of 8 after that considering we will have Mundy and Barlow back.

the way I worked it was had you losing away from home, and losing a couple of tough home games...

could easily win a couple more and sneak into the 8, but for the purposes of the exercise, that's the way I see it going...

 

[BigWardy12]

ok. Dont think u could assume we would lose all away matches. Id expect us to beat north melbourne at etihad.

 

[Patch Adams]

ok. Dont think u could assume we would lose all away matches. Id expect us to beat north melbourne at etihad.

despite losing this game last year by 50 points?

we may not be certainties but 'expecting' you to win seems a bit over the top

 

[BandF]

I haven't played around with the ladder predictor but big chance that the roos will be up there considering there draw for the remainder of the season.

Only games I would pencil in for a sure loss would be Round 16 against Pies and Round 20 agains Hawks?

Every other game is very winnable and they are traveling along ok at the moment.

 

[LordJimmy]

West Coast are certainly a finals side but they will drop more than 5 games this year. No doubt. It probably will be an upset of some form but they will lose more often than that.

Geelong and Collingwood going into the finals on 21-1 each, both losses from games against eachother, would be incredible.

 

[BigWardy12]

despite losing this game last year by 50 points?

we may not be certainties but 'expecting' you to win seems a bit over the top

Just the kind of terminology you use when doing ladder predictions. Just means i would have us more on the winning side than the losing.

 

[The Magenius]

I would bite someone's hand off for only 5 losses, but to be fair to the predictor west coast has been consistent in their Level of effort every week, hard to predict that will not continue.
We only play one team above us on the ladder for the rest of the year. It could happen, but injuries suspensions will play a key role.

 

[inbetween]

Yeah dont think we lose only 1 more game for the rest of the year (im assuming everyone thinks it to be Geelong?) For that to occur we would need to remain as healthy as we have for the last few weeks, which is still possible i guess. Realistically you'd think we would lose 2 or 3, 4 at most. Giving a final record of anywhere between 17-5 and 14-8. I dont think Saints will make finals, and if it werent for that horrendous run with injuries i wouldve pencilled in Freo for finals but they could actually miss out.
I believe North Melbourne and Melbourne take 7th and 8th.

I think the game at Etihad against Melbourne is the game WC is most likely to lose.

 

[BrandonG]

Blues and hawthorn still third and fourth for me ,Blues were missing curnow, robbo,duigan,hampson,waite and laidler and jammo went down early...

and hawthorn also have huge outs , once both teams get close to there 22 out there every one will jump back on the wagons

 

[XYZ123]

I think that many in the media don't pay enough credit to the draw when considering the finals chances of teams. The ladder predictor is a great tool, in assessing how sides are going to do for the rest of the season...

Having run the rest of the season myself under a few different scenarios, it would seem that the following will happen...

Collingwood and Geelong will be the top 2 sides.

Hawthorn will most likely finish third, however could be threatened by the Blues or the Eagles...

Carlton and West Coast will finish 4th and 5th. While the Blues are likely to remain top 4, the Eagles win this week over the Blues gives them a real chance to clinch 4th spot.

The Swans will finish 6th, likely with a big margin on 7th. They could easily finish with 15 wins for the season, however even with 12 wins they'll still be clear in 6th.

7th and 8th are very interesting spots with 10 wins and a draw could be enough to secure 7th or 8th... Melbourne, Fremantle, St. Kilda, and North Melbourne fighting for the two spots, with the Bulldogs also an outside chance. The games played in between these sides will be telling for their finals chances, in particular between North and the Saints who play each other twice in the remaining rounds...

The Dees have an interesting draw, playing 4 of the top 5 along with 4 sides who can't make the finals and the Bulldogs. If they can get one win from playing the Bulldogs or Eagles at Etihad, or Port Adelaide at AAMI then they should gain one of the spots. It means the game this Friday is massive in terms of their finals chances, the Dees need to break the hoodoo at the Dome as it will almost guarantee them a spot in the 8... However, I expect them to lose that game, and be forced to beat Port Adelaide away in the last round to secure their finals birth...

While at the same time, quite a number of games between North Melbourne, St Kilda, Freo and the Dogs means that whoever gets the best of these games should see some September action. While I think the Dogs will finish below the Bombers, their draw gives them a greater chance of sneaking into the 8...

After losing to the Demons on Saturday, the Tigers are cooked with an extremely tough draw to come, a game against the Suns maybe the only win they'll have for the rest of the season. Need to look forward to next year Tiger fans...

my ladder...

Collingwood: 21-1-0
Geelong: 21-1-0
Hawthorn: 17-5-0
West Coast: 17-5-0
Carlton: 16-5-1
Sydney: 15-6-1
Melbourne: 10-11-1
St. Kilda: 10-11-1
----------------------------
North Melbourne: 10-12-0
Fremantle: 10-12-0
Essendon: 7-14-1
Western Bulldogs: 7-15-0
Richmond: 6-15-1
Adelaide: 6-16-0
Brisbane: 5-17-0
Port Adelaide: 3-19-0
Gold Coast: 3-19-0


Most likely change to this is for North to sneak in ahead of the saints or the Demons, or the Dockers to do the same if they improve their percentage...

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

Although i agree we probably wont make the finals, here is our run home with what would be the likely result based on current form etc:

V Blues - Loss
V Bombers - 50/50
V Suns - Win
V Cats - Loss
V Eagles - Loss
V Swans - 50/50, only lost by 10 pts at the SCG and beat them last year at the MCG.
V Dees - 50/50
V Crows - Win (Crows will tank last few games of season)
V Roos - 50/50

- Probable wins = 2
- Probable losses = 3
- 50/50 = 4

If you say split those 50/50s 2 wins (most likely Bombers and Roos) 2 losses (most likely Swans and Dees), that'd give the Tigers 9.5 wins on the season.

What makes it more interesting is that those teams around those final 2 top 8 spots (Demons, Freo, Roos, Saints, Bombers, Tigers and Dogs) seem to play each other again in the season at some point (Tigers v Roos R24, Tigers v Dees R22, STK v Freo R20, Noth v Dogs R17, Tigers v Dons R16 etc).

Obviously i don't know what results you came up with your predictor, but those teams battling for the same spot based on recent results are pretty even (Tigers d. Roos, Roos d. Melbourne, Melbourne d. Dons, Tigers d Dons, Melbourne d Tigers, Dons d. STK, STK d. Melbourne etc etc.)

All it really takes is one of these 50/50 matches between these teams to go the other way and the bottom positions are anyone's.. especially if 10.5 wins are going to be enough to make the finals.

Bias aside, i did the predictor and had the Demons and Roos in 7th and 8th... with the mighty Tiger's at their accustomed 9th by 1 win

Either way i have no doubt that these spots will go down to the final round... so just sit back and enjoy the fireworks!

 

[Tas]

Predictors are good when there are only a small number of variables, with so many games left it is too hard to tell, even the Dogs could quite easily make the 8 if the spread of wins/losses is favourable and they get on winning streak. A month ago we were on 2 wins and people were talking about spoon play-offs. Form could shift radically in a short period of time.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Don't be too surprised if the Pies and Cats drop a game or two to a lower club in a shock upset. Just need to be a few % off in terms of intensity. Just look at the Cats-Suns game. If the Cats were playing a top four-six team, they would have been about 8 goals down at half time. Would be massive to have two teams 21-1 going into finals. Don't think it will happen though.

 

[Goldhawk]

I think that many in the media don't pay enough credit to the draw when considering the finals chances of teams. The ladder predictor is a great tool, in assessing how sides are going to do for the rest of the season...

Having run the rest of the season myself under a few different scenarios, it would seem that the following will happen...

Collingwood and Geelong will be the top 2 sides.

Hawthorn will most likely finish third, however could be threatened by the Blues or the Eagles...

Carlton and West Coast will finish 4th and 5th. While the Blues are likely to remain top 4, the Eagles win this week over the Blues gives them a real chance to clinch 4th spot.

The Swans will finish 6th, likely with a big margin on 7th. They could easily finish with 15 wins for the season, however even with 12 wins they'll still be clear in 6th.

7th and 8th are very interesting spots with 10 wins and a draw could be enough to secure 7th or 8th... Melbourne, Fremantle, St. Kilda, and North Melbourne fighting for the two spots, with the Bulldogs also an outside chance. The games played in between these sides will be telling for their finals chances, in particular between North and the Saints who play each other twice in the remaining rounds...

The Dees have an interesting draw, playing 4 of the top 5 along with 4 sides who can't make the finals and the Bulldogs. If they can get one win from playing the Bulldogs or Eagles at Etihad, or Port Adelaide at AAMI then they should gain one of the spots. It means the game this Friday is massive in terms of their finals chances, the Dees need to break the hoodoo at the Dome as it will almost guarantee them a spot in the 8... However, I expect them to lose that game, and be forced to beat Port Adelaide away in the last round to secure their finals birth...

While at the same time, quite a number of games between North Melbourne, St Kilda, Freo and the Dogs means that whoever gets the best of these games should see some September action. While I think the Dogs will finish below the Bombers, their draw gives them a greater chance of sneaking into the 8...

After losing to the Demons on Saturday, the Tigers are cooked with an extremely tough draw to come, a game against the Suns maybe the only win they'll have for the rest of the season. Need to look forward to next year Tiger fans...

my ladder...

Collingwood: 21-1-0
Geelong: 21-1-0
Hawthorn: 17-5-0
West Coast: 17-5-0
Carlton: 16-5-1
Sydney: 15-6-1
Melbourne: 10-11-1
St. Kilda: 10-11-1
----------------------------
North Melbourne: 10-12-0
Fremantle: 10-12-0
Essendon: 7-14-1
Western Bulldogs: 7-15-0
Richmond: 6-15-1
Adelaide: 6-16-0
Brisbane: 5-17-0
Port Adelaide: 3-19-0
Gold Coast: 3-19-0


Most likely change to this is for North to sneak in ahead of the saints or the Demons, or the Dockers to do the same if they improve their percentage...

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

You've got that one wrong....Richmond should finish 9th

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Don't be too surprised if the Pies and Cats drop a game or two to a lower club in a shock upset. Just need to be a few % off in terms of intensity. Just look at the Cats-Suns game. If the Cats were playing a top four-six team, they would have been about 8 goals down at half time. Would be massive to have two teams 21-1 going into finals. Don't think it will happen though.

Even moreso Pies v Adelaide.

 

[goalgoalgoal]

i expect collingwood to drop 2 more games maybe hawthorn and fremantle