Latest polls: "Labor faces wipeout"

[Dry Rot]

Labor faces wipeout
PHILLIP COOREY CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
June 7, 2010

THE Rudd government would be wiped out if an election were held today with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing the Coalition ahead of Labor for the first time in more than four years and disillusioned voters flocking to the Greens and independents.

The poll shows the Coalition leading Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, an increase of 3 percentage points to the Coalition in a month.

This represents a swing of 5.7 per cent to the Coalition since the last election which, if replicated uniformly at an election, would strip Labor of 29 seats...

http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-faces-wipeout-20100606-xn7v.html

Rudd on the nose

Rudd's showdown at the Last Chance Saloon
PETER HARTCHER POLITICAL EDITOR
June 7, 2010
THE Australian electorate has delivered its first political death threat to Kevin Rudd.

For the first time since Rudd became Labor leader, a major opinion poll has found that the voting public would decisively reject the party at an election.

Today's poll gives Tony Abbott's Coalition a commanding 53 per cent of the measure that decides elections - the two-party share of the vote.

For comparison, Rudd won power in 2007 with 52.7 per cent.

The speed of the collapse in Labor's support suggests not a drift but a rupture - Rudd's popularity has collapsed from 59 per cent to 41 per cent in two months.

And the government's standing has suffered accordingly. "This is a big protest against the government,'' said the Herald's pollster, Nielsen's John Stirton. ''It looks like a protest against Kevin Rudd."...

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-showdown-at-the-last-chance-saloon-20100606-xn7x.html

Why?

Mining tax hits ALP in marginals
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor From: The Australian June 07, 2010 12:00AM

THE Rudd government's handling of the proposed $12 billion mining tax is so badly regarded among Labor voters in key marginal seats it could cost the ALP enough seats just in the resources states of Queensland and Western Australia to lose the election.

As Kevin Rudd faces calls from leading business figures, the mining industry and state premiers to revamp or drop the tax, 78 per cent of voters in crucial marginal seats agree the tax should be made more acceptable to the mining industry or dropped. Only 13 per cent believe the tax should be introduced without changes. The level of support among Labor voters for changing or dropping the tax is only slightly lower at 71 per cent and much higher among Coalition voters at 91 per cent....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/mining-tax-hits-alp-in-marginals/story-e6frg6n6-1225876227892

 

[Nankervis brothers]

^^^^^
Before you pop the cork on that champagne bottle i suggest you keep in mind the following:

In 1990, 93, 96, 98, 2001, and 2004 the opposition of the time held 4-14% leads in two party prefered 6 months out from an election. None won the election. In 96 and 2007, years the government changed hands, the opposition were leading TPP by 15% + and also held a massive lead in prefered leader.

In other words, the Coalitions lead in TPP is about normal for an opposition in an election year, and Abbotts personal numbers are well behind for a future PM.

Doesn't mean the Abbott mob can't win. But they would making history big time if they did.

 

[Dry Rot]

^^^^^
Before you pop the cork on that champagne bottle i suggest you keep in mind the following:

Mate, I think so little of either major party that you should be talking about a popping the corkof a spumate bottle which has been in the boot of your car over summer.

In 1990, 93, 96, 98, 2001, and 2004 the opposition of the time held 4-14% leads in two party prefered 6 months out from an election. None won the election. In 96 and 2007, years the government changed hands, the opposition were leading TPP by 15% + and also held a massive lead in prefered leader.

In other words, the Coalitions lead in TPP is about normal for an opposition in an election year, and Abbotts personal numbers are well behind for a future PM.

Doesn't mean Abbott mob can't win. But they would making history big time if they did.

Good post. Agreed. But these polls are just a good indicator of where the "national head" is, no more or less. I suppose their significance is from the amazing popularity/lead Rudd had, and now pissed up against a tree.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Mate, I think so little of either major party that you should be talking about a popping the corkof a spumate bottle which has been in the boot of your car over summer.



Good post. Agreed. But these polls are just a good indicator of where the "national head" is, no more or less. I suppose their significance is from the amazing popularity/lead Rudd had, and now pissed up against a tree.

Ah, i had you pegged as a Lib voter. Seems to be a lot on this forum. But your spumante metaphor gets your disdain/ambivalence across clearly. My apologies.

Agreed at how extraordinary Rudds decline has been. But then also expected. A 70%+ approval rating is insane, and can't be kept. Alot of it had to do with nothing more than many being happy to just have Howard out, and that isn't reason enough. We are back to reality now.

FWIW i have many problems with contemporary Labor, but also think they are doing a woeful job of 'selling' their achievements this term. I personally don't think they have been that bad a first term government. Rudd has really trashed his brand, especially whatever is left of Labours centre-Left platform. That is where he is bleeding votes.

 

[tandino]

Woah, back up gentlemen.

There's nothing wrong with Riccadonna.

 

[Max zero]

Another issue is that the Green preferences that Labour is counting on may not split Labour's way as much as it has in the past:

Especially when you consider that according to the latest Morgan poll, while at the last election Green preferences broke 80:20 Labor's way things are now radically altered.

"However, close analysis of recent Morgan poll trends shows Greens preferences are now closer to 65:35 in the ALP's favour . . . likely caused by the Rudd government's effective abandonment of its emissions trading scheme legislation."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...electorate-green/story-e6frg6zo-1225876183972

Without strong Green preferences Labour will find it very, very hard.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

It's important to remember that this is a Nielsen phone poll, not a Morgan face-to-face poll.

Phone polling has repeatedly been shown to result in a 4-5% TPP bias towards the Coalition over the last couple of years, and Morgan's TPP numbers have proven to be more reliable than Newspoll or Nielsen time and time again.

 

[GuruJane]

Labor members and factional bosses back in their electorates this week being faced with the question: Do they allow these figures to solidify from a protest against Rudd to a protest against the government itself or do they remove Rudd when Parliament resumes next week?

Meanwhile skin-saving Kev checks out procedures for calling an election.

Four boats and $3,000,000 worth of asylum seekers arrive in 2 days over the weekend.

Interesting times.

 

[Daytripper]

Ah, i had you pegged as a Lib voter. Seems to be a lot on this forum.

You're joking, aren't you ?

******
How different would the poll results be if Gillard was leader ??

 

[morgoth]

^^^^^
Before you pop the cork on that champagne bottle i suggest you keep in mind the following:

In 1990, 93, 96, 98, 2001, and 2004 the opposition of the time held 4-14% leads in two party prefered 6 months out from an election. None won the election. In 96 and 2007, years the government changed hands, the opposition were leading TPP by 15% + and also held a massive lead in prefered leader.

In other words, the Coalitions lead in TPP is about normal for an opposition in an election year, and Abbotts personal numbers are well behind for a future PM.

Doesn't mean the Abbott mob can't win. But they would making history big time if they did.

But news flows much faster these days and opinions change with them.

I think the days of incumbency are coming to an end, voters are all persuassions are sick of being lied to and taken for granted. I think in future we will see govts come and go a lot faster than in the past. Not great for stability but until the pollies get their shit together I reckon they are going to get punished in the only way we can, voting against them.

 

[morgoth]

It's important to remember that this is a Nielsen phone poll, not a Morgan face-to-face poll.

Phone polling has repeatedly been shown to result in a 4-5% TPP bias towards the Coalition over the last couple of years, and Morgan's TPP numbers have proven to be more reliable than Newspoll or Nielsen time and time again.

Look at the trend, all polls have labor going one way. As the saying goes, the trend is your freind.

The other key is his primary vote, it has collapsed, 33%, the ALP is in the death zone.

 

[Belnakor]

Phone polling has repeatedly been shown to result in a 4-5% TPP bias towards the Coalition over the last couple of years

bullshit. Source.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Just look at Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan poll data, and compare - it's not rocket science.

 

[Hass]

It's important to remember that this is a Nielsen phone poll, not a Morgan face-to-face poll.

Phone polling has repeatedly been shown to result in a 4-5% TPP bias towards the Coalition over the last couple of years, and Morgan's TPP numbers have proven to be more reliable than Newspoll or Nielsen time and time again.

It's actually Morgan's face-to-face polling that's out of whack.

Morgan's phone polling has been shown to be reliable and it usually has the ALP about 3-4% lower than their face-to-face poll.

The Poll Bludger's impartial William Bowe has noted this regularly.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

I keep an eye on Possum's blog more than Bowe tbh - how each organisation gathers their data and at what time of day or night are amongst the most significant issues IMO.

It goes without saying that not everyone has a phone - most notably as far as landlines are concerned. Also people with different voting intentions are more or less likely to be in at certain times, Thursday night for instance. Whilst a number of younger people may be contacted by one pollster more so than another, it does not mean they will actually vote or are even on the roll...

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Another important factor, particularly with Newspoll that I've noticed, is that they seem not to ask people about where they would allocate preferences, and rather impose a predetermined formula for preference voting based on the last election. That also sends the TPP the wrong way a little.

Nielsen and Morgan both count actual preferences though...

 

[morgoth]

Another important factor, particularly with Newspoll that I've noticed, is that they seem not to ask people about where they would allocate preferences, and rather impose a predetermined formula for preference voting based on the last election. That also sends the TPP the wrong way a little.

Nielsen and Morgan both count actual preferences though...

The poll this thread is about is a Nielsen poll. So if it is more reliable, Rudd is in serious trouble.

If only the Libs had a decent leader, it would be all over.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

The poll this thread is about is a Nielsen poll. So if it is more reliable, Rudd is in serious trouble.

Of course - and I note that SMH includes reference to the full Nielsen TPP data, both according to the 2007 election and actual current preferences.

The most significant thing still is that it's a phone poll, with the biases inherent in that. I'll be interested to see what the next Morgan face-to-face one says.

There are definitely plenty of things that worry me enormously about the current political situation in this country, to say the least - and the hideously large apparent support for Howard's fascistic "Pacific Solution" (now advocated by Abbott) is definitely one of them.

 

[morgoth]

Of course - and I note that SMH includes reference to the full Nielsen TPP data, both according to the 2007 election and actual current preferences.

The most significant thing still is that it's a phone poll, with the biases inherent in that. I'll be interested to see what the next Morgan face-to-face one says.

There are definitely a number of things that worry me enormously about the current political situation in this country, and the hideously large apparent support for Howard's fascistic "Pacific Solution" (now advocated by Abbott) is definitely one of them.

Wona, 2/3rd support the pacific solution. Until the left get off their high horses and understand why, they will bleed votes. Being a refugee has nothing to do with it, Howard massively increased immigration.

It is all about the fact that these people try and enter illegally. Conservatives are always big on law and order, these people are breaking our laws. That is why it is so heavily opposed. I have no problem with legal immigrations (outside of the fact that I think the services provided to refugees are weofully inadeqaute in terms of helping them assimilate and overcome issues like growing up in a war zone).

Its a law and order issue not an immigration one.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Wona, 2/3rd support the pacific solution. Until the left get off their high horses and understand why, they will bleed votes.

That whole approach, both by Howard at the time, and by others now, is a bait-and-switch con to hoodwink people, frankly.

Aside from the fact that it is not illegal - i.e. a statutory offence of any kind - to seek asylum anywhere, no matter what Abbott and the rest of the neocon armada say and how often they repeat it, the simple fact is that the vast overwhelming majority of people who do arrive unlawfully in Australia (and unlawful is the correct term) do so by PLANE, not by boat.

Visa overstayers etc. are far, far higher in number. Yet the hysteria about a comparatively tiny number of people (who invariably have their refugee claims upheld by the way, and usually end up being allowed to take up residence here, as they should be, and still did under Howard) continues to swell.

There's a major reality gap here, honestly.

PS- Interesting hypothetical: If we somehow persuaded NZ to take on the lion's share of responsibility for those refugees who arrive here, and then many of those people ended up coming to Australia anyway, as a result of the long-standing trans-Tasman travel arrangements that exist, I don't think anyone would even notice, much less raise an outcry.

 

[Metal]

I take little notice of polls until the last month to see if a long term established trend remains intact or if volatility is rife and it becomes harder to predict what people will decide in the last week. Rudd looks in serious trouble according to the primary vote figures. However there is time for him to arrest the decline in the month before polling day, given that it appears voters are registering a protest vote now, but will they on the day? In other words, have they solidly and irrevocably changed sides already?

 

[morgoth]

I take little notice of polls until the last month to see if a long term established trend remains intact or if volatility is rife and it becomes harder to predict what people will decide in the last week. Rudd looks in serious trouble according to the primary vote figures. However there is time for him to arrest the decline in the month before polling day, given that it appears voters are registering a protest vote now, but will they on the day? In other words, have they solidly and irrevocably changed sides already?

The difference at the moment is that Abbott is holding his core vote ie that 40 odd percent that always vote conservative. Rudd on the other hand is bleeding his core vote to the Greens and independents. Whether they come back, or preference to him is the big question mark.

If Abbott manages to get it together it is pretty much all over. Andrew Robb gave a very good speech a week ago re what the Liberals stand for and waht they oppose. If they can take that and expand on re policy they will become a viable alternative govt. Whether they can switch from defence (ie negative politics) to offence (policy) remains to be seen.

I personally think the ALP will boot Rudd out and instal Gillard to try and win back that lost core vote. You cannot win an election with a primary vote in the low 30's.

 

[GuruJane]

the simple fact is that the vast overwhelming majority of people who do arrive unlawfully in Australia (and unlawful is the correct term) do so by PLANE, not by boat.

Visa overstayers etc. are far, far higher in number.

Totally and absolutely WRONG.

Legal arrivals - Visa overstayers who claim asylum average about 13 per day.

Illegal boat arrivals claiming asylum have been easily outstripping visa overstayers ever since Labor watered down the rules - and the gap is widening.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Totally and absolutely WRONG.

Legal arrivals - Visa overstayers who claim asylum average about 13 per day.

Once again, the falsehood about it being somehow "illegal" to seek asylum. No, it isn't.

Visa overstayers in general amount to around 50,000 a year the last time I checked. You're not seriously suggesting the numbers are comparable there surely?

And even if they were, which they aren't, the fact is that both the ALP and the Liberals are guilty of playing an elaborate and cynical shell game, as I said, nothing more than a con, on this issue.

The fact is that the vast majority of those who seek asylum are always, in the end, a) found to be genuine, and b) allowed to take up residence. That was the way it was under Hawke/Keating, under Howard, and now.

Let's be crystal clear on this issue - a bunch of ordinary people have been turned into a political football and exploited in not even very subtle ways, stuffed around with and unjustifiably treated like criminals, over an extended period, for no meaningful purpose other than political gain, and with absolutely no change in the final outcome.

And under Howard, billions of our tax dollars were wasted on this transparently obvious chicanery.

 

[noddy]

You're joking, aren't you ?

******
How different would the poll results be if Gillard was leader ??

We might find out sooner rather than later.