Le Tour De France 2011 - Part 2

[Cruiser23]

God this gap is growing, Voeckler will be up by almost 4 minutes tonight...

Can't believe the've let Voeckler and LL Sanchez get almost 5 minutes today.

 

[sblack]

Voeckler will have 1'54" over LLS, who should have another 1'30" on Hushovd/Cadel

 

[Enriqo]

Moncoutie 2 minutes up on Gadret

+2.4 units for the stage.

 

[Cruiser23]

Thank god, Moncoutie does it fairly easily.

Vince you are on FIRE! Keep it up.

Can't believe i missed Thomas over Rojas, great bet.

 

[Cruiser23]

STAGE 9 -

-1

Stage 1 : +8.35
Stage 2 : +9.20
Stage 3 : -12.50
Stage 4 : +5.32
Stage 5 : 0
Stage 6 : -10
Stage 7 : +11.10
Stage 8 : +11.35
Stage 9 : -1

OVERALL : +22.02

 

[Vince Masuka]

Stage 9

Thomas over Rojas
10 units @ 2.10 (Ias)

Moncoutie over Gadret
9 units @ 1.65 (Bet365)

Stage win/place

Thomas
1 unit @ 41

Casar
1 unit @ 34 2 units @ 14

Gerrans
1 unit @ 51 2 units @ 14

Rolland
1 unit @ 51 2 units @ 14

Charteau
1 unit @ 67 2 units @ 15

Tarramae
1 unit @ 101 1 unit @ 26

Stage 9 +29.85 units

Stages +58.04 units
Casar................Sandy Casar....I can't be upset with that return...but, Sandy! Well done to whoever had LLS too.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

4 units - Moncoutie over Gadret @ $1.65
4 units - Thomas over Boasson Hagen @ $1.88
Stage 9
+6.12 units

TDF Total
-2.06 units

Another great stage for Sas in H2Hs. Glad Gadret started. Well done Vince, you're absolutely slaying them!

 

[Vince Masuka]

Thank god, Moncoutie does it fairly easily.

Vince you are on FIRE! Keep it up.

Can't believe i missed Thomas over Rojas, great bet.

I will definitely be trying Your profits are looking very handy too

4 units - Moncoutie over Gadret @ $1.65
4 units - Thomas over Boasson Hagen @ $1.88
Stage 9
+6.12 units

TDF Total
-2.06 units

Another great stage for Sas in H2Hs. Glad Gadret started. Well done Vince, you're absolutely slaying them!

Cheers mate, got your TDF heading back in the right direction

 

[Vince Masuka]

Wow, Iasbet like throwing up a few decent prices in their markets.

I have jumped on a couple in the last 10 minutes.

Cadel Evans to Podium is 2.11 where as it is 1.36 on Centrebet.

Taaramae is 10.20 for Young rider class, and is 4.00 at Centrebet and really with Gesink appearing below par, I just had to have a piece of that.

Will update the units and that after a nap

 

[Sasquatch]

Blacky, here is my record you requested.

Stage 1: +7.48
Stage 2: -4
Stage 3: -13
Stage 4: -7.2
Stage 5: No Bet
Stage 6: +7.75
Stage 7: +8.60
Stage 8: +19.37
Stage 9: +6.65

Total: +25.65

It's no coincidence that I have started to pick up when the mountains have come around and when the sprints have been handled better. Sprint stages this year have been my downfall with the exception of the Tour Down Under where I cleaned up, but now they have organised themselves sprinting wise and the mountains are here, I'm pulling it back.

The bets from stage 6 onwards were:

5 units Hushovd over Rojas @ $2.55 - WIN (Stage 6)

8 units Cavendish @ $1.55 - WIN (Stage 7)
4 units Feillu over Rojas @ 2.05 - WIN (Stage 7)

6 units Martin over Leipheimer @ $1.62 - WIN (Stage 8)
5 units Cunego over Basso @ $1.75 - WIN (Stage 8)
3 units Velits over Fuglsang @ $2.85 - WIN (Stage 8)
3 units Thomas over Boasson-Hagen @ $2.25 - WIN (Stage 8)
2 units Hushovd over Rojas @ $2.30 - WIN (Stage 8)

5 units Thomas over Boasson-Hagen @ $1.85 - WIN (Stage 9)
4 units Hushovd over Rojas @ $1.65 - WIN (Stage 9)
4 units Moncoutie over Gadret @ $1.65 - WIN (Stage 9)
2 units Hoogerland over Pineau @ $2.20 - LOST (Stage 9)

.3 units Gerrans @ $34 - lost (Stage 9)
.5 units Vinokouorv @ $41 - lost (Stage 9)

If it weren't for that stupid French driver, that Hoogerland H2H would have cashed too.

 

[Enriqo]

Gilbert 1.50 for the Points on Betfair. Anyone thinking of laying it? I'll have to work out just how many points Cav can make up.

 

[Cruiser23]

Gilbert 1.50 for the Points on Betfair. Anyone thinking of laying it? I'll have to work out just how many points Cav can make up.

He's $1.30 at Sportingbet...

Seems fairly low.

 

[TheBigT]

Can not see thor holding on today, looked absolutely buggered after last nights stage.
So, To take the yellow
2 units on Cadel @ $8.30
6 units on Any other Rider (-Evans, Hushovd) @ $2.48

Stage 9
+6.88 units
Total
+2.34

Well done Vince, absolutely killed it.

 

[Vince Masuka]

I am going to come out and say it, I don't think Contador can win. I was hesitant before the tour, and now after the 1st week I have seen a bit more to show me that he is struggling.

A Schleck Win TdF
7 units @ 2.75 (iasbet)

Taaramae Young Rider
5.5 units @ 10.20 (Iasbet)

This price didn't last at all.

Evans Podium
12.5 units @ 2.11 (Iasbet)

It is set up perfectly for Evans to be on the podium at the end. Has looked in great shape, and has missed the trouble that almost everyone else has gotten into.

Overalls now sit at 125 units!

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Cheers mate, got your TDF heading back in the right direction

Thanks mate. Hopefully after the next stage I'll be in the black for the stages, and then I can look at eating into my likely deficit from the overalls.

If Gesink can get his shit together after the rest day, that would also make a big difference.

 

[Enriqo]

A bit of news spreading about Contador's knee today, doesn't sound too good for him.

10 units Andy over Contador @ 1.82 (Sportsbet)

Significantly longer at Sportsbet/IAS than the others.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

DNF Summary

Wout Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
Pavel Brutt (Rus) Katusha Team
Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Pro Team Astana
David Zabriskie (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo
Frederik Willems (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
Amets Txurruka (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
Juan Manuel Garate (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team
Beñat Intxausti Elorriaga (Spa) Movistar Team
Christopher Horner (USA) Team RadioShack
Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling
Tom Boonen (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team
Rémi Pauriol (Fra) FDJ
Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Movistar Team
Iván Velasco Murillo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Team RadioShack
Christophe Kern (Fra) Team Europcar
Jurgen Van De Walle (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto

 

[sblack]

125 units? Isn't 1 unit supposed to be 1% of your bankroll?

 

[Enriqo]

Not completely confident on Gilbert, so have sacrificed 2.5 units to cover with Cavendish 2 @ 4.75 and Rojas 0.5 @ 16.

If Cav wins tomorrow he will be hard to stop, with 3 sprint stages still remaining after that. Gilbert will need to fetch points by going in breaks and taking 20 at the intermediate sprints.

Gilbert wins: +5.1
Cav wins: +5.0
Rojas wins: +3.5

 

[Vince Masuka]

125 units? Isn't 1 unit supposed to be 1% of your bankroll?

It may infact be that way for some, but not for my banks. I outlayed an entire 100 unit bank on overalls earlier, and had a seperate bank of 100 units for the 21 stages. I am up at this point so am able to outlay more where I see value.

 

[kenrosewall]

I'm on Taaramae @ 90's from the start of the tour for Top 6. Given the amount of withdrawals to genuine Top 10 riders, what chance do you guys give this?

 

[joe_bloe]

Looks like another breakaway stage for me.. Only europcar will be wanting to chase for Voekler, but their team is too weak. Looking at teams like fdj.. Cofidis..movistar for the breakaway win today..

Delage @ 81-1 x 1.5 units
Ignatiev @ 67-1 x 2.5 units

 

[Vince Masuka]

This stage looks too tough for Cav I reckon, if a few attack on the last climb it could mean its a sprint downhill with only a few riders left.

Stage 10 win/place

Gilbert 3 units @ 13.50 (Iasbet)

EBH 2 units @ 13.50 (Iasbet)

Goss 2 units @ 25 (Iasbet)

Thomas 2 units @ 48 2 units @ 17

Stage 10

Hinault over Ciolek
11 units @ 1.55 (Bet365)

 

[Cruiser23]

Think i might go down the same route Vince. This seems a little hard for Cavendish to produce two sprints to overcome others. If he does make it to the end, legs will most likely go to the likes of EBH, Goss etc, the more classic/sprinter types rather than the pure sprinter. Will depend if Sky have someone in a break here but i think you could see OPL/Sky even Movistar push the pace and chase the break to try and make things hard for Cavendish. Even if he survives, i can't see him being 100% at the finish. Let's not forget he got the perfect leadout the other day and almost got caught by Greipel. This could be a Stage HTC gives to Goss though i'm sure with the Green on the line they wouldn't have ruled using Cavendish for this stage.

 

[iluvparis]

Don't think Cav really got caught by Greipel though - Greipel jumped early, hit the front and then was overpowered late by Cav and Pettachi.

I was thinking of taking Hinault over Bonnet tonight but given Vince has taken him over Ciolek I have gone with that instead.