Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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Watts is out much to the chagrin of myself and 97% of Bay 13.

REVISED BETS (noting Watts will be a refund)
$131 A.Edwards @ $4
$42 A.Edwards @ $3.75 (has shortened since original post)
$79 Vickery @ $6
$17 Vickery @ $5 (has shorted since original post)
$38 Ellis @ $31 (extra $10 since original post)
 
whilst the labelling of the last 20 seconds which caused tonight to be an overall loser would be described as disappointing, to consider it surprising would be preposterous and rude. do i make myself clear?

in fact the only possible justification for feigning surprise would be to make some sort of pun about "howe did this happen"

in any case, ONWARDS AND UPWARDS with a decidedly sick looking bank of $410 but don't let this put you off putting your faith in the full kelly criterion

$21 Wells @ $21
$15 Bastinac @ $41
$5 Ziebell @ $21
 
UNAPPEALING RESULT would be the description and our balance is reduce to $369

there is no value found in the port v adelaide game so we skip that and go to the suns v bombers however a perusal of those odds also reveals no value and thus the next two days will represent the most profitable two days of this run with a zero dollar net loss
 

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Lenny29 you are now in the red zone of being "due" after a bad start. As we all know, when a person becomes "due" after a bad period, lots of winners come, to balance up the losers that have come so far.

So, I am considering betting up heavily, maybe 2 to 3 x Kelly, to take advantage of how "due" you are.
 
VERY SORRY TO HAVE MISINFORMED BEFORE but after final teams have been announced and specifically due to the withdrawal of wingard & boak we now have some value in today's game and thus the following massive bet will be placed:

$8 Lewis Johnston @ $6
 
we are currently at $361 which to those playing at home is an approx 64% reduction in our balance BUT NEVER FEAR as martin kelly when optimising this optimal bankroll optimising tool was an optimistic man and vowed never to let large reductions get him down

value abounds for tomorrow's game

$15 LeCras @ $13
$4 Gumbleton @ $13
$6 Fyfe @ $41
 
THERE ARE NO PRIZES FOR BEING A GOAL OFF said someone important which means that it most definitely wasn't a crazy good dwayne russell commentary moment but ALAS it does leave us still without a collect and with a dwindling balance BUT NEVER FEAR as there are still i dunno maybe 11 games to go?

with a balance of $336 mr kelly's optimizational tool gives us the following bets for tomorrow:

$19 Dahlhaus @ $11
$3 Campbell @ $11
$2 Savage @ $21
$4 Montagna @ $31
 
Hi Lenny29

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Lenny29 said:
THERE ARE NO PRIZES FOR BEING A GOAL OFF said someone important which means that it most definitely wasn't a crazy good dwayne russell commentary moment but ALAS it does leave us still without a collect and with a dwindling balance BUT NEVER FEAR as there are still i dunno maybe 11 games to go?

with a balance of $336 mr kelly's optimizational tool gives us the following bets for tomorrow:

$19 Dahlhaus @ $11
$3 Campbell @ $11
$2 Savage @ $21
$4 Montagna @ $31
Click to expand...

I'm surprised that Kelly would recommend that you make $2 bets, as opposed to more optimal bankroll growth opportunities such as panhandling.
 
Lenny29 said:
can you give me the best odds of centrebet/betstar/tab/sportsbet come the regular season? i actually reckon this could be profitable again if i could get more than about $2 on anyone with sportsbet
Click to expand...
Certainly. Look forward to having you on board. Just for transparency, we are a division of VITAB, I am sure you are comfortable with that.
 

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lukey dahl gets the bikkies for the first time this year which reminds me of this prophetic quote of mine after about his second game
Lenny29 said:
Going against the grain here but if he plays 50 games i'll be surprised.

a hard runner and great trier with little in the way of tricks. once teams start to focus on him a bit (probably within a few weeks) he'll.be found out
Click to expand...

WHICH WOULD INDICATE ITS NOT JUST THE MGS MODEL THATS BROKEN AMIRITE

balance goes to $512. just the $33 on jeremy cameron @ $3 tonight
 
I WAS BUSY BEING A SUPREME ATHLETE and thus missed the first half of the practice battle of the bridge which (not so) humorously i've just dubbed the "battle of the canasta" but did jeremy cameron spend the first half in a hole in the forward pocket or something? how do you get zero touches in a half?

A: have lenny tip you as a most goals option, of course

balance now $479.

$4 thomas @ $8
$16 wells @ $26
$7 bastinac @ $34
$2 ziebell @ $26
 
four players jagged three goals so you'd hope that ONE OF THE FOUR I PICKED WOULD BE ABLE TO DO SO but alas they scored two goals BETWEEN THE FOUR so back to the drawing board we go with a balance of $446

at this point i have the strong suspicion that mr kelly is taking the piss out of me as these are legitimately the suggested bets for tomorrow:

$1 any other player @ $6
$1 swan @ $26

listed players are cloke, white, a.edwards, elliott, vickery, fasolo, king, s.edwards, hampson, lynch, griffiths, knights, swan, sidebottom, pendlebury, ellis

primary any other selection is ben reid but conca is also a chance from my odds
 
as most would be aware i take myself about as seriously as KardiniaPark takes his personal hygiene which is to say not at all and thus i take sledging with a grain of salt in most cases.

but when an utterly humorless campaigner thinks its a good time to have a crack because i called him out on an uttlerly ridiculous concept, and then that bet gets up, i'm going to be pretty much an arrogant arseh*le for a while on the same medium in which the prediction was made and thus **** YOU ALL BEN REID WON AT $6 **** I'M AWESOME

no really the first goal bet is the source of my pride but IT WASN'T IN THIS THREAD THUS I CHUCKLE INTERNALLY AND MOVE ON. balance is $450

no bet tomorrow but
 

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Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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