Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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16 November (US time):

1u Philadelphia d Utah @ $1.855 (Pinny) W
1u Dallas d Indiana @ $2.26 (Sportsbet) L
1u Orlando d Detroit @ $2.85 (Bookmaker) W
1u New Orleans d Oklahoma City @ $3.25 (TAB) L
0.5u New York d Memphis @ $3.30 (Centrebet) L
0.5u Phoenix d LA Lakers @ $5.04 (Pinny) L
1u Minnesota d Golden State @ $1.952 (Pinny) L
16 November: Out 6u, in 4.705u :thumbsdown:
YTD: +6.645u
 
Close thing on Brooklyn yesterday - thought you had it up until the last minute or two.
Yeah, I was hopeful although the one thing I've learned about NBA this year is that the position of the game with 7-8 minutes left is often irrelevant to how it ends up

In saying that though, if I can identify these sort of games that go to the wire and almost become 50/50 coinflips, and can back sides at $3+ in these games, you'd think I'd come out ahead overall
 

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Yeah, I was hopeful although the one thing I've learned about NBA this year is that the position of the game with 7-8 minutes left is often irrelevant to how it ends up

In saying that though, if I can identify these sort of games that go to the wire and almost become 50/50 coinflips, and can back sides at $3+ in these games, you'd think I'd come out ahead overall
You seem to go close with a lot of those - given any thought to taking them at the line?
 
You seem to go close with a lot of those - given any thought to taking them at the line?
No.

I'm sure Brett or others will jump all over me, but I find it very difficult and frustrating to quantify something that no team is looking to do - which is covering a line. Lots of games have had either small blowouts at the end or leaders have let in lots of points late as all they are trying to do is win the game. Nothing, nothing, frustrates me more than a nothing goal/basket/whatever at the end killing a line and although making money is the main aim of this, enjoyment and my sanity is a big influence too

In any case, I'm not looking to win every bet - if I can win 50% of bets on selections $2+ then that's fine by me
 
No.

I'm sure Brett or others will jump all over me, but I find it very difficult and frustrating to quantify something that no team is looking to do - which is covering a line. Lots of games have had either small blowouts at the end or leaders have let in lots of points late as all they are trying to do is win the game. Nothing, nothing, frustrates me more than a nothing goal/basket/whatever at the end killing a line and although making money is the main aim of this, enjoyment and my sanity is a big influence too

In any case, I'm not looking to win every bet - if I can win 50% of bets on selections $2+ then that's fine by me
Fair call.
 
Today:

1u Philly d Cleveland @ $1.61 (Sportsbet) L
0.5u New Orleans d Indiana @ $4.28 (Betfair) L
1u Charlotte d Toronto @ $1.74 (Betfair) W
1u LA Clippers d Oklahoma City @ $2.60 (TAB) L
1u New York d Dallas @ $1.72 (IAS) L
Jeepers. What a disaster of a day. -2.76u

YTD: +3.893u
 
No.

I'm sure Brett or others will jump all over me, but I find it very difficult and frustrating to quantify something that no team is looking to do - which is covering a line. Lots of games have had either small blowouts at the end or leaders have let in lots of points late as all they are trying to do is win the game. Nothing, nothing, frustrates me more than a nothing goal/basket/whatever at the end killing a line and although making money is the main aim of this, enjoyment and my sanity is a big influence too

In any case, I'm not looking to win every bet - if I can win 50% of bets on selections $2+ then that's fine by me


There's a strong correlation between +ROI% on money lines and ATS coverage. The higher your h2h ROI%, the higher your ATS% would be.

Referring to the italicised, I don't watch any games at all.
 
23/11:

1u Charlotte d Atlanta @ $2.50 (Lux)
0.5u Golden State d Denver @ $3.20 (lux)
0.5u Sacramento d Utah @ $5.20 (Lux)
1u New York d Houston @ $1.602 (Pinny)
1u Clippers d Brooklyn @ $1.741 (Pinny)
1u Memphis d LA Lakers @ $1.562 (Pinny)
 
23/11:

1u Charlotte d Atlanta @ $2.50 (Lux)
0.5u Golden State d Denver @ $3.20 (lux)
0.5u Sacramento d Utah @ $5.20 (Lux)
1u New York d Houston @ $1.602 (Pinny)
1u Clippers d Brooklyn @ $1.741 (Pinny)
1u Memphis d LA Lakers @ $1.562 (Pinny)
eek

-3.438u

might need a break :/
 

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