Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

[Lensen]

Max bet $3.40

You are correct, $3.40 for me not $3.70.

 

[Nothing]

You are correct, $3.40 for me not $3.70.

I've unloaded on it. A new yacht coming my way.

 

[Lensen]

0.25u Jack Watts MGS Melb v St K @ $10 (Betstar)
$12 is available at Sportbset if you wish to tail and have an account that allows you to bet there.

 

[Nothing]

0.25u Jack Watts MGS Melb v St K @ $10 (Betstar)
$12 is available at Sportbset if you wish to tail and have an account that allows you to bet there.

You are a funny man.

 

[Lensen]

You are a funny man.

Just for you, really.

 

[Lensen]

Adding:
1u Western Bulldogs +31.5 vs West Coast @ $1.92 (Flemington Sportsbet)

 

[Lensen]

WINNING BETS
0.25u Jeremy Cameron Most Goals Syd v GWS @ $12 (Sportsbet)
1u St Kilda +12.5 vs Melbourne @ $1.91 - Flemington Sportsbet

LOSING BETS
0.5u Collingwood @ $2.30 (Sportingbet)
1u Richmond -5.5 (HT) @ $1.91 (Centrebet)
1u Collingwood +9.5 @ $2 (TopSport)
1u North Melbourne -7.5 vs Essendon @ $1.917 - Pinnacle
0.5u North Melb d Essendon @ $1.63 - Sportingbet (with refund offer if they score 12 goals but lose)
0.25u Jack Watts MGS Melb v St K @ $10 (Betstar)
1u Western Bulldogs +31.5 vs West Coast @ $1.92 (Flemington Sportsbet)

It felt a better round than this. Oh well, yay most goals for saving me.

Round one
2-7 (-1.59u)

 

[Lensen]

Early(ish) line bets:

1u St Kilda +1.5 v GWS @ $1.91 (Unibet)
1u Collingwood +16.5 v Sydney @ $1.91 (Unibet)
1u North Melb -18.5 v Wst Bulldogs @ $2 (TopSport)

 

[Lensen]

0.25u St Kilda 60+ @ $17 (TAB)

 

[Lensen]

0.25u Jarrad Waite MGS @ $6.50 (Betstar)

 

[Lensen]

0.5u Rich/Carl Over 192.5 @ $3 (TAB)
I reckon this line is probably right at an even money level, has come down to 180.5 each of two given rain concerns but it looks like it will clear and the MCG drains well

A value bet at $3 when it should be closer to $2.20ish given I reckon it's a 50/50 proposition before rain but view the chances of significant rain to be low

 

[Lensen]

0.25u Jarryd Roughead MGS @ $4.25
0.25u Jeremy Cameron MGS @ $2.85
0.25u Lewis Johnston MGS @ $8
0.25u Hayden Ballantyne MGS @ $8
0.25u Travis Cloke MGS @ $5

it's like a sickness

 

[Lensen]

Way too big an over reaction to Mitchell being out.

0.5u Hawthorn @ $1.51 (Sportingbet) with 12 goal refund

 

[Lensen]

1u Melbourne +46.5 @ $1.971 (Pinnnacle)

 

[Lensen]

**** Most Goals.

WINNING BETS
1u St Kilda +1.5 v GWS @ $1.91 (Unibet)
1u Collingwood +16.5 v Sydney @ $1.91 (Unibet)
1u North Melb -18.5 v Wst Bulldogs @ $2 (TopSport)
0.5u Hawthorn @ $1.51 (Sportingbet) with 12 goal refund

LOSING BETS
0.25u St Kilda 60+ @ $17 (TAB)
0.25u Jarrad Waite MGS @ $6.50 (Betstar)
0.5u Rich/Carl Over 192.5 @ $3 (TAB)
0.25u Jarryd Roughead MGS @ $4.25
0.25u Jeremy Cameron MGS @ $2.85
0.25u Lewis Johnston MGS @ $8
0.25u Hayden Ballantyne MGS @ $8
0.25u Travis Cloke MGS @ $5
1u Melbourne +46.5 @ $1.971 (Pinnnacle)

Round two
4-9 (-0.675u)

YTD
6-16 (-2.265u)

 

[Nothing]

**** Most Goals.

Until next time?

 

[Lensen]

Generally prefer to wait until most books have lines out before jumping on but with Dawson & Fyfe suspended you won't see this line again this week (unless they get off)

1.5u Hawthorn +5.5 @ $1.91 (Sporting/Centrebet)

 

[Lensen]

1.5u Adelaide +7.5 @ $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1u St Kilda +64.5 @ $2 (TopSport)
1u Melbourne +22.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet)
1u North Melb +5.5 @ $1.95 (Betstar)
1.5u Carlton +14.5 @ $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)

 

[Thedeftouch]

1.5u Adelaide +7.5 @ $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1u St Kilda +64.5 @ $2 (TopSport)
1u Melbourne +22.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet)
1u North Melb +5.5 @ $1.95 (Betstar)
1.5u Carlton +14.5 @ $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)

"I need the biggest underdogs you have"

 

[Lensen]

Using the Sportingbet "Money Back if Lose by 18 or less" offer:

0.5u Adelaide @ $2.20
0.5u Carlton @ $2.65
0.4u Melbourne @ $3.55

 

[The GOAT]

Strong preference for the underdogs this week. I'd be interested to know how you assessed Brisbane v GC

 

[Lensen]

Strong preference for the underdogs this week. I'd be interested to know how you assessed Brisbane v GC

Gold Coast by 10, not enough of a difference to bet on the -5.5

I reckon you'll see the Saints line in the early 50s by bounce down. Also the Melbourne one is probably more a knock on GWS than a back of Melbourne

 

[Lensen]

i know it's because Deledio's out but Richmond have become backable all of a sudden

1u Richmond -17.5 @ $2 (TopSport)

 

[Lensen]

Using the Sportingbet "Money Back if Lose by 18 or less" offer:

0.5u Adelaide @ $2.20
0.5u Carlton @ $2.65
0.4u Melbourne @ $3.55

Adding
0.5u North Melb @ $2.05

 

[Thedeftouch]

Some big line movements this morning

I wish everyone would leave the early lines alone