Speculation Liam Baker

[Jeremias]

Time for some house cleaning.

1) Do not drag discussions or individual posts over here from other threads or boards.

Feel free to respond to those posts wherever they were posted, if you so choose.

2) Enough with the personal attacks. It’s a long season and this one may go the distance, so if you want to remain a part of the discussion, do it respectfully.

We will use thread bans and infractions if necessary.

 

[Barrybran]

But if we just traded 3 on its own we'd get better than 9 + 23 imo

4 + 25 from Adelaide springs to mind. Sounds absurd but Essendon traded a second rounder to move up one place for Caddy last year. We'd obviously throw something back but that would be a better return on pick 3 than 9 + Baker.

 

[amazingjoshy]

If that is a possibility then I agree with you. But to who?

The depth of the draft is the issue for us. Clubs don't want to trade up. North probably want to split pick 2 so they will get first dibs for example.

These things don't happen in a vacuum. 1 for 2 and 17,18 or whatever is was last year gets done probably every year since drafting began except last year. The circumstances are different every year. Yes we could split 2 into 8 and 12 in 2022. The circumstances are different this year and I don't think a similar outcome is realistic possibility, but would be stoked if proven wrong.

In another year yes we may be able to do even better, but, that doesn't mean it isn't a good deal, or the right thing to do as it stands.

Of course yes, if there is a realistic possibility of splitting pick 3 outside of Baker for better than 9 and 23, then I agree we shouldn't do the 3 for Baker and 9.

I don't know I haven't looked hard enough into who has what picks.

Your original post read like you didn't realise we were getting Liam Baker in both the scenarios you posted, so the only difference is 3 vs 9 + 23. Which isn't a particularly good deal

 

[4tune8]

Yes we would. We'd trade 23 for Baker and then trade 3 for something better than 9 + 23.

And therein lies the conundrum, what value do you place on Baker.

A vice captain with proven leadership credentials.

Voted by his peers as the most courageous player in the league.

A proven finals player who has stood up and delivered on the big stage over a sustained period.

He would be one of the main culture drivers that the young guns can follow by example.

These players just aren't available, they're few and far between.

Just my opinion, but I think he's worth more than just a 2nd round pick, particularly in a young and developing team.

 

[Big_Birdy]

4 + 25 from Adelaide springs to mind. Sounds absurd but Essendon traded a second rounder to move up one place for Caddy last year. We'd obviously throw something back but that would be a better return on pick 3 than 9 + Baker.

That would be better without question. Will need to be done on draft night though is the issue for us. If we know or genuinely suspect North are taking Draper then its gone and we won't risk holding out for that.

 

[amazingjoshy]

And therein lies the conundrum, what value do you place on Baker.

A vice captain with proven leadership credentials.

Voted by his peers as the most courageous player in the league.

A proven finals player who has stood up and delivered over a sustained period.

He would be one of the main culture drivers that the young guns can follow by example.

These players just aren't available, they're few and far between.

Just my opinion, but I think he's worth more than just a 2nd round pick, particularly in a young and developing team.

Well that's what this whole threads about

I was just responding to the other posters scenarios

 

[Big_Birdy]

I don't know I haven't looked hard enough into who has what picks.

Your original post read like you didn't realise we were getting Liam Baker in both the scenarios you posted, so the only difference is 3 vs 9 + 23. Which isn't a particularly good deal

Not in of itself, but the circumstances of this year I think possibly make it so. Or to be more accurate, means our club could think it so without beclowning themselves.

What I think don't make for a hill of beans.

 

[Barrybran]

And therein lies the conundrum, what value do you place on Baker.

A vice captain with proven leadership credentials.

Voted by his peers as the most courageous player in the league.

A proven finals player who has stood up and delivered on the big stage over a sustained period.

He would be one of the main culture drivers that the young guns can follow by example.

These players just aren't available, they're few and far between.

Just my opinion, but I think he's worth more than just a 2nd round pick, particularly in a young and developing team.

This is why a multi team trade works. Richmond fans don't like it but I valued Bolton at 5, Rioli at 12/13 and Baker at 17. Adjusting one down adjusts another up (I don't think Bolton is worth pick 5 personally) but the value works. For us, we get him at our value without compromising yours.

 

[JackOutback]

Richmond fans and the Victorian media seem to be placing a lot of weight on Baker being vice captain yet, interestingly, give it no weight in Tom Barrass

37

Tom Barrass

Age

28

Ht

197cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

6.1

5star

T

0.9

3star

MG

158.5

3star

D

10.1

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.1

2star

M

5.6

5star

T

0.3

1star

MG

139.6

2star

D

11.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

0.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

discussions. Baker is a vice captain in exactly the same way as Barrass is a vice captain: oppo fans didn't even know until it was raised after their trade requests and it means next to nothing.

 

[Barrybran]

That would be better without question. Will need to be done on draft night though is the issue for us. If we know or genuinely suspect North are taking Draper then its gone and we won't risk holding out for that.

Adelaide would trade with North then and we'd use 3 or have a plan in place for the picks we want. The Draper scenario is why I believe we'll just hold 3 until draft night but I would like to think we get Baker for no more than our F2 on its own if that were the case. Richmond will make their value up elsewhere.

 

[Barrybran]

Richmond fans and the Victorian media seem to be placing a lot of weight on Baker being vice captain yet, interestingly, give it no weight in Tom Barrass discussions. Baker is a vice captain in exactly the same way as Barrass is a vice captain: oppo fans didn't even know until it was raised after their trade requests and it means next to nothing.

Not to mention that we're supposed to be happy with 12 + F2 from Hawthorn but for Gold Coast its pick 6 or bust. Same value but the carry on has been beyond ridiculous.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Richmond fans and the Victorian media seem to be placing a lot of weight on Baker being vice captain yet, interestingly, give it no weight in Tom Barrass discussions. Baker is a vice captain in exactly the same way as Barrass is a vice captain: oppo fans didn't even know until it was raised after their trade requests and it means next to nothing.

Yes but did you know he was voted most courageous player?

 

[JackOutback]

Yes but did you know he was voted most courageous player?

 

[Bestbird]

Richmond fans and the Victorian media seem to be placing a lot of weight on Baker being vice captain yet, interestingly, give it no weight in Tom Barrass discussions. Baker is a vice captain in exactly the same way as Barrass is a vice captain: oppo fans didn't even know until it was raised after their trade requests and it means next to nothing.

Same as being a premiership player

 

[4tune8]

This is why a multi team trade works. Richmond fans don't like it but I valued Bolton at 5, Rioli at 12/13 and Baker at 17. Adjusting one down adjusts another up (I don't think Bolton is worth pick 5 personally) but the value works. For us, we get him at our value without compromising yours.

They're probably fair values given the players output/productivity.

Last night's performance showcased the immense value of players who rise to the occasion under the intense pressure of finals. This value extends beyond the field, as the principles of performing under pressure can be imparted through education and leadership by example.

How is a player's value calculated while they are still under contract? Furthermore, does this value increase when a club identifies and targets a player whose addition alone could elevate the team to the next level?

An additional aspect of the valuation question is the value assigned to the contribution of dollars for the relief of salary cap pressure. For instance, if $560k per year is paid towards Rioli's contract, would that equate to what the AFL considers Band 3 compensation, namely, a second-round pick?

These questions must be considered alongside the players' perceived output and productivity. For these reasons, I believe the trades will be significantly in the Tigers' favor, though not to the extent that a deal cannot be negotiated.

 

[4tune8]

Same as being a premiership player

Have a look at last night's final and tell me that a proven finals performer over a sustained period is no more valuable than your average Joe

 

[juss]

Same as being a premiership player

Not sure it effects trade value, but it's certainly a coveted intangible. A guy that can come into your group and share insights and standards from multiple premierships has a lot more to value than a guy coming from a bottom 2 team for five years in shit cultures and poorly run clubs. Yes Richmond aren't that good right this very season, but Baker hasn't just lost all that experience and insight from his time when we were the best side in the comp across multiple years.

It might just mean that the chasing team are more inclined to get that into their group, and the question is does that actually effect what they're prepared to offer? I don't actually know but I certainly know the coaches would value it highly.

 

[JackOutback]

Have a look at last night's final and tell me that a proven finals performer over a sustained period is no more valuable than your average Joe

Don't think either of us need to worry about how a player stands up under finals pressure at this point in time.

 

[Barrybran]

They're probably fair values given the players output/productivity.

Last night's performance showcased the immense value of players who rise to the occasion under the intense pressure of finals. This value extends beyond the field, as the principles of performing under pressure can be imparted through education and leadership by example.

How is a player's value calculated while they are still under contract? Furthermore, does this value increase when a club identifies and targets a player whose addition alone could elevate the team to the next level?

An additional aspect of the valuation question is the value assigned to the contribution of dollars for the relief of salary cap pressure. For instance, if $560k per year is paid towards Rioli's contract, would that equate to what the AFL considers Band 3 compensation, namely, a second-round pick?

These questions must be considered alongside the players' perceived output and productivity. For these reasons, I believe the trades will be significantly in the Tigers' favor, though not to the extent that a deal cannot be negotiated.

This is why I think Richmond fans are setting themselves up for heartache. Noone has disputed the quality of any of these players but it is generally accepted outside of Richmond that these players aren't worth what Richmond fans expect. The scenario I posted earlier had Richmond with five picks to 21 and that was without compensation for Jack Graham, which could very well be pick 22.

As I asked in that post, what is the plan for Richmond this offseason? If it is to collect draft picks like Pokemon, 1) it isn't going to happen and 2) why? If you think you're going to get to draft night with picks 1, 3, 6, 9 and 10, that isn't happening either because there are at least three other teams involved who each have their own agendas.

For this reason, some trades will be in the Tigers' favour while others will not. Richmond will clean up this offseason without having to resort to trying to screw everyone if they are reasonable in their expectations and have a plan (which I expect the club is much more reasonable about than their fans).

 

[garlic munchers]

Have a look at last night's final and tell me that a proven finals performer over a sustained period is no more valuable than your average Joe

Seeing we are on the Liam Baker thread:

Baker GF 2020

14 disposals and four inside-50s, added pressure around contest and accept he was a good contributor.

Baker GF 2019

Played half-back and had 12 disposals. Neither Brent Daniels who was injured early on or Green (who played predominately mid) got off the leash when Baker player on them.

Summary

Not sure too many clubs coughing up a 1st rounder for this type of proven finals performance, as opposed to an out and out mid or good key position player (no Ben McKay doesn't count, irrespective of what AFL house conjured up).

Seems a slightly better than Brandon Ellis at the same age type acquisition = mid 2nd rounder.

 

[docko911]

Seeing we are on the Liam Baker thread:

Baker GF 2020

14 disposals and four inside-50s, added pressure around contest and accept he was a good contributor.

Baker GF 2019

Played half-back and had 12 disposals. Neither Brent Daniels who was injured early on or Green (who played predominately mid) got off the leash when Baker player on them.

Summary

Not sure too many clubs coughing up a 1st rounder for this type of proven finals performance, as opposed to an out and out mid or good key position player (no Ben McKay doesn't count, irrespective of what AFL house conjured up).

Seems a slightly better than Brandon Ellis at the same age type acquisition = mid 2nd rounder.

He was in his second and third seasons of AFL. Across 2021 - 2024 he has averaged just under 20 disposals a game as a non-primary midfielder.

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick 6 + 17 = 2776 points
Pick 3 = 2234 points

If your future 2nd is pick 23 again it will be worth 815 points. Now that’s a little off on my behalf because there would be a surplus of 273 points which would bring your 3rd pick (pick 41 = 412 points) up to about pick 28 value. Of course I haven’t factored in the amount pick 17 this year and your future 2nd/3rd will drop back in the draft. 17 probably 3-4 space but your picks probably 5+, and then there is also the risk of you having a better year than this year.

All in all, no we are not trading Baker for the equivalent of pick 25-30 because it involves a 3 place pick upgrade in a really even draft.

Doesnt that depend on the quality of the player being targeted at pick 3/4?

If it was a points trade alone you are correct. But it isnt.

The value which points dont take into consideration is the quality of rhe players being looked at. List strategy. And the number of picks you hold and how to best employ them.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

I know I am in the minority among Eagles supporters but if the draft top end is as deep as they say, and West Coast is of that belief, then getting Baker for just a pick downgrade is a bit of a no-brainer for me. The ability to hold onto 23 is a large incentive.

If the draft is as deep as they say - 9, 12*, 23, 30*, 59 is a better hand than 3, 12*, 30*, 59

Its why Schofield said the would take it on his pod. We can get in an experienced player to help us hopefully improve competitiveness while keeping a relatively high pick.


Now throw your eggs Eagles fans.

I was saying to a mate today regarding trades in general (in regards to throwing eggs)

If one side or the other side is up in arms, the trade is probably one sided.

If both sides of supporters are up in arms, it’s about right

 

[Rich01]

This is why I think Richmond fans are setting themselves up for heartache. Noone has disputed the quality of any of these players but it is generally accepted outside of Richmond that these players aren't worth what Richmond fans expect. The scenario I posted earlier had Richmond with five picks to 21 and that was without compensation for Jack Graham, which could very well be pick 22.

As I asked in that post, what is the plan for Richmond this offseason? If it is to collect draft picks like Pokemon, 1) it isn't going to happen and 2) why? If you think you're going to get to draft night with picks 1, 3, 6, 9 and 10, that isn't happening either because there are at least three other teams involved who each have their own agendas.

For this reason, some trades will be in the Tigers' favour while others will not. Richmond will clean up this offseason without having to resort to trying to screw everyone if they are reasonable in their expectations and have a plan (which I expect the club is much more reasonable about than their fans).

Richmond won’t be trying to screw everyone.
Nor will other clubs throw away offers and walk away.

The distorted reality of what Baker is worth really sits with a small handful of Richmond, West Coast and Fremantle fans in this thread.

 

[jthanos]

Same as being a premiership player

fyi, dual Premiership player 19' & 20', so the facts don't get lost !!

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Here is a more accurate points value for picks, based on prior trades up or down.