Speculation Liam Baker

[Jeremias]

Time for some house cleaning.

1) Do not drag discussions or individual posts over here from other threads or boards.

Feel free to respond to those posts wherever they were posted, if you so choose.

2) Enough with the personal attacks. It’s a long season and this one may go the distance, so if you want to remain a part of the discussion, do it respectfully.

We will use thread bans and infractions if necessary.

 

[DragoDelph]

Even then I think they'd only do it if their Intel is solid that they'll still get same player. Not really across who they're keen on but think I'd read fans were keen on Draper. Seems unlikely he would get past Adelaide so if the recruiters want him I don't see them going for it.

If they want Reid (just throwing a name out, don't kill me Eagles fans ) and are confident he will be there then it's a no brainer.

It would also suck if you trade down, then a couple days later another clubs trades up ahead of you, and you're sitting there all manic crazy wondering if its to get your player.

 

[Barrybran]

Matt Clarkes comments about wanting to hit the draft hard but also bring in some experienced players suggests they would prefer to maintain the volume of draft picks whilst also bringing in mature talent. Free agency could be part of that, but with Baker sounds like they would be open to pick downgrades.

If 9 or 10 were too much of a drop, maybe Pick 6 becomes the pick thats needed to get this moving.

Say Pick 3 and 23, for Baker, 6 and 39. Values Baker roughly at 23 (I know pick value doesn't mean a lot, just a representation of overall value), but would seem to match what both clubs desires are. Maintains the volume of picks for West Coast and keeps a good top 10 pick. For the Tigers, it upgrades 2 picks (we already have a bunch of picks that either need upgrading or trading into next year.

I think with the evenness of this years draft, those early 2nd round picks (21-25) will become very valuable on draft night 2, and could gain some really good value in trades.

If this values Baker at pick 23, then it makes it 3 for 6+39.

I dont think pick 39 is quite enough, id be looking for a pick in the vicinity of pick 20 at least

3 for 6+Baker wouldve been a better suggestion imo, whether it'd get accepted depends on how the eagles draft board looks

Yeah, 3 for 6 + 21 would be much better though we'd then still be giving up 23 for Baker, leaving us with the same number of picks plus Baker. It might happen. I would have thought 3 + F2 for 6, 21 + Baker might be better from our side. Leaves us with four solid picks (3, 13, 21, 23) plus player movements.

 

[Barrybran]

It would also suck if you trade down, then a couple days later another clubs trades up ahead of you, and you're sitting there all manic crazy wondering if its to get your player.

I would have thought holding 3 into draft night would be better for us. We should be able to get Baker with our F2 or Hawthorn's F1.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I would have thought holding 3 into draft night would be better for us. We should be able to get Baker with our F2 or Hawthorn's F1.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Matt Clarkes comments about wanting to hit the draft hard but also bring in some experienced players suggests they would prefer to maintain the volume of draft picks whilst also bringing in mature talent. Free agency could be part of that, but with Baker sounds like they would be open to pick downgrades.

If 9 or 10 were too much of a drop, maybe Pick 6 becomes the pick thats needed to get this moving.

Say Pick 3 and 23, for Baker, 6 and 39. Values Baker roughly at 23 (I know pick value doesn't mean a lot, just a representation of overall value), but would seem to match what both clubs desires are. Maintains the volume of picks for West Coast and keeps a good top 10 pick. For the Tigers, it upgrades 2 picks (we already have a bunch of picks that either need upgrading or trading into next year.

I think with the evenness of this years draft, those early 2nd round picks (21-25) will become very valuable on draft night 2, and could gain some really good value in trades.

I think pick 23 downgrade + F2nd is the plam here

Pick 23 + 40 (Darling trade) + F2nd for Baker + 29 + 47

So something convoluted like that. I think Eagles woulnt care if we went from 40 to 47 given chance Malaki Champion goes towards either pick

 

[Shueygod]

I think pick 23 downgrade + F2nd is the plam here

Pick 23 + 40 (Darling trade) + F2nd for Baker + 29 + 47

So something convoluted like that. I think Eagles woulnt care if we went from 40 to 47 given chance Malaki Champion goes towards either pick

That’s overpay, Baker is worth a f2.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think pick 23 downgrade + F2nd is the plam here

Pick 23 + 40 (Darling trade) + F2nd for Baker + 29 + 47

So something convoluted like that. I think Eagles woulnt care if we went from 40 to 47 given chance Malaki Champion goes towards either pick

Are you giving pick 41 back with Darling?

 

[mrposhman]

Yeah, 3 for 6 + 21 would be much better though we'd then still be giving up 23 for Baker, leaving us with the same number of picks plus Baker. It might happen. I would have thought 3 + F2 for 6, 21 + Baker might be better from our side. Leaves us with four solid picks (3, 13, 21, 23) plus player movements.

No way Richmond are giving up Pick 21 or F2nd in the trade.

BTW your last trade suggestion you realise values Baker at only the upgrade from Pick 6 to Pick 3. No way he is traded for that. There is some serious delusion going on here. Those in the West seem to excel at throwing the delusion around at Richmond fans on here, but then throw their own ridiculous trade suggestions out there.

 

[stallon]

No way Richmond are giving up Pick 21 or F2nd in the trade.

BTW your last trade suggestion you realise values Baker at only the upgrade from Pick 6 to Pick 3. No way he is traded for that. There is some serious delusion going on here. Those in the West seem to excel at throwing the delusion around at Richmond fans on here, but then throw their own ridiculous trade suggestions out there.

Do you genuinely think Richmond fans havent been throwing delusional trade options around?

 

[Jez1974]

Im just not that keen on Baker, what can I say. Id rather keep the picks.
If pick 23 was used id be a little unhappy but I get it, definitely dont want to give up 13

Agreed not heaps keen on him either.

 

[mrposhman]

Do you genuinely think Richmond fans havent been throwing delusional trade options around?

Where did I say they hadn't? All I said was WC fans were calling them out for posting delusional trade options, and then threw out delusional options themselves. Pot / kettle etc.

 

[Jez1974]

Where did I say they hadn't? All I said was WC fans were calling them out for posting delusional trade options, and then threw out delusional options themselves. Pot / kettle etc.

Stay at Richmond or go to Freo. They're the best options

 

[JackOutback]

Are you giving pick 41 back with Darling?

Some people seem to think we can get a better pick by offering to pay some of Darling's substantial back-ended contract but North are hardly facing a salary cap squeeze. The deal will be done for a token pick or future pick and Darling's contract off our books.

 

[Barrybran]

No way Richmond are giving up Pick 21 or F2nd in the trade.

BTW your last trade suggestion you realise values Baker at only the upgrade from Pick 6 to Pick 3. No way he is traded for that. There is some serious delusion going on here. Those in the West seem to excel at throwing the delusion around at Richmond fans on here, but then throw their own ridiculous trade suggestions out there.

I don't think the proposed trade happens because I would expect Richmond would want something back.

At the end of the day, Baker is not worth anything more than 23 or F2 to us. If Richmond fans want more than that, they'll have to try their luck with Freo but I would expect a similar response from Freo fans.

If Richmond were fortunate enough to get a first for Baker, something else of value is going back to West Coast or Freo.

Richmond will still have plenty of picks work with whether it's 3, 10, 13, 17, Hawthorn's first, 23 or West Coast's second that goes back for Baker and whatever else leaves Richmond with him.

 

[juss]

I don't think the proposed trade happens because I would expect Richmond would want something back.

At the end of the day, Baker is not worth anything more than 23 or F2 to us. If Richmond fans want more than that, they'll have to try their luck with Freo but I would expect a similar response from Freo fans.

Love how the fans are now making the deal

 

[Barrybran]

Love how the fans are now making the deal

You have seen where this discussion is taking place, right? FWIW, I think Baker goes for 23 or F2 from West Coast or 27 from Freo (as part of the Bolton trade). I don't think Richmond are going to push too hard on that either as they'll be focused on higher priority trades.

 

[eastfreo75]

Love how the fans are now making the deal

Don't spoil our fun and self-importance.

 

[mrposhman]

I don't think the proposed trade happens because I would expect Richmond would want something back.

At the end of the day, Baker is not worth anything more than 23 or F2 to us. If Richmond fans want more than that, they'll have to try their luck with Freo but I would expect a similar response from Freo fans.

If Richmond were fortunate enough to get a first for Baker, something else of value is going back to West Coast or Freo.

Richmond will still have plenty of picks work with whether it's 3, 10, 13, 17, Hawthorn's first, 23 or West Coast's second that goes back for Baker and whatever else leaves Richmond with him.

But thats exactly what I'd proposed in my trade scenario just yesterday.

3 and 23 for Baker 6 and 39. Heck you might even use 39 on Roberton.

I'm not proposing a 1st round pick for Baker by itself, and if you look back in this thread I never have. It just doesn't make sense for West Coast, but the talk about trading Pick 3 down is through the media and Don Pyke didn't deny it (guess where this would have come from then - most probably a leak from clubland somewhere), so it indicates West Coast (the club - not its BF fans) are open to it.

The trade above provides both clubs with more value than just trading Pick 23 by itself.

For Richmond, it moves a couple of picks further up the draft - thats our stated aim
For West Coast - it maintains your draft hand (number of picks) whilst also getting in some mature talent (stated aims by Don Pyke and Matt Clarke)

 

[Farang83150]

Hopefully pick 3 has nothing to do with baker if he comes in.
23, better still F2 or don't come would be ideal IMO.

 

[Morro]

You have seen where this discussion is taking place, right? FWIW, I think Baker goes for 23 or F2 from West Coast or 27 from Freo (as part of the Bolton trade). I don't think Richmond are going to push too hard on that either as they'll be focused on higher priority trades.

LOL, dude have you seen that state of us? They are all priorities FFS. Its also not like Baker is some fringe spud.

 

[Barrybran]

But thats exactly what I'd proposed in my trade scenario just yesterday.

3 and 23 for Baker 6 and 39. Heck you might even use 39 on Roberton.

I'm not proposing a 1st round pick for Baker by itself, and if you look back in this thread I never have. It just doesn't make sense for West Coast, but the talk about trading Pick 3 down is through the media and Don Pyke didn't deny it (guess where this would have come from then - most probably a leak from clubland somewhere), so it indicates West Coast (the club - not its BF fans) are open to it.

The trade above provides both clubs with more value than just trading Pick 23 by itself.

For Richmond, it moves a couple of picks further up the draft - thats our stated aim
For West Coast - it maintains your draft hand (number of picks) whilst also getting in some mature talent (stated aims by Don Pyke and Matt Clarke)

39 would be handy but I think we should be able to get 40 from North for Darling (with 59 going back). Roberton will be a low pick swap at best.

On face value, 3 + 23 for 6, 39 + Baker works but I feel our priority is the draft. Taking 6, 13, 39 + 40 into the draft would be terrible. I think we're open to trading pick 3 but we also want good value out of it. In 2022, we traded 2, 40 + Willie Rioli for 8, 12, Port's F2 + Port's F3.

I see any deal for pick 3 being in that same vein - a top 10 pick + a top 20 pick with some something minor going back. That's why I think any deal involving Baker and us involves our F2. It's less than what Richmond want but if Richmond can get a better primary asset, I think they'll be happy with that.

The above is also why I think we ask for two firsts from Hawthorn. It creates a better trade asset that helps grease a trade like this, especially if you get pick 6 and we ask for that back for pick 3 AND we ask for Baker. I understand there has to be something in it for Richmond as well.

But the gist of the above is that I see us going to the draft with a top 10 pick, another top 15 pick, and hopefully two picks in the 20's or early 30's, regardless of any player movements. I don't know our targets but I sense that we're looking to bring in several highly rated kids to build with those we have brought in over the past three off-seasons.

 

[mrposhman]

39 would be handy but I think we should be able to get 40 from North for Darling (with 59 going back). Roberton will be a low pick swap at best.

On face value, 3 + 23 for 6, 39 + Baker works but I feel our priority is the draft. Taking 6, 13, 39 + 40 into the draft would be terrible. I think we're open to trading pick 3 but we also want good value out of it. In 2022, we traded 2, 40 + Willie Rioli for 8, 12, Port's F2 + Port's F3.

I see any deal for pick 3 being in that same vein - a top 10 pick + a top 20 pick with some something minor going back. That's why I think any deal involving Baker and us involves our F2. It's less than what Richmond want but if Richmond can get a better primary asset, I think they'll be happy with that.

The above is also why I think we ask for two firsts from Hawthorn. It creates a better trade asset that helps grease a trade like this, especially if you get pick 6 and we ask for that back for pick 3 AND we ask for Baker. I understand there has to be something in it for Richmond as well.

But the gist of the above is that I see us going to the draft with a top 10 pick, another top 15 pick, and hopefully two picks in the 20's or early 30's, regardless of any player movements. I don't know our targets but I sense that we're looking to bring in several highly rated kids to build with those we have brought in over the past three off-seasons.

The suggested trade isn't that far different to the 2022 trade that you have quoted.

Theres a couple of things that differ.

1 - Compared to the 2022 draft, there isn't as much difference between the top 5 and the next group as there was in 2022, so clearly you would receive more of a premium based on the players available
2 - I don't think you've really taken into account the difference between 2 and 8, and 3 and 6. I know its not a great gauge as points don't matter so much (and I revert back to point 1 above) but on a points scale, the difference beteen 2 and 8 and 3 and 6 is huge, 966 points versus 483.

If you are expecting the same sort of trade as that, then get ready to be disappointed.

Between Points 1 and 2 above, you'd need to tone down the premium significantly that the 40 and Rioli vs 12, Ports F2 and Ports F3 would have given you, so getting a top 10 (like pick 6 AND a pick in the teens is not likely to happen, especially as Baker is included in the trade).

Maybe if that slide down was closer to 8. Let say we got 9 from Freo as part of the Bolton trade, then you compare (2022 trade 1st, suggested trade in brackets):

Pick 2 (3) for Pick 8 (9)
Rioli vs Baker
Pick 40 (23) for 12 F2 and F3 (39)

In that instance, we would probably need to find a pick around 15-17 to balance the trade out IMO, but would you really want that? I'd have thought having that high pick (in the top 6) is probably better than 2 that will be between 10-20 by the time bids come.

I'm pretty sure all these scenarios will be reviewed, but the thought pattern that some of your fans have over a token pick (because they don't actually want him), differs significantly from the club that has thrown big money at Baker to sway him to move. Baker seems a very loyal person, so you'd think the $'s thrown at him by both West Coast and Freo will have been sizeable.

 

[Forty3]

it will be pick 13 as the crux of the deal.

Probably some late pick shuffling that doesn't really amount to anything except make both sides feel like they've achieved a little bit of a win.

 

[stallon]

it will be pick 13 as the crux of the deal.

Probably some late pick shuffling that doesn't really amount to anything except make both sides feel like they've achieved a little bit of a win.

Baker isnt worth pick 13 mate

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Of course there is a view that Baker wanted out of Punt Road because of certain players and with Dusty, Rioli and Bolton likely all out, might he decide on staying put? Maybe I am hearing false whispers, but the reality is that all is not well at Punt Road and hence the exodus.

Facts about Baker:-
He is a good player, never been close to AA
He is short
His strength is contested football and he can at times be a turnover merchant
He is a utility without a set role he has nailed, does them all quite well but not elite at any one position
He is a strong on-field and off-field leader
He is loyal
He is out of contract
Did I say he was out of contract?

In my opinion, that is a mid to late R2. His market price on a sunny day is around that of Neal Bullen or on a dark day Taylor Adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

.

In a world where WCE need talent for it's next premiership push, the best I would go is a F2. To add value, I might agree with Tigers to pay overs for Graham and to give them a band 3 FA compo pick which currently would be 21 (which clearly is higher much than his market value). So let the AFL come to the rescue with new picks since WCE are not Norf.

Maybe there is higher value elsewhere. No problems, Baker can go there. Value is all about the market and if Freo want to give up their Port R1, then let them do so.