Coach Lions - Has the Fagan era already peaked?

[Kobe Gryant]

They're just the team that's always been good, but not quite good enough. Richmond & Geelong always had their number, and then they missed their moment last year.

Every era has got one. Collingwood, St Kilda and the Dogs have littered that category this century. Freo had a moment or two, likewise Adelaide in the early 00s. It happens.

There's this weird belief that if you rebuild you're guaranteed a premiership. It doesn't work that way.

They rebuilt, peaked with a GF appearance, and now look to be on the other side.

Hardly the first to do it, and certainly won't be the last.

 

[GC2015]

When you're top 4 or going deep into finals 5 years in a row, the drop-off has to come some time. Making the eight will be an uphill battle from here.

Almost every modern team that has a highly successful period adheres to the 3-5 consecutive year premiership window of finishing in the top 4 and being a legitimate contender during those years:

Brisbane Lions 2001-04 window: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up
2000 - 6th (eliminated in the semi final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2001 - 2nd (premiers)
2002 - 2nd (premiers)
2003 - 3rd (premiers)
2004 - 2nd (runner up)
2005 - 11th

Geelong Cats 2007-11 window: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2006 - 10th
2007 - 1st (premiers)
2008 - 1st (runner up)
2009 - 2nd (premiers)
2010 - 2nd (eliminated in the prelim)
2011 - 2nd (premiers)
2012 - 6th (knocked out in the elimination final and not really considered a legitimate premiership contender that year)

Hawthorn Hawks 2011-15: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2010 - 7th (eliminated in the elimination final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2011 - 3rd (prelim)
2012 - 1st (runner up)
2013 - 1st (premiers)
2014 - 2nd (premiers)
2015 - 3rd (premiers)
2016 - 3rd (although they finished in the top 4, the finals series proved it was over for the Hawks with a straight sets exit)

Richmond Tigers 2017-2020: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 prelim
2016 - 13th
2017 - 3rd (premiers)
2018 - 1st (prelim)
2019 - 3rd (premiers)
2020 - 3rd (premiers)
2021 - 12th

Brisbane Lions 2019-2023: 5 years, 1 runner up, 2 prelims, 2 semi finals
2018 - 15th
2019 - 2nd (semi final)
2020 - 2nd (prelim)
2021 - 4th (semi final)
2022 - 6th (prelim; started the season slowly but proved they were still a top 4 team in the finals)
2023 - 2nd (runner up)
2024 - ???

Brisbane are theoretically in their 6th year of a premiership window and history suggests even the very best teams tend to fall at this point in time after putting themselves in a position to be a legitimate flag contender for 4-5 years beforehand. Add in some off field distractions like we're seeing at the moment and it seems like the wheels can fall off the wagon very quickly when a team is at this stage of its development.

 

[Shane Heard]

Why would you suppose that? Never said Rance wasn't good/great, where I disagree is when he is put up there with the all time greats. They also did a pretty good job of making GF's without him btw.

He’s not a great ffs.

Just played his role as a defender.

You think Matty Scarlet or SOS ever gets credited as a great defender or superstar of the game?
Or Sean Wellman..or countless other CHBs that kill their opponent week after week?

Think about it…

 

[joe444]

Geelong Cats 2007-11 window: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2012 - 6th (knocked out in the elimination final and not really considered a legitimate premiership contender that year)

Um, no. They entered the finals in white hot form, having won 6 of their last 7. They'd beaten both Hawthorn and Sydney in that period. Their only loss was a controversial 5 point defeat in Perth against West Coast.

And of course they went on to make the prelim the next year. Retrospect can make curious judgments.

 

[lionsrules]

Almost every modern team that has a highly successful period adheres to the 3-5 consecutive year premiership window of finishing in the top 4 and being a legitimate contender during those years:

Brisbane Lions 2001-04 window: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up
2000 - 6th (eliminated in the semi final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2001 - 2nd (premiers)
2002 - 2nd (premiers)
2003 - 3rd (premiers)
2004 - 2nd (runner up)
2005 - 11th

Geelong Cats 2007-11 window: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2006 - 10th
2007 - 1st (premiers)
2008 - 1st (runner up)
2009 - 2nd (premiers)
2010 - 2nd (eliminated in the prelim)
2011 - 2nd (premiers)
2012 - 6th (knocked out in the elimination final and not really considered a legitimate premiership contender that year)

Hawthorn Hawks 2011-15: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2010 - 7th (eliminated in the elimination final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2011 - 3rd (prelim)
2012 - 1st (runner up)
2013 - 1st (premiers)
2014 - 2nd (premiers)
2015 - 3rd (premiers)
2016 - 3rd (although they finished in the top 4, the finals series proved it was over for the Hawks with a straight sets exit)

Richmond Tigers 2017-2020: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 prelim
2016 - 13th
2017 - 3rd (premiers)
2018 - 1st (prelim)
2019 - 3rd (premiers)
2020 - 3rd (premiers)
2021 - 12th

Brisbane Lions 2019-2023: 5 years, 1 runner up, 2 prelims, 2 semi finals
2018 - 15th
2019 - 2nd (semi final)
2020 - 2nd (prelim)
2021 - 4th (semi final)
2022 - 6th (prelim; started the season slowly but proved they were still a top 4 team in the finals)
2023 - 2nd (runner up)
2024 - ???

Brisbane are theoretically in their 6th year of a premiership window and history suggests even the very best teams tend to fall at this point in time after putting themselves in a position to be a legitimate flag contender for 4-5 years beforehand. Add in some off field distractions like we're seeing at the moment and it seems like the wheels can fall off the wagon very quickly when a team is at this stage of its development.

I’d play devils advocate here and say I actually think that we aren’t even in the same league as the earlier examples you’ve brought up.
2019 … easy draw no one saw us coming
2020…. Pfft we never left seq…. We weren’t even that good.
2021 …. Last 30 seconds we beat a depleted west coast team in the final h/a game to sneak in the 4. Should’ve finished 5th.
2022 was the most realistic ladder finish and a reflection of where the team was at in the post Covid era.

I think the Covid years glorified us with the benefits of home game advantage. If they were proper afl seasons with travel for us we would never have made the 4 in either years.

2023 was good and showed improvement.

 

[FootyLad0]

They're just the team that's always been good, but not quite good enough. Richmond & Geelong always had their number, and then they missed their moment last year.

Every era has got one. Collingwood, St Kilda and the Dogs have littered that category this century. Freo had a moment or two, likewise Adelaide in the early 00s. It happens.

There's this weird belief that if you rebuild you're guaranteed a premiership. It doesn't work that way.

They rebuilt, peaked with a GF appearance, and now look to be on the other side.

Hardly the first to do it, and certainly won't be the last.

This

 

[kreuze_missile]

They are 100% cooked. Window shut. Gone.

You just can't compete with only 1 great midfelder. Neale's won 2 brownlows because of it but he's got absolutely no friends in there. McCluggage is a B grader when they need him to be elite. Dunkley has fallen well short of what they wanted. The rest would strugle for games at many other clubs.

The rebuild is going to be long and painful. Zorko, Lyons, Fort, McCarthy, Neale, Daniher & Cameron all 30+ at season end. Take these names away and you can't even mini-rebuild with what's left. Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

28

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

28 at year end on the back end of his prime, even he'll be past it by the time they can get near it again.

I don't see them being competitive until at least 2029.

 

[yamborghinidream]

Think the Fagan era probably has already peaked insofar as I doubt the Lions make a grand final again with this list, but I’m not writing off their finals chances this year just yet. They’ll rattle off some wins at home at some point and scrape in to the bottom half of the 8 for mine. I just don’t see them doing much damage unless things change dramatically.

Pretty much set-up for the same arc as Sydney 22-23, just a closer GF loss.

You can't make top 4 starting 0-3 and you can't win the comp from outside the top 4, so it would seem their ceiling this year is jagging a finals win or two

 

[kreuze_missile]

Pretty much set-up for the same arc as Sydney 22-23, just a closer GF loss.

Sydney had/has youth all over the field and a good midfield.

Brisbane don't have any of that.

There will be no arc.

 

[Rotayjay]

Almost every modern team that has a highly successful period adheres to the 3-5 consecutive year premiership window of finishing in the top 4 and being a legitimate contender during those years:

Brisbane Lions 2001-04 window: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up
2000 - 6th (eliminated in the semi final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2001 - 2nd (premiers)
2002 - 2nd (premiers)
2003 - 3rd (premiers)
2004 - 2nd (runner up)
2005 - 11th

Geelong Cats 2007-11 window: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2006 - 10th
2007 - 1st (premiers)
2008 - 1st (runner up)
2009 - 2nd (premiers)
2010 - 2nd (eliminated in the prelim)
2011 - 2nd (premiers)
2012 - 6th (knocked out in the elimination final and not really considered a legitimate premiership contender that year)

Hawthorn Hawks 2011-15: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2010 - 7th (eliminated in the elimination final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2011 - 3rd (prelim)
2012 - 1st (runner up)
2013 - 1st (premiers)
2014 - 2nd (premiers)
2015 - 3rd (premiers)
2016 - 3rd (although they finished in the top 4, the finals series proved it was over for the Hawks with a straight sets exit)

Richmond Tigers 2017-2020: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 prelim
2016 - 13th
2017 - 3rd (premiers)
2018 - 1st (prelim)
2019 - 3rd (premiers)
2020 - 3rd (premiers)
2021 - 12th

Brisbane Lions 2019-2023: 5 years, 1 runner up, 2 prelims, 2 semi finals
2018 - 15th
2019 - 2nd (semi final)
2020 - 2nd (prelim)
2021 - 4th (semi final)
2022 - 6th (prelim; started the season slowly but proved they were still a top 4 team in the finals)
2023 - 2nd (runner up)
2024 - ???

Brisbane are theoretically in their 6th year of a premiership window and history suggests even the very best teams tend to fall at this point in time after putting themselves in a position to be a legitimate flag contender for 4-5 years beforehand. Add in some off field distractions like we're seeing at the moment and it seems like the wheels can fall off the wagon very quickly when a team is at this stage of its development.

Excellent post - there has been a lot of talk of 'premiership windows' but this quantifies it. It also reminds me of our last window:

2014 - 10th
2015 - 7th (lost semi-final)
2016 - 5th (lost semi-final)
2017 - 1st (lost grand final)
2018 - 12th

So that was two semis, one granny, one top-4 finish. One might say the window lasting a year or two was proportional to the fact we didn't actually win a premiership, and we didn't have the list quality of the Hawks, Cats, Tigers etc. In 2015 we really didn't seem ready, but there were times in 2016 when we looked like legitimate contenders, and only missed the top 4 by a whisker.

 

[BStaff17]

Excellent post - there has been a lot of talk of 'premiership windows' but this quantifies it. It also reminds me of our last window:

2014 - 10th
2015 - 7th (lost semi-final)
2016 - 5th (lost semi-final)
2017 - 1st (lost grand final)
2018 - 12th

So that was two semis, one granny, one top-4 finish. One might say the window lasting a year or two was proportional to the fact we didn't actually win a premiership, and we didn't have the list quality of the Hawks, Cats, Tigers etc. In 2015 we really didn't seem ready, but there were times in 2016 when we looked like legitimate contenders, and only missed the top 4 by a whisker.

You had the minor premiership in 2016 if you beat West Coast at AO in the last round If I recall.

That was a costly loss as it dropped you guys out of the 4 from 1st in the final round.

Should have had 2 home finals instead and probably make a prelim or GF from there.

 

[peetoo]

If we do use the premiership window analogy (and I think it is flawed) some clubs windows are locked that they don’t open very far. You get the same nice fresh air as a fully open one, but you can’t get through it.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Almost every modern team that has a highly successful period adheres to the 3-5 consecutive year premiership window of finishing in the top 4 and being a legitimate contender during those years:

Brisbane Lions 2001-04 window: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up
2000 - 6th (eliminated in the semi final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2001 - 2nd (premiers)
2002 - 2nd (premiers)
2003 - 3rd (premiers)
2004 - 2nd (runner up)
2005 - 11th

Geelong Cats 2007-11 window: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2006 - 10th
2007 - 1st (premiers)
2008 - 1st (runner up)
2009 - 2nd (premiers)
2010 - 2nd (eliminated in the prelim)
2011 - 2nd (premiers)
2012 - 6th (knocked out in the elimination final and not really considered a legitimate premiership contender that year)

Hawthorn Hawks 2011-15: 5 years, 3 flags, 1 runner up, 1 prelim
2010 - 7th (eliminated in the elimination final and not considered a legitimate flag contender)
2011 - 3rd (prelim)
2012 - 1st (runner up)
2013 - 1st (premiers)
2014 - 2nd (premiers)
2015 - 3rd (premiers)
2016 - 3rd (although they finished in the top 4, the finals series proved it was over for the Hawks with a straight sets exit)

Richmond Tigers 2017-2020: 4 years, 3 flags, 1 prelim
2016 - 13th
2017 - 3rd (premiers)
2018 - 1st (prelim)
2019 - 3rd (premiers)
2020 - 3rd (premiers)
2021 - 12th

Brisbane Lions 2019-2023: 5 years, 1 runner up, 2 prelims, 2 semi finals
2018 - 15th
2019 - 2nd (semi final)
2020 - 2nd (prelim)
2021 - 4th (semi final)
2022 - 6th (prelim; started the season slowly but proved they were still a top 4 team in the finals)
2023 - 2nd (runner up)
2024 - ???

Brisbane are theoretically in their 6th year of a premiership window and history suggests even the very best teams tend to fall at this point in time after putting themselves in a position to be a legitimate flag contender for 4-5 years beforehand. Add in some off field distractions like we're seeing at the moment and it seems like the wheels can fall off the wagon very quickly when a team is at this stage of its development.

Yep they are simply the age demographic of a dynasty list at the end of their run but with no success to show for it. It’s rebuild time again already.

 

[WillHayward]

Weird that they recruited Doedee I thought.

Injury prone bloke in a position they don't really need cover for.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Those thinking we are in for a long rebuild haven’t done their homework.

Levi Ashcroft and Sam Marshall on the way next year will rejuvenate our midfield, coupled with Will Ashcroft.

The majority of our talented players are still early/mid 20’s as well and we just drafted 2 decent forwards who are plugging away in the VFL.

I’m biased but I’d be shocked if we go into the abyss. Maybe 1-3 years out of the finals as we re-group with younger talent and a new coach but not expecting to reach West Coast/North levels of bad.

 

[Tom14]

Weird that they recruited Doedee I thought.

Injury prone bloke in a position they don't really need cover for.

Intercepting third tall is exactly a position we needed cover for. I love Ryan Lester, but the fact that he's still one a consistent player is an issue.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Stick a fork in em. They are done

 

[10571z]

Plenty of great sides miss their chance at a flag, this is just another to add to the list.

This seasons over, reset for next year.

 

[GC2015]

Berry is not getting any better. He is what he'll be as a football player.
Rayner will forever tantalize.
Bailey has all the tools to become a jet.
Ashcroft will be coming back from an ACL and a third of all athletes are never the same again.
Hipwood turns 27 at the end of the season and he still looks like he has the body of a 19 year old.

Throw in the likes of Zorko, Neale, Daniher and McInerney (all 30+) they could be in for a world of hurt if they do not get it right next year.

Just keep in mind, they have Levi Ashcroft coming through as a F/S pick this year and some believe he's the best player available in this year's draft. There might be an Academy jet or two coming through as well so they could potentially get around this if they're able to use the draft/trade/free agency period wisely.

The coach is probably their most immediate issue.

 

[XhazzafootyX]

They are done for this year.

But get Levi in, with his brother back from his acl and they can be top 4 next year

I’d change coaches tho

Also resign Hugh asap.

 

[fnerd]

It peaked last year and is now on the way down , tumbling down .

 

[My Tilly]

Just keep in mind, they have Levi Ashcroft coming through as a F/S pick this year and some believe he's the best player available in this year's draft. There might be an Academy jet or two coming through as well so they could potentially get around this if they're able to use the draft/trade/free agency period wisely.

The coach is probably their most immediate issue.

Well if they nail that, and Levi becomes a gun, they should remain thereabouts as their backline still has a good age profile.

Really can't ever see Daniher or Hipwood delivering. One of them may peak for a year but the other will always be off. Daniher was like this at Essendon. On his day, absolutely brilliant. Not sure there's another big man like him. But those games are few and far between. Does he really have the desire?

 

[sexyhunk]

they are done this year but ashcroft coming back next year be huge

 

[WillHayward]

they are done this year but ashcroft coming back next year be huge

I just see Ashcroft as a Neale replacement.
Keeps them the same but doesn't improve them. Neale has been huge.
Probably Fagan goes and let's see what a new coach gets out of them

 

[Daka]

The club imploded in VEGAS BABY!

Don't even know if that is really true, but it is funny.