List Mgmt. Luke Jackson - Yay or Nay?

[mightymouse75]

I know its going against the grain a bit here but I will offer a more positive view on things by passing on an informed and independent view.

My brother-in-law is a recruiter for an AFL team - neither at the Demons or for us. Now he's a draft guy and not in list management so bear that in mind but I was chatting to him last night and the view of the recruiting and list management guys he's chatted with at his club is that our 2 firsts plus a second is still a good deal for us. He'd throw in the future 2nd and be happy with it even though by his own admission he values draft picks higher than many in the industry he's in.

As an aside he personally had Jackson rated 6th overall in his draft year - interestingly behind both Serong and Young so that's a big yay for us. His current view is Jackson is well ahead of where he projected he'd be and is potentially going to be better than he first thought he would be, which was very bloody good. He now sees Blicavs level as his floor which is very nice but expects him to blow past that pretty easily and, importantly, pretty soon. Someone at his club thinks he'll impact games as much as Jeremy Cameron does now (albeit in a different way and in a different role obviously) and that he'll do that within the next few years which would also make the contract he'd be on good value too. That's a nice idea to consider whilst also being impossible to prove.

Like the majority on here I also hope we get him for this and next year's firsts and nothing else, but I thought I'd point out its not just Melbourne fans who think that's a bit of a bargain.

With that said I'll withdraw and allow the gnashing of teeth to continue.

Gnash gnash

 

[dominguez]

This is a hand of poker and west coast are bluffing- just call them on it, say that Jackson is all theirs and watch them back out. Come on belly and co- don’t get sucked in.

If we pulled out West Coast could trade pick 2 to Port for 8 and F1, trade that F1 for a first rounder this year and trade 8 and F2 to Melbourne for Jackson. From a Melbourne perspective 8 and F2 from WC is roughly the same as our offer of 13 + F1 if Freo finish top 5 next year and WC finish bottom 4.

 

[theGav56]

If we pulled out West Coast could trade pick 2 to Port for 8 and F1, trade that F1 for a first rounder this year and trade 8 and F2 to Melbourne for Jackson. From a Melbourne perspective 8 and F2 from WC is roughly the same as our offer of 13 + F1 if Freo finish top 5 next year and WC finish bottom 4.

Regardless of a trade for Jackson I would trade down pick 2. Most of the top picks have issues for them.

Wardlaw has injury history.
Scheezel has religious/community commitments and doesn't seem to want to move interstate.
Tsatas is too outside.
Cadman could be a possible although early at 2, but does hit a need.

Around pick 8 they have good options, and a F1 could be worth the wait.

 

[eastfreo75]

Regardless of a trade for Jackson I would trade down pick 2. Most of the top picks have issues for them.

Wardlaw has injury history.
Scheezel has religious/community commitments and doesn't seem to want to move interstate.
Tsatas is too outside.
Cadman could be a possible although early at 2, but does hit a need.

Around pick 8 they have good options, and a F1 could be worth the wait.

Pick 2 is worth a lot more than Pick 8 and Ports F1.

 

[dominguez]

Pick 2 is worth a lot more than Pick 8 and Ports F1.

That's impossible to call at this stage.

Pick 8 could be the next David Mundy and play 300+ games. Pick 2 could be a fail like Schache or permanently injured like Morabito.

Most of the top 5 picks look like being Victorian kids so if WC want a local lad it makes sense to trade down.

 

[eastfreo75]

That's impossible to call at this stage.

Pick 8 could be the next David Mundy and play 300+ games. Pick 2 could be a fail like Schache or permanently injured like Morabito.

Most of the top 5 picks look like being Victorian kids so if WC want a local lad it makes sense to trade down.

You can only go with what picks median is.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

That's impossible to call at this stage.

It really isn't.

Sometimes Pick 1 turns into Jack Watts and rookie picks turn into Aaron Sandilands, but given a choice you know which one you'd rather take to the draft and it isn't even close.

 

[freo84]

Everyone stop worrying...Damien Barrett has spoken.

 

[Wobbly Punt]

Bit of 20/20 hindsight here but this is the time of year for it. Cerra wanting to go to Melbourne last year and Melbourne wanting him but not being able to afford it long term or having the picks for it looks a little different now. Especially as we asked for Jackson as part of it with us apparently floating Cerra + a pick for Jackson.

In the same situation as Melbourne were in I'd probably want my club to hold firm and hope to convince Jackson to stay too but now he's chosen to go a year of Cerra plus a decent pick would look pretty good to them in retrospect.

Could've been a classic win/win but that hypothetical deal also means we are without one of Erasmus or Amiss so from a Freo perspective I'm certainly glad it didn't go that way but I'm not sure Melbourne will end up feeling the same.

 

[Joao]

Cerra to Melbourne = no Amiss.

We should be happy.

 

[FDH16]

He's never wrong

That's correct.

 

[freo_leo29]

Cerra to Melbourne = no Amiss.

We should be happy.

I reckon we still take Amiss but don't get Erasmus


Tigers don't take Amiss IMO and Blues certainly don't

 

[s_wd6]

I reckon we still take Amiss but don't get Erasmus


Tigers don't take Amiss IMO and Blues certainly don't

Tigers were very keen on him

 

[CapitalA]

I reckon we still take Amiss but don't get Erasmus


Tigers don't take Amiss IMO and Blues certainly don't

Pretty sure tigers take amiss that is the whole reason we picked him first.

 

[freo_leo29]

Nah we reached for Amiss for sure because we wanted a forward, don't think Tigers do the same

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I don’t think Amiss was a reach. What he’s shown at AFL level for a 3 game forward is extremely encouraging, even for a top ten pick.

 

[theGav56]

I don't put much stock in the idea of 'reaching'. On here it is usually based on a fuzzy consensus of poster opinions which may have little in common with how club recruiters see players.

 

[CapitalA]

Nah we reached for Amiss for sure because we wanted a forward, don't think Tigers do the same

You are wrong.

 

[CapitalA]

I don’t think Amiss was a reach. What he’s shown at AFL level for a 3 game forward is extremely encouraging, even for a top ten pick.

What he has shown at wafl too, he was leading the goal scorers before the kidney injury for wafl league.

 

[Taylor]

Talk at the time was Richmond were going to take either Amiss or Gibcus

 

[freo_leo29]

I don’t think Amiss was a reach. What he’s shown at AFL level for a 3 game forward is extremely encouraging, even for a top ten pick.

He was still a reach at the time, he climbed draft boards very late because Freo were targeting a forward

 

[King Huskii]

He was still a reach at the time, he climbed draft boards very late because Freo were targeting a forward

He wasn't a reach

 

[mightymouse75]

Nah we reached for Amiss for sure because we wanted a forward, don't think Tigers do the same

You were a reach .. amiss wasn't

 

[freo_leo29]

He wasn't a reach

You guys do realise that being a "reach" doesn't mean he is bad


He was literally a "reach" though, he moved up rankings late because we were picking a forward, that's how it works


I don't know why everyone is taking such offense on this, I'm not saying he is bad

 

[Taylor]

It's going to be difficult to make a case for a player being taken earlier than their draft ranking "should" have had them when the only verified metric we have to work on is the ranking of what pick they were selected with at the draft.

Occasionally we will get snippets of information from a club recruiter, or even a snapshot of a club's draft ranking chart like we did with Melbourne I believe in 2019 - but even then it's too isolated.

I would like to see a future where, after the draft is done, the clubs submit their ranking charts to a central source who collates them, averages out the positions (noting the highest rank and lowest rank for the player but not identifying the clubs) and presents a club ranking comparison to the draft.

Until then we are basing draft position expectations, and I say this with great respect, off the opinions of people who aren't paid by the clubs putting in the huge investments to select the players.