Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[iluvparis]

This guy,did lol
View attachment 1272115View attachment 1272117

Legit could have penned it myself

 

[dontlimitme]

i have both my CATCENTIVISE and WINXENTIVISE posts locked and loaded for tomorrow

 

[FallingLiefs]

Delphi fails vet check after weeks of queries about fitness. Sadly for Simon from Sunbury he’s now a pen job off last start disappointment.

 

[4THAWN]

Anybody worried about the breeding of Incentivise i.e. shamus award >> snitzel >> redoutes choice??

only query for mine. Guess you could argue barrier again if he happens to be posted wide or further back than hoped as well.

 

[mcnulty]

His rating skyrocketed going from 2000-2400, off a torrid run. He may not improve off that heading out further, but that’s not really a recipe for a horse that you think is going to struggle with the trip.

Even if he can’t run to the same rating, a half decent ride should see him home on class alone. Only danger for me is if that CC took too much out of him.

 

[Ah12]

Anybody worried about the breeding of Incentivise i.e. shamus award >> snitzel >> redoutes choice??

only query for mine. Guess you could argue barrier again if he happens to be posted wide or further back than hoped as well.

Look further and you will find Hyperion crosses at least 8 times into his bloodline. A horse that only got better over further and won an Ascot Gold Cup.

 

[54Dogs]

If Delphi loses the Melbourne cup not only will I chop my foreskin off I will chop my right testicle off as well

Bump

 

[Mobythepom]

Delphi fails vet check after weeks of queries about fitness. Sadly for Simon from Sunbury he’s now a pen job off last start disappointment.

Surprised there's not been a reaction to that news on Betfair. If it gets the go ahead it's under a cloud. Spanish Mission has nearly doubled in price.

 

[Chism]

Get On on Ch78 is going to be a ripper tonight at 7:30.

Not so much for the actual Cup which Incentivise has a mortgage on unless it fails at 3200m but more so the support card which just gets better each year.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Get On on Ch78 is going to be a ripper tonight at 7:30.

Not so much for the actual Cup which Incentivise has a mortgage on unless it fails at 3200m but more so the support card which just gets better each year.

Best support card in memory
Have picked out something in each race I’m keen on
Normally cup day is a minefield of crap , this year not so much

had today off on annual leave and tomorrow too
Pumped !

 

[iluvparis]

Best support card in memory
Have picked out something in each race I’m keen on
Normally cup day is a minefield of crap , this year not so much

had today off on annual leave and tomorrow too
Pumped !

Dissapointing lack of field sizes - used to be close to 16-20 every race with people trying to farm owners tickets and every race pretty much a must play from the tri/F4 perspective.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Anybody worried about the breeding of Incentivise i.e. shamus award >> snitzel >> redoutes choice??

only query for mine. Guess you could argue barrier again if he happens to be posted wide or further back than hoped as well.

Not based on what I saw in the Caulfield Cup.

 

[Mazza1234678]

If the track is a road surely that’s also a positive for it

Whilst it’s good on soft, I reckon it’s better on a good track

That Tatts cup win on a bone dry track was electric on the clock

 

[TBellicious]

Yes does look a v strong support card tomorrow. Unfortunately looks as if Thursday may have been affected but I think we can live with that.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yes does look a v strong support card tomorrow. Unfortunately looks as if Thursday may have been affected but I think we can live with that.

Never been a fan of oaks day or the oaks in general
Is the ugly step child of the 4 day carnival

 

[No eye deer]

Just a heads up, PointsBet is offering $4.50 for Incentivise to win by 1 length.

 

[Ah12]

Does Inceny drift in the morning or do i just load up now.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Overview,

Tougher year than most as you basically have to do form on 1 horse work out probability of winning then do the form without him in case it goes wrong where nearly everything has put in a stinker or other form factors making it a query. Will assess Incentivise price tomorrow to work out how to play it. Could be a fill up on exotics the way tote pools are progressing.

Top 5
2- Inc - Should stay, should win. Could be a bet.
21- TR - I think stays, last 100 of last few starts been ok, on 51 gets to a good spot. Would be a weak winner but that's where we are at.
15- Pondus - fair profile, fair ability. Some chance but would surprise
22- FA - Take out the Coongy and I am keen, love the profile, cannot find excuse for that I think he runs well but likely touch short. Remains winning chance
24 - SL - Getting somewhat reasonable price now and will only get better on tote. Moderate talent compared to previous years and risk to implode drags him down.


Ones I oppose
1- TP - Weighted out of it, a bit behind last year and higher weight
3- SM - risk job on the vets
4- VE - Dry track 3200m top weight should run well but won't be winning
6- TCO - Risk off 1 poor run no excuses dry track 2 mile can forgive, price sensitive
7- Delph - Vets. Nope. A Shame.
12- Persan - Bit short on talent, price sensitive not super keen on him putting in a winning performance but top 5..
16 - Grand Promenade - Actually don't think he will get the 2mile. back wide and circle field or risk of being stranded. risking on price.

Fillers
14,17,19,23 - Probably not good enough
5,8,9,10,11,13,18,20 - Not good enough

 

[iluvparis]

Does Inceny drift in the morning or do i just load up now.

It's been rock solid at this 3.05/3.10 level most of the day - I'd be surprised if you got much better tomorrow

 

[Turnover]

Done the form. Settled on number 2.

 

[99 Problems]

I’m backing Incentivise. The risk is he doesn’t stay, but if we knew he did he’d be well into the red. Spanish Mission, Sir L and VE will have me either in front or square. I may cover a couple more of the real roughies. Not really any great insights there given the market, but if if any of the others burn me I’m happy to cop it.

Genuinely always thought the Diva would be the shortest price I’d ever take in a Cup. Let alone taking shorter a horse that was rolled in a Toowoomba maiden in the Autumn. Funny times.

 

[Turnover]

Fair rant from that dude, Paris u big meany.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I've found a G1 winner at both 1600m & 3200m.
The Sydney Champion.
Tie The Knot.

one of the most overrated gr1 winners i've seen ...

 

[botswana42]

Also backing #2.
Winner
Incentivise - you can all read the form guide, he's a freak, he'll win. he's a good bet
Exotics/top hopes
Persan- honest stayer,proven at trip/track
Floating Artist- horse on the up, on the min. like the profile, but probably unders
Great House - don't mind the horses off the lexus. can't believe I've got him as top4 hope tbh given his recent defeats in Kembla BM78.hope, but unders.
Twilight Payment - in good form will be there, but weight should ensure he can't win this year.
also #4 and #6 in some f4s

risking Tralee rose, GP off their pox form, and spanish mission off his issue and profile, most internationals come young and with runs at 2400m and on the up. pondus not good enough. gai and boss talking down sir lucan which should re-ssure me, but is just greying me up even more. no idea

If i was to say something of actual note, i think horses that have not faced incentivise (16 GP, 21TR, 3 SP, 1 TP and admittedly 22&23) are under the odds as they are unexposed and people are holding out false hope that they could be the one to challenge.They just haven't had their little protection bubble burst yet, but will just be flogged as others have (such as persan, The chosen one, VE maybe even ocean billy) who are comparatively better 'value' for exotics as i have put.

Good luck and thanks to all (iluvparis) who have been advising to take some juicy prices (34 incent double, 31 SP, 61 SL)

 

[iluvparis]

If i was to say something of actual note, i think horses that have not faced incentivise (16 GP, 21TR, 3 SP, 1 TP and admittedly 22&23) are under the odds as they are unexposed and people are holding out false hope that they could be the one to challenge.They just haven't had their little protection bubble burst yet, but will just be flogged as others have (such as persan, The chosen one, VE maybe even ocean billy) who are comparatively better 'value' for exotics as i have put.

Excellent call this - accurate call