My official betting thread

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hhorue said:
What is this I don't even...

You seem to half know what youre talking about but then i see you bet up to 20% of your bankroll per wager? Please.

Thread should be moved to the glory hunters forum on SBR.
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Why don't you tell me how I am wrong? Why don't you prove to me what I am doing is wrong? This is the general gist of responses to my bankroll management.

The question still stands:

You have $1000 and you have 1 bet per week that you know has a 60% chance of covering. What staking method optimizes your +EV after 1,000 bets?
 
madpunter said:
I wouldn't mind seeing that WAFL regression model, Brett, if you're ok giving it away. I had been discussing with arkie how I'd like to learn about regression in Excel and it sounds like that'd be a great tool to learn with. PM me if you're willing, but I understand if you're reluctant.

To the negative posters: give the bloke a chance, he clearly knows his stuff and has value added to this forum. It's very easy to snipe from the sidelines, and not very productive.
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Yeah that's fine. If you're working with Arkie, go ahead and work on it together. I'm cool if he sends it to you. However, remember the model I've given out was my first attempt at creating a model. I gave it a few 'band-aid' additions a bit later on (like adjusting variable differentials against a power rating).

It's messy and parts of the model I didn't end up using (ie: the ROAD-AIR matrix, and the travel distance matrix). But there's enough in there to deconstruct how it all conceptually links together.
 

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brett128 said:
Yeah that's fine. If you're working with Arkie, go ahead and work on it together. I'm cool if he sends it to you. However, remember the model I've given out was my first attempt at creating a model. I gave it a few 'band-aid' additions a bit later on (like adjusting variable differentials against a power rating).

It's messy and parts of the model I didn't end up using (ie: the ROAD-AIR matrix, and the travel distance matrix). But there's enough in there to deconstruct how it all conceptually links together.
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Thanks for that, will PM Arkie.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
People tend to be a lot more tolerant of arrogance if the person in question is a big winner.

Maybe tail his > 57% plays and forget the rest; let him worry about turning the Queen Mary around?

You'll probably save yourselves some grey hairs and angsty posts. :)
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I am glad you are back, please post more :thumbsu:
 
brett128 said:
Why don't you tell me how I am wrong? Why don't you prove to me what I am doing is wrong? This is the general gist of responses to my bankroll management.

The question still stands:

You have $1000 and you have 1 bet per week that you know has a 60% chance of covering. What staking method optimizes your +EV after 1,000 bets?
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I would think a model doesn't as proof but results do. Have you made profit with your current method? I dont care enough about betting to follow too closely. But if your bankroll is increasing, who cares what people think of your model. If its decreasing, well thats your money.
 
Picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking anyway. Providing you're betting with positive EV, just about any half-decent staking method that doesn't put you in serious danger of busting out will work fine. The reverse is not true.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking anyway. Providing you're betting with positive EV, just about any half-decent staking method that doesn't put you in serious danger of busting out will work fine. The reverse is not true.
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Your first sentence contradicts your second. Achieving the bolded, whilst holding your nerve yet also betting to come somewhere near maximising your potential profits, is what correct staking is all about. You essentially said, "picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking, so long as you're staking correctly."
 
madpunter said:
Your first sentence contradicts your second. Achieving the bolded, whilst holding your nerve yet also betting to come somewhere near maximising your potential profits, is what correct staking is all about. You essentially said, "picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking, so long as you're staking correctly."
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I think he is just saying picking winners with a crap model is better than picking losers with the best model.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking anyway. Providing you're betting with positive EV, just about any half-decent staking method that doesn't put you in serious danger of busting out will work fine. The reverse is not true.
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Yeah I agree. Bankroll theory is ancillary to knowing what the right side is long term. If you have long term edge, you will slowly but surely reach a point where your money saturates the market.
 
madpunter said:
Your first sentence contradicts your second. Achieving the bolded, whilst holding your nerve yet also betting to come somewhere near maximising your potential profits, is what correct staking is all about. You essentially said, "picking winners is about a billion times more important than correct staking, so long as you're staking correctly."
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No I didn't. What I said was providing you're not over-betting your bankroll so badly that you could easily bust out with normal variance, staking is not nearly as important as picking winners.

If you're betting with negative EV, the correct staking is 0% of your roll. That highlights fairly well where staking sits relative to getting an edge.
 
I've forecast what i'll be down on AFL this weekend, and I've got down for a minimum amount that I expect to turnover on each bet that I'm happy to get not knowing final teams or WX.

Lines that will move up by Friday morning:

Hawthorn -21.5/-22.5 @ 62% secured on Monday : Currently at -24.5/-25.5. I'd expect another 3-4 point move up. Waiting for -29.5 to scalp back and pull off the middle.

Lines that will move down by Friday morning:

Western Bulldogs +49.5 @ 58% : 4-5 point move down
GWS +50.5 @ 58% : 3-4 point move down
Fremantle +17.5 @ : 58% 2-3 point move down

Totals that will move up by the first bounce:

Hawthorn vs Geelong @ 188.5 : 3-4 point move up. I got this two days ago at the same line of 188.5.
Collingwood vs St Kilda @ 188.5: 2-3 points left in the move. I got this two days ago at 183.5.

Bets for the official record:

Hawthorn -21.5/-22.5 @ 62%
Western Bulldogs 1st QTR ONLY +11.5 @ 60%
GWS 1st QTR ONLY +12.5 @ 60%
Fremantle +17.5 @ 58%
Hawthorn vs Geelong OVER 188.5 @ 57%
Collingwood vs St Kilda OVER 188.5 @ 55%

There will be more AFL, NRL and S15 bets prior to games as usual.
 

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Why would you take the middle? If you are confident you will win at the original line, why would you change that bet to a possible (small chance) big win with a more probably small loss?
 
Sasuke said:
Why would you take the middle? If you are confident you will win at the original line, why would you change that bet to a possible (small chance) big win with a more probably small loss?
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I over bet Hawthorn expecting to middle back what I don't want in action. You could consider part of the outlay is what I genuinely want in action, and the rest is essentially a bet on the line moving (moving far enough that is) to middle back for a little extra +EV.
 
Final additional bets for Friday:

Roosters +5 @ 55%
Roosters vs Dragons UNDER 40.5 @ 57%
 
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