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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
My official betting thread
- Thread starter brett128
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Why? I assume Brett took the 5.0 at Pinnacle which is now at 1.93. Marginally better than the 5.5 1.91 at Centrebet and certainly better than the heap of 4.5 out there.
- Jul 4, 2012
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- #429
Agree with this, though note the exception that if part of it is bet for the PURPOSE of middling, as Brett suggested, it's an OK strategy.
As long as the second bet is EV+ on its own then it should be taken. No point otherwise. Simple as that.
- Jul 4, 2012
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- #431
That's true, theoretically.... but it gets clouded when you've put money into it beyond what you should, IE more than you should from your bankroll, because you were "sure" that the line would move.
Take the example of a bloke with a 10K roll, who puts 5K on this line, because he has Kelly's "private wire" about the line moving. Even if he doesn't think that it's +EV to back the other side, from a financial point of view if the line moves 10 points or whatever, he still should.
- Thread starter
- #432
The difference of taking a bet anywhere between a range of 4.5 and 5.5 is 0.2% in win % ATS (at most) in NRL. I just finished up compiling a push chart and making a half point calculator for NRL last week.
If you took +5.5 @ 55% ATS, taking +4.5 would mean your win % ATS would be 54.8%. Moving by half points to or off the '5' in NRL is negligible.
Burgundy
Senior List
- Nov 30, 2010
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Taking a +5.5 line is just as bad imo, you have to know the value of a point and +5 or 5.5 in NRL is a waste
Princess Wafflewaffle
Debutant
- Jun 30, 2012
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Tonights bet under 193.5 points 1.5 units @$2.04 betfair. just as a lol I cleaned the whole market up. Is it just me or has betfair died with any form of betting 3+ hours before the game Loss.
Pretty sure I will leave the total lines straight out alone for a while. I am just off on them lately
Pretty sure I will leave the total lines straight out alone for a while. I am just off on them lately
- Thread starter
- #439
I'll scalp back the action I don't want at Geelong +27.5 (worst case) and have a middle with a small amount of +EV.
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Yeah, that was my next question; how large a middle do you estimate you need to be profitable with, say, $1.91 lines?
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Ta, that sounds about right.
- Thread starter
- #443
Disappointing 3-1 night with my big 62% play not getting up.
However for the first time since having an exposed record, I am now > 50% at 58-58-1. It's taking a while, but I'm slowly turning that Queen Mary around to > 55%.
However for the first time since having an exposed record, I am now > 50% at 58-58-1. It's taking a while, but I'm slowly turning that Queen Mary around to > 55%.
- Thread starter
- #448
Dude, that's how you count a push. That's how everyone counts a push. If you're not getting a refund on your bet, then that's not a push.
If you go 0-0-100, you need to count it in some way, as you haven't made zero bets.
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
My head hurts.
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
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Doesn't a half win suggest you are returning half a dividend, as in a dead heat situation?
By your logic, 0-0-100 would be a 50% win rate, which doesn't seem right.
By your logic, 0-0-100 would be a 50% win rate, which doesn't seem right.
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