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yeah i will eventually. with AFL, i'm a lot more confident than NRL
 

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Hawthorn -22.5 @ 55%

Carlton vs Hawthorn UNDER 185.5 @ 55%

Brisbane vs Cronulla UNDER 38.5 @ 55%

Highlanders vs Chiefs UNDER 45.5 @ 55%

I'm down already so I release now. I have a long flight back to Australia.
 
Parramatta +2.5 @ 55% (Bet 365)

Parramatta vs Penrith UNDER 42.5 @ 55%

Brumbies -4.5 @ 55%

Crusaders vs Hurricanes UNDER 52.5 @ 55%
 
Hawthorn -22.5 @ 55% WIN

Carlton vs Hawthorn UNDER 185.5 @ 55% LOSS

Brisbane vs Cronulla UNDER 38.5 @ 55% WIN

Highlanders vs Chiefs UNDER 45.5 @ 55% LOSS

9-12 ATS
 
West Coast -71.5 @ 60%

Western Bulldogs +30.5 @ 55%

Sydney -69.5 @ 57%

Richmond vs Fremantle UNDER 181.5 @ 55%

West Coast vs Gold Coast UNDER 187.5 @ 55%

Essendon vs Western Bulldogs UNDER 188.5 @ 55%
 
This is why kelly betting or estimating your winning odds at 55-60% etc are stupid. You are 13-18 ATS.
If you could average $1.93 odds at a 57% estimate your average recommended bet is $1076.
Right now you would have placed 31*$1076=$33356 of bets for a $26997 return leave you $3541 in your bankroll.

As an ex poker player you should be aware that variance is always there to kick you in the ass.
I have used poker to supplement my income for over 5 years and have averaged over a 15bb/hr winrate in my local game
for at least the last 2years that I have been tracking. I use a minumum 25 buyin bankroll and split any profits very month
at 40% for toys/holidays etc and 60% to grow my bankroll. I also use a 3buying stop loss if I am running bad.
In the last 2 days I lost 6 buyins or 25% of my roll to fairly standard play/hands.
Some of these were(this is not bad beats, just standard) KK<AA allin preflop, AA vs 55 on a 225 flop in a 3bet preflop situation.
AKdd vs 99 on a 875dd board in a 4bet preflop situation. KK<AQ all in preflop and 78dd<QQ on a Jx56dd board when I flatted a raise on the button.
All of these are standard and I did not lose my cool over any of them and would have played my opponents hands pretty similar post flop.

There are many ways too make money sports betting and modeling can help but pushing your roll to the Nth degree will not get you there.

A lot of people don't like multis and saying they maximize loses is certainly true but if you understand the AFL they are a great tool.
I find information rather than modeling in the AFL tends to key more. For example the biggest bet I placed all year was Nth Melb vs Adelaide
last week at +19.5 on betfair at $1.96. This was solely based on it being at Etihad(the most neutral ground in the afl) and the crows being widely
tipped to be playing with the flu. Any sportsman will tell you it is harder to play with the flu or chest congestion than a hurt shoulder or arm.
One is a matter of will power and one you have no control over.

In terms of multis this weekend I had west coast over 60 into sydney over 60 at $2.25. Modelling would suggest i needed to 45% sure to make
this a profitable bet and the straight odds suggest a 67% chance x a 67% chance would result in wins at a 44.89% chance of success.
Anyone though who has a clue though would have suggested though it was closer to a 80% chance x a 70% chance at a 56% return or a 26%
+ev return.

You are obviously a smart guy when it comes to following other peoples ideas and working with numbers but I suggest you get a better hold on your sport.

Not that it matters and hindsight is 20-20 but my 3 multis today were
sydney 60+ - westcost 60+ at $2.25
westcoast 47+ - sydney 80+ at $3.1
Adelaide win-Sydney 40+-Essedon win at $2.10

All obviously won but I will say I bet < 5% of my bankroll on each event and I would have been shocked (but not stunned as shit happens)
if I had not won at least 1 of these.

On a final note. I would not describe myself as the worlds best sports better. I believe I have an edge but I believe the biggest edge you can develop is
by following a sport as intensely as you can. I was originally from NSW but have lived the last 8 years in Tasmania and Victoria. In the NRL now I only bet totals
and +12.5 start as part of multis. I just can't follow individual teams as closely as I can in the AFL. In league I like to play consistently strong defensive teams with
the 12.5 start as they are unlikely to give up enough points to really hurt. Even if these are bets such as the storm at home @1.15. Add these to a coinflip game at
$1.91 = a $2.20 return. The coinflip at a 50% return * a believed 90% return on the $1.15 game = a 45.45% chance of win vs a needed 45% return to be profitable.
Obviously if I can tip at 53% in the coinflip game I will win at 47.7% return for a win. If you restrict your betting to tyour top 4-5 selections each week rather than betting
all the games it really isn't hard to bet at over the break even of 52.5%.

All in all a long rambling post and I seriously joined just to counteract this supposed genius who I have read espouse jargon terms for the last week.
It reminds me of when I was running a branch of one of the worlds top 10 by market capitalisation company's and all the other ******ed managers would think they
were smart by espousing terms such as leverage, Scalable, disambigulate, and synergy without actually ever knowing how to develop or implement a strategy.
All in all I am sure the OP can come close to 52.5% in his bets but by following his criteria of maximising his betting amounts he will quickly go bust.

Any serious sports better will tell you that a terrible weekend of 4-10 is not that unlikely. Unusual in that it might happen only once a year but if you are following the op
that one weekend a year will close to bust you. As for tomorrow I am not greatly in love with any of the games but would probably bet in order:
Melbourne +26.5 @ 2.08 on betfair. Melbourne have been decent the last few weeks and brisbane are not that good. Manage to keep games close but don't win big. Obvious concern here is how melbourne go without the big Clark but Jmar should dominate and allow Melbourne to win enough contested ball to keep it close.
Port at +47.5 @2.22 on betfair. Only reason for this one is that the amount of money bet on the cats with a few of ports big guns out is staggering. It is at geelongs home ground but it seems everyone is struggling to judge the wind there at the moment. The public is rarely right and like most things in life you should not follow the herd. If you want to bet the Cats you are better off betting that port score 0-60 @$1.90 on TAB as cats have averaged 106 points over 3 games there this year with those being vs GWS, Melbourne and Richmond. Even with the tigers decent form they are not exactly a powerhouse.
North +18.5 @ $2 It really is a coin toss this game and I actually think backing North at $3.30 for the win probably makes more sense.

On a final note Scott Thompson at $9.6 and $2.62 for top 5 in the Brownlow is my pick there.

Best of luck to all

If you would like me to open my own betting thread let me know but it will only be for the less pretentious betters. Just bets and thoughts, no modeling.
 

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BjFromUrMum for president.

Join in the weekly threads, always can do with more input.
 
Terror Time said:
and what are you going to say when he's a fair chance of being 0-3 at the end of the day. Hes a flip on the Brisbane game, massive dog on the Geelong game and taking the worst of it on the North game.
Click to expand...

You should notice the first thing I said was I didn't love any of these games. I won't be betting any of them and part of being a 1/2 decent sports better is knowing when to stay away.
If you think Melbourne will fall apart without Clark take the other side but getting $2.08 on a coinflip is actually a good result.
In terms of the cats game I have just stated that if you want to back the cats you are better at backing port 1-60 points. Whats a more likely result? Cats winning 100-53 or cats winning 125-75. I know I would take the first result. I do think though that the cats do not score 120+ in this game which is what you are hoping for if you back them ATS.
The North game being the last of the 3 games shows how much confidence I have in it being that I said I don't like any of them. I have also said that backing North outright is probably a better than with the start. North tend to win or lose big but since this was an ATS thread I game my tips with the starts.
I could go any combo from 0-3 to 3-0. Neither result makes be a great or terrible punter. I actually think the chance of going 0-3 hers is better than 3-0. That is why I am not betting them but that is also way I laugh at betting over 10% of my roll on single picks as the Kelly Criterion method suggests.

On another note I have really enjoyed reading you harness thread. The results are of not much importance to me but I do like the analysis that you did about each race and why you made picks in a certain race. I do think though there were plenty of races you should have stayed away from but you seemed to wanna pick every race early on.
I will say though that I may be the worlds worst racing better. I just do not have the time to put in to it. When I was younger (10 years ago) I used to sit up and watch the replays of all the days racing on Sky and would keep notes on every horse in every race but I only did it for 6 months or so. I did make a bit of a go at it but it just took too much time away from my career. Too many late nights studying for only a small return compared to climbing the corporate ladder and increasing my earnings that way.

Best of luck to any picks but like I said the analysis and information gathering tends to be more important than any certain model. Without any knowledge whatsoever I would guess though that the best sharps in the world do not bet their entire bankroll over the course of a weekend which is what the OP is suggesting using the Criterion. If you adjust the bankroll over the course of the weekend it just means that a slow start to the weekend will result in smaller bets later on which means if you go 1-4 early than 6-2 later you will actually post a loss for the total bets that week even though you went 7-6. Most successful betters tend to bet in units and have at least a 50-100 unit bankroll
 
twarby said:
too bad you made up the price on Port 1-60
Click to expand...
This was a $1.90 when I made the post last night. Obviously it has swung a long way. The line on the Cats shifted from -44.5 to -47.5 early in the week and was bet down to $1.60 at -47.5. It is now out to $1.90 at -50.5. Like I said earlier, the amount of money on the cats has been staggering. If you had backed the cats early in the week when first posted you could now middle with with a full goal to spare by backing port +50.5.
If every other set of odds in that post were right when they were made why would I make up that one. Odds shift, obviously not always that dramatically but the amount of money bet here has only been comparable to an old day collingwood plunge by their supporters.
 
I like how you analyse things in a logical fashion.

Good luck today and i agree in most part however i'll be dissapointed if Geelong don't break 120 against that rabble which couldnt get hands on ball vs the dogs for large stretches of the game. Was thinking around the 150 mark and with so many outs for Port and coming off the bye i just can't see how Geelong don't dominate completely. I know one thing, if you are right and Port does keep it close being a bottom 4 side then i wonder what the future for Geelong holds.

They matched it with the pies, almost knocked off Sydney away in recent games and playing a depleted side at home it doesn't make sense they don't smash them.

You got me worried tho :)
 
It is at geelongs home ground but it seems everyone is struggling to judge the wind there at the moment.
Click to expand...

Haven't read this full post yet. This just caught my eye.

I think you'd be very surprised if you knew the truth about wind affecting HFA. I'm going to leave it at that. I didn't painstakingly create a weather effects database to help sharpen my competition.
 
Parramatta +2.5 @ 55% (Bet 365) LOSS

Parramatta vs Penrith UNDER 42.5 @ 55% WIN

Brumbies -4.5 @ 55% WIN

Crusaders vs Hurricanes UNDER 52.5 @ 55% WIN

West Coast -71.5 @ 60% WIN

Western Bulldogs +30.5 @ 55% LOSS

Sydney -69.5 @ 57% WIN

Richmond vs Fremantle UNDER 181.5 @ 55% LOSS

West Coast vs Gold Coast UNDER 187.5 @ 55% LOSS

Essendon vs Western Bulldogs UNDER 188.5 @ 55% LOSS

14-17 ATS
 
If you could average $1.93 odds at a 57% estimate your average recommended bet is $1076.
Right now you would have placed 31*$1076=$33356 of bets for a $26997 return leave you $3541 in your bankroll.
Click to expand...

My average ATS win % is not 57%. I don't bet a fixed bankroll. Bet size decreases as bankroll decreases (and vice versa). At busy times, I need to account for a minute by minute update of bankroll state in order to size the next series of bets. You also don't account for kelly betting simultaneous events.


I have used poker to supplement my income for over 5 years and have averaged over a 15bb/hr winrate in my local game
for at least the last 2years that I have been tracking. I use a minumum 25 buyin bankroll and split any profits very month
Click to expand...
I can nearly believe you. I'd say long term win rate at a place like the Crown would be about 8-10bb/hr at $1/$2. (Their rake is criminal). Probably around 5bb/hr at the $500 game. The $1K no limit doesn't run often enough. Bottom line is, you can't make enough at the casino per hour to make it worthwhile.
 
I find information rather than modeling in the AFL tends to key more.
Click to expand...

This is so wrong. The AFL is THE most predictable sport I have ever come across. High scoring (at regular intervals), no sticky margins (like the rugby codes or American football), and large team sizes. It's the modeler's dream.


Also, your preoccupation with multis shows a lack of understanding in maximizing expected bankroll growth. If you assume the win % you have is real, you'd be better off betting them separately to maximise +EG.

There is a big difference between EV and EG. Yes, multis have a higher EV, but actually lower EG if they are not part of an optimal solution to your series of investments.
 
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