My official betting thread

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Brett.i'll.give.you.a.certainty.
You.look.to.be.struggling.to.survive.atm...

Over
155.5.points
RUSSIA.versus.ARGENTINA.basketball

1.90
sportingbet..

i.have.it.at.99%probability

8PM/START

GET.ON
 
60+% plays: 27-24 (.529)
57+% plays: 27-22-1 (.550)
55+% plays: 29-34-1 (.460)

Overall: 83-80-2 (.509)

Current Index Number: 79
 

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i find it sad you had to create a new account to pm and ask

another losing week for the mode
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Lol. Who am I going to ask? Do you think i'm going to waste my time finding out?

I tell you what dude, whatever sad games you want to play, I can deduce this much: you are an absolute f*wit.
 
Billy Hoyle said:
He is trying to say he is down 21% from starting bank, but that cannot be possible with those numbers.
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This is about the sixth time I've said this: I'm betting using Kelly adjusted for simultaneous events. If you want further clarification as to what that means, I've addressed that difference ad nauseum throughout this thread.
 
brett128 said:
This is about the sixth time I've said this: I'm betting using Kelly adjusted for simultaneous events. If you want further clarification as to what that means, I've addressed that difference ad nauseum throughout this thread.
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Your numbers are false.

Your 60% numbers make it impossible for you to only be down 21%. I do not need clarification. I know the difference.

You started badly it seems, there is no way that your current streak sees you only 21% down.

Produce your numbers, to show if I am right or if I am wrong.
 

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Billy Hoyle said:
Your numbers are false.

Your 60% numbers make it impossible for you to only be down 21%. I do not need clarification. I know the difference.

You started badly it seems, there is no way that your current streak sees you only 21% down.

Produce your numbers, to show if I am right or if I am wrong.
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How are you figuring this out? Can you show me the calculation? I really find it hard to fathom that you actually have this thought about this, other than plucking conclusions out of your ass.

Even if you were thinking in terms of 'true' kelly (as in full kelly betting with mutually exclusive events in perfect sequence), 52.9% ATS against a -110 price equates to just over break even for this subset of '60%' bets.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that another troll has entered the room....

That's TWO posters in one day that have just registered to post drivel in this thread.
 
Newcastle vs Cronulla UNDER 39.5/38.5 @ 60%

(I got this at a mix of 3 books considering i'm betting 15.12% on bankroll on this game; being the only betting event tomorrow)

Cronulla +2 @ 55%

(4.62% of bankroll on this)

N.B: The difference between 39.5 and 38.5 is 0.7% in win%. So the play at 38.5 is a 59% play.
 
brett128 said:
How are you figuring this out? Can you show me the calculation? I really find it hard to fathom that you actually have this thought about this, other than plucking conclusions out of your arse.

Even if you were thinking in terms of 'true' kelly (as in full kelly betting with mutually exclusive events in perfect sequence), 52.9% ATS against a -110 price equates to just over break even for this subset of '60%' bets.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that another troll has entered the room....

That's TWO posters in one day that have just registered to post drivel in this thread.
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I am no troll. I asked for you to provide your numbers, week by week will be suffice.

All you decided to do was turn the question back to me to show you numbers. So you did not answer the question, rather deflected it.

This shows that you either don't know your numbers, or are unwilling to actually front up with them because you know the -21% figure is fantasy.

But you can keep calling me a troll, both you and I know the real situation, and the ones who don't can make up their own minds.
 
I am no troll. I asked for you to provide your numbers, week by week will be suffice.
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Every single bet is on this thread, week by week.

Go take a look, figure out timings for all the events, figure out what I have bet simultaneously, and then come to an approximation of how my betting run would have eventuated.

Then let me know if it's not -21%.

This is the last time I talk about this with you. If you don't believe me, I don't give a f*ck. Look at the exposed record, and make your own judgment. I'm not selling tips to anyone, so I don't understand why everyone likes to gob off. As far as I know, i've not seen anyone track their plays on this board like I do.
 
brett128 said:
Every single bet is on this thread, week by week.

Go take a look, figure out timings for all the events, figure out what I have bet simultaneously, and then come to an approximation of how my betting run would have eventuated.

Then let me know if it's not -21%.

This is the last time I talk about this with you. If you don't believe me, I don't give a f*ck. Look at the exposed record, and make your own judgment. I'm not selling tips to anyone, so I don't understand why everyone likes to gob off. As far as I know, i've not seen anyone track their plays on this board like I do.
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Yes, your bets are on the thread.

No prices, but even at your rudimentary price of 1.91, your numbers do not stack up.

You even admitted to only getting down at 1.75 on a 60% bet earlier today.

It may not be simple to others who do not use Kelly or understand it's fundamentals, but to those that do, the charade is up.

I don't mind if you do not want to continue to discuss, that says more about you than it does about me. That is something I do not think people here will have trouble understanding.
 
brett128 said:
As far as I know, i've not seen anyone track their plays on this board like I do.
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Any number of threads covering sports over a season or a carnival on this board do exactly as you do. Some even show a profit. A couple of examples below;

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-nfl-2010-11-thread.742090/page-43#post-19975498
[url]http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/nfl-is-back-for-2011-12.852259/page-29#post-23307982[/URL]
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/la-vuelta-a-españa-2011.859350/page-13
 
No prices, but even at your rudimentary price of 1.91, your numbers do not stack up.
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Why don't you SHOW me like I asked? Not one person that has put any claim forward on this thread can actually provide any calculations to anything.

All the bets are there, why don't you work it out for yourself? Use a $1.91 price, work out where 100 units would have ended up. I want to see what you come up with. It seems that you like to gob off without putting in hard work, like many other people/trolls here.

You even admitted to only getting down at 1.75 on a 60% bet earlier today.
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This is the only time I've ever got down at an alternative line. And you like to conveniently forget that MANY prices I get are better than -110.
 
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