My official betting thread

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Donkson said:
then post them.
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This

Brett excusing all the shit going on here you seem like a relatively intelligent person. Why get in to arguments with the trolls and idiots who wish they had $5 to their name to bet?? Post the prices you get, it is not that hard and gives your bets some legitimacy.

Also if the other poster earlier is right and that NRL line opened at -5.5 and you got on at -10 with 60%....what gives? Why didn't you identify the early line and bet (and win) that instead of giving the books 4.5 more points to play with and losing it??
 
brett128 said:
Why don't you SHOW me like I asked? Not one person that has put any claim forward on this thread can actually provide any calculations to anything.

All the bets are there, why don't you work it out for yourself? Use a $1.91 price, work out where 100 units would have ended up. I want to see what you come up with. It seems that you like to gob off without putting in hard work, like many other people/trolls here.



This is the only time I've ever got down at an alternative line. And you like to conveniently forget that MANY prices I get are better than -110.
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This is where you shoot yourself in the foot.

You are using prices above 1.91 to inflate your current index figure, and there is nothing to prove that you got set at the higher price.

Only your word.

The same word where you said you bet full kelly for the last 12 months. The same word where you also then say that you don't use full kelly, you use a watered down version, the simultaneous even calculator.

You still have not produced the numbers. I guess you don't even need to, you could just dodge the questions asked all day long.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Any number of threads covering sports over a season or a carnival on this board do exactly as you do. Some even show a profit. A couple of examples below;

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-nfl-2010-11-thread.742090/page-43#post-19975498
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/nfl-is-back-for-2011-12.852259/page-29#post-23307982
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/la-vuelta-a-españa-2011.859350/page-13
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Those threads are nothing like this one.

They are in profit.
 

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mazarouchi said:
This

Brett excusing all the shit going on here you seem like a relatively intelligent person. Why get in to arguments with the trolls and idiots who wish they had $5 to their name to bet?? Post the prices you get, it is not that hard and gives your bets some legitimacy.

Also if the other poster earlier is right and that NRL line opened at -5.5 and you got on at -10 with 60%....what gives? Why didn't you identify the early line and bet (and win) that instead of giving the books 4.5 more points to play with and losing it??
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The simple answer?

Brett would have no more of a clue about that being a 60% probability than you or I would.

Poker starategy, where the percentages are actually known, does not cross over to sports betting.

There are no fixed percentages in our sports. The models he has come up with are next to useless, as they cannot accurately predict the outcome of a game of football, and using kelly, in any form, to bet these is asking for trouble.

As this thread can atest to.
 
Piss Poor said:
but I was reading tab sport bet rules that says in a result of draw you get half of face value,

I know the draw is an option but that's why the odds for a draw is high, that might be just for the option to bet on it, don't see why that would effect my bet.
Why would anyone bet on soccer if that's the case, you have two chances to lose and one chance to win,

Think I will get half of the odds.

PS this is my first and last time I bet on soccer.
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A draw in AFL doesn't pay half either you pillock.
 
mazarouchi said:
According to Brett it's half a win o_O
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I don't know anyone who bets sports that doesn't think of a push as half a win. In the USA pushes are lot more common as line are often -3 etc in the nfl. On Australian sports 95% of the time it is a half point spread.
If you want to argue picks or methodology as I have with Brett than feel free but people who just troll others just seems that you have nothing better or more intelligent to do.
As for the who ont think a draw pays half that s exactly what happens. A few years back I backed the golden boot in a soccer tournament @$3.5 that finished as a 4 way tie. How do you think they paid out? Refund everyone? Pay out the I amount for everyone? No they just divide the winning odds by the amount of results. Ie my $3.5/4 ended up a loss. One of the winners was $20 to start. Paid out 5-1 Really not that hard to figure out.
 
You lose just as much as you win in a push (i.e. nothing) so how the **** you can call it just a half win is beyond me.

I must not be as smart as the great sports bettor of Australia bjfromurmum and his accomplice the system king brett123.5 (I'm taking 4.5 away from your username, since the books took that and your money earlier this afternoon)
 
who cares about how he grades a push? you don't win/lose from it so it's irrelevant.

units won/lost is what people want to see, but he doesn't post how many units he's betting on each play, or odds, so it has no use whatsoever.
 
Credit where credit is due.

At least Brett is putting his tips out there and is being transparent enough.

I think he is learning through this process and quickly realising that what is good in theory does not always work so well in practice.

Then again, punting is not an easy gig and its a lot easier being an armchair critic.
 
mazarouchi said:
You lose just as much as you win in a push (i.e. nothing) so how the **** you can call it just a half win is beyond me.

I must not be as smart as the great sports bettor of Australia bjfromurmum and his accomplice the system king brett123.5 (I'm taking 4.5 away from your username, since the books took that and your money earlier this afternoon)
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Yes I must be his accomplice since I have mostly argued and questioned him throughout this thread. Good to see you have been paying attention though.
 

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asanque said:
Credit where credit is due.

At least Brett is putting his tips out there and is being transparent enough.

I think he is learning through this process and quickly realising that what is good in theory does not always work so well in practice.

Then again, punting is not an easy gig and its a lot easier being an armchair critic.
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90% of his critics in this thread have used this board for years and have posted tips.

100% of those 90% haven't been condescending pricks telling everyone how good they are whilst losing 21% of their bankroll.
 
Credit where credit is due.

6-8 weeks into this and he is still 'getting down' with local books, betting in the thousands, on lines that move in his direction.

Yet to be limited or shut down.


Bravo.
 
The models he has come up with are next to useless, as they cannot accurately predict the outcome of a game of football
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This is one of the most moronic statements I have ever come across.

What do you use to predict the outcome of a game? Consult an oracle? Decipher what the tea leaves say at the bottom of a cup?

I get ridiculed for using a 'model', but I don't think many people here even pause to consider how this is different to their own 'feel-based' handicapping. Anyone and everyone must agree on this; that regardless of what we do to come up with a prediction, we:

1. take on information that we believe is pertinent to handicapping the game
2. process that information in some way
3. apply a weighting/value to all aspects of the information that we have
4. come to a final conclusion

This is intuitively what EVERYONE is doing in their own unique way. So what does a model do? IT DOES THE SAME THING.

It externally re-creates a process that would have been done 'in your head', had you the capacity to process the importance of x amount of variables and apply a weighting to them; without bias, and without human error.
 
Also if the other poster earlier is right and that NRL line opened at -5.5 and you got on at -10 with 60%....what gives? Why didn't you identify the early line and bet (and win) that instead of giving the books 4.5 more points to play with and losing it??
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Yes this is close to being correct, the line opened up at -6 when I first checked on Tuesday (I find it completely plausible that it may have opened at -5.5).

There is two reasons why I didn't bet this.

1. I can't tie up all my capital in early plays. And most importantly,

2. My NRL model is entered into Bayesian combination with other NRL models later in the week. I've been working on the NRL with two other people for about a month now. They have their own methodologies of looking at the game. We usually combined our win %'s to come up with a combined win % just prior to the game.

At -6, my model signalled this as a 55% play. By game time at -10 (but now including weather) I rated Bulldogs -10 at 0.53 to cover. The other methods rated Bulldogs -10 at 0.55 and 0.53 respectively. This combines for a win % of 0.608.

Now before I get harebrained questions along the lines of "your so stupid, how do probabilities of 0.53, 0.55 and 0.53 join together to make 0.608? Please spend the time looking into the tenets of Bayesian combination before you post some drivel.
 
According to Brett it's half a win
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Righto smart ass, answer me this (I've asked this qustion before, with no answer from anyone trying to refute me):

You make 100 bets ATS, you go 0-0-100. What is your win % ATS?

You haven't lost any money, but you haven't made any money either. So what's your answer going to be?

If anything, it would be slightly BETTER than half a win (0.5), because a 50% ATS record would imply a loss has occurred.
 
You are using prices above 1.91 to inflate your current index figure, and there is nothing to prove that you got set at the higher price.
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My current index figure is NOT arbitrary. This is my ACTUAL bankroll fluctuation. So OF COURSE it takes account all prices I got down at.
 
you use a statistical system designed for the amalgamation of imperfect models and then use this to bet full kelly which needs as close as perfect inputs as possible to not risk over betting and kill your bankroll???
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What's your argument here? That I use a model, or that I use kelly?

Both arguments have been addressed many times by myself in this thread. I'm not going around in circles. I'd rather talk to a wall (who would be more receptive to what i'm saying).
 
brett128 said:
What's your argument here? That I use a model, or that I use kelly?

Both arguments have been addressed many times by myself in this thread. I'm not going around in circles. I'd rather talk to a wall (who would be more receptive to what i'm saying).
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you brought up using bayesian combination, from my limited memory of statistics and backed up by a 5 sec google search it involves combining models with imperfect inputs into a less flawed overall output

assuming I'm on the right page, you don't find this inherently risky to then bet full kelly???
 
I understand the partial probabilities you're going on about with NRL. That's fine - thank you for explaining.

However it just goes to show you have zero confidence in your own "modelling" when you regard -6 as 0.55 and watch the line go out and out while you wait for the other two. Eventually when you get results from them the line has moved out 4.5 (!!) and your own modelling decreases to just 53%.

I can only imagine your results on 53% plays when 2 pages back you listed this probability for 55% plays...
55+% plays: 29-34-1 (.460)
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You have no confidence in your own modelling.

brett128 said:
I'd rather talk to a wall (who would be more receptive to what i'm saying).
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Please keep donating to the corporates, it makes life 10x easier for the rest of us when they make profit off the likes of you.
 
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